Tag: Documentaries

Oscar Predictions: NAZA

Two years after No Other Land won Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars, filmmakers Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor could be in contention again for NAZA. Shot in Tel Aviv during the ongoing Gaza war, it premiered in Venice and will also play the New York Film Festival.

While I normally don’t mention the length of standing ovations at screenings, it’s worth noting that NAZA appears to have the longest one in Venice’s history at 24 minutes. Critical acclaim is high with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 96 Metacritic. NAZA joins Once Upon a Time in Harlem, American Doctor, and You Can See Everything as the likeliest docs to make the Academy’s cut and a threat to win. I’ll also note that the doc branch is capable of shocking omissions in past years but NAZA seems like a title that won’t miss. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Musk

Does Musk smell like an Oscar contender? The documentary is bound to be one of the higher profile genre entries of 2026 with Alex Gibney directing a near four hour look at Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a lightning rod for controversy.

It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend and was a bit overshadowed by the unexpected debut of You Can See Everything, another buzzy doc that made a splash at Telluride. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 77 on Metacritic.

Gibney’s Taxi to the Dark Side was the Documentary Feature victor in 2007 and he has helmed numerous acclaimed flicks on the big and small screen. Musk could definitely get in the five nominated docs, but I think it’s less likely than others like Once Upon a Time in Harlem and the aforementioned Everything.

Musk could miss Documentary Feature and still get into Original Song where David Byrne has written and sung the track “Let Me Sell You a Dream”. The former Talking Heads frontman is an Academy recipient for his score to 1987’s The Last Emperor and was nominated four years back in Original Song for “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: You Can See Everything

The Telluride Film Festival was abuzz with word that a nearly three hour documentary screening would be unveiled yesterday from A24. That doc turned out to be You Can See Everything from Canadian comedian Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim (also doing the fest circuit for directing Primetime).

In Everything, the filmmakers are granted access to Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she begins serving an 11 year prison sentence for fraud. While Holmes’s story and legal activity has been covered in an HBO doc and in the acclaimed limited series The Dropout with Amanda Seyfried, Everything received kudos at Telluride. It promises to be one of the highest profile docs of 2026 when it comes out in October.

The early WOM and anticipated wide exposure could certainly mean it grabs one of the five slots in Best Documentary Feature. I will warn that this branch of the Academy can be unpredictable. I’m not sure Everything is ahead of my current frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Harlem and perhaps not others like American Doctor. I am sure that it has one of the creepiest teasers I’ve witnessed that isn’t a horror flick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: American Doctor

Documentarian Poh Si Teng’s feature-length debut American Doctor follows three American physicians into Gaza and it is being heralded as a viscerally emotional and effective work. Like most docs that generate awards buzz, it debuted at the Sundance Film Festival and is in limited release as of this past weekend.

Since its Park City premiere, it played South by Southwest and other fests to additional acclaim. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 87. This is near the top of possibilities for recognition from the Academy. In my latest predictions post published yesterday, I ranked it second to Once Upon a Time in Harlem. While the Academy is known for high-profile snubs when it comes to documentaries, expect to see plenty of prognosticators prescribing a nomination for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The History of Concrete

All five nominated pictures for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards premiered at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival. So it’s obvious that we look to the 2026’s fest for possibilities at the 99th ceremony. I already wrote about Once Upon a Time in Harlem (which could be a frontrunner) and The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist.

Attention is now turned to The History of Concrete from John Wilson. The host of the HBO docuseries How To with John Wilson, the filmmaker’s feature-length directorial debut has a fascinating concept. Wilson applies lessons learned from a workshop about making a Hallmark movie to attempting a documentary about what the title suggests.

