Tag: S.S. Rajamouli

95th Academy Awards Predictions: January 16th Edition

It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.

All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.

Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:

The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.

On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.

In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.

You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)

12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)

15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)

8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)

4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)

7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)

5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)

10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Janes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)

2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)

7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nomnees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale

4 Nominations

Babylon, Tár

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Living, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nominations

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild

28th Annual Critics Choice Awards Winner Predictions

Airing only five days after the Golden Globes solidified some potential paths to Oscar glory, the Critics Choice Awards come our way on the CW tomorrow evening with Chelsea Handler hosting.

We have a number of feature film categories to pick and I’ll do so by forecasting a winner and a runner-up. I’m not going into details for these (frankly because I’m on a vacation this weekend), but a few quick questions to ponder:

Is this where Brendan Fraser (The Whale) gets a needed victory over Globe recipients Austin Butler (Elvis) or Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) to keep himself in the winner conversation? The same narratives apply to Everything Everywhere All at Once being named BP instead of Banshees and The Fabelmans. If Everything is going to make a stand, it should begin here and I’m projecting that it will. Will Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) begin a streak of trophies that the Globes started or will there be a mix of Supporting Actress honorees as we head toward Oscar?

I’ll have a recap up (probably Monday morning) with my thoughts, but here’s how I see this particular show shaking out!

Best Picture

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, RRR, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Director

The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Sarah Polley (Women Talking), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King), S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

PREDICTED WINNER: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actress

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

PREDICTED WINNER: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor

The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

PREDICTED WINNER: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

PREDICTED WINNER: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

PREDICTED WINNER: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár

PREDICTED WINNER: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, She Said, The Whale, Women Talking

PREDICTED WINNER: Women Talking

Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Acting Ensemble

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King, Women Talking

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Women Talking

Best Young Actor/Actress

The Nominees: Frankie Corio (Aftersun), Jalyn Hall (Till), Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans), Bella Ramsey (Catherine Called Birdy), Banks Repeta (Armageddon Time), Sadie Sink (The Whale)

PREDICTED WINNER: Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Frankie Corio, Aftersun

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild

PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Comedy

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Bros, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR

PREDICTED WINNER: RRR

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Cinematography

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Empire of Light, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

PREDICTED WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Babylon

Best Costume Design

The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King

PREDICTED WINNER: Elvis

Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Film Editing

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Hair and Makeup

The Nominees: Babylon, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Whale

PREDICTED WINNER: Elvis

Runner-Up: The Whale

Best Production Design

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

PREDICTED WINNER: Babylon

Runner-Up: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Score

The Nominees: Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking

PREDICTED WINNER: Babylon

Runner-Up: Women Talking

Best Song

“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise

PREDICTED WINNER: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Runner-Up: “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick

PREDICTED WINNER: Avatar: The Way of Water

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

That works out to the following movies garnering these numbers of wins:

5 Wins

Everything Everywhere All at Once

3 Wins

The Banshees of Inisherin

2 Wins

Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans, RRR

1 Win

Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

75th DGA Nominations Reaction

It wasn’t just the Screen Actors Guild revealing their list of nominees today as the Directors Guild of America (DGA) put out the five filmmakers vying for their top prize.

First things first. The three pictures that I believe have the best shot at taking BP at the Oscars all saw their conductors brought to this stage. That would be the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). This trio were all obvious ones to predict and that I did.

Yet I ultimately went 3 for 5. That’s because my picks of James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) and Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), makers of two popular commercial moneymakers, were left on the cutting room floor. Instead we got the surprising selection of Joseph Kosinski, maker of the year’s biggest moneymaker domestically with Top Gun: Maverick. I’ve only had Kosinski in my top 10 possibilities for the Academy on a couple of occasions. He’s never been in my high five.

The directing category at the Oscars usually match DGA on a 4 for 5 accuracy scale. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last time they matched 5 for 5. In other words, I wouldn’t rush to put Kosinski in the quintet.

My other miss was Todd Field, conductor of Tár. His inclusion was more anticipated and I had him as my runner-up.

Assuming we don’t get a total match, what’s the state of the Academy competition? The Daniels and McDonagh and Spielberg (despite the BAFTA snub) are probably safe and Field seems right up the Academy’s alley.

The fifth slot, while it could be Kosinski, is still available for Cameron or Luhrmann. Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) is beginning to get some ink. And we could absolutely still see a foreign director slide in like Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front. Longer shots in that vein are S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave).

Who got hurt by being left out today? Certainly Sarah Polley for Women Talking and Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. Either one of them could have used this as a momentum boost. Same for Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle.

The DGA’s will be presented on February 18th and my winning projection will be made shortly beforehand.

75th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Predictions

In addition to the SAG Awards announcing their nominees on Wednesday, we also have the Director Guild of America (DGA) revealing its five contenders for Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film.

