Japanese drama Kokuho showed up in two shortlists for the 98th Academy Awards released today (expect a few posts covering international and documentary contenders in particular). Being that it’s Japan’s submission for International Feature Film, materializing on that list wasn’t a major surprise. Making the ten possibilities in Makeup and Hairstyling was. Lee Sang-il directs with a cast including Ryo Yoshizawa, Ryusei Yokohama, Mitsuki Takahata, Shinobu Terajima, Min Tanaka, and Ken Watanabe. It was first screened at Cannes in the summer.
The film has bragging rights. In November, it became the highest grossing live-action film in its native country. It also sports a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Japan has seen a handful of their submissions make the Academy’s cut in the 21st century. They are The Twilight Samurai from 2003, Departures in 2008 (which won), Shoplifters in 2018, another victor with Drive My Car from 2021, and Perfect Days from 2023.
That’s a resume that would look darn good in a different year. International Feature Film, however, is packed with other surefire hopefuls including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sirât (which had a banner day on the shortlists), and No Other Choice (all Neon titles). There may not be room for Kokuho to shine. It probably stands a better shot at Makeup and Hairstyling as they’ve proven to be a branch capable of unexpected nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This Wednesday (01/08), the Directors Guild of America reveals their five nominees for behind the camera achievement in 2024. The DGA is normally a reliable barometer to project 4 of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past decade, the match has been that margin in eight of the years. For two of the years, the match was 3 for 5. That includes last year when Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) made the DGA cut but Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) received Academy attention.
I believe there are two shoo-in nominees for the 77th ceremony in Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Furthermore, I see Edward Berger (Conclave) as really close to being an automatic pick.
Then it gets interesting. The DGA often prioritizes American pictures over foreign entries or foreign directors. We certainly saw that last year with Gerwig/Payne over Glazer/Triet. In 2021, Denis Villeneuve was in the DGA quintet for Dune while Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) replaced him in the Academy five. In 2022, it was Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) vying for Oscar instead of DGA selection Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick.
That’s why I wouldn’t pencil in Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) here. And that’s why being skeptical about Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) is warranted. Both could get in and both movies are over performing in various precursors. Pérez, it could be argued, is doing so by an even more impressive margin. That’s why I’m leaving Audiard in while Fargeat is barely on the outside looking in.
So who gets the fifth slot? I wouldn’t count out RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or even James Mangold for A Complete Unknown or Jon M. Chu for Wicked (though I’m finding that one increasingly unlikely). I’m reminded that DGA also selects some filmmakers for blockbuster fare the Academy ignores. Gerwig for Barbie and Kosinski for Top Gun. Ridley Scott for The Martian.
And… Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I think history could repeat itself with Villeneuve in contention for the sequel and that’s the direction I’m going for DGA.
Kiyoshi Kurosawa (no relation to Akira) premiered his latest feature Cloud at the Venice Film Festival and he’s had good luck there before. His 2020 effort Wife of a Spy took the Silver Lion (equivalent to Best Director). This psychological thriller is garnering mostly decent reviews and Japan has selected it as their pick for International Feature Film.
The nation has seen a handful of their selections nominated for the prize in the 21st century. That includes two winners (2008’s Departures, 2021’s Drive My Car) in addition to 2003’s The Twilight Samurai, 2018’s Shoplifters, and Perfect Days from last year.
With 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic score, I’m not confident the acclaim is strong enough for Japan to make the race this time. If Cloud manages to make the shortlist, however, it could sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A fight between two elementary school boys leads to other drama in the Norwegian film Armand from first time director Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel. It has premiered at Cannes prior to its planned September bow in its native land. Domestic distribution is pending. Renate Reinsve, who wowed critics in 2021’s The Worst Person in the World, stars alongside Ellen Dorrit Petersen, Thea Lambrechts Vaulen, Endre Hellesveit, Øystein Røger, and Vera Veijovic.
There is praise for Reinsve’s work and the cinematography, but some of the reviews are tempered in their enthusiasm. The RT score is 75%. It wouldn’t surprise me if Norway goes with Armand as their selection for International Feature Film. The aforementioned Worst Person was a contender in the race three years back and lost to Drive My Car. Prior to that, you have to go back to 2012 and Kon-Tiki for the previous Norwegian nominee (they’re 0 for 6 total as far as wins).
Perhaps Armand can make the shortlist, but I don’t see it in the final quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Italian filmmaker Paolo Sorrentino’s filmography has experienced success at the Oscars. In 2013, The Great Beauty took the prize for International Feature Film (then titled Best Foreign Language Film). 2021’s The Hand of God was up for IFF and ultimately fell short to Drive My Car. His latest is Parthenope which has premiered at Cannes.
The Naples set drama stars newcomer Celeste Dalla Porta in the title role alongside Stefenia Sandrelli, Gary Oldman, Silvio Orlando, Luisa Ranieri, and Isabella Ferrari.
