Onward Box Office Prediction

The 22nd Pixar pic in the past quarter century debuts next weekend with Onward. The fantasy flick comes from director Dan Scanlon, who also made the sequel Monsters University in 2013. Tom Holland and Chris Pratt lead a voice cast that includes Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Octavia Spencer, Ali Wong, Lena Waithe, Mel Rodriguez, Wilmer Valderrama, Tracey Ullman, Dave Foley, and John Ratzenberger.

Per usual for Pixar, reviews are strong with a current 85% Rotten Tomatoes score. Some critics have said this isn’t quite in the league of their classics. Interestingly, this is the first selection from the studio not to open in either summer or fall (with the vast majority having premiered in June or November).

That could have the effect of making Onward not seem like the event debut that most Pixar offerings are. There is also some family competition from holdovers Sonic the Hedgehog and The Call of the Wild. Still, Disney knows how to market their product. Only three of the Pixar titles that had wide releases have made under $50 million out of the gate. I expect this will top that, but $60 million could be a slight reach. I’ll say mid 50s is the likely scenario – on par with non-Pixar Mouse Factory pictures such as Big Hero 6 and Ralph Breaks the Internet. 

Onward opening weekend prediction: $55.7 million

For my The Way Back prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/02/27/the-way-back-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Onward

Pixar Studios is booking box office real estate early in 2020 with the release of next weekend’s Onward, which had its premiere at the Berlin Film Festival. The animated adventure follows two elf brothers voiced by Tom Holland and Chris Pratt. Early reviews have been mostly positive with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 81%.

That said, many critics are saying that it’s not in the same league as other Pixar classics. And several of them have managed to win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature. So where will Onward stack up?

Since the inception of the category in 2001, Pixar has seen 13 of its 18 titles nominated for the award. 10 have emerged victorious, including Toy Story 4 two weeks ago. There have been two years where the studio has put out more than one feature. In 2015, Inside Out took the Oscar while The Good Dinosaur went without a nomination. The same happened in 2017 with Coco winning and Cars 3 missing a nod.

I say this because 2020 will also see a double release with Onward next weekend and Soul in June. It’s certainly possible that Pixar will save its awards campaigning for the latter instead. However, reviews for the former are decent enough that it could nab a slot among the five (depending on competition over the next ten months). Also worth mentioning is that Dan Scanlon, who directs here, made one of the other titles to go without a nomination with 2013’s Monsters University. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Downhill Box Office Prediction

A remake of the acclaimed 2014 Swedish comedic drama Force Majeure, Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Will Ferrell headline Downhill this weekend. From directors Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, the pic debuted last month at the Sundance Film Festival to mixed reaction. Costars include Miranda Otto, Zoe Chao, and Zach Woods.

Downhill is the first official release from the newly coined Searchlight Pictures (formerly Fox Searchlight), which is now owned by Disney. I’m not sure this release gets the moniker off to a solid start. With just 47% on Rotten Tomatoes, this is slated to roll out on a smallish 1500 screens over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend.

Despite its well-known two leads, the muted buzz and lack of theaters has me thinking double digits is out of reach or even $5 million.

Downhill opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Sonic the Hedgehog prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/02/06/sonic-the-hedgehog-box-office-prediction/

For my Fantasy Island prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/02/06/fantasy-island-box-office-prediction/

For my The Photograph prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/02/08/the-photograph-box-office-prediction/

Enough Said Movie Review

Who knew the pairing of Tony Soprano and Elaine Benes would result in something this rewarding? Nicole Holofcener’s Enough Said is a romantic comedy which employs relatively few of the clichés we’ve come to expect in the genre. There is one giant exception and it hinges on a fairly amazing coincidence between the picture’s central characters. At the end of the day, though, it doesn’t matter much because this is a thoughtful, honest, often emotional, and incredibly well-acted movie.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus is really only known for her TV work – “Seinfeld”, “The New Adventures of Old Christine”, and “Veep”. James Gandolfini played one of the most iconic television roles in history, but has had an impressive filmography as well. Putting these two together in a rom com doesn’t sound like an automatic recipe for success. It is.

Enough Said focuses on Eva (Louis-Dreyfus), a middle-aged divorcee and mother of one whose daughter is getting ready to go to college. Albert (Gandolfini) is a middle-aged divorcee and father of one who daughter is getting ready to go to college. The two meet at a party and begin dating. Eva is a masseuse who meets a new client (Catherine Keener) at the same party. It turns out later that she is Albert’s ex-wife and this complicates Eva’s view of her budding relationship.

The film is refreshing in its realistic dialogue. Its funny moments aren’t forced and feel natural. I particularly liked how many of the characters first question to Eva about being a masseuse is whether clients often become aroused. I have a feeling masseuses probably get that question all the time. There are some nicely developed supporting characters including Eva’s not so happily married friends played by Toni Collette and Ben Falcone. In a lesser movie, Eva and Albert’s exes might be portrayed as “bad guys”, but not here. Director and writer Holofcener seems to respect her audience and she gives us characters that are flawed, but also just good people trying to make things work out.

The screenplay is a huge plus and the last few minutes of Enough Said pack more emotional punch that I could’ve anticipated. Yet it’s Louis-Dreyfus and Gandolfini that make this film special. Louis-Dreyfus has proven a master of sitcom acting which requires different beats and style than movies. She is terrific here as well and I would love to see her continue to seek out roles on the big screen.

Sadly, we all know that Gandolfini died last year shortly before this picture’s release. Those of us who came to know him and love him and sometimes loathe him as Tony Soprano knew his intensity and brilliance at playing that character. His portrayal of Tony is legendary. However, he was so much more than that and capable of playing much different roles and that is evidenced here. We don’t see Tony Soprano in the character of Albert. We see Gandolfini brilliantly stepping into the part of a regular guy who gets a second shot at love. These two TV titans have been blessed with great writing on the small screen back in the day. They get another chance here in this.

And it gives an audience one more chance to remember the talents of a man who left too soon. Enough said.

***1/2 (out of four)