Tag: Peter Sarsgaard

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.

There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.

So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.

That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.

There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.

With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.

Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.

Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.

Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.

Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!

Oscar Predictions: September 5

Tim Fehlbaum’s September 5 covers similar ground as Steven Spielberg’s 2005 Best Picture nominee Munich regarding the 1972 Olympics hostage crisis. This version, which premiered at Venice and made its way over to Telluride, tells it from the perspective of the ABC broadcasting crew covering the games. John Magaro, Peter Sarsgaard, Ben Chaplin, and Leonie Benesch star.

Reviews from Italy and Colorado are impressive as the pic has emerged as a festival sleeper in recent days. Part of its flying under the radar status is the current lack of a stateside distributor. That should change soon. The question is whether September 5 gets dated for a 2024 release or if the buyer waits for 2025 consideration. Either way, I wouldn’t sleep on its chances for Picture, Original Screenplay, and Editing if it is granted a serious campaign. In 2003, Sarsgaard likely barely missed the Supporting Actor cut for Shattered Glass. Of the main cast, he might receive the heftiest push as legendary sports executive Roone Arledge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Memory

No, I’m not rethinking my 2022 decision to forego an Oscar Predictions post on the Liam Neeson action flick Memory. This is the write-up for the same monikered Michel Franco drama that premiered at the Venice Film Festival. The somber drama is led by Jessica Chastain (2021’s Actress winner for The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Peter Sarsgard with a supporting cast including Merritt Wever, Jessica Harper, Elsie Fisher, and Josh Charles.

The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 88% with critics particularly complimenting the performances of the two leads. The Italian fest jury took notice as Sarsgard received the Best Actor award.

Assuming this makes the domestic release calendar by year’s end (release date is still TBD), its distributor MUBI has their work cut for them to break Chastain and Sarsgard into the lead conversations. Some critics prize attention could help and I’m taking a wait and see attitude with Memory‘s prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Venice Enriches Poor Things

The 80th Venice Film Festival has signed off and the Grand Jury’s verdict has honored what’s expected to be a major awards player. From 2017-2020, the four films that took the Golden Lion (the fest’s top prize) went onto receive Best Picture nominations at the Oscars: The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, and Nomadland (another victor). 2021 French pic Happening and 2022’s documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed bucked the trend.

Yet I would suspect the correlation between Lion and BP nominee returns in 2023 as Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is the Lion recipient. Based on reaction from Italy, Things established itself as a major contender across many categories and this assists in cementing that. Expect to read lots about this movie in my prediction posts in the weeks and months ahead.

Venice likes to spread the wealth around. Poor Things didn’t take the directing or screenplay categories or name Emma Stone as Best Actress. Instead that statue went to Cailee Spaeny as Elvis’s young bride Priscilla in Sofia Coppola’s biopic. This does nothing but help Spaeney’s chances in what appears to be an already crowded Actress derby.

Peter Sarsgard is your Best Actor for Michael Franco’s Memory (he and Jessica Chastain are drawing raves for their work). Its distributor would need to mount a shrewd campaign for Academy voters to take notice.

The fest’s runner-up trophy (the Grand Jury Prize) went to Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist. Japan recently opted to select Perfect Days from Wim Wenders as their International Feature Film hopeful. Best Screenplay went to El Conde from Pablo Larrain, which will likely be Chile’s best best for IFF inclusion.

Poor Things was the odds on favorite for the Lion as Venice rolled along. Look for it to roar as the season continues.

Oscar Predictions: The Batman

You have to go back to 2008’s The Dark Knight to find the last Batfilm to receive an Oscar nomination. It landed the most of them. While famously missing Best Picture (it’s often called the flick that caused the Academy to expand beyond five nominees), it garnered eight nods and won Supporting Actor (Heath Ledger) and Sound Editing. The other nominations were for Sound Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. 1989’s Batman was 1 for 1 in its nominations with Art Direction while follow-up Batman Returns was up for Makeup and Visual Effects and Batman Forever received a mention for Sound Effects Editing. Batman Begins from 2005 made the Cinematography final five. Batman and Robin, The Dark Knight Rises, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and Justice League all failed to show up at the big show.

