Tag: Michael Sarnoski

June 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/17): It is being reported that The Death of Robin Hood is only hitting around 1000 screens so I revising my estimate down from $8 million to a mere $3.8 million. That would put it in outside of the top 5

Toy Story 5 should dominate the upcoming weekend as the franchise enters its fourth decade of existence. The other premiere is Michael Sarnoski’s The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman in the title role. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Toy Story 5 Box Office Prediction
The Death of Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

In order to set the series record for highest opening, Disney/Pixar’s fifth round of Woody and Buzz needs to top the $120 million earned by part 4 in 2019. I’ve got it doing that with plenty of room to spare. My prediction also gives it 2026’s largest out of the gate haul currently held by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie with $131 million.

I’m not expecting much from Robin Hood and my fourth place forecast could decrease if the screen count is lower than the 2000-2500 venues I’m assuming. The A24 title seemingly hasn’t picked up much buzz though it’ll hope for some Father’s Day traffic.

Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg got off to a decent if unspectacular beginning (more on that below). The sci-fi adventure hopes for a somewhat meager sophomore frame drop though I’ve got it falling in the low to mid 50s.

Obsession should be third while holdovers Scary Movie and Backrooms should duke it out for fifth place with the latter perhaps having a slight edge.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $166.8 million

2. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million

3. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

5. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 12-14)

In short, everything made less than I projected over the weekend. In more detail, Disclosure Day kicked off in the middle of its anticipated range with $44.5 million. I thought Spielberg’s return to the alien genre would fare better at $51.6 million. The B Cinemascore grade, not encouraging for a blockbuster, suggests a heftier drop than I might’ve originally thought could be coming.

Obsession, in its fifth frame, at last saw it grosses go down. That said, the 25% decline to $19 million gave the horror smash (and now Oscar contender in my view) a total of $188 million thus far.

Scary Movie had a massive 74% fall in weekend #2 with $14.2 million compared to my far more generous $22 million take. The sixth edition in the spoof series sits at $84 million.

Backrooms was fourth with $11.5 million, just under my $12.4 million call. This scary movie has amassed $160 million after three weeks.

Finally, Masters of the Universe solidified placement as a summer flop with a 70% plummet in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million. Once again, my benefit doubting forecast of $13.5 million proved false. The two-week tally is a weak $46 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Death of Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (06/17): It is being reported that The Death of Robin Hood is only hitting around 1000 screens so I revising my estimate down from $8 million to a mere $3.8 million

A24, fresh off a studio best opening with Backrooms, aims for respectable grosses with The Death of Robin Hood on June 19th. That could be wishful thinking. Michael Sarnoski, maker of Pig and A Quiet Place: Day One, directs Hugh Jackman in the title role. Supporting players include Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, Murray Bartlett, and Noah Jupe.

The buzz seems quiet for the umpteenth version of the legendary character’s adventures. Critics aren’t overly impressed with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. The last time we saw Robin Hood onscreen was 2018 with Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx headlining and the result was a highly disappointing $9.1 million debut.

I’ve yet to see a theater count for Jackman’s turn, but I suspect this could fare even worse. Assuming 2000-2500 venues (my projection will change if the number is considerably different), I’ll say it does.

The Death of Robin Hood opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my Toy Story 5 prediction, click here:

Toy Story 5 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Death of Robin Hood

A dark interpretation of a folkloric character portrayed many times on film, Hugh Jackman has title role status in The Death of Robin Hood. Out June 19th, costars include Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, Murray Bartlett, and Noah Jupe. Michael Sarnoski, maker of Pig and A Quiet Place: Day One, directs.

Mr. Jackman is generally being appreciated for his downbeat take on the part. Reviews are varied with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. That’s more than 2010’s Robin Hood from Ridley Scott and starring Jackman’s Les Miserables singing partner Russell Crowe. It’s far better than 2018’s version with Taron Egerton, but the critical reaction does not indicate the A24 release will play in awards season. I doubt its distributor will prioritize it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – A Quiet Place: Day One

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is out this weekend with a fresh creative team behind and in front of the camera. Michael Sarnoski, best known for Pig with Nicolas Cage, directs with Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, and Alex Wolff entering the franchise. Djimon Hounsou reprises his turn from A Quiet Place Part II.

The review embargo is up and it is slightly behind its two predecessors. 2018’s original posted 96% on RT with 2021’s follow-up at 91%. Day One currently stands at 86%. There is particular praise for Nyong’o who probably came close to a Best Actress nom in this genre with 2019’s Us.

