Oscar Predictions: Paper Tiger


Writer/director James Gray is no stranger to the Cannes Film Festival as his latest Paper Tiger is the sixth effort to play the French Riviera. Others include We Own the Night, The Immigrant, and predecessor Armageddon Time. 80s set crime drama Tiger stars Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Miles Teller with support from Gavin Goudey, Roman Engel, and Victor Ptak.

Most reviews are of the thumbs up variety with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 84 Metacritic. Gray has yet to have his awards breakout despite acclaim for titles including The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra in addition to some of the aforementioned.

Tiger‘s viability is a question mark. It appears to be getting enough critical acclaim, but it’ll be interesting to see how much distributor Neon pushes it. Driver and Johansson (who were both nominated in 2019 for Marriage Story) could contend in Actor and (probably) Supporting Actress as opposed to lead. Johansson’s performance is being singled out as the best and worst aspect of the cast depending on what you read. She’ll hope for enough of the former to grab her third nomination. It’s entirely possible that Paper Tiger fails to register with the Academy though Cannes reaction is giving it a shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Ad Astra

James Gray’s space opera Ad Astra premiered overseas at the Venice Film Festival today and the Brad Pitt led saga certainly has its ardent admirers already. Some reviews are proclaiming it a masterpiece while others are more mixed.

Director Gray has had his share of appreciated works such as The Immigrant and The Lost City of Z. He has yet to garner any attention from the Academy. This is his first major Hollywood production with a considerable budget and it’s a bit unclear at the moment whether Oscar voters will reward this effort. Pitt is being praised for his starring role and would stand the best shot at any recognition over costars including Tommy Lee Jones, Ruth Negga, Liv Tyler, and Donald Sutherland.

That said, Pitt (who’s never won a gold statue) is already a serious contender to win Supporting Actor for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. That could detract from him being named as lead for Astra. The film’s best hope could be in some tech races, but I’ll wait and see further critical and audience reaction before rendering final judgment. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…