October 24-26 Box Office Predictions

A trio of new releases are vying for the #1 spot this weekend as musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, romantic drama Regretting You and anime fantasy Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc are unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Box Office Prediction

Regretting You Box Office Prediction

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc Box Office Prediction

Potential over or under performances by the newbies make this an uncertain weekend. As mentioned, any of them could place 1st or Black Phone 2 could repeat atop the charts. I’m giving the slight edge to Springsteen with Jeremy Allen White as The Boss though my mid teens estimate means it would fall short of the eventual grosses of recent genre fare like Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and A Complete Unknown.

Regretting You has a shot of exceeding expectations since it’s based on source material from Colleen Hoover. The adaptation of her novel It Ends with Us was a smash last year. Yet my low teens take puts it in second as this doesn’t seem to have the buzz of the aforementioned.

As for Chainsaw, anime features (especially the most recent Demon Slayer) have been hot commodities, but this isn’t expected to reach anywhere that pic’s $70 million start. I’m going low double digits though it could surprise.

After a stellar start, Black Phone 2 should lose around its opening weekend audience with Tron: Ares shedding more than that and rounding out the top five.

Here’s how it see it shaking out:

1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

2. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $14 million

3. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

5. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (October 17-19)

Black Phone 2 rang up decent business and outdid its 2022 predecessor with $27.3 million. That managed to top my $25.5 million prediction.

Tron: Ares fell 67% for $11.1 million in second, rising slightly ahead of my $10.2 million call. The flop of a threequel stands at $54 million after two weeks and this won’t be reaching nine digits domestically.

Aziz Ansari’s comedy Good Fortune couldn’t find it despite the star power of Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. It was third with $6.1 million, a shade below my $7.3 million estimate.

One Battle After Another was fourth with $3.8 million compared to my $4.9 million projection. The four-week total is $61 million.

Roofman took fifth with $3.7 million (I said $4.6 million) and it’s shackled with only $15 million in two weekends of play.

Finally, critically drubbed After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts was ninth in wide release with a paltry $1.5 million. I was more generous at $3.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Amateur Box Office Prediction

Based on a 1981 novel by Robert Littell that was turned into a movie starring John Savage and Christopher Plummer, 20th Century Studios releases The Amateur on April 11th. The spy thriller is directed by James Hawes with Bohemian Rhapsody Oscar winner Rami Malek headlining. Costars include Rachel Brosnahan (about to appear in the eagerly anticipated Superman), Caitriona Balfe, Jon Bernthal, Michael Stuhlbarg, Holt McCallany, Julianne Nicholson, Adrian Martinez, and Laurence Fishburne.

Once fashioned as a starring vehicle for Hugh Jackman, The Amateur has less power to capitalize on and seemingly scant buzz. This may struggle to reach $10 million, but I’ll project that it just gets there.

The Amateur opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million

For my Drop prediction, click here:

Drop Box Office Prediction

For my The King of Kings prediction, click here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

For my Warfare prediction, click here:

Warfare Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – A Quiet Place: Day One

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is out this weekend with a fresh creative team behind and in front of the camera. Michael Sarnoski, best known for Pig with Nicolas Cage, directs with Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, and Alex Wolff entering the franchise. Djimon Hounsou reprises his turn from A Quiet Place Part II.

The review embargo is up and it is slightly behind its two predecessors. 2018’s original posted 96% on RT with 2021’s follow-up at 91%. Day One currently stands at 86%. There is particular praise for Nyong’o who probably came close to a Best Actress nom in this genre with 2019’s Us.

At the 91st Academy Awards, A Quiet Place was up for Sound Editing (this was right before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into Best Sound). It ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody and was its sole nod. Side note: Emily Blunt took home a surprise Supporting Actress SAG prize for the pic while missing the Oscar cut.

Part II did not get a Sound mention three years later as Dune was the victor. Day‘s only shot on Oscar night is Sound and it’s a coin flip whether it gets in. You’re safe to assume it won’t take the statue even if it makes the quintet thanks to Dune: Part Two. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Bradley Cooper in Maestro

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Actor quintet and it starts with Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Silver Linings Playbook (2012, Actor); American Hustle (2013, Supporting Actor); American Sniper (2014, Actor); A Star Is Born (2018, Actor)

The Case for Bradley Cooper:

For his portrayal of the legendary EGOT recipient Leonard Bernstein in the Netflix production, Mr. Cooper has been nominated for BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globes. There could also be the feeling that he’s overdue as this marks his fifth acting nod with no hardware to show for it (just like Annette Bening in Nyad per my previous post).

The Case Against Bradley Cooper:

He didn’t win the Globe or Critics Choice as Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have split the prizes so far. While Maestro had a decent nomination morning, Cooper was not recognized for his direction. That’s what happened in 2018 when he got the Actor mention for Star (he would lose to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody), but not his behind the camera work. Of all the BP contenders, this has the lowest RT rating and there’s a feeling among some that Cooper is trying too hard in Maestro for the gold.