Reviews from the Riviera aren’t pretty with many suggesting it’s the auteur’s darkest hour… or rather two hours and change. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 15%, I doubt Italy will bother to submit this as their contender in the international competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In 2021, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car steered its acclaim to four Oscar nominations in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Feature Film (which it won). His follow-up is the eco drama Evil Does Not Exist and it is out stateside this weekend. The cast includes Hitoshi Omika, Ryo Nishikawa, Ryuji Kosaka, and Ayaka Shibutani.
About 70 minutes shorter compared to the the lengthy Car, Evil played the festival circuit last fall including Venice and Toronto. Yet its distributor decided against a 2023 release and Japan didn’t need to decide whether to submit it as their IFF contender. Their pick Perfect Days did make the cut of nominees.
Now the nation has a ’24 choice to make. Reviews are positive at 92% on RT though not as strong as Hamaguchi’s predecessor. If Japan does select it, Evil has a shot at making the IFF quintet. I do not think it will expand beyond that like Car did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As if there weren’t enough Oscar precursor activity with the SAG and DGA nominations arriving tomorrow, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) unveil their ten nominees for Best Theatrical Motion Picture and Best Animated Motion Picture on Friday.
In 2021, the Academy reverted back to a set 10 for BP contenders. There was an 8 for 10 correlation that year between the PGA’s movies and the Academy’s. Last year it was 7 for 10.
One commonality is that international titles usually don’t make the cut with PGA. While Parasite was a rare exception in 2019, Drive My Car and All Quiet on the Western Front weren’t to be found on PGA’s list in the last two years. Therefore I’m leaving out Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest for the 35th ceremony. Either or both could pop up, but this seems to be the smarter play.
With those potential Oscar BP hopefuls out, I do believe there’s a somewhat safe 8 to predict: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. I could see one or two potentially miss – Fiction, Maestro, and Lives might be vulnerable. Yet I won’t go as far in projecting any of them out.
That leaves two slots. The PGA often goes for blockbusters that the Academy ignores. Examples over the past decade include Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, and its sequel Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
The list does not include Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse from 2018 (somewhat surprisingly). I’m hesitant, therefore, to include its sequel Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The PGA could simply decide that it’ll likely win their Animated race and can be left off. However, Across was an even bigger financial success with glowing reviews. I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I’m giving Spidey one of the open spots.
For the tenth film, there’s plenty of hopefuls. Could this be where The Color Purple makes a last stand for viability with the Academy? Could The Iron Claw pop up? Perhaps PGA will go with an unexpected title that didn’t garner across the board critical acclaim, but has a high profile director. Napoleon or Ferrari come to my mind. Will Saltburn or May December get in?
Those are all, to varying degrees, feasible. I ultimately am going with Air from Ben Affleck. While I don’t think it gets in for BP at the Oscars, the reviews and overall feeling that this is a rock solid sports drama puts it in over some of the aforementioned others.
As for the animated race and their five contenders, we’ve already established that Spidey is in. Because of the international movies thing, you may not find freshly minted Golden Globe winner The Boy and the Heron here. That same logic could apply to Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget. We shall see.
Let’s get to the list of nominees and an alternate, shall we?
The SAG Awards aren’t the only nominations out this Wednesday. We have the Director of Guild of America (DGA) nods coming our way. They are usually an 80% indicator of who the Academy will name for its behind the camera prize.
In the past decade, the DGA quintet has matched the Academy’s on a 4 for 5 level in nine out of the last ten ceremonies. The only outlier is 2018 when it was 3 for 5. Note there is no 5 for 5 correlation.
So where does that leave this year’s DGA mix? For the last several weeks, I have had the following five filmmakers pegged for Oscar inclusion: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). It’s fair to say this is the consensus group among awards prognosticators.
Let’s assume there’s a 4 for 5 match. I believe Nolan, Scorsese, and Gerwig are safe bets. If anyone from that trio missed DGA, it would be considered a surprising omission.
Then I’d say Lanthimos is a near lock. My slight hesitation comes from him being left out in 2018 for The Favourite. Yet I’ll say he’s in.
That means I’m leaving Glazer on the cutting room floor and that makes some sense. The DGA has a history of omitting makers of foreign titles that the Academy recognizes. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car).
Don’t get me wrong. Glazer could get in as Zone is being hailed specifically for its directorial choices. I cannot, however, bring myself to match the DGA picks with my current Academy selections.
For the fifth slot, I’m going with Bradley Cooper for Maestro. That’s another title I believe will be appreciated for its directorial work perhaps more than other contenders like Alexander Payne (The Holdovers).
Celine Song (Past Lives) is certainly a threat. However, she’s the frontrunner for the DGA’s Outstanding Achievement in First-Time Feature Film race. She could be a double nominee, but I doubt it.
