Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 15th Edition

Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.

The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart. 

Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.

Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 2)

5. Fences (PR: 5)

6. Lion (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 9)

12. Jackie (PR: 11)

13. Sully (PR: 13)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Live by Night (PR: 17)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

The Founder

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Silence

Liam Neeson, Silence

Stephen Henderson, Fences

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 3)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 8)

8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay

Patriots Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Fences (PR: 1)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 2)

5. Arrival  (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

10. Sully (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Indignation

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)

3. Moana (PR: 2)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)

9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Miss Hokusai

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. 13th (PR: 1)

2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)

4. Gleason (PR: 3)

5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)

7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)

9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Miss Sharon Jones

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. Elle (PR: 4)

3. The Salesman (PR: 6)

4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

6. Neruda (PR: 10)

7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)

8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)

10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

A Man Called Ove

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Jackie (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Lion (PR: 7)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

10. Live by Night (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Allied (PR: 6)

4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 4)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

8. Silence (PR: 5)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

10. Fences (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Lion (PR: 4)

8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fences (PR: 10)

10. Jackie (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Hell or High Water

Live by Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)

3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)

5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)

9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)

Dropped Out:

The BFG

Hidden Figures

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Jackie (PR: 4)

4. Moana (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

7.  Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Arrival

Hidden Figures

Hacksaw Ridge

Manchester by the Sea

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)

5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)

7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)

9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Runnin” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Live by Night (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Allied (PR: 10)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)

4. Sully (PR: 9)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)

7. Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)

9. Passengers (PR: 10)

10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Silence

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)

5. Arrival (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 4)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. Arrival (PR: 6)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 7)

7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Captain America: Civil War

That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

7 Nominations

Moonlight

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Lion

4 Nominations

Fences

3 Nominations

Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals 

1 Nomination

Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…

Fences Box Office Prediction

Based on the acclaimed August Wilson play with the same two stars appearing in the film version, Fences hits theaters on Christmas Day. Denzel Washington directs and headlines the 1950s set family drama along with Viola Davis. Other costars include Mykelti Williamson, Stephen Henderson and Jovan Adepo.

Fences has been considered an awards contender ever since the project was announced. Reviews have mostly been strong and it stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes, yet it did receive less Golden Globe nods this week than was expected. Still, Washington and Davis are considered shoo-ins for Oscar nominations.

How does this translate to box office dollars? The reported $30 million production, as mentioned, will go wide on the actual holiday date, meaning Sunday. My prediction, therefore, is only for two days. I’ll project that Fences manages to nearly reach double digits in that 48 hour window as it hopes to play well throughout awards season.

Fences opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million (Sunday-Monday)

For my Passengers prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/passengers-box-office-prediction/

For my Sing prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/sing-box-office-prediction/

For my Assassin’s Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/assassins-creed-box-office-prediction/

For my Why Him? prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/why-him-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 1st Edition

Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!

It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.

Let us count them…

1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.

2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.

3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.

There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:

Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.

Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.

Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences. 

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.

Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.

Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.

4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.

Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

5. Fences (PR: 2)

6. Lion (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 8)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

9. Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

11. Jackie (PR: 9)

12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)

13. Sully (PR: 15)

14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

17. Live by Night (PR: 14)

18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

20. The Founder (PR: 19)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Pablo Larrain, Jackie

Best Actor

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)

5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)

9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)

8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

2. Moonlight (PR: 1)

3. La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. The Lobster (PR: 8)

8. Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 3)

3. Lion (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

8. Sully (PR: 10)

9. Elle (PR: 9)

10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Whew! And there you have it…

Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 24th Edition

Happy Turkey Day all! And yes we all know it’s Thursday and that also means my weekly Oscar predictions are here for you to stuff yourself with. Over the last week, we have seen new developments as Allied opened, reviews came out, and its awards chances went buh bye.

Furthermore, both Patriots Day and The Founder (both out next month) had critical reaction come in. Patriots has established itself as a dark horse candidate for recognition with Founder popping up in the bottom of possibilities based on their reviews.

Added to that… Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally got a trailer release about a month before its premiere.

