Tag: Regé-Jean Page

April 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will attempt to scare up decent business as the weekend’s major new wide release, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks to rule the charts for a third frame. You can peruse my detailed rap on the reboot of The Mummy franchise here:

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy Box Office Prediction

My projection for the newcomer likely puts it in a battle for second place with the fifth weekend of Project Hail Mary. I’m looking for both to land in the mid to higher teens and I’ll give the latter a slight edge for a third weekend in the runner-up position. Warner Bros. would love for Cronin’s horror version of The Mummy to hit $20M+, but I’m skeptical.

As for Mario, it should have no trouble scoring the trifecta atop the box office mountain with earnings between $35-40 million. Its streak in the top spot should end in weekend #4 with musical biopic Michael slated to beat it.

Holdovers romances The Drama and You, Me & Tuscany should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

3. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

4. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $6 million

5. You, Me & Tuscany

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (April 10-12)

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie didn’t hold as well as 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but its 48% decline was still commendable. The Illumination Entertainment sequel took in $68 million, falling below my generous $79.1 million prediction. In two weeks, the total has soared to $307 million.

Project Hail Mary eased only 24% in second with $24.1 million, ahead of my $20.6 million forecast. The sci-fi blockbuster stands at $256 million after four weeks.

The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson was third, with a solid 39% dip to $8.7 million. That’s on track with my $8.5 million call resulting in a two-week take of $30 million.

You, Me & Tuscany was fourth as the romantic comedy with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page stalled with $7.7 million. I had it making more at $11.2 million.

Finally, Hoppers was fifth with $4.1 million (I said $3.6 million) as the Pixar effort jumped to $157 million after six weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 10-12 Box Office Predictions

After a potent start over the Easter frame, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should easily rule the box office world yet again. You, Me & Tuscany is the only wide release newcomer likely to crack the top 5 and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

You, Me & Tuscany Box Office Prediction

Tuscany, the picturesque rom-com with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page is a little bit of a mystery. It could bottom out in the high single digits or manage teens. I’m splitting the difference for a third place showing in the low double digits.

Mario Galaxy nearly rose to the opening earnings of 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but fell a bit short for what was still a terrific premiere (more on that below). Part 1 took in over $90 million in its sophomore outing and I’ve got this not reaching those heights.

Project Hail Mary should stay strong in second place and might witness the lowest percentage drop of the holdovers.

The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson opened in line with expectations. With a B Cinemascore grade (which is so-so), it could see a decline in the 50% range. However, I suspect it may ease in the lower 40s.

Hoppers should round out the top five and here’s I see it shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $79.1 million

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

3. You, Me & Tuscany

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (April 3-5)

Family audiences were certainly over the moon for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie as it hauled in $131.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $190.8 million since its Wednesday bow. While that doesn’t match the $204 million that 2023’s original banked, it shows that this franchise is on firm footing. The respective grosses eclipsed my predictions of $126.5 million and $171.2 million.

Project Hail Mary dropped to second after two weeks in first place with $31.7 million, a tad shy of my $35.2 million forecast. The sci-fi tale boasts $218 million in its coffers after three weeks.

The Drama, as mentioned, was on par with most estimates at $14.3 million in third. I thought it might climb a little higher with a $16.7 million call. It will be interesting to see if it fades quickly or has some staying power.

Hoppers was fourth with $5.8 million as the Disney/Pixar animated flick had its most significant percentage drop thanks to Mario and Luigi. I had it at $8 million. The five-week cumulation is $149 million.

Fifth place went to Reminders of Him with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) and $45 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

You, Me & Tuscany Box Office Prediction

The Little Mermaid star Halle Bailey and Bridgerton lead Regé-Jean Page headline You, Me & Tuscany on April 10th. Universal hopes rom com fans check into the Kat Coiro (Marry Me) directed effort with a supporting cast featuring Marco Calvani, Lorenzo de Moor, Aziza Scott, Nia Vardolos, and Isabella Ferrari.

Tuscany could benefit from a lack of competition for genre fans. While The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson will be in its second frame, I certainly wouldn’t call that your traditional romantic comedy. A worst case opening might be in line with Coiro’s Marry Me with Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson. It premiered to just under $8 million during a busy Christmas season.

This should fare better and I’ll say it manages to cross double digits.

You, Me & Tuscany opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

Black Bag Box Office Prediction

Steven Soderbergh unveils his second 2025 picture in weeks when Black Bag opens on March 14th. The spy thriller is led by Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender with Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan in support.

The Focus Features flick is generating impressive critical support with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s some of the best recent reviews in the prolific director’s long career. Bag‘s buzz could mean this over performs. If this reaches $10 million, that would be quite an accomplishment. I don’t think it gets there, but it should certainly outpace the $3.3 million that Soderbergh’s January predecessor Presence earned out of the gate.

Black Bag opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million

For my Novocaine prediction, click here:

Novocaine Box Office Prediction

For my The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie prediction, click here:

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Black Bag

Arriving just weeks after his well-reviewed haunted house flick Presence, the prolific Steven Soderbergh helms the spy thriller Black Bag. Out March 14th, David Koepp handles screenplay duties (he also scripted Presence) with eight-time nominee and two-time Academy winner Cate Blanchett and two-time nominee Michael Fassbender starring. The supporting cast includes Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan.

Critics are digging what they’re finding in Bag. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 95% with Metacritic at 86. Blanchett, Fassbender, and Brosnan (in what’s said to be a small but memorable role) are getting kudos as are the screenplay and cinematography.

That said, Bag probably isn’t an awards play for Focus Features despite the impressive reviews thus far. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

A year ago, Everything Everywhere All at Once premiered at the South by Southwest, therefore skipping the normal autumn film festivals in favor of the Austin event. It now appears on the precipice of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. We aren’t looking at the same storyline with SXSW in 2023 with its debut picture Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. Could it have a role at all to play in next year’s awards mix?

It might. Based on the nearly half century old tabletop game that inspired many a filmmaker and writer, Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley (who made 2018’s Game Night) direct. The cast includes Chris Pine, Michelle Rodriguez, Regé-Jean Page, Justice Smith, Sophia Lillis, Chloe Coleman, and Hugh Grant. Early fest reviews are encouraging as the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% based on the limited reaction. The critical takes indicate this will appeal to die-hards of the source material and neophytes.

I certainly don’t think we’re looking at two years in a row of the likely BP winner coming from SXSW. However, Dungeons (out stateside on March 31) is being particularly praised for its Visual Effects and Production Design. I wouldn’t completely count this out to be a contender in either category (especially the former). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…