Tag: Chris Rock

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 30th Edition

As August closes out and September dawns, film festival season is nearly upon us. Venice begins on Wednesday with Telluride playing out over Labor Day weekend. Between those two events, we are expected to get screenings and critical reaction for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Danny Boyle’s Ink, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime, Florian Zeller’s Bunker, Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care, Simon Stone’s Elsinore, Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter, and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard to name a few.

September 10th brings Toronto with their own premieres including Sian Heder’s Being Heumann, Chris Rock’s Misty Green, Susanna White’s Prima Facie, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and Bassam Tariq’s Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.

Needless to say you can expect a bunch of Oscar Prediction posts over the next three weeks. And if history is any guide, my next update in a couple weekends should look quite different.

Away from festival buzz, there was a significant piece of news since my last update two weeks ago. It was announced that Diane Warren is behind the title track to the upcoming By Any Means starring Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg. The songwriter has famously racked up 17 Best Original Song nominations without a win. She currently is up to nine noms in a row since 2017. It would be foolish to not include her in my five predicted tracks.

There’s not a ton of movement in the major races though it is a solid update for The Invite. Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the #1 spot in Adapted Screenplay over The Black Ball with the filmmaker entering the directorial quintet for the first time. She knocks out Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary).

You can read all the movement below and expect plenty of posts in the coming days and weeks as the festivals commence!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Debut (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Digger (PR: 11) (-1)

13. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elsinore (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Michael (PR: 15) (E)

16. Primetime (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (-1)

19. Werwulf (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Being Heumann (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (-1)

22. Josephine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

25. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fatherland

Artificial

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, Al of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (E)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (E)

14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (E)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)

5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)

11. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Primetime (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Artificial

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 3) (+2)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sense and Sensibility

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Possible Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mimesis (PR: 9) (E)

10. Silent Friend (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hoppers (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. American Doctor (PR: 2) (E)

3. NAZA (PR: Not Ranked)

4. 14th (PR: 3) (-1)

5. One in a Million (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuisance Bear (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rehearsals for Revolution (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

When a Witness Recants

Musk

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Debut

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicker (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rose (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Michael (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Is God Is (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Black Ball

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wildwood (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: Not Ranked)

4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“La Playa” from The Black Ball

TBD from Hexed

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

12 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord, The Invite

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Elsinore, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Disclosure Day, Michael, Rose. Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, By All Means, Clayface, Digger, Fatherland, Ink, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker. Wildwood

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 24 – Jimmy Fallon

Prior to taking over the Late Night and Tonight Show franchises, it was on SNL that Jimmy Fallon honed his skills. The Groundlings alum quickly established himself as a crowd favorite in a fertile era for the show with terrific impressions of Jerry Seinfeld, Robert De Niro, Regis Philbin, Mick Jagger, and even former SNL cast members Adam Sandler and Chris Rock. His talents perhaps shone brightest on The Barry Gibb Show portraying a mentally unbalanced version of The Bee Gees frontman alongside his brother Robin (Justin Timberlake), who never had anything to add.

Nearly halfway into his run, Fallon nabbed the Weekend Update desk spot alongside Tina Fey. It made for one of the strongest duos to deliver the fake news. Along the way, the future talk show host tried his best not to break during classic sketches such as “More Cowbell” and Debbie Downer’s visit to Disney. #23 will be up soon!

Jimmy Fallon

Years on the Show: 1998-2004

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: A Prelude

SNL just began its 50th season and a grand televised celebration is anticipated this spring. I have been a huge follower of the iconic sketch comedy show my whole life. That includes devouring books about its history and memoirs from former cast members.

To mark its half century in existence, I have decided to make a list of my top 50 cast members in the show’s history. Let’s establish an important ground rule. This list covers each member’s time on the show only and not what they did before or after. There’s obvious examples of Not Ready for Prime Time Players who had terrific careers following their stints (some of them short-lived) on Saturday Night Live. Robert Downey, Jr. and Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Ben Stiller and Damon Wayans. Chris Rock and Christopher Guest. You won’t find them in my top 50, but they’ve certainly had incredible contributions to film, TV, and stand-up.

I wrote down 70 performers of the 167 total cast members and whittled it down to 50. Not all original members from 1975 made the cut (apologies to Laraine Newman and Garrett Morris). There are current cast members who almost made it like Mikey Day, Ego Nwodim, and James Austin Johnson. In between there were those I struggled to leave off like Beck Bennett, Nora Dunn, Leslie Jones, Chris Kattan, Taran Killam, Tim Meadows, Kyle Mooney, Joe Piscopo, and Rob Schneider. There were a couple that were just never quite my cup of tea… Jim Breuer and Jon Lovitz.

