This evening’s Golden Globes ceremony was certainly like no other in recent history. Due to controversies that have fallen upon the Hollywood Foreign Press Association in the past couple of years, the show was not broadcast, not streaming, and no celebrities attended. Reveals of the winners were available via Twitter.
The Globes could still provide a window for what might occur when Oscar nods are out next month. If so, there could be good things coming to the big winners of the evening – West Side Story and The Power of the Dog. They are likely the two that stand the greatest chance to take Best Picture (along with Belfast) and each had key wins tonight. And while Belfast only landed one victory, it was a rather key one.
So how’d I do with my predictions? 9 for 14. That’s about how I thought I’d perform to be honest as the HFPA is a little unpredictable.
Let’s start with what I got right:
West Side Story won Best Musical/Comedy and Ariana DeBose took Supporting Actress.
Kodi-Smit McPhee is Best Supporting Actor for The Power of the Dog. For DeBose and McPhee, it could be the start of healthy runs throughout the season.
Encanto is Best Animated Feature and Drive My Car took Foreign Film. I have both in my #1 positions for the Oscars.
Dune received Best Score and “No Time to Die” won Original Song. At the Academy Awards, I expect Billie vs. Beyonce (for “Be Alive” from King Richard). In round 1, Billie is victorious.
Will Smith’s turn as King Richard is your Best Actor (Drama) while Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick… Boom! is Best Actor (Musical/Comedy). Both were widely expected and the two are anticipated to easily make the cut at the Oscars.
Where I went wrong:
My one true upset pick was Emma Stone in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) for Cruella. I went with the upset because I couldn’t choose between Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) or Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). Zegler took the prize.
I did have Pizza being delivered a Screenplay win, but that went to Belfast. I thought that early award might forecast its win for Best Drama (I picked it) but…
The Power of the Dog won and that’s a pretty significant boost for its Oscar chances. Its maker Jane Campion also was named Best Director and I went with Steven Spielberg for West Side Story.
And perhaps the only true surprise of the evening was Best Actress (Drama) though I did make a point to say that any could win. I predicted Kristen Stewart in Spencer, but Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos was awarded. This points to a real competition at the other shows to come.
Quick take – Dog and Story had solid nights. Smith, DeBose, and Smit-McPhee may have solidified their frontrunner statuses. And Best Actress might be wide open.
I’m used to saying the Golden Globes will air Sunday evening, but that’s not the case in 2022. The ceremony honoring the best of 2021 will come to us in an as yet undetermined format. This is due to various controversies brought to light recently about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and NBC’s decision not to broadcast the show.
However, the show will go on (possibly streaming on your computer) and the Globes still serve as a barometer for what Oscar voters could be thinking in coming weeks. That said, the HFPA is certainly capable of providing surprises. Just last year, Andra Day’s victory in Best Actress (Drama) for The United States vs. Billie Holiday and Jodie Foster as Supporting Actress for The Mauritanian were legitimate upsets.
As a reminder, the Globes split their picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy though not with the supporting derbies or screenplay. I will be making my picks along with runner-up selections while also providing numbers showing the correlation of Globe winners to Oscar recipients in each respective category for the last ten years.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 4 out of last 10 years
Commentary: The HFPA competition for the drama prize is the first major showdown between Oscar frontrunners Belfast and The Power of the Dog. With the international flavor and feel good vibes of the former, I’m picking Kenneth Branagh’s coming-of-age drama to come out ahead. If there’s a shocker in store, it could be CODA (which seems to picking up more steam on a weekly basis).
I will admit that picking Belfast to win Drama and take no other awards (as you’ll see below) feels strange. There is recent precedent, however, with 2016’s Moonlight.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Predicted Winner: West Side Story
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner ratio: 2 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: I wouldn’t count out Licorice Pizza but its miss in Best Director could be telling. West Side Story should be right up HFPA’s alley and its the only feature where its maker made the director cut.
