This year’s Grand Prix prize at the Cannes Film Festival is the political drama Minotaur. Set against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Andrey Zvyagintsev’s latest looks to join previous features Leviathan (2014) and Loveless (2017) as an International Feature Film nominee at the Oscars. The cast includes Iris Lebedeva, Dmitriy Mazurov, Varvara Shmykova, and Juris Zagars.
The reviews are impressive with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 90 on Metacritic. Essentially marking second place at the French festival, two of the last three Grand Prix victors have scored Best Picture nominations (The Zone of Interest and Sentimental Value). Minotaur is a co-production between France, Latvia, and Germany and any of them could submit it for IFF. The filmmaker’s previously nominated pics were Russian submissions and that won’t be the case this time around. With Mubi handling distribution, I would expect a spirited campaign with a solid likelihood of inclusion in the final quintet for foreign feature. Best Picture is possible, but perhaps more of a reach unless this starts to be seen as a frontrunner to win the international race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A nearly 160 minute epic spanning decades of gay history in Spain, Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi’s The Black Ball (or La bola negra in its home language) was greeted with an extended ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. Telling three stories interconnected over 85 years, the cast includes singer Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernardeau, Carlos González, Milo Quifes, Lola Dueñas, Julio Torres, Glenn Close, and Penélope Cruz.
Based on an unfinished play by Federico Garcia Lorca, all eyes are on the Cannes jury to see if Ball picks up a major prize later this weekend. The melodrama is being highly praised with many critics calling it a festival standout. Rotten Tomatoes is at 88% with 85 on Metacritic.
This is exactly the type of ambitious project that the Academy could honor in numerous categories including Best Picture and Director (the filmmakers are collectively known as Los Javis). The buzz reminds me of Emilia Pérez when it was unburdened by the controversies that would eventually follow. We probably have our Spanish submission for International Feature Film where this has immediately become a surefire contender. The reaction also indicates this could play in several down-the-line races like Casting, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.
As for the actors, Casting could be seen as a way to honor them all. Quifes seems to be generating particular attention. With Penélope Cruz, her small but memorable part might be remembered in Supporting Actress where she may also be in contention for this summer’s The Invite. Close’s role sounds too minor.
Just this morning, Netflix won the bidding war for Ball‘s release. Expect them to go all out in their campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nearly 20 years ago, Cristian Mungiu’s 4 Months, 3 Weeks and Days won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. For the 80th edition of the Academy Awards, it was a surprise when it wasn’t shortlisted in International Feature Film despite being the Romanian submission. Oscar voters have a chance to honor the filmmaker at the 99th ceremony with his latest Fjord. It received its first look at Cannes.
Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan star in the family drama and early word-of-mouth is strong if not overly effusive in some cases. Rotten Tomatoes is at 94% with 82 on Metacritic. Neon has picked up distribution rights and it looks to contend for IFF with a strong shot at making the cut.
Getting beyond that race is more of a question mark. Under a best case scenario, Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could be in play for Mungiu. Same goes for the lead performances. Reinsve was nominated last year for Sentimental Value for the first time while Stan got his inaugural nod two years back via The Apprentice. I had Reinsve listed #1 in Best Actress in my early ranked posts with Stan third and the film ranked fifth. They could all still be projected next time around, but don’t be shocked if the numbers fall. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Writer/director James Gray is no stranger to the Cannes Film Festival as his latest Paper Tiger is the sixth effort to play the French Riviera. Others include We Own the Night, The Immigrant, and predecessor Armageddon Time. 80s set crime drama Tiger stars Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Miles Teller with support from Gavin Goudey, Roman Engel, and Victor Ptak.
Most reviews are of the thumbs up variety with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 84 Metacritic. Gray has yet to have his awards breakout despite acclaim for titles including The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra in addition to some of the aforementioned.
Tiger‘s viability is a question mark. It appears to be getting enough critical acclaim, but it’ll be interesting to see how much distributor Neon pushes it. Driver and Johansson (who were both nominated in 2019 for Marriage Story) could contend in Actor and (probably) Supporting Actress as opposed to lead. Johansson’s performance is being singled out as the best and worst aspect of the cast depending on what you read. She’ll hope for enough of the former to grab her third nomination. It’s entirely possible that Paper Tiger fails to register with the Academy though Cannes reaction is giving it a shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma marks Jane Schoenbrun’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2024 effort I Saw the TV Glow. Serving as the premiere feature for the Un Certain Regard section at the Cannes Film Festival, the satirical sendup of 80s slashers is shaping up to be another critical darling. Hannah Einbinder (of Hacks fame) and Gillian Anderson star with a supporting cast including Amanda Fix, Sarah Sherman, Patrick Fischler, Dylan Baker, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Eva Victor, and Jack Haven.
