May 6-8 Box Office Predictions

The summer box office season officially kicks off in the manner it has many times lately… with an expected Marvel Cinematic Universe juggernaut. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness looks to accomplish some records after previous franchise entry Spider-Man: No Way Home set plenty of its own. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Benedict Cumberbatch’s return as the mystical doc here:

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Box Office Prediction

My estimate would give Multiverse the 7th largest domestic premiere of all time and the highest ever for the month of May (topping The Avengers). It would be #4 in terms of MCU entries – behind Avengers: Endgame, No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War. 

No other film is daring to open against this and family friendly entries The Bad Guys (after two weeks on top) and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 should slide a spot. Everything Everywhere All at Once is holding extremely well from week to week and it could rise to fourth over Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. 

Here’s how I think the top 5 will look:

1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Predicted Gross: $208.5 million

2. The Bad Guys

Predicted Gross: $10 million

3. Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore 

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (April 29-May 1)

Before Marvel begins its domination, it was a pretty quiet weekend with The Bad Guys repeating in first. The DreamWorks Animation effort made $16.2 million, topping my $14.4 million projection for $44 million in 10 days.

Most holdovers managed to slightly exceed my expectations. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 stayed in second at $11.5 million compared to my $10.8 million call. Total is $161 million.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore continued its ho-hum run in third with $8.3 million, just above my $7.7 million take. The three-week tally is a disappointing $79 million.

The Northman was fourth in its sophomore outing with $6.3 million. I went with $5.6 million and it’s at $22 million.

Everything Everywhere All at Once actually had a 2% increase with $5.5 million to round out the top five (I said $4.2 million). The A24 Oscar hopeful has made an impressive $35 million.

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent was sixth with $3.8 million (I predicted $3.5 million) for $13 million in two weeks.

Finally, Liam Neeson’s streak of low grosses stayed intact as Memory opened in 8th with $3.1 million. That’s in line with his recent (non) earners and just below my $3.3 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 29-May 1 Box Office Predictions

Before Doctor Strange and his Marvel friends dominate the box office next weekend, it should be an unmemorable one as April closes out. The only new release is Liam Neeson’s action thriller Memory and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Memory Box Office Prediction

My meager $3.3 million estimate for Memory (in line with recent Neeson pics) could leave it outside the top five with the family friendly holdovers maintaining the 1-2-3 positions.

The Bad Guys got off to a terrific start (more on that below) and it should easily maintain first position with a drop potentially in the 45-50% range. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore should follow and the 4-5 spots may again be held by The Northman and The Incredible Weight of Massive Talent. Depending on how far Talent falls, it may find itself in a battle for 5th with Memory. However, we also have Everything Everywhere All at Once and it could nab the 5 spot with another meager decline.

And with that, ny take on the weekend’s top 7:

1. The Bad Guys

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

4. The Northman

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

6. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

7. Memory

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (April 22-24)

DreamWorks Animation had an even bigger than anticipated hit on their hands as The Bad Guys did good business at $23.9 million, easily surpassing my $16.7 million projection. As mentioned, it should have little trouble stealing a second weekend at #1 before the Doctor arrives in May.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 held in second with $15.6 million, right in line with my $15.5 million call. The blockbuster sequel has amassed $146 million in its three weeks of release.

The news got worse for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. It fell from first to third with a steep 67% sophomore drop at $14 million. I was a tad higher at $15.1 million. In what should be the franchise’s last installment (it’s hard to justify fourth and fifth chapters as originally planned), the two-week tally is a mere $67 million. Reaching $100 million domestically is a stretch.

The Viking action drama The Northman slightly exceeded most prognosticators with $12.2 million in fourth. The Robert Eggers directed tale sailed ahead of my $10.3 million prediction. Problem is – its budget is reportedly a massive $90 million.

Nicolas Cage’s meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent opened in fifth with a muted $7.1 million, not quite matching my $7.9 million estimate. Despite glowing reviews, it couldn’t quite branch out beyond cinephiles who attended.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Memory Box Office Prediction

Can Memory reverse the string of forgettable Liam Neeson pics we’ve seen lately or will it fall in line with his recent underwhelming performers? Slated for April 29th, this casts him as an assassin dealing with cognitive lapses. Martin Campbell (who kicked off the Brosnan and Craig 007 eras with Goldeneye and Casino Royale) directs. He most recently helmed the lackluster The Protege with Maggie Q and Michael Keaton.  Costars include Guy Pearce (who starred in the acclaimed Memento which covered similar themes) and Monica Bellucci.

It’s been nearly a decade and a half since Neeson resurged his career with Taken. This second life as an action star resulted in some hits, but there’s been more misses recently. The Marksman and Blacklight took in $3.7 and $3.5 million, respectively, in the COVID era. I see no reason why Memory wouldn’t suffer a similar fate and the gross may even dip a bit.

Memory opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million