The Surfer was first screened nearly a year ago at Cannes as it makes it way to screens on May 2nd. From Vivarium director Lorcan Finnegan, Nicolas Cage stars in what numerous critics are saying is a solid B-movie psychological thriller. The supporting cast includes Julian McMahon, Nic Cassim, Miranda Tapsell, and Alexander Bertrand.
The Aussie set production stands at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes with Metacritic at 68. Reviews are singling out Cage’s performance. In recent years, he’s flirted with awards inclusion via Pig and Dream Scenario (it’s been over two decades since his last nom for Adaptation). Don’t expect The Surfer to catch a wave of momentum despite appreciation for its lead and his reportedly bonkers yet effective work. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Neon looks for The Monkey to shine at the box office when it opens February 21st. Based on Stephen King’s 1980 short story, the horror flick is Osgood Perkins’ follow-up to his surprise hit Longlegs from last year. Theo James, Tatiana Maslany, Elijah Wood, Christian Convery, Colin O’Brien, Rohan Campbell, and Sarah Levy star.
Profitability shouldn’t be an issue considering the reported $10 million budget. Early reviews are at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic. In July of 2024, Longlegs kicked off to a robust $22 million on its way to a $74 million domestic haul.
There’s been lots of scary movies in recent weeks, but The Monkey could capitalize on its simple premise, decent buzz, and King/Perkins combo. It could get past what Longlegs accomplished though I’ll project under in the high teens or low 20s.
The Monkey opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million
For my The Unbreakable Boy prediction, click here:
Andy Samberg has been a frequent presence on SNL’s 50th season as Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff in cold opens leading up to the election. It was his contributions to the show from 2005 to 2012 that have him kicking off the top 25 of my 50 all-time cast members.
His writing partners Akiva Schaffer and Jorma Taccone also deserve special mention. That trio made up The Lonely Island and are responsible for SNL Digital Shorts. These taped bits brought the sketch program into the internet age starting with “Lettuce” in which Will Forte and Samberg hilariously mull serious issues while chomping on heads of the title plant. Yet it the second Short “Lazy Sunday” with Samberg and Chris Parnell’s hardcore rapping about The Chronicles of Narnia that became a YouTube sensation just as that platform was becoming known to the populace.
Many uproarious Shorts followed. Natalie Portman and her hip hop skills? Check. Laser Cats and T-Pain on a boat? Double check. And, of course, a trio of iconic risquè numbers with Justin Timberlake. It’s also worth noting that Samberg did memorable Mark Zuckerberg and Nicolas Cage impressions. #24 will be up soon!
Maybe if you thought long and hard about some of your past vacations, you wouldn’t want to go back and revisit. Perhaps some negative aspects would seem clearer. Best to concentrate on how enjoyable it was while you were there. That’s a bit how I feel about Speak No Evil where a family of three interrupts their mundane London life to visit another family of three in the remote English countryside. I found myself non tongue-tied during its runtime. This is one of those thrillers where you find yourself talking back at the screen. Get out of the house already! You’re almost a teenager – why are you still attached to a stuffed rabbit?? We’ll get to that one.
Let’s start with some official business. Speak No Evil from James Watkins (The Woman in Black) is based on a 2022 Danish pic that I haven’t seen. It’s said to be darker and less audience friendly than this. Comparisons cannot be made from my vantage point. Louise (Mackenzie Davis) and Ben Dalton (Scoot McNairy) are Americans residing in London. We meet them on vacation in Italy along with daughter Agnes (Alix West Lefler). Mom is a little overprotective while Dad is a little gun shy to truly challenge her. The fragility of the Dalton clan seems pronounced at first when compared with Paddy (James McAvoy), younger wife Ciara (Aisling Franciosi), and their mute son Ant (Dan Hough). Paddy is a boisterous and fun loving doctor who entertains his fellow travelers during one of those who cares what hour it is wine filled lunches that becomes dinner that becomes an after hours chat. They get on well enough that the Yankee Londoners agree to visit Paddy and company at their home.
Louise and Ben see it as an opportunity to rekindle a relationship on shaky ground. Maybe some fresh country air will do that. Yet cracks in their plan emerge after they take the long and winding road to their new surroundings. Paddy has some eccentricities that initially are presented as mild annoyances. He force feeds some goose meat to Louise even though she’s already told him she’s a vegetarian. His parenting skills to silent (but always trying to convey something) Ant are questionable. Then again… so are Louise’s in a less sinister way.
