The Super Mario Bros. Movie should rule the charts for a third weekend as Evil Dead Rise and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant open in wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Evil Dead Rise appears headed for a second place showing. However, the fifth pic in the horror franchise that started over 40 years ago is unlikely to match the mid-twenties haul that its 2013 predecessor managed. That’s despite strong reviews. Some recent horror saturation might mean a low to mid teens premiere.
As for Afghanistan War drama The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal, this is a genre that often struggles for eyeballs. It could certainly outpace my mid single digits projection (which should still be good for third), but my gut says this won’t impress.
Spots 4-8 should be holdovers whose difference could be less than a million bucks. I have John Wick: Chapter 4 leading that group with Renfield having the biggest percentage drop and coming in 8th.
Some other notes before I get to the power player. The historical drama Chevalier is slated to come out on around 1200 screens. I think the ceiling could be $2.5 million and I didn’t do an individual post for it.
Then there’s Beau is Afraid. Ari Aster’s three-hour opus with Joaquin Phoenix is garnering some raves and some derision from critics. It had a sizzling limited debut on only 4 screens. Beau is opening wider this weekend, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. Depending on how many venues it’s playing in, it could pop up in the top 5. However, I can’t make an educated guesstimate (yet) until I see a number. **Update (04/19): I’ve now done a prediction for this since a theater count is released:
As for the third frame of Mario, I’ve got it falling in the high 30s to low 40s for a mid to high 5os gross. My prediction gives it the ninth best third weekend of all time after it just had the seventh largest second one. I’ll give this caveat: I’ve been low for two weeks in a row on this pic.
So with all that said, here’s my look at the top 8:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $54.8 million
2. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
3. Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
4. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. The Pope’s Exoricst
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
**7. Beau is Afraid
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (ADDED PREDICTION**)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (April 14-16)
It’s a Nintendo Cinematic Universe and we’re just living in it as The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again exceeded expectations in its sophomore frame. Illumination’s animated phenomenon piped in another $92.3 million, far exceeding my $74.9 million take. The two-week tally is an astonishing $353 million. There is a real possibility that this could end up as the highest domestic grosser of 2023.
Russell Crowe’s horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist surprisingly was second with $9 million, edging past my $7.4 million forecast. With a reported $18 million budget, that’s not too shabby though hardly glorious.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was third with $8 million (in range with my $8.4 million call). It’s up to $160 million after 4 weeks.
Spooky comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage as Dracula was anticipated to see second place, but it wasn’t to be. The fourth place showing at $8 million fell below my $12.2 million estimate. With a fairly sucky B- Cinemascore, look for it to fade quickly.
Air was fifth with $7.8 million in its second weekend. I thought it would hold better and went with $9.5 million. Nevertheless its $33 million total thus far is solid for an adult drama.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was sixth with $7.5 million (I said $6.9 million) for a so-so $74 million after three weeks.
Toho’s Japanese animated fantasy Suzume couldn’t live up to previous titles from the distributor. It was seventh with $5 million and I was more generous at $8.7 million.
I never did an official prediction for Mafia Mamma with Toni Collette, but I said the poorly reviewed comedy would be lucky to make $2 million. Well, I guess it was lucky because that’s exactly what it did for 8th.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
***In the meantime, catch my weekly podcast talking box office at Movies at the Speed of Speculation (wherever you stream!).