My top 25 personal favorite cinematic performances by the alumni of Saturday Night Live continues with part 3 covering numbers 15-11! If you missed the first two posts, you can find them right here:
15. Dan Aykroyd & John Belushi, The Blues Brothers (1980)
This is the first spin-off movie from the show and it’s certainly one of the best. Aykroyd and Belushi sold out stadiums with their musical act and their car chase friendly comedy was a major box office success as they embarked on their mission from God.
14. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (2019)
Now is the time to address what many might consider to be oversights on the list. This is the only Sandler entry. That’s right – no Billy Madison or Happy Gilmore or The Wedding Singer or any of his other blockbusters. While I certainly admire some of his work in those features, my Sandler preferences lie with his rare dramatic work. I could have given the nod to 2002’s Punch-Drunk Love, but last year’s Gems absolutely floored me and I believe it represents his best performance yet on the big screen.
13. Bill Murray, Lost in Translation (2003)
Speaking of comedic actors doing less humorous work, Murray nabbed his only Oscar nomination here. The Sofia Coppola directed critically acclaimed pic perfectly pairs its star with Scarlett Johansson and is further evidence of just how versatile Murray is. And he’s not done on this list…
12. Chevy Chase, Caddyshack (1980)
Be the ball.
At his best, no one pulls off smarmy charm better than Mr. Chase. I could have gone with Fletch as the selection, but he’s at his smarmy peak in this now revered classic.
11. Christopher Guest, Waiting for Guffman (1997)
Guest was only on SNL for one season alongside Billy Crystal and Martin Short. He had already starred in the fantastic mockumentary This is Spinal Tap, which set the standard for that type of film. Guest would go on to direct his own treasured pics in the genre including Best in Show and A Mighty Wind. As far as his own performances, my favorite is his dedicated community theater director Corky St. Clair.
We’ll get to the top ten in short order! Until then…
When the brothers Safdie (Ben and Josh) made Good Time in 2017, the thriller centering on low-life crime figures contained segments that showed the duo was capable of creating something special. Clearly influenced by similar grimy pics in the 1970s, that film gave Robert Pattinson a role that drew him far away from a sullen romantic vampire and is primarily responsible for his current career trajectory. However, I found Good Time better in spots than as a cohesive whole. Their follow-up is Uncut Gems and it’s the “something special” that was hinted at in their predecessor.
In many ways, it stays in the Good Time lane. The setting is again the Big Apple. The characters are again a level of bottom dwelling criminals who aren’t exactly top level at their professions. And like Pattinson, Gems allows a very famous actor to try something different. Here it’s Adam Sandler as Howard Ratner, who owns a diamond store and is a degenerate gambler. In Howard’s universe, there’s not a problem that he can’t seem to make worse.
His family life is in a constant state of chaos as his wife (Idina Menzel) is ready to freeze him out and his brother-in-law (Eric Bogosian) is a loan shark that Howard owes money to. Then there’s his girlfriend Julie (Julia Fox, in her feature debut) who works for him and is a consistent source of stress. Demany (Lakeith Stanfield) is his business associate charged with bringing in celebrities and high rollers to the store. He finds one in Boston Celtics superstar Kevin Garnett, who plays himself and does so memorably.
When Howard gets his hands on a rare Ethiopian opal, it sets off a series of frenzied events. Garnett is obsessed with purchasing the rarity while Howard looks to cash in with it at auction. The hoped for financial windfall means he can pay his off his considerable debts. Yet Howard just cannot help himself as one scheme simply leads to the next one, including betting on his NBA client for large sums of money.
Like Good Time, the pacing here is relentless. For over two hours, the screenplay and direction immerse us in Howard’s out of control daily existence. It’s exhilarating and Sandler deserves a lot of the credit. These days, it’s rare to see the performer in anything other than middling to less than middling Netflix comedies. Seeing him rise to the challenge in more dramatic material shouldn’t come as a huge surprise as we saw it in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Punch-Drunk Love nearly two decades ago. It’s just been a while. Howard is onscreen nearly the entire running time and for good reason. You can’t take your eyes off him.