So there’s a bit of movement happening on the charts and here’s my Thanksgiving projections for the eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 5)

5. Lion (PR: 4)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Loving (PR: 9)

8. Arrival (PR: 7)

9. Jackie (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

13. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Live by Night (PR: 13)

15. Sully (PR: 14)

16. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 15)

17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 16)

19. The Founder (Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

Allied

Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 7)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

5. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

3. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

4. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 6)

5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

7. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

10. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 6)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. La La Land (PR: 2)

4. Hell or High Water (PR: 5)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Loving (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 4)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

10. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 4)

4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Arrival (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Live by Night (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 10)

9. Elle (PR: 7)

10. Sully (PR: 9)

And that does it for your Thanksgiving edition of my Oscar predictions… Enjoy those leftovers!

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 17th Edition

Hey all! Back at it again with my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories for your perusal. Over the last seven days, a couple of developments have occurred. Both Rules Don’t Apply and Miss Sloane screened for critics at the AFI Film Festival. Both were looked at as potential awards contenders, yet their prospects both diminished upon their unveiling. The two films are both hovering around mid-60s on Rotten Tomatoes and the likelihood of either competing for the big prize is remote. That does not, however, hold true for their leading performances. Both Warren Beatty in Rules and Jessica Chastain in Sloane are slotted in the #6 position in Actor and Actress, making both of them real possibilities in those races.

On another note, Arrival opened at the box office higher than expected. Audiences were more polarized than critics (many of them loved it) on it, yet its chances at a Best Pic nod seems quite possible at press time.

Allied opens next weekend and reviews should be coming in soon, so its prospects will become much clearer when I write my column on Thanksgiving.

A final comment: next week will be the last weekly post for November and come December, I’ll be predicting the possibilities in all categories at the big dance.

And with that – my weekly Oscar forecast:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 3)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 9)

8. Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

13. Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Sully (PR: 16)

15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)

16. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)

17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 18)

18. Allied (PR: 20)

19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

7. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 7)

9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 2)

4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)

7. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 4)

8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

10. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aaron Eckhart, Sully

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 7)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 5)

5. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

7. Loving (PR: 4)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Elle (PR: 9)

8. Live by Night (PR: 7)

9. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Love & Friendship

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 10th Edition

Hey all – it’s Thursday and that means time to update Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since last Thursday, Denzel Washington’s eagerly awaited Fences held its first industry screenings and solidified itself as a major player this awards season. Beyond that, we’re still in a holding pattern with various titles yet to unveil themselves. That will change soon with such titles as Rules Don’t Apply, Miss Sloane, and Allied… so stay tuned as those pictures reveal themselves to be true contenders or not.

And with that, the November 10th rankings!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Moonlight (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 5)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Loving (PR: 8)

8. Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Arrival (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)

14. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 15)

15. Live by Night (PR: 14)

16. Sully (PR: 16)

17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)

18. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 18)

20. Allied (PR: 19)

Dropped Out:

Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

7. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)

8. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 9)

9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

10. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

3. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 4)

4. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)

8. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margo Martindale, The Hollars

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Loving (PR: 4)

5. Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Miss Sloane

I, Daniel Blake

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Live by Night (PR: 8)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

9. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Certain Women

And that will do it for today! Until next week…

Oscar Watch: Fences

Another key piece in the 2016 Oscar puzzle came into sharper focus this weekend as Fences had its first industry screening. Based on the acclaimed August Wilson play (he also penned the script) for which Denzel Washington and Viola Davis won Tony Awards, Mr. Washington directs and stars in the adaptation.

It’s not out until Christmas and reviews are embargoed for another few weeks,  but initial reaction out yesterday indicates this will be a major player in the awards derby. This holds true especially for Denzel in the lead Actor race and Davis in Supporting Actress. For months, it was thought that Davis would compete in the lead Actress field. However, a couple weeks back, that designation was shifted. The reasoning could have to do with the significant competiveness of Actress where Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land) are assured nominees who should battle it out for the gold. Supporting Actress appears less packed and Davis looks to be the current front runner. Same goes for Denzel in the Actor race, which would give him his third golden statue.

The early buzz also bodes well for Fences getting Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay nods. Yet not everything is totally clear cut. There are three performances that could compete in Supporting Actor: Jovan Adepo, Stephen Henderson, and Mykelti Williamson (yes, Bubba from Forrest Gump). In my weekly Oscar predictions posts, I’ve given Henderson the edge. Last night may have changed my thinking as both Williamson and Adepo have garnered seemingly greater chatter. There’s the possibility of two of these gentlemen getting in or just one or perhaps the trio canceling each other out (less likely).

One thing is for sure: Fences has been on the radar of Academy Awards predictors for quite some time and this weekend only increased the visibility.