To generously take a bowl is half super approach, Jerry Seinfeld’s Unfrosted features stand-up Kyle Dunnigan doing a pretty killer Walter Cronkite impression. His anchor recounts the news with trademark authority followed by darkly amusing off the air grumblings about his love life and alcoholism. Later on, Dunnigan follows up with an impressive Johnny Carson takeoff. There’s lots of comedians and comedic performers in the legendary Mr. Seinfeld’s directorial debut for Netflix. Most of them don’t get the chance to nail their brief screen time like Mr. Dunnigan. A lot of Unfrosted, a mostly fictional account of how Pop-Tarts came to be, consists of stale humor with too many subplots competing against one another.
Even 96 minutes feels long since there’s barely enough witty material for the 22 minutes Jerry used to work in. He plays Bob Cabana, a high level exec at Kellogg’s in 1963. This is one of those screenplays (by Seinfeld and his frequent collaborators Spike Feresten, Andy Robin, and Barry Marder) that constantly reminds us it’s set during that decade in increasingly lame ways. Along with his boss Edsel Kellogg III (Jim Gaffigan) and Melissa McCarthy’s NASA scientist turned cereal conglomerate employee, they are in a race to produce the best toasted pastry treat. In Battle Creek, Michigan, the combat lines are drawn with their rival Post led by socialite Marjorie Post (Amy Schumer). Such lines are not so subtly tied to another race – the space one – of that era.
Rhythms of Unfrosted becomes familiar in short order – a joke or two that work about a given subplot (like the correlation with the nation’s trip to the moon) that get overused swiftly. There’s bursts of inspiration like Dunnigan’s grousing. Bill Burr’s take on JFK is also a delight. Most of the time I wasn’t blown away by what else the overfilled screenplay had to say.
Since this is Seinfeld we’re talking about, there’s lots of funny people popping in for a day or two on the set. Hugh Grant is the very real Thurl Ravenscroft, a true Shakespearean thespian who voiced Tony the Tiger. The Kellogg gang recruits a hodgepodge of kitschy historical figures including fitness guru Jack LaLanne (James Marsden), Sea Monkeys maker and maybe Nazi Harold von Braunhut (Thomas Lennon), and Chef Boy Ardee (Bobby Moynihan) to develop the product. I could go on and on. Mixing all these talents together is bound to produce some amusing highlights and it does on occasion, but not nearly enough. Sometimes the satire totally misses like when it attempts to connect a mascot uprising to January 6th.
A lot of Unfrosted probably sounded better while Seinfeld and crew were discussing it over Zoom. Most of it might produce more guffaws if its Cronkite impersonator were handling the delivery.
You might be familiar with his TV work, but Jerry Seinfeld’s cinematic output is limited to the 2002 doc Comedian and 2007’s animated Bee Movie. He makes his directorial debut and stars in Unfrosted, which loosely tells the story of how Pop-Tarts came into our world. The cast is an impressive mix of comedic talents including Melissa McCarthy, Jim Gaffigan, Hugh Grant, Amy Schumer, and many more that are tagged in this write-up.
Premiering on Netflix this weekend, reviews are finally popping up. The late embargo is explained by the troubling 18% Rotten Tomatoes score. Indicating a rare misfire for the small screen legend, this big screen product origin tale (a popular of genre lately) was never seen as an Oscar player. Yet considering the talent onboard, Golden Globe possibilities in the Musical/Comedy derbies seemed possible. Those appear to be toast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Warner Bros hopes audiences will take a look and then they’ll see pure dollar signs when Wonka opens December 15th. Timothee Chalamet takes over the iconic title role already filled by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2015. The musical fantasy comes from Paul King, best known for Paddington and its sequel. Costars include Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Boynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant.
An origin story about Roald Dahl’s eccentric chocolatier, the $125 million budgeted confection is generating mostly strong reviews at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hoping to sell lots of golden tickets, it could experience small declines in the holiday weekends ahead.
That may mean its debut isn’t gigantic even though it could be solid. The rosiest out of the gate projections could be in the mid 40s to even $50 million. I’ll say it starts in the mid 30s but word-of-mouth and the time of year could propel it to impressive holds in the future.
Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.
The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).
Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.
One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount hopes audiences are game for a night of fantasy mixed with action and comedy when Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves debuts March 31st. Based on the role playing game that debuted nearly a half century ago and inspired many filmmakers and scribes, Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley (who made 2018’s Game Night) co-direct. Chris Pine and Michelle Rodriguez headline a cast that also includes Regé-Jean Page, Justice Smith, Sophia Lillis, Chloe Coleman, and Hugh Grant.
