Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 22nd Edition

We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…

Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Lion (PR: 6)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

6. Fences (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Sully (PR: 13)

13. Jackie (PR: 12)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Hall, Christine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Loving (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Trolls

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)

2. 13th (PR: 1)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

5. Gleason (PR: 4)

Other Possibilties

6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. Weiner (PR: 7)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 3)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)

4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)

9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Neruda

The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki

Julieta

Ma’Rosa

The Ardennes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 5)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Love &  Friendship (PR: 4)

4. Allied (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 6)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

8. Silence (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 3)

7. Sully (PR: 6)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jackie (PR: 10)

10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

4. Deadpool (PR: 5)

5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)

7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jackie

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

Love & Friendship

Doctor Strange

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 7)

3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

4. Lion (PR: 2)

5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Jackie (PR: 3)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Moana (PR: 4)

9. The BFG (PR: 10)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)

4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)

8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)

9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)

10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po

“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 5)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Allied

Love & Friendship

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. La La Land (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Allied

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

5. Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 7)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

10. Deadpool (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 6)

7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sully

Star Trek Beyond

Deadpool

A Monster Calls

That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

8 Nominations

Moonlight

7 Nominations

Lion

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Silence

4 Nominations

Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3 Nominations

Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins

2 Nominations

Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book

1 Nomination

Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 15th Edition

Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.

The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart. 

Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.

Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 2)

5. Fences (PR: 5)

6. Lion (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 9)

12. Jackie (PR: 11)

13. Sully (PR: 13)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Live by Night (PR: 17)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

The Founder

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Silence

Liam Neeson, Silence

Stephen Henderson, Fences

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 3)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 8)

8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay

Patriots Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Fences (PR: 1)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 2)

5. Arrival  (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

10. Sully (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Indignation

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)

3. Moana (PR: 2)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)

9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Miss Hokusai

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. 13th (PR: 1)

2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)

4. Gleason (PR: 3)

5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)

7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)

9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Miss Sharon Jones

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. Elle (PR: 4)

3. The Salesman (PR: 6)

4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

6. Neruda (PR: 10)

7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)

8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)

10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

A Man Called Ove

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Jackie (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Lion (PR: 7)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

10. Live by Night (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Allied (PR: 6)

4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 4)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

8. Silence (PR: 5)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

10. Fences (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Lion (PR: 4)

8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fences (PR: 10)

10. Jackie (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Hell or High Water

Live by Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)

3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)

5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)

9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)

Dropped Out:

The BFG

Hidden Figures

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Jackie (PR: 4)

4. Moana (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

7.  Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Arrival

Hidden Figures

Hacksaw Ridge

Manchester by the Sea

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)

5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)

7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)

9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Runnin” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Live by Night (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Allied (PR: 10)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)

4. Sully (PR: 9)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)

7. Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)

9. Passengers (PR: 10)

10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Silence

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)

5. Arrival (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 4)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. Arrival (PR: 6)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 7)

7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Captain America: Civil War

That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

7 Nominations

Moonlight

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Lion

4 Nominations

Fences

3 Nominations

Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals 

1 Nomination

Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…

2016 Golden Globe Predictions

The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.

Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Arrival

Fences

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Silence

Alternate: Jackie

Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or Hacksaw Ridge to get in.

BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Florence Foster Jenkins

La La Land

The Lobster

Rules Don’t Apply

20th Century Women

Alternate: Hail, Caesar!

Potential Surprise: Captain Fantastic managing to get recognized.

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences

Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Tom Hanks, Sully

Denzel Washington, Fences

Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.

Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for The Founder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson

Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Amy Adams, Arrival

Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial

Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Susan Sarandon, The Meddler

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Alternate: Sally Field, My Name is Doris

Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded The Edge of Seventeen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Issey Ogata, Silence

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or Bleed for This.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

Viola Davis, Fences

Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Alternate: Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in Other People making the cut.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

Arrival

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Silence

Alternate: Fences

Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.

I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 1st Edition

Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!

It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.

Let us count them…

1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.

2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.

3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.

There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:

Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.

Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.

Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences. 

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.

Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.

Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.

4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.

Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

5. Fences (PR: 2)

6. Lion (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 8)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

9. Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

11. Jackie (PR: 9)

12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)

13. Sully (PR: 15)

14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

17. Live by Night (PR: 14)

18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

20. The Founder (PR: 19)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Pablo Larrain, Jackie

Best Actor

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)

5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)

9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)

8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

2. Moonlight (PR: 1)

3. La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. The Lobster (PR: 8)

8. Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 3)

3. Lion (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

8. Sully (PR: 10)

9. Elle (PR: 9)

10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Whew! And there you have it…

Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 24th Edition

Happy Turkey Day all! And yes we all know it’s Thursday and that also means my weekly Oscar predictions are here for you to stuff yourself with. Over the last week, we have seen new developments as Allied opened, reviews came out, and its awards chances went buh bye.