The lead’s remarkable work is accentuated by his supporting cast. This especially applies to the women in his life as both Menzel and Fox are given notable scenes reacting to Howard’s never-ending foibles. By the time the credits roll, one could argue Uncut Gems has the happiest ending it could have if you really ponder it. This is a tale of addiction in a highly stylized setting where Howard just can’t become the winner he pines to be. His turmoil is interrupted by brief glimpses of happiness and we witness a couple of great ones. In the era that the Safdies are paying homage, Al Pacino or Robert De Niro might have played Howard. Sandler gets the job here and knocks it out the park. It’s something special.
Well, folks, the Oscar nominations were out bright and early this morning. Per usual, there were some genuine surprises and omissions that will have Twitter buzzing right up until the ceremony February 9th.
Readers of the blog know that I spend months trying to put the puzzle together on who and what will be nominated. My results today? Out of the 109 predictions made, 88 of them came to fruition. In the eight biggest categories, there were four that I got all nominees correct… including Best Picture. Truth be told, I’m pretty pleased with my results!
Before we break it down race by race, some general comments. As for movies that had a disappointing wakeup call, there were numerous entries that had possibilities in the major categories and beyond. Those left on the cutting room floor include Booksmart, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Uncut Gems, and Us. Another movie barely left standing was Rocketman. I had it pegged for five nominations, but it managed just a single mention in Original Song.
For the films that did make it in, Joker scored the most nominations (somewhat of a surprise) with 11 followed by The Irishman, 1917, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with 10 apiece.
With some of my analysis here, you’ll see strong indications on what my winner forecast might be. Expect that post to be up a couple of days before the ceremony.
And with that, let’s break it down!
Best Picture
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 9/9 (!)
Analysis: For Oscar prognosticators, just getting the correct number of films that are nominated is an accomplishment. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10. Nine felt correct for some time and I’ve had these ones predicted for several weeks. As for a winner, I feel six of them have at least decent to strong shots. I’m nowhere near ready to crown a victor.
Best Director
The Nominees: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Todd Phillips (Joker), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: It was Phillips riding the Joker wave over Greta Gerwig for Little Women. Like Picture, this race feels wide open and it could come down to Joon-Ho vs. Mendes.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: With so many contenders in the running, going 4 for 5 here feels like more of an accomplishment that naming the Best Pic nominees. It was Pryce getting a slot over Taron Egerton in Rocketman. Banderas and Pryce are first time nominees. It looks like Phoenix could sweep awards season and that gives him his first win.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: 100% here and like Best Actor, there’s a strong front runner with Zellweger. If so, she’d pick up her second statue after being named Supporting Actress for 2003’s Cold Mountain.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: What a list of legends we have here! There’s some interesting tidbits to share. Every nominee here has won an Oscar. Yet it’s been some time since most were nominated – Pesci since 1990 for GoodFellas, Pacino since 1992 for his double nod with Scent of a Woman and Glengarry Glen Ross, Hopkins since 1997 (Amistad), and rather shockingly, Hanks… who has his first nomination since 2000 with Cast Away. Pitt, on the other hand, is the most recent nominee for his acting (2011’s Moneyball). However, he’s the only one of the five to never win the Oscar for his performances (he does have an Oscar for producing 2013’s 12 Years a Slave). Got all that? And here’s the last word on that… Pitt seems destined to join their company in February as a winner.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Now we get to the first genuine shocker and that’s Jennifer Lopez not being nominated for Hustlers. Bates takes her spot. Lopez was generally seen as close to a sure thing for recognition and I’ve had her listed at #2 behind Dern for weeks. This only helps Dern for her first podium walk.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: This has looked like the final five for a while now and this could represent the best chance for a major win for The Irishman. That said, I wouldn’t count Jojo or Joker completely out.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: No love for The Farewell here with 1917 getting in. Tarantino is a soft favorite over Marriage Story and Parasite.