Here are my picks for all three feature DGA contests with an alternate selection as well.
Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
First-Time Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Raine Allen Miller, Rye Lane
A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One
Celine Song, Past Lives
Juel Taylor, They Cloned Tyrone
Alternate: Danny and Michael Philippou, Talk to Me
We have reached 2021 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
Beyond the headlines made during the 94th Academy Awards by Will Smith and Chris Rock, the other story was a little movie called CODA. The family drama from Apple TV built momentum beginning at the Sundance Film Festival early in the year. It culminated in a 3/3 performance on Oscar night – winning Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur). We can assume it would’ve made the final cut.
As for the other nine, let’s take a deeper dive:
Belfast
Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama picked up other key nods in Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), Original Song, and Sound. It didn’t emerge victorious in any, but its sole win came in Original Screenplay in a tight contest with Licorice Pizza.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The seven nominations were tied for third most and the screenplay trophy pushes it over.
Don’t Look Up
Adam McKay’s political satire was a streaming hit for Netflix with a megawatt all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. Even with the Power of the Meryl, it received just three other mentions besides Picture in Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing (going 0 for 4).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Critics were divided and Netflix likely would’ve thrown all their campaign muscle behind The Power of the Dog if the count was only five.
Drive My Car
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour Japanese drama easily won the International Feature Film race, but it also picked up other nods in Director and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but you could argue otherwise. I left it off due to the power of the others and the fact that foreign directors often get nominated without their films making the BP cut.
Dune
Denis Villeneuve was shockingly omitted from the Best Director derby. However, the sci-fi epic got the second most nominations at 10. It won a ceremony high 6 with Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. The other nods were Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The Villeneuve snub causes some doubt, but the sheer amount of victories makes the inclusion likely.
King Richard
Will Smith infamously had the true-life sports drama’s sole win in Actor and it was also nominated in Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Original Song, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Yet this is another one that was a very close call. Once again, I just couldn’t take out some upcoming entries.
Licorice Pizza
Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age dramedy also saw its maker nominated in Director and Original Screenplay. It went 0 for 3.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. That performance is a low showing for PTA’s pic and this was fairly easy to leave out of the ultimate quintet.
Nightmare Alley
Guillermo del Toro’s noirish thriller received three additional tech nods (losing all) in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. This was (by a considerable margin) the easiest to leave off since it was blanked in all other major races like directing and screenplay and any acting mentions.
The Power of the Dog
Jane Campion’s direction is responsible for the Netflix Western’s one win. The nom count was an even better than expected 12 that included Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, even though that 1/12 count is underwhelming to be kind. That’s still the most nods and Campion winning director seals it.
West Side Story
Steven Spielberg’s musical remake had its only win for Ariana DeBose (doing her thing in Supporting Actress). Five additional noms came for Mr. Spielberg, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I’ll admit this is a tough one and you could put Drive My Car or King Richard in its place. My gut says The Power of the Spielberg gives it a minor advantage.
That means my final 2021 five is:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
2022 is next! And then, I’m switching it up. From 2008 and working backwards, I’ll do the inverse of these posts. For those years, I’ll speculate on what an expanded lineup of 10 might look like.
If you missed my entries for 2009-20, have no fear! They’re here:
The Screen Actors Guild and the Director Guild announced their nominees today. Tomorrow it’s the Producers Guild time to reveal their 10 selections for outstanding films and 5 picks for animated feature.
This list often comes pretty darn close to mirroring the Academy’s eventual BP contenders. Over the past decade, here’s the matches:
2012 – 8/9
2013 – 8/9
2014 – 7/8
2015 – 7/8
2016 – 9/9
2017 – 7/9
2018 – 8/8
2019 – 9/9
2020 – 7/8
2021 – 8/10
That’s a pretty remarkable 78/87 over the past 10 ceremonies. We have seen some British or foreign pics make the Academy cut and not with PGA including last year with Drive My Car. Other recent examples include Amour, Darkest Hour, and The Father.
Some PGA nominees that Oscar voters didn’t honor include some pics with more of a popcorn flavor. They include Skyfall, Gone Girl, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Keeping that in mind, that’s why I have All Quiet on the Western Front on the outside looking in. It could certainly materialize, but gotta pay attention to history, eh? Same goes for Aftersun.
I could envision something like The Menu, Nope, or RRR appearing on the list though I’m not feeling bold enough to pick either. As with BP, I feel there’s a relatively safe 7: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick. In addition to the aforementioned hopefuls, the remaining three slots could be down to: Babylon (I feel it’s more possible here than with the Academy), Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (same), Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Whale, The Woman King, Women Talking.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking
Runner-Up: Babylon
As for the animated fare, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio should be way out front. For the other five possibilities, you just need to pick which one to eliminate.
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
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