Furthermore, both Patriots Day and The Founder (both out next month) had critical reaction come in. Patriots has established itself as a dark horse candidate for recognition with Founder popping up in the bottom of possibilities based on their reviews.

Added to that… Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally got a trailer release about a month before its premiere.

So there’s a bit of movement happening on the charts and here’s my Thanksgiving projections for the eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 5)

5. Lion (PR: 4)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Loving (PR: 9)

8. Arrival (PR: 7)

9. Jackie (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

13. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Live by Night (PR: 13)

15. Sully (PR: 14)

16. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 15)

17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 16)

19. The Founder (Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

Allied

Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 7)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

5. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

3. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

4. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 6)

5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

7. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

10. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 6)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. La La Land (PR: 2)

4. Hell or High Water (PR: 5)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Loving (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 4)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

10. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 4)

4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Arrival (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Live by Night (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 10)

9. Elle (PR: 7)

10. Sully (PR: 9)

And that does it for your Thanksgiving edition of my Oscar predictions… Enjoy those leftovers!

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 17th Edition

Hey all! Back at it again with my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories for your perusal. Over the last seven days, a couple of developments have occurred. Both Rules Don’t Apply and Miss Sloane screened for critics at the AFI Film Festival. Both were looked at as potential awards contenders, yet their prospects both diminished upon their unveiling. The two films are both hovering around mid-60s on Rotten Tomatoes and the likelihood of either competing for the big prize is remote. That does not, however, hold true for their leading performances. Both Warren Beatty in Rules and Jessica Chastain in Sloane are slotted in the #6 position in Actor and Actress, making both of them real possibilities in those races.

On another note, Arrival opened at the box office higher than expected. Audiences were more polarized than critics (many of them loved it) on it, yet its chances at a Best Pic nod seems quite possible at press time.

Allied opens next weekend and reviews should be coming in soon, so its prospects will become much clearer when I write my column on Thanksgiving.

A final comment: next week will be the last weekly post for November and come December, I’ll be predicting the possibilities in all categories at the big dance.

And with that – my weekly Oscar forecast:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 3)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 9)

8. Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

13. Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Sully (PR: 16)

15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)

16. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)

17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 18)

18. Allied (PR: 20)

19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

7. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 7)

9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 2)

4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)

7. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 4)

8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

10. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aaron Eckhart, Sully

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 7)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 5)

5. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

7. Loving (PR: 4)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Elle (PR: 9)

8. Live by Night (PR: 7)

9. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Love & Friendship

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Miss Sloane

Yet another piece of the Oscar puzzle revealed itself last night when Miss Sloane premiered at the AFI Film Festival. This comes from director John Madden (who helmed the 1998 Best Picture winner Shakespeare in Love) and focuses on the issues of gun control and Washington lobbyists.

Some of the early reviews have been positive but others have been mixed (it sits at 60% at the moment on Rotten Tomatoes). This looked like a potential long shot contender for Picture and Director recognition and the buzz out of AFI suggests it won’t happen.

There’s a sterling supporting cast that includes Mark Strong, Michael Stuhlbarg, Alison Pill, John Lithgow, Jake Lacy, and Sam Waterston. Don’t look for their names, however, to garner any Academy attention. And there’s Gugu Mbatha-Raw, who’s been singled out in some notices and could be a dark horse contender in Supporting Actress (though that probably won’t happen).

No, where Miss Sloane could factor into awards season is the way it’s always thought to have been and that’s with the lead performance from Jessica Chastain. She’s been nominated twice before – in Supporting for 2011’s The Help and lead in 2012’s Zero Dark Thirty. Initial reviews have praised her work and remarked that she carries the movie.

In a normal year, Chastain might be a shoo-in for a nomination. Not in 2016 and that’s because Actress is incredibly competitive this year. The trio of Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land) all look poised for nods. The final two slots look to be filled by a combo of any of the following: Chastain, Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Amy Adams (Arrival). Upset entries could include Isabelle Huppert (Elle) or Rebecca Hall (Christine). And we are still waiting on Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures) and Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers).

See what I mean by competition? That said, Chastain (while no threat to win) solidified her name into this busy race with the Sloane screening.

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 10th Edition

Hey all – it’s Thursday and that means time to update Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since last Thursday, Denzel Washington’s eagerly awaited Fences held its first industry screenings and solidified itself as a major player this awards season. Beyond that, we’re still in a holding pattern with various titles yet to unveil themselves. That will change soon with such titles as Rules Don’t Apply, Miss Sloane, and Allied… so stay tuned as those pictures reveal themselves to be true contenders or not.