With a reported budget north of $150 million, this is a gamble for the studio. While the IP is certainly well-known, a previous cinematic rendering did not fare well. A 2000 version featuring Thora Birch, Marlon Wayans, and Jeremy Irons from New Line Cinema made a sorry $15 million domestically.
Nearly a quarter century later, this Dragons tale appears to have more heat behind it. After premiering at South by Southwest, word-of-mouth is positive and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 86% (the 2000 pic had 10%).
Most forecasts have this between $25-30 million for a so-so start considering the price tag (this will clearly need sturdy overseas earnings to turn a profit). My feeling is this could exceed the current projections and get to the low or mid 30s.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million
A year ago, Everything Everywhere All at Once premiered at the South by Southwest, therefore skipping the normal autumn film festivals in favor of the Austin event. It now appears on the precipice of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. We aren’t looking at the same storyline with SXSW in 2023 with its debut picture Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. Could it have a role at all to play in next year’s awards mix?
It might. Based on the nearly half century old tabletop game that inspired many a filmmaker and writer, Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley (who made 2018’s Game Night) direct. The cast includes Chris Pine, Michelle Rodriguez, Regé-Jean Page, Justice Smith, Sophia Lillis, Chloe Coleman, and Hugh Grant. Early fest reviews are encouraging as the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% based on the limited reaction. The critical takes indicate this will appeal to die-hards of the source material and neophytes.
I certainly don’t think we’re looking at two years in a row of the likely BP winner coming from SXSW. However, Dungeons (out stateside on March 31) is being particularly praised for its Visual Effects and Production Design. I wouldn’t completely count this out to be a contender in either category (especially the former). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham’s violently comedic cinematic partnership continues on March 3rd with Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. The spy pic reunites the director and lead nearly two years after their fourth collaboration Wrath of Man. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, and Hugh Grant (who has appeared in Ritchie’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Gentlemen).
Fortune has not been paved with a smooth road to domestic release. It was first slated for stateside distribution in early 2022. However, the film’s depiction of Ukrainian baddies scuttled the premiere due to the nation’s conflict with Russia. Lionsgate picked up the rights and recently announced the early March output. It has already been out in numerous territories with $30 million in the bank. Reviews are so-so with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This hasn’t had much time for a spirited marketing campaign. In May of 2021, Wrath of Man managed just over $8 million when theaters were deep in the midst of the pandemic. However, it debuted on nearly 3000 screens while Fortune is pegged for around 2000.
There’s also Creed III which should siphon away plenty of potential moviegoers. I believe the tale of Fortune‘s gross will be a mid single digits start.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre opening weekend prediction: $4 million
Director Guy Ritchie returns to the genre that made him known in the first place with crime comedy The Gentlemen next weekend. Matthew McConaughey headlines the pic that was already released in the United Kingdom on New Year’s Day to OK results. Costars include Charlie Hunnam, Henry Golding, Michelle Dockery, Jeremy Strong, Eddie Marsan, Colin Farrell, and Hugh Grant. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 75% with most reviewers claiming it doesn’t quite match the quality of earlier titles with similar plot themes.
Over 20 years ago, Ritchie burst onto the indie scene with his humorous gangster tale Long, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels and followed it up with the successful Snatch. Later efforts in the genre like Revolver and RocknRolla failed to make a stateside impact. Over the past decade, the auteur has veered into blockbuster territory with the Sherlock Holmes franchise and last year’s massive hit Aladdin.
As for its lead, McConaughey is badly in need of a solid performer. His filmography over the past few years has been littered with bombs (Gold, The Dark Tower, White Boy Rick, Serenity, The Beach Bum).
I suspect that The Gentlemen won’t be it. That said, it should certainly make more than Revolver (which didn’t get a stateside wide release) or RocknRolla (which topped out at $5 million). My forecast has McConaughey and company just below or just topping double digits for its start. I’ll go with the former.
The Gentlemen opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million
In a week filled with Oscar precursor activity, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award nominees will be announced tomorrow morning. This comes just two days following the reveal of the Golden Globe nods.
As you’re likely aware, this particular ceremony is made up of voters from the card carrying acting community. The top race is not honoring the Best Picture of the year. Instead, it’s bestowing the trophy for the favorite ensemble cast. This explains why, in this decade, the Oscar winner for BP and the winner here have matched only 4 of 9 times.
Let’s break it down in each category as I reveal my anticipated nominees with a first and second alternate. I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did and how the nominations could impact the Academy’s thought process.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The SAG voters are a tricky bunch to predict and the Ensemble race presents at least a dozen pictures that I feel could make the cut. When predicting the nominees, I’ll divide into three tiers that relate to the impending Oscar nods:
Our first tier consists of movies that are widely expected to be Best Picture nominees and contenders that might potentially win. That list would be The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. I believe the first three here are close to guarantees for attention here. If any of them miss out, it’ll be widely reported as a surprising snub.