Reviews are strong with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps an even more notable 91 Metacritic. The mainstream appeal for Miasma could be limited, but distributor Mubi has shown their campaigning prowess previously through The Substance. Under a best case scenario, the Academy could notice Anderson’s lauded supporting work and/or the original screenplay. I think this is more likely to resonate with the Gotham Awards or Indie Spirits where Glow shined two years back. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Set in the world of the Parisian health care system, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s latest is All of a Sudden with its generous 196 runtime (making Fatherland‘s 82 minutes seem like a YouTube ad). Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto headline the talky drama with Kyozo Nagatsuka, Kodai Kurosaki, Jean-Charles Clichet, and Marie Bunel in support.
In 2021, Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car (a whole 17 minutes shorter than Sudden) premiered at Cannes to rapturous acclaim. It would end up with four major Oscar noms: Picture, Director, Adapted, and International Feature Film (which it won). 2023’s follow-up Evil Does Not Exist received positive reaction but did not register with the Academy.
Sudden has gone the Cannes route and critics are once again effusive in their praise. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. This could pick up the same four nominations that greeted Car and I’m assuming Japan will pick it as their hopeful in IFF. Reviews indicate this is mostly a two-hander between Efira and Okamoto. Neon, who hold North American distribution rights, will have a decision to make. Efira will likely be in the mix for lead actress. Will Okamoto be campaigned in supporting or alongside her costar? You have to go back to 1991 (Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon in Thelma & Louise) to find the last time two women competed in that category from the same film. That leads to me to think the latter will go supporting and both could get in if Sudden is a BP contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Iranian filmmaker Asghar Farhadi is no stranger to awards success. 2011’s A Separation and 2016’s The Salesman both won the International Feature Film prize at the Oscars. 2021’s A Hero was shortlisted in the same competition and took the Grand Prix prize at Cannes. So it’s understandable that his follow-up Parallel Tales, screening at the French festival this week, would be looked at as something the Academy might be friendly to. The drama features Isabelle Huppert, Virginie Efira (costarring in the buzzy All of a Sudden at Cannes), Vincent Cassel, Pierre Niney, Adam Bessa, Catherine Deneuve, and India Hair.
So while its resume looks strong for their consideration, the screenings tell a different story. The vast majority of critics are calling this a major misfire. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 18%. No amount of salesmanship would put this in the mix for the top foreign category in a few months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland is one of the most anticipated titles playing Cannes and its French screening today indicates it lives up the hype. Set post-WWII, the black & white historical drama casts Sandra Hüller as novelist Erika Mann on a road trip with renowned father Thomas (Hanns Zischler). Costars include August Diehl, David Striesow, and Anna Madeley.
This is the Polish filmmaker’s first feature since 2018’s Cold War which picked up Academy nods for Best Director, International Feature Film, and Łukasz Żal’s cinematography. Prior to that, 2014’s Ida was the International Feature Film winner and also made cut in cinematography for Żal.
Reviews for the Mubi distributed title (which runs a brisk 82 minutes) stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 92 on Metacritic. Those numbers solidify its awards viability. Assuming Poland submits it as their horse in IFF (and it’s safe to assume that), this should mark the auteur’s third shot in that race in a row. Żal’s camerawork is also being singled out and he could make the quintet there.
While Ida and Cold War didn’t get into the BP ten, Fatherland certainly is a possibility and Pawlikowski is once again a contender for his direction and his original screenplay with Hendrik Handloegten. As far as the leads, Hüller is generating raves. Her potential inclusion in Best Actress is high though not a given. Due to a fresh Academy rules change, she might even compete against herself when factoring her heralded turn in Rose (where she took top prize at the Berlin fest). The vote splitting between both roles will be something to keep in mind. Zischler is more of a question mark. His costar could overshadow the campaign. On paper, Best Actor looks awfully crowded. Could Mubi go supporting instead? However, momentum for the pic could sweep him in under a best case scenario. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.
This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
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