And with that, the November 10th rankings!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Moonlight (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 5)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Loving (PR: 8)

8. Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Arrival (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)

14. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 15)

15. Live by Night (PR: 14)

16. Sully (PR: 16)

17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)

18. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 18)

20. Allied (PR: 19)

Dropped Out:

Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

7. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)

8. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 9)

9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

10. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

3. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 4)

4. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)

8. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margo Martindale, The Hollars

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Loving (PR: 4)

5. Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Miss Sloane

I, Daniel Blake

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Live by Night (PR: 8)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

9. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Certain Women

And that will do it for today! Until next week…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 3rd Edition

Well – we’ve reached November, loyal blog readers and as I’ve mentioned before, I’m paring down the list of Oscar hopefuls in the eight major categories. Over the past two months, I’ve listed 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the Directing, Acting, and Screenplay races. Today, it gets whittled down to 20 in BP and 10 in the others. One development of note this week: it appears Dev Patel will be competing in Supporting Actor for Lion instead of Lead. That enters him in the derby for that race, which looks more unpredictable than any other at this moment.

There are still a number of Oscar hopefuls left to screen: Silence, Fences, Live by Night, Rules Don’t Apply, Passengers, The Founder, Hidden Figures, Miss Sloane, Gold among them. In other words, look for shifts in placement as these movies start receiving reviews and buzz in the near future.

Here’s how I have the respective competitions shaping up in this early November period:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Fences (PR: 3)

4. Moonlight (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 5)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 8)

9. Arrival (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)

13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)

14. Live by Night (PR: 15)

15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 24)

16. Sully (PR: 14)

17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)

18. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 16)

19. Allied (PR: 20)

20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)

Dropped Out:

Nocturnal Animals, Miss Sloane, Passengers, Gold, 13th

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

4. Kenneth Longergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

5. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Mike Mills (20th Century Women), Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Clint Eastwood (Sully)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)

7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 13)

10. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Dev Patel (Lion – moved to Supporting), Michael Keaton (The Founder), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Will Smith (Collateral Beauty), Miles Teller (Bleed for This)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 10)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Rachel Weisz (Denial), Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: Not Ranked; considered to be Lead)

5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)

7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

8. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)

10. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Aaron Eckhart (Sully), Sunny Pawar (Lion), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Timothy Spall (Denial), Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

10. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky), Elle Fanning (20th Century Women), Janelle Monae (Moonlight), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Miss Sloane), Laura Linney (Nocturnal Animals)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 3)

2. La La Land (PR: 1)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

4. Loving (PR: 5)

5. Jackie (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8. The Lobster (PR: 9)

9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Toni Erdmann, Allied, Rules Don’t Apply, Gold, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

8. Live by Night (PR: 8)

9. Love & Friendship (PR: 7)

10. Certain Women (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Sully, Elle, Indignation, The Jungle Book, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

And that shall do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 27th Edition

Thursday has arrived and that means a fresh round of Oscar predictions in the 8 biggest categories! The major development this week? The announcement that Viola Davis will compete in Supporting Actress for Fences instead of lead. I’ve had Davis firmly at #3 for weeks on my Best Actress board, but this news puts her at #1 in the supporting race. I’m also growing more confident that both Moonlight (which had a scorching debut in limited release) and Loving will make it into Best Picture and they both rise up in this week’s rankings.

Please note – this will be the final week of predicting 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 predictions in the other races. Starting next week as November arrives, it’ll be whittled down to 20 in Picture and 10 in the others.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Fences (PR: 3)

4. Moonlight (PR: 6)

5. Lion (PR: 4)

6. Jackie (PR: 5)

7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

8. Loving (PR: 10)

9. Arrival (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)

12. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)

13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 18)

14. Sully (PR: 14)

15. Live by Night (PR: 13)

16. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 15)

17. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

19. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)

20. Allied (PR: 21)

21. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Passengers (PR: 24)

23. Gold (PR: 22)

24. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 23)

25. 13th (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

The Founder

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)

11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)

12. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 10)

13. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 12)

15. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Ana DuVernay, 13th

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)

10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 10)

11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)

12. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 14)

13. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)

14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)

15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 9)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)

11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)

12. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)

14. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)

15. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Viola Davis, Fences (competing in Supporting Actress)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)

4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)

5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)

7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

8. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 7)

9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)

10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)

11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)

14. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 12)

15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: Not Ranked, listed in Lead Actress)

2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

7. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 12)

10. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 8)

11. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

12. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)

14. Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Jackie (PR: 3)

5. Loving (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8. Miss Sloane (PR: 9)

9. The Lobster (PR: 12)

10. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)

11. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 10)

12. Allied (PR: 13)

13. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 15)

14. Gold (PR: 14)

15. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 11)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 4)

7. Love & Friendship (PR: 7)

8. Live by Night (PR: 8)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 15)

10. Certain Women (PR: 14)

11. Sully (PR: 10)

12. Elle (PR: 9)

13. Indignation (PR: 13)

14. The Jungle Book (PR: 12)

15. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 11)

Until next week…!