The Verdict:

Cooper is third behind Murphy and Giamatti. I don’t think his victory is an impossibility. Yet it looks to be a long shot unless he scores an upset at SAG or BAFTA. In other words, the O in EGOT should still be unfulfilled.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer…

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody Review

For a movie about The Voice, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody strains to find its own. While undeniably long on title (in case you forgot who sang one of her signature bops), it’s sadly short on actual substance.

We first meet Ms. Houston (Naomi Ackie) in the church choir alongside mother Cissy (Tamara Tunie). She comes from notable musical lineage in that Cissy was a successful backup singer (who never quite broke out on her own) and Dionne Warwick is a first cousin. The pipes of Whitney are clearly a precious commodity as Cissy and business conscious and stern father John (Clarke Peters) prod her into the biz. Famed record exec Clive Davis (Stanley Tucci) takes Whitney under his wing and she rises to unheard of stardom for a female solo artist beginning in the mid 80s.

There are potential controversies immediately. Whitney’s romance with Robyn Crawford (Nafessa Williams) is jettisoned since it won’t match the girl next door image. While Robyn becomes her trusted assistant, Whitney’s (or Nippy as the family and close friends call her) entanglements are a frequent source of consternation. This briefly applies to Jermaine Jackson, but especially when her and R&B bad boy Bobby Brown (Ashton Sanders) get serious.

Jumping from career and personal highlights to lowlights, the screenplay from Andrew McCarten can feel as erratic as the title subject’s increasingly worrisome behavior. The writer penned Bohemian Rhapsody and it closely follows that hit pic’s playbook. It shows us the troubled aspects of the singer followed in quick succession by an iconic moment in their discography.

There are obviously lots of them in Houston’s orbit. From seven #1 hits in a row to her soaring rendition of the National Anthem at the Super Bowl to the cinematic and soundtrack phenomenon that was The Bodyguard, what’s disappointing is how glossed over and rushed they feel. For a feature with a two and half hour runtime (and you feel it), McCarten’s script never focuses on anything with more than a surface level “Behind the Music” energy.

Some of the same criticisms were deservedly pointed at Bohemian Rhapsody. I’d rank Rhapsody higher because its musical interludes like Wembley packed more of a stylistically directed punch. The behind the camera work from Kasi Lemmons never reaches that level.

As for the performances, Ackie doesn’t much resemble Whitney. Yet by the conclusion, she manages to embody her spirit in the performance pieces passably. Tucci is given a couple scenes to flesh out Davis’s character into a sympathetic figure (it probably doesn’t hurt that the actual Davis is a coproducer). Same goes for Tunie’s Cissy. Other roles are of the one-note variety like John’s scheming manager who forgets to be a father and Bobby’s constant companion who fails to be a good husband. Just as the family tries to ignore Robyn’s presence, the screenplay eventually does too.

The music itself occasionally saves the mediocrity of where this broken biopic goes. Sadly that’s not enough to save it. In other words, it’s often doesn’t feel right and it’s just OK.

** (out of four)

Oscars: The Case of Austin Butler in Elvis

Austin Butler is the first performer up for the Best Actor quintet in My Case Of posts for the 95th Academy Awards. Will his performance as Elvis nab the 31-year-old a statue? Let’s break it down.

The Case for Austin Butler:

In a star making role as the iconic musician, Butler looks to follow a Best Actor winning path we’ve seen before. It includes Jamie Foxx in Ray and Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody. He’s picked up some hardware already at the Golden Globes where he took Best Actor in a Drama over Brendan Fraser in The Whale.

The Case Against Austin Butler:

This is a close three-man contest and voters may feel that the time is right for veterans Fraser or Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin). The former took the Critics Choice prize while the latter received the Globe in Actor (Musical or Comedy).

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

Butler is as viable as his more seasoned nominees. He’s got a real shot, but SAG (which has matched Oscar 8 for 10 in the past decade) and BAFTA (9 for 10 match) could make him rise or fall.

My Case Of posts will continue with our first Supporting Actress nominee – Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever!

The Case Of posts covering the other Actor hopefuls can be found here:

Oscars: The Case of Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Oscars: The Case of Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Oscars: The Case of Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Oscars: The Case of Bill Nighy in Living

Oscar Predictions – Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

On the eve of its premiere, the embargo for Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody finally lifted. For those not familiar, waiting until December 21st for critics to weigh in is not a good sign for awards possibilities. The biopic comes from Kasi Lemmons, who last directed Cynthia Erivo to a Best Actress nod for 2019’s Harriet. Then there’s the screenwriter Anthony McCarten. He’s a bit of an awards whisperer. His screenplays for 2014’s The Theory of Everything, 2017’s Darkest Hour, and 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody resulted in Best Actor victories for (respectively) Eddie Redmayne, Gary Oldman, and Rami Malek.

That’s why I was a tad surprised that Somebody was MIA at film festivals and that there were no early reviews to generate buzz. Now it makes more sense. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mere 41%. That said, some write-ups are singing the praises of Naomi Ackie as the iconic and troubled legend. I don’t think it would’ve been impossible for Ackie to make the five in Best Actress. At this juncture, only Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) have guaranteed spots in my opinion. Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans and Danielle Deadwyler for Till are probably in as well. The fifth slot could be Margot Robbie (Babylon), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), or a surprise.