At the 91st Academy Awards, A Quiet Place was up for Sound Editing (this was right before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into Best Sound). It ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody and was its sole nod. Side note: Emily Blunt took home a surprise Supporting Actress SAG prize for the pic while missing the Oscar cut.

Part II did not get a Sound mention three years later as Dune was the victor. Day‘s only shot on Oscar night is Sound and it’s a coin flip whether it gets in. You’re safe to assume it won’t take the statue even if it makes the quintet thanks to Dune: Part Two. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

Michael Sarnoski, director of Pig, takes over a highly profitable horror franchise from John Krasinski with A Quiet Place: Day One. Paramount is hoping the prequel continues to bring home the bacon. With Krasinski (who just released the family friendly IF) and spouse Emily Blunt (recently in The Fall Guy) out of the mix, Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff, and Djimon Hounsou (a returnee from the second entry) headline.

In the spring of 2018, A Quiet Place made loud noises at multiplexes with a $50 million beginning and $188 million overall domestic haul. The 2021 sequel (delayed a year due to the pandemic) earned $48 million out of the gate with $160 million total stateside.

Scary movies have seen underwhelming premieres for the most part in 2024. Day One should be an exception. That said, I don’t see a compelling reason why this would significantly top its predecessors. A $50 million plus debut is possible. I suspect it will fall in line with its predecessor from three years ago in the mid to high 40s range.

A Quiet Place: Day One opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million

For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

For my Kinds of Kindness prediction, click here:

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

Pig Review

Michael Sarnoski’s Pig is best savored when not knowing what course it will take next. This is more of a character study with Nicolas Cage playing a fascinating one. It’s a reminder of how special he can be when the recipe is done right.

Cage’s Rob lives off the grid in the Oregon wilderness with his trusty truffle pig. When that beloved companion is taken from him, the unkept and determined recluse makes it his mission to bring home the bacon. By his side is Amir (Alex Wolff), a supplier to high-end Portland restaurants who is seemingly Rob’s only non-swine contact. He has a strained association with his rich father (Adam Arkin), who pulls a lot of strings in this unique world of Pacific Northwest based foodies.

I wouldn’t blame you for assuming that Cage goes all John Wick in his quest. That’s only one area where the screenplay (written by the director) leaves you pleasantly surprised. Our lead has given us gobs of overly hammy acting outbursts and the one named Pig lets him do the opposite. This is a mostly quiet and even subtle performance from Cage.

This picture is about past and current losses and how Rob and Amir deal with them. It’s about relationships that cannot be rekindled, but how the memories of them could help heal. The script also amusingly plays around with the self-importance of its characters. This applies to chefs preparing tiny and pricey meals when they’d rather be cooking something else. There’s also Amir’s incessant classical music listening with a voiceover telling him how special it is.

We also see glimpses of an underground lair of culinary employees who seem to adhere to a code known only to them. This is a strange universe which might be at home in a John Wick flick if explored further. To borrow another Keanu Reeves reference, it’s also one in which Rob used to be its Neo. All of this comes together due to that sow swipe, but Pig has more on its mind thematically than revenge. This dish serves up consistently unexpected rewards.

***1/2  (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Pig

I know, I know. For followers of my blog – you might be thinking… an Oscar Watch post on the Nicolas Cage pig movie?!?! Well, before you completely turn up your snout on the notion, I will just point out that the actor’s latest effort (opening tomorrow) is garnering some serious acclaim.

Pig marks the directorial debut of Michael Sarnoski and it casts Cage as a truffle hunter whose beloved swine is swiped. So how are the critics responding? How about a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating and reviewers calling it some of the finest work of the actor’s career.

The last several years of the Oscar winner’s career has been something to behold. Cage is appearing in about four to five pictures a year on average. Most of them are direct to streaming and many are nondescript action thrillers with poor Tomato meters. Yet for every three or four of those, there’s another that gets some props. This includes Mom and Dad, Mandy, and Color Out of Space.

It’s been over 25 years since Cage took home Best Actor for Leaving Las Vegas and nearly 20 years since his last nod for Adaptation. Now let’s get real. It’s highly unlikely that the Academy will nominate him here (though they have shown their love for the title animal before with Babe). Pig is a long shot for any attention at all.

That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see a groundswell of Internet support with a campaign to get Cage back into contention. Don’t expect it to come to fruition, but stranger things have happened. That includes the very idea of this post existing before the critics weighed in. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…