Despite the tough subtractions, the forthcoming list is a treasure trove of talented comedic performers who have kept the show running for half a century. These posts will be a countdown from 50 to 1 (yep, 50 posts) that’ll run through the course of the 50th season. Stay tuned!

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

Nearly four and a half years ago, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were riding high with Bad Boys for Life. The third entry in the buddy cop franchise that began nearly 30 years ago set series best marks with $73 million over the four-day MLK frame in January 2020. It ended up with just over $200 million domestically.

And then things got weird. Life was the last mega-grosser before the pandemic hit and stalled the industry for many months. Smith, meanwhile, became embroiled in the infamous Oscar slap controversy two years later with Chris Rock. The directors of part 3 – Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah – followed Life up with Batgirl which Warner Bros shockingly decided to shelve for eternity.

So it kind of feels like there’s a lot riding on Bad Boys: Ride or Die when it opens June 7th. Smith and Lawrence are back alongside Joe Pantoliano, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Paola Núñez, Jacob Scipio, and DJ Khaled. The Batgirl makers return as well. Newcomers to part 4 include Tiffany Haddish, Eric Dane, Ioan Gruffudd, Rhea Seehorn, Melanie Liburd, and Tasha Smith (pulling an Aunt Viv and replacing Theresa Randle as Lawrence’s wife).

Bad Boys hopes to shake up a summer season where plenty of titles have fallen below expectations. This is also the first test of Smith’s star power post slap. I do not expect it to match the earnings of its predecessor. Part 3 took in $62 million for the three-day portion of its premiere. Sony would probably be satisfied with that and it would quell any “Smith’s career is dead” chatter.

I’m estimating a start that might not totally quell that conversation in the mid to late 40s.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million

For my The Watchers prediction, click here:

The Watchers Box Office Prediction

Saw X Box Office Prediction

Nearly 20 years after the original was an unexpected box office hit, Saw X arrives on September 29th. It’s a back to basics affair with Tobin Bell returning as Jigsaw with the events taking place between 2004’s Saw and 2005’s Saw II. Kevin Greutert, who helmed 2009’s Saw VI and 2010’s Saw 3D, directs. Shawnee Smith returns to the series and other supporting players include Synnøve Macody Lund, Steven Brand, and Michael Beach.

The tenth entry was supposed to open right at Halloween on October 27th before Lionsgate announced its late September bump. X is out two and a half years after Spiral: From the Book of Saw, Chris Rock’s take on the franchise which set historic lows. COVID didn’t help, but Spiral did just that at the box office with a mere $8 million opening and $16 million eventual domestic gross. Prior to that, 2017’s Jigsaw managed a $16 million premiere and $38 million eventual take. That’s a far cry from the high point debut of Saw III in 2006 at $33 million.

Saw X will be lucky make half of that. I certainly don’t think it’ll fall under Spiral, but low to mid teens might be all it manages.

Saw X opening weekend prediction: $15.7 million

For my The Creator prediction, click here:

The Creator Box Office Prediction

For my PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie prediction, click here:

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie Box Office Prediction

For my Dumb Money prediction, click here:

Dumb Money Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Rustin

As the gay activist instrumental in organizing Martin Luther King Jr.’s March on Washington, Colman Domingo has been seen as a serious Best Actor possibility since Rustin was announced. The biopic has premiered in Telluride prior to its November 3rd limited theatrical release and November 17th Netflix streaming start. George C. Wolfe, in his follow-up to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, directs with a supporting cast including Chris Rock, Glynn Turman, Ami Ameen, CCH Pounder, Michael Potts, Jeffrey Wright, and Audra McDonald.

Festival reviews indicate Domingo should find himself among the lead Actor quintet and that’s even with the already considerable competition (it’s going to be tricky to figure out who gets snubbed). The pic itself sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

It will be interesting to see Netflix’s campaign. They’re sure to go all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro and their BP blitz for Rustin could be more muted. There’s certainly the chance that Domingo represents its only nod (though Lenny Kravitz has a track called “Road to Freedom” that could make it). If the love extends to supporting, perhaps Turman contends. I’m skeptical about that. As for Domingo, it sure seems like the voters will go his way for a spot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2021: The Final Five

We have reached 2021 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

Beyond the headlines made during the 94th Academy Awards by Will Smith and Chris Rock, the other story was a little movie called CODA. The family drama from Apple TV built momentum beginning at the Sundance Film Festival early in the year. It culminated in a 3/3 performance on Oscar night – winning Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur). We can assume it would’ve made the final cut.

As for the other nine, let’s take a deeper dive:

Belfast

Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama picked up other key nods in Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), Original Song, and Sound. It didn’t emerge victorious in any, but its sole win came in Original Screenplay in a tight contest with Licorice Pizza.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The seven nominations were tied for third most and the screenplay trophy pushes it over.