Best Internation Feature Film
The Nominees: Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite
How I Did: 3/5
Les Mis, Pain, and Parasite were automatics. The last two spots were tricky to forecast and I had Atlantics and Those Who Remained instead. Honeyland pulled off a notable achievement by being named here and in Documentary. Bottom line: this is the easiest race of them all to project. It’s going to be Parasite.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Klaus, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Next big surprise as Disney’s Frozen II was frozen out with Klaus taking the spot. Toy Story 4 is the favorite, but I don’t discount the possibility of an upset here (with Dragon and Body as potential spoilers).
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: The documentary branch is always unpredictable and that proved accurate this morning. Apollo 11 and One Child Nation were the two I had in over The Cave and The Edge of Democracy. Netflix’s American Factory (the first doc from Barack and Michelle Obama’s production company) appears to be the leader of the pack.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: I had Ford v Ferrari over Lighthouse. This looks to be a win for 1917.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Surprises here with Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman being ignored in favor of The Irishman and Joker. I even thought the two I predicted had real shots at winning. This one could be between Women and Hollywood.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Now this one is interesting! I had Hollywood in and not Jojo. Why is Editing important? Of any category at the Oscars, a nomination here means a lot to the eventual Best Picture winner. The last movie to win the big prize and not be nominated for Editing is 2014’s Birdman. And that’s really an asterisk since it was filmed in one long continuous shot (though the same basically holds true for 1917). Before that, the last Best Picture winner recipient to not score a nod here? You have to go all the way back to 1980’s Ordinary People. In other words, the snub for Hollywood here could mean something. Perhaps it will be an outlier. Yet I feel it’s key for ballot guessers to know that only two BP winners haven’t been recognized here in the past 40 years…
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, 1917
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Hollywood and Rocketman out and Maleficent and 1917 in. Expect this to be the sole win for Bombshell.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: Back to perfection! Joker has gotten the precursor love, but 1917 is a threat.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4, “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman, “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough, “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II, “Stand Up” from Harriet
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: This category is a head scratcher. I had “Spirit” from The Lion King and “Glasgow” from Wild Rose in over the Toy Story and Breakthrough tracks. This should be a contest between Elton John’s Rocketman tune and the Frozen song. However, both films were significantly snubbed in other categories as mentioned above. The one thing I do know… this branch clearly loves tracks that begin with the letter I.
Best Production Design
The Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Had Little Women over Parasite. This could definitely be a W for Hollywood.
Best Sound Editing
The Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Had Avengers: Endgame over Joker. In both sound races, this should be between Ford and 1917.
Best Sound Mixing
The Nominees: Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
How I Did: 3/5
Had Rocketman and Skywalker over Astra and Hollywood. See Sound Editing above.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: Avengers: Endgame, The Irishman, The Lion King, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’m glad this category is last alphabetically so I can end on a high note! I lean Lion King, but that could change.
And that does it for my nominations recap! As stated, expect winner predictions shortly before February 9th!
There are years when the Golden Globes don’t seem to have much of an impact on my Oscar predictions. That could still hold true at the end of the day, but last night’s ceremony did so and that especially applies to the Best Actor derby and my numeric rankings in general with other top races. Let us count the ways…
The surprising wins for 1917 as Best Drama and Sam Mendes as its director is a real story. The timing could not be more perfect as the World War I action drama opens wide this weekend. In Picture, it rises from 5th to 4th. For Mendes, he goes from 4th to 3rd and that’s at the expense of Martin Scorsese.
Joaquin Phoenix hits the #1 slot in the ultra competitive Best Actor competition over Adam Driver, who’s been first for many weeks. Perhaps more significantly, Taron Egerton’s victory over Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Murphy in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes places in my predicted five for the first time (he goes from 10th to 5th!). I’ve also put Antonio Banderas back in and that means Robert De Niro and Jonathan Pryce are on the outside looking in.
In Original Screenplay, Quentin Tarantino vaults to #1 over Noah Baumbach.
