Tag: A24

June 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/17): It is being reported that The Death of Robin Hood is only hitting around 1000 screens so I revising my estimate down from $8 million to a mere $3.8 million. That would put it in outside of the top 5

Toy Story 5 should dominate the upcoming weekend as the franchise enters its fourth decade of existence. The other premiere is Michael Sarnoski’s The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman in the title role. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Toy Story 5 Box Office Prediction
The Death of Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

In order to set the series record for highest opening, Disney/Pixar’s fifth round of Woody and Buzz needs to top the $120 million earned by part 4 in 2019. I’ve got it doing that with plenty of room to spare. My prediction also gives it 2026’s largest out of the gate haul currently held by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie with $131 million.

I’m not expecting much from Robin Hood and my fourth place forecast could decrease if the screen count is lower than the 2000-2500 venues I’m assuming. The A24 title seemingly hasn’t picked up much buzz though it’ll hope for some Father’s Day traffic.

Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg got off to a decent if unspectacular beginning (more on that below). The sci-fi adventure hopes for a somewhat meager sophomore frame drop though I’ve got it falling in the low to mid 50s.

Obsession should be third while holdovers Scary Movie and Backrooms should duke it out for fifth place with the latter perhaps having a slight edge.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $166.8 million

2. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million

3. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

5. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 12-14)

In short, everything made less than I projected over the weekend. In more detail, Disclosure Day kicked off in the middle of its anticipated range with $44.5 million. I thought Spielberg’s return to the alien genre would fare better at $51.6 million. The B Cinemascore grade, not encouraging for a blockbuster, suggests a heftier drop than I might’ve originally thought could be coming.

Obsession, in its fifth frame, at last saw it grosses go down. That said, the 25% decline to $19 million gave the horror smash (and now Oscar contender in my view) a total of $188 million thus far.

Scary Movie had a massive 74% fall in weekend #2 with $14.2 million compared to my far more generous $22 million take. The sixth edition in the spoof series sits at $84 million.

Backrooms was fourth with $11.5 million, just under my $12.4 million call. This scary movie has amassed $160 million after three weeks.

Finally, Masters of the Universe solidified placement as a summer flop with a 70% plummet in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million. Once again, my benefit doubting forecast of $13.5 million proved false. The two-week tally is a weak $46 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Death of Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (06/17): It is being reported that The Death of Robin Hood is only hitting around 1000 screens so I revising my estimate down from $8 million to a mere $3.8 million

A24, fresh off a studio best opening with Backrooms, aims for respectable grosses with The Death of Robin Hood on June 19th. That could be wishful thinking. Michael Sarnoski, maker of Pig and A Quiet Place: Day One, directs Hugh Jackman in the title role. Supporting players include Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, Murray Bartlett, and Noah Jupe.

The buzz seems quiet for the umpteenth version of the legendary character’s adventures. Critics aren’t overly impressed with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. The last time we saw Robin Hood onscreen was 2018 with Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx headlining and the result was a highly disappointing $9.1 million debut.

I’ve yet to see a theater count for Jackman’s turn, but I suspect this could fare even worse. Assuming 2000-2500 venues (my projection will change if the number is considerably different), I’ll say it does.

The Death of Robin Hood opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my Toy Story 5 prediction, click here:

Toy Story 5 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Club Kid

At last month’s Cannes Film Festival, Jordan Firstman’s feature length directorial debut Club Kid was a crowd favorite that sparked a bidding war won by A24. Firstman, known best for his Instagram posts, also penned the screenplay and stars as a party promoter unexpectedly forced to grow up. The dramedy’s supporting cast includes Cara Delevingne, Diego Calva, and Reggie Absolom.

With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 85 on Metacritic, A24 shelled out $17 million for distribution rights with a release expected in the fall. This could be a sleeper hit with the right promotion by the parties involved. I would expect an awards campaign with the likeliest shot being Original Screenplay and Best Picture and Firstman’s lead performance as longer shots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Death of Robin Hood

A dark interpretation of a folkloric character portrayed many times on film, Hugh Jackman has title role status in The Death of Robin Hood. Out June 19th, costars include Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, Murray Bartlett, and Noah Jupe. Michael Sarnoski, maker of Pig and A Quiet Place: Day One, directs.

Mr. Jackman is generally being appreciated for his downbeat take on the part. Reviews are varied with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. That’s more than 2010’s Robin Hood from Ridley Scott and starring Jackman’s Les Miserables singing partner Russell Crowe. It’s far better than 2018’s version with Taron Egerton, but the critical reaction does not indicate the A24 release will play in awards season. I doubt its distributor will prioritize it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

June 5-7 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/03): A day after posting my top 5 predictions, we are making it a top 6. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act wasn’t really on my radar screen. However, the combination of episodes for the adult web animated series opens Thursday and is expected to make some noise. My $13.1 million Friday to Sunday guesstimate gives it the 5 spot, knocking The Mandalorian to sixth.

While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Scary Movie Box Office Prediction
Masters of the Universe Box Office Prediction

Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.

The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.

Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?

After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $47.5 million

2. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. Masters of the Universe

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

4. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

5. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

6. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (May 29-31)

Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.

Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.

A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.

Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.

Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.

Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Backrooms Box Office Prediction

A24 looks to achieve its largest opening weekend yet when Backrooms arrives on May 29th. Based on his own highly popular web series, Kane Parsons directs the sci-fi horror flick. Chiwetel Ejiofor leads a cast that includes Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass, Finn Bennett, and Lukita Maxwell.

With James Wan, Shawn Levy, and Osgood Perkins among the producers, this looks to capitalize on its YouTube source material which boasts nearly 80 millions views. In order to set a record premiere for its distributor, Backrooms would need to top the $27 million that last December’s Marty Supreme started with.

Even though its earnings might be front-loaded, my hunch is that this has a better shot at exceeding expectations than going under them. I think mid to high 50s is doable and that would give it the #1 spot over The Mandalorian and Grogu and Obsession.

Backrooms opening weekend prediction: $57 million

For my The Breadwinner prediction, click here:

The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction

For my Pressure prediction, click here:

Pressure Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Mother Mary

David Lowery’s latest is the psychological drama Mother Mary with Anne Hathaway portraying a pop singer and Michaela Cole as a fashion designer. Hunter Schafer and FKA Twigs are in the supporting cast though most write-ups are describing this as a two-hander. Out this weekend in limited release, the A24 title expands wide April 24th. The writer/director can sometimes be a critical darling with varied projects including Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, A Ghost Story, Pete’s Dragon, and The Green Knight.

Early reviews are as diverse as Lowery’s filmography. The 76% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 60 Metacritic hint at that spectrum. Some critics are claiming it’s among the auteur’s finest works while others are calling it a dud. Hathaway and Cole’s acting is being praised, but awards possibilities are likely limited to their character’s professions: music and costume design. Jack Antonoff and Charli XCX supplied original songs sung by Hathaway. Perhaps lead single “Burial” could be in contention as well as the threads worn throughout. Above the line attention is a long shot at best. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Undertone

Canadian horror flick Undertone was made for a teensy reported budget of $500k with the A24 pickup arriving in theaters this weekend. It marks the directorial debut Ian Tuason with Nina Kiri and Adam DiMarco starring.

While its distributor hopes to turn a nifty profit considering the price tag, Undertone is worthy of an Oscar Predictions post for one specific reason. While the 78% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 67 Metacritic are fine, Undertone‘s plot centers on paranormal noises and other auditory aspects.

That raises the possibility of this scoring a Sound nomination. The question is whether the Academy’s voters remember it. That might depend on A24’s campaign. The biggest challenge might be making the shortlist of ten for consideration. Heavy hitters such as The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three loom. If Undertone does get named among the ten, a spot in the top five seems likely. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Undertone Box Office Prediction

A24 is looking for Undertone to scare up some business with the low-budget (reportedly $500k) Canadian horror pic dropping on March 13th. From writer/director Ian Tuason and starring Nina Kiri and Adam DiMarco, the distributor picked up the title after its premiere last summer at Fantasia Fest. At that time, it landed mostly solid reviews with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 68 Metacritic.

That said, it’s hard to envision this having mass appeal as it should cater strictly to attentive genre followers. With no star power driving it and muted buzz, I suspect a debut under $5 million sounds about right.

Undertone opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Reminders of Him prediction, click here:

Reminders of Him Box Office Prediction

January 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson headline the sci-fi thriller Mercy this weekend and it looks to be the only newbie with a shot at the top spot or top 5 for that matter. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Mercy Box Office Prediction

With word-of-mouth lacking, Mercy has the air of a streaming title that is going the multiplex route. A debut over $10 million is certainly possible, but I’m going a tad lower. My estimate would put it just behind Avatar: Fire and Ash which I’m giving an unexpected sixth week atop the rankings.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple was a major disappointment out of the gate (more on that below). Despite an encouraging A- Cinemascore grade (the best of the four features in the long running franchise), it should experience the heftiest decline in the upper half of the charts. That likely means a slide from 2nd to 5th. Holdovers Zootopia 2 and The Housemaid should remain sturdier.

Return to Silent Hill is another new offering. I didn’t do an individual post for the horror threequel and I have it at $2.2 million, putting it well outside the top 5.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

2. Mercy

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

3. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (January 16-18)

In an unanticipated twist, Avatar: Fire and Ash managed to place 1st for a fifth week over MLK weekend with $14.4 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s a tad below my $15.5 million forecast as the third pic in the series is up to $364 million.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple severely underperformed with $12.5 million for runner-up status. Even with the MLK Monday factored in ($14.4 million over four days), that’s less than half of what predecessor 28 Years Later brought in last summer and easily under my $20.1 million take.

Zootopia 2 was third in weekend #8 with $9.1 million, in line with my $8.6 million call. The Disney sequel stands at $390 million with $400 million around the corner.

The Housemaid was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.9 million) as the blockbuster thriller crossed nine digits with $107 million after five weeks.

Marty Supreme rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. With an additional $5.4 million in its coffers, the total stands at $79 million and it has become A24’s largest domestic earner.

Finally, Primate was sixth with $5 million, not matching my $6 million projection. The rabid chimp saga has made $19 million after two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…