Don’t Look Up

Adam McKay’s political satire was a streaming hit for Netflix with a megawatt all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. Even with the Power of the Meryl, it received just three other mentions besides Picture in Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing (going 0 for 4).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Critics were divided and Netflix likely would’ve thrown all their campaign muscle behind The Power of the Dog if the count was only five.

Drive My Car

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour Japanese drama easily won the International Feature Film race, but it also picked up other nods in Director and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but you could argue otherwise. I left it off due to the power of the others and the fact that foreign directors often get nominated without their films making the BP cut.

Dune

Denis Villeneuve was shockingly omitted from the Best Director derby. However, the sci-fi epic got the second most nominations at 10. It won a ceremony high 6 with Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. The other nods were Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The Villeneuve snub causes some doubt, but the sheer amount of victories makes the inclusion likely.

King Richard

Will Smith infamously had the true-life sports drama’s sole win in Actor and it was also nominated in Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Original Song, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Yet this is another one that was a very close call. Once again, I just couldn’t take out some upcoming entries.

Licorice Pizza

Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age dramedy also saw its maker nominated in Director and Original Screenplay. It went 0 for 3.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. That performance is a low showing for PTA’s pic and this was fairly easy to leave out of the ultimate quintet.

Nightmare Alley

Guillermo del Toro’s noirish thriller received three additional tech nods (losing all) in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. This was (by a considerable margin) the easiest to leave off since it was blanked in all other major races like directing and screenplay and any acting mentions.

The Power of the Dog

Jane Campion’s direction is responsible for the Netflix Western’s one win. The nom count was an even better than expected 12 that included Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, even though that 1/12 count is underwhelming to be kind. That’s still the most nods and Campion winning director seals it.

West Side Story

Steven Spielberg’s musical remake had its only win for Ariana DeBose (doing her thing in Supporting Actress). Five additional noms came for Mr. Spielberg, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. I’ll admit this is a tough one and you could put Drive My Car or King Richard in its place. My gut says The Power of the Spielberg gives it a minor advantage.

That means my final 2021 five is:

Belfast

CODA

Dune

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

2022 is next! And then, I’m switching it up. From 2008 and working backwards, I’ll do the inverse of these posts. For those years, I’ll speculate on what an expanded lineup of 10 might look like.

If you missed my entries for 2009-20, have no fear! They’re here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five
Best Picture 2010: The Final Five
Best Picture 2011: The Final Five
Best Picture 2012: The Final Five
Best Picture 2013: The Final Five
Best Picture 2014: The Final Five
Best Picture 2015: The Final Five
Best Picture 2016: The Final Five
Best Picture 2017: The Final Five
Best Picture 2018: The Final Five
Best Picture 2019: The Final Five
Best Picture 2020: The Final Five

Oscar Predictions: Emancipation

Will Smith rather notoriously won his first Best Actor Oscar last year for King Richard. His victory was not a surprise. Smith’s onstage slap of Chris Rock approximately 30 minutes before he received the gold statue was.

The superstar actor’s career has taken a hit since with some canceled or delayed projects. It has not altered the release of Emancipation. The historical action drama casts Smith as slave Whipped Peter, whose Civil War era photograph has become an iconic image. Antoine Fuqua, best known for shoot-em-ups like Olympus Has Fallen and The Equalizer pics, directs. The supporting cast includes Ben Foster, Charmaine Bingwa, Steven Ogg, Mustafa Shakir, and Timothy Hutton.

Emancipation is out in limited fashion tomorrow prior to a December 9th streaming rollout on Apple TV (they paid a whopping $130 million for the rights). The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mixed 63%.

There is praise for the performances, including Smith. An early consensus is that the action works better than some of the dramatic elements. Bottom line: this doesn’t sound line much of an awards contender whether there had been The Slap or no slap. One exception could be Robert Richardson’s cinematography. He’s a three-time winner for JFK, The Aviator, and Hugo. Richardson won’t get a fourth podium trip, but making the cut isn’t out of the question. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Amsterdam Review

David O. Russell’s Amsterdam exasperates more than it fascinates. Opening with the tagline “A lot of this actually happened”, the brief explorations of American history between the World Wars hint at a compelling narrative. Wanting to go down a Wikipedia rabbit hole afterwards doesn’t necessarily make for a gratifying experience.