That history lesson is, of course, given to you because reboot The Batman  with Robert Pattinson opens Friday and the review embargo lifted today. Early critical reaction has resulted in an 87% Rotten Tomatoes score thus far. Some write-ups are calling it masterful. Others are more mixed in the praise with some complaints of over length in particular.

So what are its Oscar prospects? As I see it, pretty strong in many of the races mentioned above. That includes Sound (now just one competition), Visual Effects, Production Design (what was Art Direction), Makeup and Hairstyling, Cinematography, and even Original Score (from Michael Giacchino). Director Matt Reeves, taking over the franchise, has experience in the VE derby with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and War for the Planet of the Apes. 

Those down the line nods could be plentiful for The Batman. However, I don’t see it getting Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, or nominations for its actors. It won’t be for lack of social media chatter. We have seen numerous comic book adaptations receive fervent support online (from The Dark Knight to Deadpool to Avengers: Endgame to Spider-Man: No Way Home). Only Black Panther and Joker have made the BP cut. I don’t envision The Batman being the third, but tech nods should happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Batman Box Office Prediction

Another chapter for the Caped Crusader flies into theaters March 4th with The Batman. The franchise reboot comes with high expectations and pent up anticipation as Robert Pattinson takes over the title role. Matt Reeves, best known for Cloverfield and the last two Planet of the Apes pics, directs. The supporting cast includes Zoe Kravitz as Catwoman, Paul Dano as the Riddler, Jeffrey Wright as Commissioner Gordon, Andy Serkis as Alfred, and an unrecognizable Colin Farrell as the Penguin. Originally slated for summer 2021, it looks to rule the month of March after its COVID delay.

There is little competition in its way and its event picture status should propel it to huge numbers. How big? The Batman could be in line for a larger opening weekend than 2008’s The Dark Knight ($158 million) and 2012 follow-up The Dark Knight Rises ($160 million). And you may have forgotten that 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice actually holds the highest Bat premiere at $166 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home showed that moviegoers were more than ready to turn out in force with the right product. Early IMAX offerings have already sold out for opening day. Estimates are wide. It could be as low as $100 million or approach $200 million. I’m thinking $145-$165 million is the likeliest range.

The Batman opening weekend prediction: $155.2 million

Oscar Predictions: The Survivor

For about a decade starting in the early 80s, the films of Barry Levinson were a magnet for awards nominations. 1988’s Rain Man won Best Picture and Levinson took directing honors. 1991’s Bugsy scored numerous nods including the aforementioned big races. The Natural and Good Morning, Vietnam earned acting mentions. Levinson received screenplay nominations for Diner and Avalon.

Over the past decade or so, the filmmaker’s most acclaimed titles have come on the small screen with several HBO movies. His previous big screen offering was the panned 2015 Bill Murray vehicle Rock the Kasbah. 

Those fortunes could change with The Survivor, which has screened in Toronto. The black and white Holocaust drama tells the true life story of Harry Haft (Ben Foster). During his captivity at Auschwitz, he was forced to box fellow prisoners in order to survive. Costars include Billy Magnussen, Danny DeVito, Vicky Krieps, Peter Sarsgaard, and John Leguizamo.

Reviews from our neighbor up north have resulted in an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score. Not all the generally positive reaction are raves, but there’s one consistency. Foster is being heralded for his role. Despite praised performances in Hell or High Water and Leave No Trace, Foster has yet to capture the attention of Oscar voters. The actor reportedly lost a tremendous amount of weight for the part. That has been a recipe for making the ballot for plenty of winners and contenders including Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) and Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) to name just two. The Best Actor race probably has two slots filled already with Will Smith (King Richard) and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog). Hopefuls are waiting in the wings like Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley), and Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up). There’s other performances from the fest circuit such as Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), and Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey) in the mix.

First things first. The Survivor needs to find a distributor and a 2021 release date to qualify. It will likely do so. The next question is how hard its eventual studio/streamer pushes for Foster. The Survivor is also a possibility in Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and maybe even Picture and Director if its gets the right push.