Best Director
Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This is a tough one. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nod for The Lost Daughter was unexpected and she’s the only contender that I feel stands no chance of winning. Branagh could certainly ride a wave of Belfast love. Villeneuve could be honored for the technical mastery of Dune. And Campion is the hopeful picking up the bulk of critics prizes. Yet I’ll go with the HFPA honoring the legendary Spielberg.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actress)
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Predicted Winner: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This is the first test to see whether Stewart really is the frontrunner that could sweep through the season. I’m skeptical and I honestly believe any of the performers could take this (I struggled to pick the runner-up as it could be any of them). I wouldn’t put money on it, but I’ll say Stewart manages to nab the crown.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actor)
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: As you can see, this is a rather reliable predictor of where the Academy could go. For 2021’s features, the ceremonies should boil down to Smith v. Cumberbatch. I don’t think HFPA will pass up a chance to honor one of cinema’s most durable draws for the last 25 years in one of his most acclaimed performances.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actress)
Nominees:
Marion Cotillard, Annette
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Cruella
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Cruella
Runner-Up: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 3 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: There was an upset last year when Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) emerged over the favored Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. The West Side love extending to Zegler is probably the smartest pick to make. Alana Haim’s work in Pizza could deliver her a victory and she probably should be listed as the runner-up. Yet if there’s any upset, I could see Stone surprising and there’s almost always one during the Globes. Perhaps against my better judgment, I’m going with it.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actor)
Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
Predicted Winner: Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 1 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Dinklage is a threat though I’ll go with DiCaprio as the runner-up since he’s arguably the biggest star in Hollywood. That said, Garfield (he’s likely #3 in the Oscar contest at the moment) is the most likely winner.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actress)
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Jodie Foster’s win for 2020 came out of nowhere so who really knows? I’ll go with a West Side pick and DeBose. Other than Negga, I could foresee any of these candidates making (theoretical) podium trips.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actor)
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Another tricky one in a race where the Globes and Academy typically match. Assuming the Belfast boys split and Affleck isn’t a factor, this comes down to Smit-McPhee vs. Kotsur. A win for either could propel them to a glorious season ahead. I’m really tempted to go with Kotsur, but I’ll say this marks the best opportunity for HFPA to bestow an honor for Dog. This is a coin flip.
Best Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Licorice Pizza
Runner-Up: Belfast
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 5 out of the last 10 years (counting both Original and Adapted Screenplays at the Oscars)
Commentary: Your guess is as good as mine here. I’m going with a bit of an upset with Pizza, but the smart money is probably on Belfast or Dog. I also wouldn’t count out Aaron Sorkin for Ricardos (he took this category last year for The Trial of the Chicago 7). And Adam McKay could be called up for Don’t Look Up which (despite its mixed reviews) is drawing plenty of ink.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
My Sunny Maad
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted Winner: Encanto
Runner-Up: Flee
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last years
Commentary: The Globes are capable of unexpected picks here (2019’s Missing Link for example). Don’t be surprised if Flee from Iran gets this, but I’ll go with Disney’s likeliest hopeful of its trio of nominees and that’s Encanto.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
A Hero
Parallel Mothers
Predicted Winner: Drive My Car
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Watch out for Mothers to pull off an upset, but this is Drive My Car‘s race to lose. The Japanese drama has established itself as the frontrunner in international competitions at all ceremonies.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Another race that Mothers could unexpectedly take, I also wouldn’t discount Dispatch or Dog. This should be Dune‘s best opportunity to take a prize though.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Here I Am” from Respect
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Predicted Winner: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Be Alive” from King Richard
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This should be the battle of Billie (Eilish) for “Die” vs. Beyonce (it’s just Beyonce) for “Alive” and that should be the dynamic for the Oscars. The HFPA has honored the last two Bond themes for Skyfall and Spectre. I’ll give it a very slight edge.
And there you have it! The Golden Globes will air, err happen, Sunday. I’ll have reaction up on the blog shortly thereafter.