Dr. Burt Berendsen (Christian Bale) is a member of New York high society through marriage. His snooty in-laws and high maintenance wife (Andrea Riseborough) ship him off to what will become World War I in 1918. Under the command of the kindly Bill Meekins (Ed Begley Jr.), the good doc practices his skills for an all black regiment. They must wear French uniforms since the American forces aren’t integrated. That’s a part that actually happened. Burt makes fast friends with Harold Woodsman (John David Washington). They fight together and are seriously wounded together. Burt is given a glass eye that’s often used for screwball comedy effect. Their injuries introduce them to peculiar nurse Valerie (Margot Robbie), who takes the soldier’s battle scars (such as the metal embedded in their flesh) and turns it into surrealistic art. Burt, Harold, and Valerie form a close bond including the romantic sort for the latter two. The trio live a joyous existence in the title city until Burt returns to the Big Apple. Harold eventually follows suit to become an attorney. The men stay friends and colleagues while Valerie’s whereabouts are unknown.

Fifteen years later, the U.S. is in a depression. Our two New Yorkers have an even more pressing issue. Former war commander Meekins (now a Senator) turns up dead and mysteriously so. His daughter Elizabeth (Taylor Swift, in a performance that will surely generate memes) enlists dad’s former soldiers to investigate. This snooping leads to a vast government conspiracy – some of which falls under the actually happened headline. The case additionally leads them back to Valerie and an all-star cast beyond Bale, Washington, and Robbie.

Chris Rock is a member of the French uniformed clad force. Michael Shannon and Mike Myers are intelligence officers amusingly masquerading as bird experts. Zoe Saldana, in the picture’s most underdeveloped role, helps perform autopsy work and is a potential love interest for Burt. The most intriguing character is General Gill Dillenbeck (Robert De Niro), a combat hero being recruited for fascist propagandist purposes. Russell’s screenplay gives De Niro a noteworthy role to play with (this is the fourth collaboration between them). The legendary actor has done some of his finest 21st century work with the filmmaker.

The political potboiler aspects kick into gear when Dillenbeck pops up for the second half. That’s when Amsterdam improves. The first half feels like Russell’s attempt to do a Wes Anderson or Coen Bros type whimsical comedy and he fails the test. There’s a lot of characters crowding the scene. Rami Malek is an affluent textile magnet with connections to Valerie. Anya Taylor-Joy is his wife, who has a funny fangirl crush on Dillenbeck. Alessandro Nivola and Matthias Schoenaerts are detectives assigned to track the lead trio.

Once Russell gets to what Amsterdam is really about (with some unmistakable current events overtones), I realized lots of these famous faces and subplots could’ve been jettisoned for a more focused approach. Of all the names, Bale (always committed) and De Niro come out best. The director’s eye for the solid material keeps getting dislodged – like Burt’s fake one. This makes it questionable as to whether it’s worth seeing. More of the stuff that actually happened and not the forced whimsy would have been a reasonable start.

**1/2 (out of four)

Emancipation Enters the Oscar Race

In an alternative universe, Emancipation might be in my top 10 predicted Best Picture nominees. I could potentially be discussing Will Smith’s chances of being the first back to back acting winner since Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994.

I didn’t think this alternative universe could be a potential reality in the 2022 awards season. In 2021, Apple TV beat Netflix and others to the punch as CODA was the inaugural streaming Best Picture winner. For a while, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon appeared to be Apple’s best shot at making it two years in a row. That’s until it got pushed to 2023. In recent weeks, there was speculation that Ridley Scott’s Napoleon starring Joaquin Phoenix could make a jump to 2022. It wasn’t to be.

This has left Apple without a legit across the board Oscar player… until maybe today. Why? The streamer announced that Antoine Fuqua’s historical drama Emancipation will hit theaters for an awards qualifying run on December 2nd and then be available for home viewing on December 9th. The trailer was unveiled this morning.

And in case you’re still wondering why I’m skeptical… two words: The Slap. Yes, the slap heard around the globe when Chris Rock presented Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards and cracked a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith. And, of course, slap provider Will Smith giving his acceptance speech a few minutes later when he was victorious in Best Actor for King Richard.

Since then, many of Smith’s planned projects have entered turnaround status. Emancipation, in which he plays a slave who joins the Union Army, was already filmed. And Apple made the surprising decision in early October to get it out two months later. This surely means Smith will be subject to interviews where he’ll address The Slap sooner than later.

So… the obvious question: can Smith get nominated? Can the film itself do so in other categories? Even though the star resigned from the Academy in the aftermath of the incident, he can still be nominated (and he can attend if invited by other members). So while the short answer is yes… the real answer is more complicated.

My gut is that Smith’s work in Emancipation would have to be undeniably awards worthy to make the final five. Even that could be a stretch. Time heals controversies and not much time has passed. As for the film itself, it could surely garner nods from Best Picture on down (I’m curious if Ben Foster gets any chatter for Supporting Actor). Yet it starts off at a unique disadvantage.

We won’t know until reviews start surfacing and that could be a few weeks. I can only assume Apple will give this a major push for consideration. It’s a campaign that is an uphill battle for reasons unfathomable just a few months ago.