Bottom line: I’ve yet to even mention The Survivor in my weekly Oscar predictions. I doubt I’ll be projecting it yet for inclusion in the aforementioned categories, but I do suspect it will bubble up for the first time in other possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Guilty

Despite numerous critically acclaimed performances, Jake Gyllenhaal has but one Oscar nomination to his credit in Supporting Actor for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain. On October 1, his crime thriller The Guilty streams on Netflix. Based on a heralded 2018 Danish pic, it has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend.

Early reviews are decent at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes. Interestingly enough, some claim viewers may like it more if they haven’t seen the superior original. The Guilty is helmed by Antoine Fuqua, who directed Denzel Washington to a Best Actor win and Ethan Hawke to a Supporting Actor nod in 2001’s Training Day. Hawke costars here along with Riley Keough, Christina Vidal, Eli Goree, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Paul Dano, and Peter Sarsgaard.

In 2014, Gyllenhaal was snubbed (in the opinion of many, including this blogger) for Nightcrawler. More recently, the Academy bypassed his leading roles in Nocturnal Animals and Stronger. The Toronto verdict indicates that nomination #2 probably isn’t coming with The Guilty. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Lost Daughter

Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut The Lost Daughter has screened at Venice prior to its theatrical and Netflix release in December. Olivia Colman stars as a college professor who confronts her familial past. The supporting cast includes Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Peter Sarsgaard, and Ed Harris.

In addition to being behind the camera, Gyllenhaal (a 2009 Supporting Actress nominee for Crazy Heart) also adapted the screenplay based on an Elena Ferrante novel. Reviews indicate this is an impressive start to her directing career and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Will the Academy take notice? It certainly may with Colman, who’s unsurprisingly drawing raves. Best Actress should be a crowded field so this is no guarantee. If Colman does manage one of the five spots, it would be her third nod in four years. She won the lead race in 2018 for The Favourite and was nominated in Supporting Actress for The Father last year. Johnson and Buckley are slightly longer shots for supporting and Netflix could concentrate primarily on Colman.

I’m not sure Picture or Director are feasible, but you never know if the streamer goes all in on a campaign. Bottom line: Colman may have the best odds, but The Lost Daughter could find its way into other competitions with the right push. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Jackie Movie Review

Pablo Larrain’s Jackie presents a subject in a horrific stage of grief on a stage very few can identify with. Dealing with loss is a universal feeling. The universe watching you grieve is rare and was even more so in November 1963 when the 35th President of the United States was assassinated. A country turned to Jackie Kennedy and her decisions in the days following the tragedy are explored here.

Yet the most effective moments in the picture belong to Jackie’s quieter moments as she deals with her husband’s death. They are made even more powerful by Natalie Portman’s portrayal of her. In what is easily her finest performance since her Oscar-winning turn in Black Swan, Jackie is propelled by her even when narrative shortcomings present themselves.

The film is primarily set in the immediate days after President Kennedy’s fateful ride in Dallas. Mrs. Kennedy is tasked with planning a funeral when national security concerns are at a fever pitch. She’s also already grappling with how to preserve his legacy and we  witness that through her interview with a journalist (Billy Crudup). It is here we see Jackie’s recollection of the proper way to memorialize a slain leader. How extravagant should the funeral be from a First Lady accused of being a bit extravagant? We see brief glimpses of tension with President Johnson (John Carroll Lynch) and especially his aide Jack Valenti (Max Casella).

Some of Jackie’s decisions literally have potential world implications. Far more personal ones are there like informing two young children. We also witness her bond with Bobby Kennedy (Peter Sarsgaard) and childhood friend Nancy Tuckerman (Greta Gerwig). Her psyche is explored in another flashback narrative as she talks about it with a priest, played by the late John Hurt.

The dual flashback setup often feels a tad familiar and sometimes stale. Those with a passing knowledge of the JFK assassination aftermath won’t learn much here. What is rewarding is Portman’s mesmerizing work. There’s also a haunting musical score by Mica Levi. John F. Kennedy has been called the first TV President. One thing does come through here with his First Lady’s recounting of events is her understanding of that. In her darkest moments, she also realizes that she must do all she can to control the story before others do. This does provide some fascinating moments of conversation with Crudup’s reporter. Even in her fragile and stricken state, Jackie feels the duty to write this chapter of history her way.

*** (out of four)