Our second tier consists of movies that are legitimate players for Best Picture nominations, but are unlikely to win. This list includes Bombshell, The Farewell, Jojo Rabbit, and Little Women. An argument could be made that Women would be most obvious to get in. Yet I think this could give Jojo the boost it needs for greater Academy attention.
Our third tier consists of movies that are long shot contenders for Oscar attention. We usually see one of these get a SAG nod. This list includes Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Hustlers, Knives Out, and Waves. The trendy pick here is Knives as it should be quite fresh on the minds of voters. Waves would be the largest beneficiary since it’s received scant awards chatter lately. I have a hunch that Dolemite could register with the actors branch here.
Predicted Nominees
Dolemite Is My Name
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
First Alternate – Little Women
Second Alternate – Knives Out
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
The last five years of nominees have shown one 5 for 5 match with Oscar in 2016. The other four years gave us 4 out of the 5 eventual Academy nominees. In other words, this race is a massive indication of where voters may go.
2019 presents a challenge as there are nearly dozen legit contenders in the mix. Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix feel safe. The rest is a free for all.
Keeping with my Dolemite theme, the SAG branch may feel tempted to name the legendary Eddie Murphy here. I feel more confident about his inclusion than Adam Sandler, despite his early precursor attention.
Then I’m picking two spots between Christian Bale, Antonio Banderas, Robert De Niro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Taron Egerton, Paul Walter Hauser, and Jonathan Pryce. Not an easy task. The Globes notably snubbed De Niro. If that occurs here, expect lots of talk about his dwindling Oscar chances. I’ll say he makes it in along with Leo.
Predicted Nominees
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
First Alternate – Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Second Alternate – Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Renee Zellweger and Scarlett Johansson feel like shoo-ins. The rest is uncertain. While Charlize Theron in Bombshell looks good for Oscar, I don’t think it’s a slam dunk she’s named here. My feeling that Little Women gets snubbed in Ensemble could filter down to Saoirse Ronan and her chances. Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, and Lupita Nyong’o are all in the mix.
SAG has given us surprise contenders before, like Sarah Silverman in 2015’s I Smile Back. Could we see something in that order with Mary Kay Place (Diane) or Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell)?
Predicted Nominees
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
First Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Second Alternate – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Brad Pitt and The Irishman double play of Al Pacino and Joe Pesci should see their names called. Here’s a category where a non Oscar nominee can get in – think Hugh Grant in 2016’s Florence Foster Jenkins or Steve Carell in 2017’s Battle of the Sexes. That spot could go to someone like Wesley Snipes if my Dolemite love turns out real. There’s also Shia LaBeouf in Honey Boy, Song Kang-Ho in Parasite, or Sterling K. Brown for Waves.
Yet I suspect the final two slots will be between Willem Dafoe, Tom Hanks, and Anthony Hopkins. I’ll readily admit it feels awfully strange to predict actors will leave Hanks out, but I’ll go there with trepidation.
Predicted Nominees
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
First Alternate – Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Second Alternate – Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
SAG threw everyone for a loop last year when they didn’t nominate Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. She ended up taking home the Globe and Oscar. Prior to that, the previous nine SAG winners here also were victorious with the Academy.
Truth be told, this is the category I fear I could go 2 for 5 in. Laura Dern and Jennifer Lopez seem relatively safe. And then it’s picking three slots among Kathy Bates, Annette Bening, Scarlett Johansson (I do believe this is her best opportunity for a double nod), Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie, Zhao Shuzhen, and Maggie Smith. Good luck cracking this one!
Predicted Nominees
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
First Alternate – Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Second Alternate – Annette Bening, The Report
That does it for now! Expect a recap coming your way at some juncture tomorrow…
My recap of the summer seasons from 30, 20, and 10 years ago continues with 1999. It was a banner year for film in general with many acclaimed features hitting theaters at the turn of the century.
If you missed my previous post recounting 1989, you can find it here:
As with other look backs, I’ll give the top 10 highest earners along with other notable pics and some flops. Interestingly, the list begins at #10 with probably the most high profile misfire:
10. WildWildWest
Domestic Gross: $113 million
The July 4th holiday weekend had literally become reserved space for Will Smith. IndependenceDay in 1996 and MeninBlack the following year both came out in that frame and ended up as their summer’s biggest blockbusters. This update of a 1960s TV series cast the Fresh Prince with Kevin Kline and reunited him with MIB director Barry Sonnenfeld. Critics and audiences weren’t impressed.