And an important programming note… this is the last time you will see my weekly predictions for 2019 in this manner. With nominations out a week from today, I will have a FINAL predictions post up this weekend (likely Friday or perhaps Saturday). As of this moment, here’s how I have it all shaking out!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Parasite (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Farewell (PR: 12)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
13. Knives Out (PR: 14)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 15)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 9)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
5. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 9)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
10. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell (PR: 7)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 8)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
10. Bombshell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Dolemite Is My Name
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Corpus Christi (PR: 6)
5. Atlantics (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beanpole (PR: 7)
7. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
8. The Painted Bird (PR: 5)
9. Honeyland (PR: 8)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Funan (PR: 9)
7. Klaus (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
9. Abominable (PR: 7)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. For Sama (PR: 3)
3. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Midnight Family (PR: 9)
8. Maiden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
10. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
7. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
8. Parasite (PR: 5)
9. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marriage Story (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Judy (PR: 6)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 7)
8. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Apollo 11
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 7)
7. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 10)
9. Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 7)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
8. “Letter to My Godfather” from The Black Godfather (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Speechless” from Aladdin
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 7)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Rocketman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
7. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 8)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Parasite, Rocketman
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Corpus Christi, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
There are two weeks to go before Oscar nominations come out and it’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions. There’s not much in the way of major movement in the top races, but the numbers have shifted in some cases. Let’s break it down:
In Picture, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood vaults to #1 in what looks like a three-way competition between it, The Irishman, and Parasite.
Bong-Joon Ho rises to first in Director over Tarantino and Scorsese.
There is a change in Actor as Jonathan Pryce is back in over Antonio Banderas. Pain and Glory takes another hit in Original Screenplay as I’ve taken it out and put Knives Out back in.
Check in later this week for my predictions on winners for the Golden Globes, which airs this Sunday. The plan is to have Oscar predictions next Monday and then a post up on Saturday (January 11) with final predictions on the races.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
14. Knives Out (PR: 13)
15. Uncut Gems (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 4)
7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 10)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 8)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 7)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 6)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: Not Rankled)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
7. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
10. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
7. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. 1917 (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Bombshell (PR: 7)
10. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Uncut Gems
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 4)
5. The Painted Bird (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Corpus Christi (PR: 7)
7. Beanpole (PR: 5)
8. Honeyland (PR: 8)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 7)
9. Funan (PR: 10)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. For Sama (PR: 4)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
8. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
9. Midnight Family (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maiden
Aquarela
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Joker (PR: 3)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 7)
9. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judy (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. 1917 (PR: 4)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Apollo 11 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Knives Out
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 3)
3. Judy (PR: 2)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
7. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 10)
8. Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
10. 1917 (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 5)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
10. Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Us
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
4. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 5)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
7. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 9)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 10)
10. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 4)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Rocketman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 4)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 9)
9. The Irishman (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
8. Joker (PR: 6)
9. The Irishman (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 4)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. The Irishman (PR: 1)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 10)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
And that equates to these films getting the following numbers of nods:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women, Parasite
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Painted Bird, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
One of the welcome cinematic storylines of 2019 involves two beloved Saturday Night Live vets who accomplished some of their finest film work, have garnered Oscar attention, and both returned to the show that made them after many years away.
I’m referring to Eddie Murphy and Adam Sandler and they both get spots in my Year of 2019 posts. Murphy had been absent from the silver screen since 2016’s drama Mr. Church. Over the past several years, he was known more for his family comedies then the raunchy comedian that sold out stadiums in the 1980s. 2019 saw a return to form with Netflix’s Dolemite Is My Name, his critically hailed recounting of Rudy Ray Moore’s contributions to movies. The pic has given Murphy his best reviews since 2006’s Dreamgirls and gotten him back into the Oscar conversation. We also witnessed the legendary performer host SNL for the first time in 35 years. 2020 will showcase Murphy returning to stand-up (something he hasn’t done since the late 1980s) and reprising his Prince Akeem character and others in Coming 2 America, which again teams him with Netflix and Dolemite director Craig Brewer.
Mr. Sandler also hit the 30 Rock building to headline SNL. He hadn’t been back in that role since being fired from the show in the mid 90s and embarking on his own wildly successful film career. The SNL gig saw him perform a humorous and touching tribute to cast mate Chris Farley. His partnership with Netflix includes this year’s Murder Mystery with Jennifer Aniston. There’s already a sequel planned for it. And the critical kudos came with crime thriller Uncut Gems, which opens wide on Christmas. That pic, from directors Ben and Josh Safdie, has Sandler picking up awards precursors and, like Murphy, in the mix for Academy attention. He’ll return to his preferred streaming service next year with Hubie Halloween.