I half jokingly said I would be happy if I got half of my Golden Globe predictions correct due to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s unpredictable nature. And that’s exactly what happened as this blogger went 7/14.
The show provided some genuine whoppers when it came to upsets and the three biggest ones undoubtedly happened in the three actress races.
First things first. It was a good night for Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland, which took Best Picture (Drama) and Director. I predicted Zhao’s victory, but had The Trial of the Chicago 7 taking Picture. As for Aaron Sorkin’s Netflix drama, it won only in Screenplay (which I projected). This could give Nomadland the edge now at the Oscars and it turbo charges the narrative that Zhao is going to sweep the director categories with upcoming shows.
In the lead actor races, I went 2 for 2 with Chadwick Boseman in Drama for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Sacha Baron Cohen in Musical/Comedy for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, which also took Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) as was expected.
However, Maria Bakalova’s victory for Actress in Borat didn’t happen as Rosamund Pike scored a surprising win for I Care A Lot. That doesn’t bode well for Bakalova’s Supporting Actress nod from the Academy.
Speaking of Supporting Actress… whoa! Jodie Foster took the trophy for The Mauritanian and I challenge you to find anyone who saw that occurring. Foster won over my pick of Amanda Seyfried in Mank. I have yet to have Foster in my top five for the Oscars and perhaps that will change when I update my estimates tomorrow.
Yet the biggest Actress shocker was in Drama with Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday (I said Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman). This is another race where nobody foresaw this development.
I thought Baron Cohen might be a double winner, but he lost Supporting Actor to Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. This is not unexpected as I had Kaluuya as my runner-up and his chances at Oscar gold are looking pretty solid.
The only slight upset in my projections was Another Round taking Foreign Language Film over Minari. It didn’t as Minari was victorious. As expected, Soul took Animated Film and Score and was the only picture to win two Globes other than Nomadland and Borat.
My runner-up “lo Si” from The Life Ahead was Best Song over “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami. So, as previously mentioned, I got precisely half of my selections right. Oof.
So what’s this all mean? The Golden Globes created some real head scratchers in the Actress fields and I would say there’s no certainly no Academy frontrunner at the moment for Actress and Supporting Actress. Nomadland did what it needed to do. Trial had a disappointing evening while solidifying its status as the Original Screenplay heavy favorite. Kaluuya is now the odds on pick in Supporting Actor and so is Boseman for Actor. As for Twitter… look for Jason Sudeikis’s hoodie to get the most attention.
The biggest Oscar precursor thus far drops their nominations this Wednesday (with SAG following the next day) in a week where the awards picture should become a bit clearer.
Of course, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has a habit of making some left field picks from time to time. And unlike the Academy, they split their film and lead acting races into Drama and Comedy/Musical.
Every week on the blog, I have been forecasting each Oscar race. However, for the Globes, it’s just one post with my final predictions for what I feel will happen on Wednesday. In every category, I’m also selecting a first and second alternate. We shall see how I do shortly!
P.S. – SAG Predictions are up tomorrow! Let’s get to it…
Best Film Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Second Alternate – The Father
Best Film Director
Predicted Nominees:
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
First Alternate – Florian Zeller, The Father
Second Alternate – Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
First Alternate – Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Second Alternate – Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
First Alternate – Steven Yeun, Minari
Second Alternate – Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Film Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Emma
Hamilton
Palm Springs
The Prom
First Alternate – On the Rocks
Second Alternate – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
First Alternate – Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Second Alternate – Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
First Alternate – Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
Second Alternate – James Corden, The Prom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
First Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Second Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
First Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Second Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – The Father
Second Alternate – Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
First Alternate – The Willoughbys
Second Alternate – Earwig and the Witch
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
The Life Ahead
Martin Eden
Minari
Quo Vadis, Aida?
First Alternate – Dear Comrades!
Second Alternate – Beanpole
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
First Alternate – Hillbilly Elegy
Second Alternate – The Midnight Sky
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
First Alternate – “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Second Alternate – “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
And that breaks out to the following pictures receiving these numbers for nominations:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, The Life Ahead, Minari, Palm Springs
2 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, The Prom, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Martin Eden, The Mauritanian, Miss Americana, News of the World, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Promising Young Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Wolfwalkers
I’ll have reaction to the Globe nods up on Wednesday!