9. NottingHill
Domestic Gross: $116 million
Julia Roberts and Hugh Grant were a rom com match in heaven with this well reviewed pic from the writer of FourWeddingsandaFuneral. Our lead actress isn’t finished yet…
8. TheBlairWitchProject
Domestic Gross: $140 million
Truly a phenomenon upon release, this handheld camera indie supernatural horror tale was made for a reported $60,000. Many audience members thought it was a real documentary and it scared up nearly $250 million worldwide and spawned two lesser regarded follow-ups.
7. RunawayBride
Domestic Gross: $152 million
I told you we weren’t done with Julia Roberts. This rom com reunited her with her PrettyWoman director Garry Marshall and costar Richard Gere. It might not have captured the acclaim of that flick, but it made plenty of cash.
6. TheMummy
Domestic Gross: $155 million
Loosely updating the 1932 classic, TheMummy managed to turn Brendan Fraser into a temporary action star. Two sequels followed and a spin-off (TheScorpionKing) that turned Dwayne Johnson into an action hero.
5. BigDaddy
Domestic Gross: $163 million
20 summers ago marked the height of Adam Sandler’s box office potency. BigDaddy remains his biggest live action grosser of all time.
4. Tarzan
Domestic Gross: $171 million
Disney was still knocking traditional animated hits out summer after summer. Tarzan managed to nab Phil Collins an Oscar for a song contribution.
The original Powers came out two summers prior. While it performed decently in theaters, it became a massive hit with its home video release. Due to that, this sequel made more in its opening weekend than part 1 achieved in its entire theatrical run. A third edition arrived in 2002.
2. TheSixthSense
Domestic Gross: $293 million
An unexpected smash, this is the movie that introduced the world to M. Night Shyamalan and the line “I see dead people”. Bruce Willis didn’t get an Oscar nod, but the picture itself did. So too did Shyamalan’s direction, screenplay, and the supporting performances of Haley Joel Osment and Toni Collette.
1. StarWars: Episode1 – ThePhantomMenace
Domestic Gross: $431 million
Its reputation certainly hasn’t grown through the years, but George Lucas’s return to the cherished franchise after 16 years easily ruled the summer. We’re still haunted by Jar Jar two decades later.
And now more some other notable titles from the ‘99 season:
AmericanPie
Domestic Gross: $102 million
The raunchy teen comedy was a surprise smash that introduced us to a new group of young actors and spawned three theatrical sequels and four direct to DVD sequels.
TheHaunting
Domestic Gross: $91 million
Jan de Bont followed up mega hits Speed and Twister with this critically unappreciated remake of TheHauntingofHillHouse. It didn’t reach the heights of those blockbusters, but came close to the century mark domestically.
DeepBlueSea
Domestic Gross: $73 million
Renny Harlin’s tale involving sharks that could potentially cure Alzheimer’s (yes it’s absurd), Sea is best known for a killer death scene involving Samuel L. Jackson.
TheThomasCrownAffair
Domestic Gross: $69 million
Arriving smack dab in the middle of his Bond run, this remake of Steve McQueen’s heist film was a solid midsize performer.
Bowfinger
Domestic Gross: $66 million
The box office grosses were decent, but Bowfinger gave us a satisfying pairing of two comedic legends in Eddie Murphy and Steve Martin.
EyesWideShut
Domestic Gross: $55 million
The swan song of Stanley Kubrick (who died shortly before release), this dreamlike sexual drama with then married Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman polarized audiences and critics.
SouthPark – Bigger, LongerandUncut
Domestic Gross: $52 million
The landmark Comedy Central show from Trey Parker and Matt Stone got the big screen treatment and translated well to the multiplex, even nabbing an Oscar nod for Best Original Song (“Blame Canada”).
TheIronGiant
Domestic Gross: $23 million
A commercial failure at the time, this animated pic marked the debut of Brad Bird who went onto helm Pixar classics. Its reputation has grown significantly in time.
Now… let’s recount some flops:
MickeyBlueEyes
Domestic Gross: $33 million
Hugh Grant had a $100 million plus earner with NottingHill, but this mob themed comedy was not a hit.
MysteryMen
Domestic Gross: $29 million
Ben Stiller had the previous summer’s largest comedy with There’sSomethingAboutMary. This failed superhero spoof didn’t even make half its budget back stateside.
TheAstronaut’sWife
Domestic Gross: $10 million
This Johnny Depp sci fi thriller is not a title discussed often in his filmography or Charlize Theron’s. There’s a reason.
DudleyDo–Right
Domestic Gross: $9 million
TheMummy provided Brendan Fraser with a franchise. This cartoon remake couldn’t hit double digits.
And that wraps my recap! Look for 2009 on the blog shortly…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 