For SNL, 2019 will be remembered as a time when two of their most famous alumni returned. For Murphy and Sandler, it’s a time when they gave us some of the most memorable onscreen work.
Veering far away from the Netflix comedies like Murder Mystery that he’s become known for over the past few years, Adam Sandler headlines the critically heralded crime thriller Uncut Gems and it expands nationwide on Christmas, The pic comes from directors Ben and Josh Safdie and the supporting cast includes future NBA hall of famer Kevin Garnett, Idina Menzel, Lakeith Stanfield, Julia Fox, pop star The Weeknd, and Eric Bogosian.
Since its initial screenings at the Telluride Film Festival in late August, Gems has shone brightly with reviewers. It stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and Sandler has picked up early awards precursors and could be in the running for an Oscar nomination. How will this translate to box office dollars? For the past two weeks, the film has been in limited release in five venues and performed well with $1 million in its coffers.
Whether or not Gems translates widely to mainstream viewers across the country is a trickier question. Even with Sandler’s involvement, this may cater more towards the art house circuit as opposed to audiences looking for holiday options. I’ll project that this hits mid single digits from Friday to Sunday and low double digits for the extended five-day rollout.
Uncut Gems opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $11 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
It’s been another action packed week on the Oscar predicting front! Since last Monday, the SAG Award nominations came out and today – we saw numerous categories reveal their shortlists. This is when races are whittled down to 10 or 15 possible nominees and it applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. As always, there were surprises. These include “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats unlisted from Song, The Irishman absent from Makeup and Hairstyling, and Ad Astra and The Aeronauts left out for Visual Effects. You’ll notice that in these categories – there’s more dropouts than normal and that’s why.
As for the top line races, we have changes:
I am finally estimating that nine movies will be nominated for Best Picture instead of ten and that puts The Two Popes on the outside looking in.
The bad news for Popes continues as it’s Leonardo Dicaprio in and Jonathan Pryce out. I still have Robert De Niro clinging to the five spot, despite missing the Globes and SAG. We shall see if he remains in the fold as time goes on.
In Actress, it’s Cynthia Erivo in and Awkwafina out. I’ve got Lupita Nyong’o in the sixth position after a strong week of precursor love. She’s knocking right on the door.
Scarlett Johansson is back in for Supporting Actress to the detriment of Annette Bening. Like the SAG Awards, that means I’m projecting a double nomination for ScarJo. That would mark her first and second nominations.
In Original Screenplay, I’ve got Pain and Glory back in over Knives Out.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Little Women (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 15)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. Knives Out (PR: 12)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 8)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 6)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
7. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taylor Russell, Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 7)
7. Hustlers (PR: 6)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Knives Out (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. 1917 (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 6)
5. Beanpole (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained (PR: 10)
7. Corpus Christi (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Painted Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Monos
Invisible Life
A White, White Day
And Then We Danced
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 7)
7. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
8. Klaus (PR: 6)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
4. For Sama (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
9. Maiden (PR: 10)
10. Aquarela (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sea of Shadows
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 3)
4. The Irishman (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
7. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Two Popes
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Cats (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
9. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Two Popes
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 6)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Us (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
9. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 8)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Irishman (PR: 9)
9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
10. John Wick – Chapter 3: Parabellum (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
8. Captain Marvel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Ad Astra
Aladdin
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Joker
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
Today kicks off my posts on the performers who will be remembered for having a strong 2019 and making an impact on the silver screen. However, as I have in previous years, my first writeup goes to a studio. And while Disney could be named every year nowadays (and they certainly had a terrific year), we turn to Netflix in 2019.
It’s hard to believe now, but it was a few short years ago that their big budget TV series House of Cards was considered a risk. Could this streaming service provide truly quality original content? Times have changed, ladies and gents.