This is a race that usually matches the Academy’s eventual 5 nominees with 80% accuracy. In the past decade, there’s been a 4 for 5 correlation in 8 of those years. There hasn’t been a 5 for 5 match since 2009.

Even though BAFTA shockingly left Steven Spielberg off its shortlist last week, he should make the cut here for The Fabelmans. It would also be quite unexpected for Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to miss for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

After that, it gets interesting. I do believe James Cameron is recognized for Avatar: The Way of Water. The DGA has recently named pics in the sci-fi genre that the Academy surprisingly ignored. Recent examples are Ridley Scott (The Martian) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).

On the flip side, the DGA has left off foreign filmmakers that the Academy does recognize. This includes Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) in the preceding two cycles. That could make the odds longer here for Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), or S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) than at the Oscars.

My hunch is that the trio of Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) are angling for the final two slots with Sarah Polley (Women Talking) as a potential spoiler. I’ve got Field in my Academy quintet right now but missing here.

DGA PREDICTIONS

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár

2022 Oscar Predictions: January 2nd Edition

My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.

While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.

In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.

While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.

In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.

We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)

13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Damien Chazelle, Babylon

S.S. Rajamouli, RRR

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Diego Calva, Babylon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)

4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)

7. EO (PR: 7) (E)

8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)

3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

She Said

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Babylon

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

2 Nominations

Living

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: December 26th Edition

My last Oscar Predictions for this calendar year comes with no changes in Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, or the screenplay competitions. Yet not all is quiet. I’m finally giving Netflix a BP entrant, but it’s not Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (though I considered it). All Quiet on the Western Front is in the 10 and that knocks out Triangle of Sadness.

Let’s talk Babylon. I came very close to dropping it from my BP list after its dismal box office performance and a C+ Cinemascore grade. It’s clinging to the race in 10th. I almost replaced it with The Whale (which has also received plenty of mixed reaction). I have a gut feeling that one of them still makes the cut and I’m leaning toward the former at the moment.

In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy’s work in Women Talking is out in favor of costar Jessie Buckley. That would mark her second nomination in as many years.

There’s new #1s in International Feature Film with All Quiet displacing Decision to Leave and Documentary Feature with Navalny leaping over All That Breathes.

And, of course, the shortlists released Wednesday are reflected in various categories below. I’ll have my first estimates in calendar year 2023 up next weekend as we inch closer to nomination morning!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Tár (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Babylon (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Whale (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (E)

13. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-3)

14. RRR (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

She Said

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: ) (-2)

10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (E)

9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)

8. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Menu (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elvis

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. She Said (PR: 2) (E)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Son

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)

4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Inu-Oh (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Sea Beast

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1 . All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)

7. EO (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joyland (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Klondike

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Navalny (PR: 2) (+1)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 1) (-1)

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fire of Love (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Descendant (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Janes (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bad Axe (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Good Night Oppy

Sr.

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nope

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Elvis (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Decision to Leave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Woman King

X

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

The Batman

White Noise

Tár

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Empire of Light

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Moonage Daydream (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nope

RRR

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Nope (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Everything Everywhere All at Once

RRR

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Good Night Oppy

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nods:

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

7 Nominations

Babylon, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Women Talking

4 Nominations

Tár

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, The Whale

2 Nominations

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Navalny, She Said, My Father’s Dragon, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

It has been two weeks since I updated my Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired in those 14 days. We’ve had the National Board of Review and American Film Institute release their best of lists while the Golden Globes and Critics Choice voters unveiled their nominees.

There is a change in BP in the 10th spot. Triangle of Sadness is back in as I’ve taken out The Whale. The bad news for that pic continues as I’ve demoted Brendan Fraser from 1st to 3rd in Actor. Make no mistake – I do believe he can still win. However, the last Best Actor victor whose movie wasn’t nominated was 13 years ago with Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart. That stat puts Austin Butler and Colin Farrell in the 1-2 spots as I do have their flicks in BP.

The various precursors have caused major movement in the wildly unpredictable Supporting Actress field. Claire Foy (Women Talking) missed the Globes and Critics Choice. She drops from 1st to 4th while Kerry Condon (who made both precursors) is now in 1st. Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are in the quintet with Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Hong Chau (The Whale again) falling out.

While Director and Actress have the same five, there’s a shift in Supporting Actor as Judd Hirsch joins his Fabelmans costar Paul Dano with Women Talking‘s Ben Whishaw on the outside looking in.

I would also note that RRR has gone from unranked status to 11th (knocking right on the door for BP).