It is probably too late for Ackie to be a factor. The Critics Choice and Globes skipped her and the Academy is unlikely to make her queen of the night. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my prediction from $14.5 million to $11.5 million

Sony Pictures is hoping audiences wanna run to Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody when its drops December 23rd. The biopic of the legendary late singer stars Naomi Ackie as the title character with Stanley Tucci, Ashton Sanders, Tamara Tunie, Nafessa Williams, and Clarke Peters among the supporting cast. Kasi Lemmons (who last made the 2019 biopic Harriet) directs. Anthony McCarten wrote the screenplay. He’s no stranger to the genre having scripted The Theory of Everything, Darkest Hour and Bohemian Rhapsody.

Just last week, the film’s name was expanded to add “Whitney Houston” in front of one of her signature tunes. Perhaps Sony was nervous that awareness wasn’t high enough for the project. The marketing campaign doesn’t seem quite as robust as it could be. Its review embargo has yet to lift and Somebody skipped the autumn festival circuit. McCarten’s aforementioned works resulted in Oscar wins for stars Eddie Redmayne (Theory), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), and Rami Malek (Rhapsody). Ackie has yet to show up anywhere in the Academy’s precursors.

Even with the somewhat muted buzz, I still believe African-American and especially female viewers should turn out. This might result in a low teens beginning for the three-day gross.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million (REVISED)

For my Puss in Boots: The Last Wish prediction, click here:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Box Office Prediction

For my Babylon prediction, click here:

Babylon Box Office Prediction

AFI Recap: Yes on Nope and Nope on Babylon

The American Film Institute (AFI) said yes to Nope and nope to The Whale and Babylon today as they named their top ten movies of 2022. Jordan Peele’s sci-fi horror tale was perhaps the biggest surprise of the bunch.

The AFI list, in the previous decade, typically gives us seven of the eventual Best Picture contenders at the Oscars. In other words, they’re worth paying attention to. Coupled with Wednesday’s National Board of Review selections, there’s much to discuss. First, here’s the full AFI Ten:

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Nope

She Said

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

It’s key to remember that only U.S. made pictures are eligible. That means titles like All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, RRR, and The Banshees of Inisherin were not in the mix. However, Banshees received a Special Award similar to what eventual Academy hopefuls like Roma and Parasite nabbed.

I went 7 for 10 on my predictions. I correctly named Avatar, Elvis, Everything Everywhere…, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. I didn’t name Nope, She Said, and Tár. Instead I picked Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. For She Said and Tár especially, these were important nods considering they missed NBR (as did Nope).

Let’s start with the films that made the AFI and NBR lists. I’m counting Banshees with its AFI Special Award shout-out and there’s six more: Avatar: The Way of Water, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. This is a list you want to be on when it comes to an Oscar BP nom.

In the previous five years, ten pictures that made AFI and NBR were ignored by the Academy. They are 2017’s The Florida Project, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade (all from 2018), Knives Out and Richard Jewell from 2019, Da 5 Bloods and Soul in 2020, and last year’s The Tragedy of Macbeth.

If history is our guide, at least one of the seven from 2022 will miss out. Looking at the list, The Woman King is probably most vulnerable. That said, I’ve yet it to include it in my Oscar ten and the stock is rising.

In the past five years, only five pics have missed AFI and NBR (including Special Awards) and received a BP nod from the Academy. They are Darkest Hour from 2017, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice in 2018, The Father in 2020, and last year’s Drive My Car.

What about the movies that didn’t make AFI or NBR in 2022? That list includes Babylon, The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, All Quiet o the Western Front, and Decision to Leave. The last two weren’t eligible for AFI. Nevertheless this isn’t a list you want to be on though the outlook isn’t completely dire.

If history guides us again, 2 of the aforementioned 2022 titles could still get love from Oscar. Perhaps Monday’s Golden Globes nods will save some of them. There’s no doubt that Babylon and The Whale are looking shakier for Academy inclusion after this week. They need some attention from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

I’ll have my Golden Globe nominations recap up Monday and if you missed my predictions on them, you can find them here:

2022 Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

Updated Oscar predictions will be on the blog Tuesday!

Best Picture 2018: The Final Five

We have reached 2018 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-17, they are linked at the bottom of the post.

2018 is a tricky year to winnow down. In fact, all 8 nominees have strong cases to make the final five. Only one thing is for sure. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book is one of the five considering it won Best Picture. It stands as one of the more surprising (and derided) victors in recent years. The race relations drama went an impressive 3/5 on its nominations – taking Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay and missing Actor (Viggo Mortensen) and Film Editing.

So what of the other seven hopefuls? Here’s my speculation:

Black Panther

The only MCU flick (and for that matter comic book adaptation) to score a BP nom was Ryan Coogler’s phenomenon with Chadwick Boseman as the title character. Its seven nominations included three wins for Score, Production Design, and Costume Design.