Netflix has become an undeniable hub for high profile directors and actors. 2019 saw the studio give us successful comedies such as Murder Mystery with Adam Sandler and Jennifer Aniston and the acclaimed rom com Always Be My Maybe.
Action directors like Michael Bay turned to the service with 6 Underground starring Ryan Reynolds. We have filmmakers like Steven Soderbergh making Netflix a home with both High Flying Bird and The Laundromat. Millions of eyeballs were tuned to the Breaking Bad continuation El Camino.
Most notably, 2019 seems destined to be the year when Oscar voters won’t be able to ignore it. The conversation about Netflix being able to garner multiple Academy nods is about to become a moot one. 2017 and 2018 saw voters nibble around the edges. Two years ago, Mudbound managed a Supporting Actress nod for Mary J. Blige and Adapted Screenplay. 2018’s Roma received a number of nominations and Alfonso Cuaron won for Best Director. It was considered a frontrunner for Picture, but lost to Green Book. Some blamed it on bias against the biggest streamer.
This year, we have two films that could win the largest prize of all – Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story. Other contenders for a nomination include The Two Popes and Dolemite Is My Name, which returned to Eddie Murphy to form. Between those four pictures, you could see as many as a dozen acting nominations.
There’s little doubt that 2019 gave us a shifting in the tide of Netflix’s credibility. And that’s likely to stay. My Year Of posts will continue soon with some of the actors who had a lot to celebrate…
The Screen Actors Guild voters definitely had some surprises in store this morning as they unveiled their nominations for the ceremony airing on January 19th. And the biggest bombshell was… the performance of Bombshell itself, which led the major nods with four. This was followed by The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at three.
Some quick takes before I break it down race by race. It was a bad morning for Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Little Women, and The Two Popes as they received zero nominations. For Dolemite, I thought this might be the branch that would give it some attention. It wasn’t to be.
The nominations today have made Best Actor more confusing and opened up even more the possibility of two actors that I didn’t have listed as alternates factoring into the Oscar mix. All in all, on a morning that had genuine surprises, I went 16 for 25 on my picks. Here’s how it happened:
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: The absence of Marriage Story here is unexpected. Less so is the omission of the aforementioned Dolemite. I didn’t have Bombshell or Parasite named here. The Parasite nod could be construed as a strong sign that it’s a real contender for Best Picture for that other awards ceremony. This race probably comes down to Irishman or Hollywood and the latter likely has the edge.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: It was Bale and Egerton that I didn’t have listed as my first or second alternate. Those spots were instead designated for Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory and Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems. This opens up Bale and Egerton to greater Academy attention. It’s also worth noting that Robert De Niro’s work in The Irishman has now been snubbed by the Golden Globe and SAG voters. This makes his road to Oscar considerably bumpier. As I suspect it will be with the Oscars, I suspect it’s Driver vs. Phoenix with this category.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Analysis: No 5 for 5 projections for this blogger today and this is the only one where I named four correctly. It’s Nyong’o in over Awkwafina in The Farewell and that could assist with her Oscar cred after already picking up some critics awards. While Zellweger might be called the soft front runner, the Bombshell love certainly increases the possibility of a Theron win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: I mentioned yesterday in my predictions post that it might be foolish to leave out Hanks and I was proven right. The genuine surprise here is Foxx, who has been falling under the radar screen as of late (I didn’t even have him in my top 10 of possibilities in my Oscar estimates on Monday). Expect that to change. Hanks and Foxx are in over Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse (he missed the Globes too) and Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes. As I said with the Globes, a Pacino/Pesci split could clear the way for Pitt’s trip to the podium.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: One item I did call was the double nomination for Johansson. I did not anticipate Kidman getting in along with her Bombshell costar Robbie. In fact, I didn’t predict either of them as I went with Florence Pugh in Little Women and Zhao Shuzhen in The Farewell. Both of those actresses also missed Globe nods. Dern and Lopez could find themselves in a battle for this one. I also wouldn’t totally rule out the chance for a ScarJo upset as voters may want to honor her double nod (as they did here with Emily Blunt in 2018 for A Quiet Place).
I imagine these SAG Award announcements will impact my thinking when I update my Oscar projections on Monday. Stay tuned…