The most known precursor to the Oscars unveiled their nominations today. Per usual, there were surprises as some films hopes potentially dim for the big prize with others rising.
As far as my predictions, I went 51/70 overall while going 5/5 in four of the fourteen races. Today I will also make my first predictions for winners with final picks coming a couple of days before the ceremony in January.
Let’s break them all down with a little analysis, shall we?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born
A bit surprisingly, Bohemian Rhapsody managed to score a nod over my prediction of First Man. I would say that at this juncture, Man is truly a question mark as to whether it garners an Oscar slot for Picture, while its inclusion in tech races still seems assured. Additionally, I think Black Panther helped its cause today to be the first comic book flick to get a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.
Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice
No surprises here! Picking a winner is far more tough as I believe The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice all have legitimate shots. Both Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice) received Directing nods while Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) did not. That could give those two pictures a slight edge and I’ll put it as a coin toss at the moment.
Predicted Winner: Green Book
Best Director
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
The aforementioned McKay and Farrelly were the ones I didn’t predict. I instead had Lanthimos and Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk). This would seem to be between Cuaron and Cooper and I’ll give the former a tiny edge.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Best Actor (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Hedges and Washington (a rather genuine surprise) got in over Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed). Mr. Hawke had been on a roll with critics precursors and this is the first interruption of that. Gosling’s snub continues the troubling trend for First Man. With Christian Bale and Viggo Mortensen in the Musical/Comedy race, this appears to be a clear victory for Cooper.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Both Kidman and Pike helped their cases for Oscar attention here while my predicted nominees of Viola Davis (Widows) and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) did not. This category appears to be Close vs. Gaga (as it may also be for the Academy). This prediction could and likely will fluctuate.
Predicted Winner: Close
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
No big surprise with Reilly getting in over Nick Robinson (Love, Simon), which was a bit of a wild card pick. Bale and Mortensen are the two winner possibilities and I’m going with the former right now.
I’m giving Colman the win, but this could easily be changed to Blunt at some point.
Predicted Winner: Colman
Best Supporting Actor
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
No Sam Elliot for A Star Is Born was unexpected, with Rockwell continuing the Vice love. Ali should be considered a soft front-runner, but a win for Driver or Grant seems feasible. I’m going for an upset pick, but could revert back to Ali.
Predicted Winner: Grant
Best Supporting Actress
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Adams is probably going to win… for Sharp Objects in the television race for which she’s also nominated. Stone and Weisz could cancel one another out and Foy represents the lone high-profile nod for First Man. That leaves Ms. King and she seems to be a front-runner.
Predicted Winner: King
Best Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice
The exclusion of A Star Is Born surprised me with Green Book honored instead. This is a tough one, but I’ll say this ends up being the sole win for The Favourite. Roma and Vice are certainly possible.
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Best Foreign Language Film
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters
Capernaum in, Cold War out. Roma will win. Enough said.
Predicted Winner: Roma
Best Animated Feature Film
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Interent, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
This could certainly be the Academy five. The Hollywood Foreign Press loves their Pixar. Dogs and Spider-Man could threaten, but the safe pick is Incredibles 2.
Predicted Winner: Incredibles 2
Best Original Score
Todd’s Performance: 2/5
The Nominees: A Quiet Place, Isle of Dogs, Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns
Ouch. Didn’t fare well here as I only predicted First Man and Poppins. A shocking omission was Beale Street, which some see as the Academy favorite in this race. Considering its lackluster reception for Man, it could dangerous to pick it over Poppins, but here goes.
Predicted Winner: First Man
Best Original Song
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: “All the Stars” (Black Panther), “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’), “Requiem for a Private War” (A Private War), “Revelation” (Boy Erased), “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
I had two Poppins tracks in and not “Revelation” or “Requiem”. This is going Gaga.