Part of the screenplay’s fun is how there’s usually enough logic that you can understand why the Daltons don’t go speeding back to London. After all, their hosts can’t be crazy right? We know they must be or there wouldn’t be a movie to view. The tension building up to certain reveals are the creepiest moments and most of those come in the first half. James McAvoy is responsible for the bulk of them. I didn’t dig M. Night Shyamalan’s Split as much as many others did, but I definitely was wowed by McAvoy’s work. Here again he is chilling.
On the opposite end, the handling of McNairy’s Ben can be fascinating. He’s probably the weakest character of the sextet. Even quiet Ant seems determined to get something done though we’re not sure what it is for awhile. Plenty of genre material portrays the patriarch as the figure of strength. Ben is decidedly not that for most of Speak No Evil and it’s a fairly fresh and often amusing angle. Mackenzie Davis does an admirable job at conveying the realization of the menaces they’re facing.
Contrivances are common to keep the action moving in these thrillers. The plush bunny belonging to Agnes is a prime example. It’s the most memorable use of that non-human character since Nicolas Cage protected one in Con Air. Plot machinations mount as Evil goes along and the third act isn’t as juicy as the first two. Once motivations are known, it’s a mild letdown. However, I never wanted to hop off the B movie ride.
Twisters storms into theaters nearly 30 years after the blockbuster original and it should easily rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the weekend’s newcomer here:
My hunch is to take the over on its anticipated range and my forecast puts Twisters in the low 70s.
The rest of the top 5 should consist of holdovers. I see Despicable Me 4, after two weeks in the top spot, dropping to second in the low to mid 40s percent arena. Another animated sequel, Inside Out 2, may hold in third.
That’s because I have it dipping in the mid t0 high 30s and current #2 Longlegs experiencing a fall in the 50% range (more on that pic’s impressive start below). A Quiet Place: Day One will probably round out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $72.3 million
2. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million
3. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (July 12-14)
Illumination Entertainment lit up the charts once again as Despicable Me 4 repeated in first. The sequel took in $43.5 million in its sophomore outing and that exceeds my $36.4 million prediction. Since its holiday weekend debut, it has amassed $210 million.
Neon had the largest premiere in its history (and then some) with the serial killer thriller Longlegs. Featuring a heavily made up Nicolas Cage as the title character, it held the runner-up spot with $22.4 million. That nearly doubles my $11.6 million projection and quadruples the studio’s previous record holder Immaculate from earlier in the year. It is certainly one of 2024’s biggest over performers.
Inside Out 2 was third with $19.9 million, a tad more than my $17.7 million take. The Pixar follow-up stands at $571 million after five weeks.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fourth with $11.3 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week tally of $115 million.
Finally, the star power of Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum wasn’t enough to lift Fly Me to the Moon to stellar results. The space race rom com was fifth with $9.4 million compared to my $12.2 million call.
Longlegs is a more effective freak show than FBI story. The direction of Osgood Perkins often shows a mastery at building tension and establishing a chilling tone. When the final act arrives, I grew colder to its energy as the plot points became more recognizable. That might be a little misleading, however, since this does feature a bonkers performance even by Nicolas Cage’s standards. When the procedural itself becomes more standard, it can suffer.
Maika Monroe is Agent Lee Harker, who can’t have been in the Bureau for long but whose seemingly psychic abilities serve as an asset. The manhunt is on for Longlegs, a serial killer dabbling in the occult and intricate doll making. His young female victims also share birthdays that fall on the 14th of the month.
Set in the 90s as evidenced by the Bill Clinton portrait behind her superior’s desk, Agent Harker seems to share more than a psychic connection to the case. Her off-kilter mother (Alicia Witt) seems hung up on religious themes. You begin to suspect that the case may have relations with that woman.
Barely seen or heard in the trailers, Mr. Cage is the title character. Buried in makeup that could earn those artists awards nominations, this is Nic at his most uncaged. There are snippets of his work that will surely enter the Memeification Hall of Fame and there are aspects of his performance that certainly remind us of his wild versatility. It’s also occasionally challenging to look beyond the off the charts Caginess of it.
The short of it is that Longlegs works best when the mystery is unraveling and its secrets are obscured like Cage was in the ads. As more is revealed, it loses some edge. Yet there is no doubt that Perkins (son of Psycho Anthony Perkins) injects this with devilish details that provide anxiety, especially early on.
Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum are hoping to land a third place showing behind the current animation domination with Fly to the Moon this Friday. We also have the critically acclaimed horror thriller Longlegs with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
A low double digits premiere might get Moon to third after Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. The former got off to a holiday weekend start in line with expectations while Inside continues its enormously financially potent run. I have Despicable dropping in the low 50s range with Out easing in the lower to mid 40s.
The worst case scenario for Moon would be fifth depending on how Longlegs debuts and A Quiet Place: Day One holds up in weekend 3. Longlegs is a wild card and it could exceed expectations. I have it just topping $10 million and that would put it in a close race with its genre competitor and perhaps even Moon. I’ll give the newcomer an edge over Quiet, but spots 3-5 will be a fascinating watch this time around.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
2. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
3. Fly Me to the Moon
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
Box Office Results (July 5-7)
As mentioned, Illumination Entertainment performed as anticipated with Despicable Me 4. Having opened on Wednesday the 3rd, the four-quel (and sixth entry in the series when counting the Minions titles) made $75 million from Friday to Sunday and $122.6 million when counting its two extra days. That’s slightly below my respective estimates of $79.4 million and $126.3 million and certainly enough to keep this money minting franchise going.
Inside Out 2 dropped to second after three weeks atop the charts with $30.3 million, a tad under my $32.6 million take. The four-week gross is $534 million.
A Quiet Place: Day One tumbled a somewhat troubling 61% in third with $20.6 million. I was more generous at $24 million. The two-week tally is nearing nine digits with $93 million.
Ti West’s third pic in his horror trilogy MaXXXine was fourth with a so-so $6.7 million. That does top my $5.7 million forecast and it is higher than predecessors X and Pearl. This should fade quickly.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die rounded out the top five with $6.6 million (I said $6.8 million) for a five-week $177 million haul.
Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was sixth in its sophomore outing with $5.3 million, in line with my $5.4 million prediction. The Western’s underwhelming total is $22 million.
Neon hopes Longlegs lights up the box office this Friday. The 90s set horror thriller comes from director Osgood Perkins with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage (as a demented serial killer) headlining. Costars include Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka.
Plenty of scary genre titles have struggled in 2024 though A Quiet Place: Day One got off to a loud start just two weeks ago. Buzz is solid for Longlegs with a 93% RT rating.
Out on approximately 2500 screens, a victory for the studio would be a $10M+ start. It might get there and I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. That low double digits gross might put it in a race with the third weekend of Quiet for fourth place.
Longlegs opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million
Prior to its release on July 12th, Longlegs from Osgood Perkins is generating some loud buzz. The horror thriller stars It Follows actress Maika Monroe alongside Nicolas Cage as a doll making serial killer who’s barely glimpsed in the effective trailers. Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka costar.
The Neon release is drawing some comparisons to The Silence of the Lambs and not just because it’s set in the 1990s. Lambs was an anomaly as the only horror flick to take BP and win Director, Actor, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay for good measure. This is not a genre that often resonates with the Academy and I suspect Longlegs won’t either despite the current 100% RT score. I would note that most reviews are not putting it in the Lambs league.
Critics are praising Cage for his creepy work. Don’t be surprised if Neon mounts a Supporting Actor campaign, but I highly doubt it will pan out in the long run. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is out this weekend with a fresh creative team behind and in front of the camera. Michael Sarnoski, best known for Pig with Nicolas Cage, directs with Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, and Alex Wolff entering the franchise. Djimon Hounsou reprises his turn from A Quiet Place Part II.
The review embargo is up and it is slightly behind its two predecessors. 2018’s original posted 96% on RT with 2021’s follow-up at 91%. Day One currently stands at 86%. There is particular praise for Nyong’o who probably came close to a Best Actress nom in this genre with 2019’s Us.
At the 91st Academy Awards, A Quiet Place was up for Sound Editing (this was right before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into Best Sound). It ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody and was its sole nod. Side note: Emily Blunt took home a surprise Supporting Actress SAG prize for the pic while missing the Oscar cut.
Part II did not get a Sound mention three years later as Dune was the victor. Day‘s only shot on Oscar night is Sound and it’s a coin flip whether it gets in. You’re safe to assume it won’t take the statue even if it makes the quintet thanks to Dune: Part Two. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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