We also have new #1’s in Documentary, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score. Scroll below to track all the movement!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tár (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Elvis (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Whale (PR: 8) (-5)

14. She Said (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Decision to Leave

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (E)

9. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rooney Mara, Women Talking

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)

10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Nina Hoss, Tár

Keke Palmer, Nope

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Menu (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. She Said (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Whale (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bones and All

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 6) (+2)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Bad Guys (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Strange World (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 4) (-3)

8. EO (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)

10. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Alcarras

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Navalany (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (+2)

4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Descendant (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sr. (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Retrograde (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 1) (-2)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Living (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Three Thousand Years of Longing

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elvis (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. X (PR: -1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Batman (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)

9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Living

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 7) (+1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+1)

10. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fabelmans

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. RRR (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies hitting these numbers in terms of nominations:

10 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin

7 Nominations

Elvis

6 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Women Talking

4 Nominations

Tár

3 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

2 Nominations

The Batman, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, RRR

1 Nomination

All Quiet on the Western Front, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King

Oscar Predictions: Last Film Show

The nation of India has seen three of their movies up for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars – 1957’s Mother India, 1988’s Salaam Bombay!, and Lagaan from 2001. That averages out to a nod every 18 years or so. They should be due for another.

However, it appears a gigantic opportunity was missed when India opted not to submit RRR for consideration. S.S. Rajamouli’s epic action pic (available on Netflix) has its enthusiastic champions among reviewers and audiences. Just this week, it was named in the foreign competition at the Golden Globes and for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards. There is growing buzz that it could land a nod with the Academy in BP. In other words, its home country should’ve made it their horse in the international derby. If they had, not only would RRR be close to a shoo-in for the quintet, it would be a favorite to take the prize over Decision to Leave and All Quiet on the Western Front and others.

India instead went with Pan Nalin’s Last Film Show. The coming-of-age drama premiered all the way back in the summer of 2021 at the Tribeca Film Festival. On paper, it makes sense why it was selected. Film sounds like more of a traditional pick than the wild RRR. The Rotten Tomatoes score is an impressive 95%. It has picked up kudos playing the festival circuit. However, it simply hasn’t picked up much steam and hasn’t shown up with any precursors.

Bottom line: India would be positioned for a fourth nominee (and potential victor) with RRR. Not with this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2022 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.

While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.

That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.

Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)

12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)

7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)

10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Smith, Emancipation

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)

10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Menu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (+1)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (E)

9. Strange World (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)

7. EO (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joyland (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Quiet Girl

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. Descendant (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sr. (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Retrograde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Last Flight Home

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emancipation

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elvis (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. X (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Amsterdam (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

She Said

White Noise

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Stand Up” from Till

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)

8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:

11 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

10 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

7 Nominations

Babylon, Women Talking

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

The Whale

4 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár

2 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King

New York Circles Tár

The New York Film Critics Circle have made their selections for the year’s best and that kicks off a flurry of regional awards coming our way in the days and weeks ahead. This particular critics group (as is the case with most) isn’t much of a barometer on who and what will win. It is, however, a decent glimpse of who and what could contend.

Todd Field’s Tár and Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin each earned two honors. The former was named Best Film with Cate Blanchett taking the Actress award. Eight of the last 10 NYFCC victors in Film went on to receive a BP Oscar nomination. Yet none of those movies won the big prize from the Academy. The last one that did was 2011’s The Artist. And that make sense here. Tár appears highly likely to make the BP cut though it isn’t much of a threat to take the gold. Five of the past 10 Actress recipients were nominated with only one winner. Who was that winner? Cate Blanchett for 2013’s Blue Jasmine. She could certainly do so again. This won’t be the only critics branch to name her.

Colin Farrell was Best Actor for Banshees and After Yang. Like Actress, half of the previous ten New York honorees made the Oscar quintet with two winners – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea). Farrell appears to be locked in a tight three-way race with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis). Every precursor like this helps a little. Banshees also won Best Screenplay. That’s another Academy three-way battle in Original Screenplay with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans.

The supporting fields are a bit more predictive as far as Academy matches. Eight of 10 Supporting Actor NYFCC takers were at the Oscars. That includes four winners in Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight). We could see another match with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Expect to hear his name a lot.

Supporting Actress, on the contrary, was more of a surprise. Keke Palmer’s work in Nope topped all rivals in a wide open field that’s hard to peg for Oscar prognosticating. 7 of 10 winners here made the big dance including the victorious Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Laura Dern (Marriage Story). I’ve yet to have Palmer in my top ten. I’m starting to wonder if she could get in the mix for her memorable performance in the sci-fi horror tale. I should note that NYFCC named Lupita Nyong’o Best Actress for Peele’s Us from 2019 and she came up short with Oscar voters.

The rest of the categories all showcased viable contenders in their respective competitions. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On picked up Animated Feature and I expect it to get love from the critics. Same with Non-Fiction Film and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (I have it ranked first in Oscar’s Documentary Feature). Poland’s EO was a slightly unexpected choice in Foreign Film over Decision to Leave (which I have pegged as the soft frontrunner for the Academy). Finally, Top Gun: Maverick aced Cinematography and it should get an Oscar nod there for the thrilling aerial camerawork.

Keep coming to the blog for all your awards news and I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up this Sunday!