Sundance critics appreciated it to the scores of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic with particular praise going to its comedic aspects. Magnolia Pictures snatched up distribution rights. Academy voters could focus their attention on more serious docs, but Concrete at least has the foundation to be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist

Following its Sundance premiere in January, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist is in actual theaters this weekend. Daniel Roher, who made the 2022 Oscar winning documentary Navalny, co-directs with Charlie Tyrell. Per the title, the Focus Features pickup centers on a hot button issue and should generate a fair amount of attention for its genre.

Whether that translates to any awards focus is a trickier question. While Rotten Tomatoes is at an optimistic 88%, the 57 Metacritic is more glass half empty. The Academy’s branch of doc voters often don’t go with the highest profile titles and the mixed critical reaction can’t help much. That said, I’m sure its distributor will attempt to keep it visible months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Producers Pick Their Battle

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) followed the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA and bestowed their best picture honors to Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another last night. It occurred during a weekend where Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has two shots to interrupt Battle‘s momentum. The second comes tonight at the Actor Awards (formerly known as SAG) where Sinners has a stronger chance to win the top Ensemble prize.

Even if it does, Battle‘s road to Oscar glory could be undeniable at this point with victories at the aforementioned precursors. A reminder that PGA and the Academy’s BP have matched five times in a row. I correctly called the biggest category and did the same in the animated race with KPop Demon Hunters. That Netflix phenomenon has also landed trophies at earlier ceremonies including the Globes and Critics Choice. The only place it didn’t was BAFTA where it wasn’t eligible and Zootopia 2 emerged. Yet that Disney sequel will likely be #2 to KPop in Academy tabulations.

The only surprise at PGA came in documentary where My Mom Jayne, Mariska Hargitay’s exploration of her relationship with mother Jayne Mansfield, was the winner. I went with another Netflix hit The Perfect Neighbor. Jayne is not among the doc quintet at the Oscars. Neighbor, seen as the Academy favorite, definitely looks vulnerable and I wouldn’t discount BAFTA recipient Mr. Nobody Against Putin or The Alabama Solution.

Keep an eye on the blog for my recap of the Actor Awards later tonight!

Oscar Predictions: Once Upon a Time in Harlem

The easiest prediction to make for the 98th Academy Awards is that the winner of Best Documentary Feature is a Sundance Film Festival premiere. Why? All five nominated titles (The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor) were initially screened at the 2025 Park City event. The year before that, it was 4 of the 5 contending Sundance docs.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem is one you’ll be hearing about. David Greaves directs a project that was started over five decades ago by his late father William (a celebrated filmmaker himself). It focuses on a 1970s gathering of 1920s/30s artists from the NYC neighborhood. Early reviews are raves with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 96 on Metacritic. Called a vitally important historical document, this could be nominated and it may emerge victorious.

Having said that, the documentary branch from the Academy can be a head scratching group to nail down. I only managed 1 for 5 in my forecast for this year’s race. Even with that caveat, it would be shocking if Harlem is not in the conversation for the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Mistress Dispeller

Mistress Dispeller premiered at the Venice Film Festival all the way back in September 2024, but was released stateside in October of this year. From filmmaker Elizabeth Lo, the documentary focuses on a title character hired to break up a Chinese woman’s husband’s extramarital affair.

Among the 15 shortlisted docs in contention for the Academy Awards, Dispeller is one of the genre titles not in the politically charged space. Perhaps there’s a lane for one or two of them to make the cut. Reviews are solid with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic. If it gets into the quintet, it would be a surprise though the doc voters can be volatile. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Coexistence, My Ass!

Coexistence, My Ass is one of the 15 shortlisted documentaries for the 98th Academy Awards as it tries to make the quintet after premiering at Sundance nearly a year ago. From filmmaker Amber Fares, it focuses on Israeli comedian and activist Noam Shuster-Eliassi’s one-woman show.

With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, Coexistence must coexist with numerous politically themed docs in the running and some are higher profile including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and Apocalypse in the Tropics. The voting branch for this genre is unpredictable and any of the 15 contenders could get in. However, predicting this one in your projected five would be an upset selection. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…