Predicted Winner: “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born).
And there you have it folks! I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up later today…
This Sunday evening, the Golden Globes (perhaps the most significant Oscar precursor) airs with Jimmy Fallon hosting. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Globes divide both Picture and the Lead Acting races in two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy.
Here’s how I have each race playing out with the winners predicted. As a side note, I decided to not do my weekly Oscar predictions yesterday and will have an updated post on Thursday next week!
With that, let’s get to the races…
Best Drama
The Nominees: Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight
Analysis: Not an easy prediction as this will probably boil down to Moonlight and Manchester, with both Hacksaw and Lion being potential spoilers (Water is only pic I see as having no shot). The winner of this category will likely vault into a two-way race with La La Land as to what comes out on top at Oscar time.
Best Musical/Comedy
The Nominees: 20th Century Women, Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, La La Land, Sing Street
Todd’s Prediction: La La Land
Analysis: It would be pretty shocking if Damien Chazelle’s ode to Hollywood musicals didn’t win here. I suppose perhaps Jenkins has a dark horse shot, but this is the easiest pick of the bunch to make.
Best Director
The Nominees: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Longergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Todd’s Prediction: Damien Chazelle
Analysis: Jenkins has racked up a slew of precursors and a win for Gibson would be seen as completing a remarkable comeback after multiple personal issues. However, at the end of the day, I believe the La La love will extend to its director.
Best Actor (Drama)
The Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences).
Todd’s Prediction: Casey Affleck
Analysis: Like the Oscar race, this looks to be between Affleck and Washington. I’ll give the former the slight edge as he’s won more precursors and Manchester itself was nominated for Picture, whereas Fences was not.
Analysis: While I wouldn’t totally rule out an Adams or Huppert win, Portman has the edge in her acclaimed role of Mrs. Kennedy.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
The Nominees: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Jonah Hill (War Dogs), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Todd’s Prediction: Hugh Grant
Analysis: Conventional wisdom would point to a Gosling win, but I believe the Hollywood Foreign Press will provide a bit of an upset here and honor Grant. Also – don’t be too shocked if Reynolds manages to surprise.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
The Nominees: Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply), Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Todd’s Prediction: Emma Stone
Analysis: Bening and Streep are long shots, but it would be a rather large upset if Stone didn’t emerge victorious here.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Dev Patel (Lion), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Todd’s Prediction: Mahershala Ali
Analysis: Bridges or Patel are feasible, but Ali has received the bulk of precursor awards and I believe that will continue here.
Best Supporing Actress
The Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Todd’s Prediction: Viola Davis
Analysis: Davis is the clear front runner here and at the Oscars. An upset win (possible for any of these actresses other than Spencer) could dispel that notion, but it probably won’t occur.
Best Screenplay
The Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals
Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight
Analysis: La La and Manchester are in the mix here, but this is probably where Barry Jenkins will get his win and not for direction.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Arrival, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight
Todd’s Prediction: La La Land
Analysis: Tough one and it’s not out of the question to envision any of them winning. I’ll just go La La and see what happens.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls, “City of Stars” from La La Land, “Faith” from Sing, “Gold” from Gold, “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
Todd’s Prediction: “City of Stars”
Analysis: There’s some real heavy hitters here: Justin Timberlake, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and Stevie Wonder with nominations. Yet I think the HFPA honors La La once again.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, Sing, Zootopia
Todd’s Prediction: Zootopia
Analysis: Kubo has a shot and you can never dismiss Disney with Moana. However, there’s another acclaimed Mouse Factory title in the mix and I believe Zootopia gets in.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: Divines, Elle, Neruda, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann
Todd’s Prediction: Toni Erdmann
Analysis: Elle could absolutely win here (and perhaps The Salesman), but I’ll go with Academy favorite Erdmann.
And that does it, folks! I’ll have a post up Sunday night letting you know how well (or poorly) I did. Until then…
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