Nuisance Bear won the Grand Jury Prize for documentaries at the Sundance Film Festival back in January and now A24 is distributing it stateside in Los Angeles in November with a New York release in December. Documenting the migration of polar bears in Canada, the festival crowdpleaser is directed by Gabriela Osio Vanden and Jack Weisman. It adapts their 2021 short film into a feature-length experience.
The truncated version from five years ago made the shortlist for the genre’s category, but didn’t place among the five eventual nominees. The longer Bear has 97% on Rotten Tomatoes though the 65 on Metacritic demonstrates some reserved reactions. As far as Sundance docs that took the Jury Prize, only 2021’s Summer of Soul (which won) and 2024’s Porcelain War have made the quintet in recent years.
Nuisance could make the shortlist too though I’m skeptical it makes the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (10/21): I didn’t do an individual post for Wicker with Olivia Colman, but with the news that it is debuting on over 1400 screens, my $4.9 million puts it in fifth place on my chart.
Clayface from the DC Universe was, until very recently, expected to easily rule the box office charts this weekend. That may be challenged from a previously unanticipated source. We also have Laika Animation’s critically acclaimed Wildwood and Taika Waititi’s far from acclaimed sci-fi dramedy Klara and the Sun starring Jenna Ortega premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Clayface could gross high teens for a floor to possibly mid to high 20s in the best case scenario. My estimate puts it right in the middle of the range in the low 20s. That’s far from impressive but not too shabby considering its reported $40 million budget.
As mentioned, that figure was thought to be enough to give it bragging rights at #1. Then You Can See Everything happened. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary about imprisoned Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes exceeded all expectations with a sizzling #2 debut on 855 screens (more on its opening below). It is slated to grow to around 2600 venues this weekend. I think the word-of-mouth could mean a low to mid 20s output in its sophomore frame. That means I’m giving it the edge for the top spot.
Wildwood, despite glowing reviews, may fall under $10 million for a fourth place start. As for Klara, my meager $2.3 million guesstimate might mean it struggles to even make the top 10.
Current champ Street Fighter should be third with a low 60s percentage fall while holdovers Sense and Sensibility, Whalefall, and Other Mommy all post similar grosses.
Here’s how I see it all shaking out:
1. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $22 million
3. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
5. Wicker
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
6. Sense and Sensibility
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
7. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
8. Whalefall
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Video game based Street Fighter kicked off in line with expectations at $30.7 million for first, managing to outdo my $24.5 million take. I look for it to fade quickly.
A24 nailed down the second highest non-concert documentary opening in history behind 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 with You Can See Everything. With over $18k per screen, the doc (which no one knew existed until it surprise screened at Telluride) was runner-up with $15.6 million. That’s well beyond my $8.9 million prediction as its future looks rosy.
Other Mommy dropped to third with $8.2 million (a 70% plummet) compared to my $9.1 million call. The horror flick with Jessica Chastain sits at $44 million after two weeks.
Survival tale Whalefall flopped in fourth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2 million projection. Mixed reviews helped sink it.
Sense and Sensibility rounded out the top five with a respectable $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.3 million forecast. The latest Jane Austen adaptation may hold up fairly in subsequent weekends.
Finally, Verity was sixth with $6 million (I said $5.9 million) as the romantic thriller brought its three-week tally to $65 million.
Ever since its surprise premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, Nathan Fielder and Primetime director Lance Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything has been picked up considerable buzz that could translate to impressive box office numbers (especially for its genre). The A24 release finds the filmmakers deeply involved in documenting the life of Theranos founder and convicted swindler Elizabeth Holmes as she awaits her prison stay and beyond.
Clocking in at nearly three hours, Everything is one of 2026’s most acclaimed titles at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 97 on Metacritic. It is rolling out in limited fashion this Friday, October 16th. A theater count has yet to be published which makes a projection tricky.
Everything appears to be playing indie venues and select AMC locations. My local indie theater’s showtimes this coming weekend are filling up quickly while the AMC showings have better availability. With some pundits predicting it could be the first doc to receive a Best Picture nomination, the curiosity factor should be high.
The largest non-concert documentary opening belongs to 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 at nearly $24 million. I don’t believe this challenge that, but the second best is Chimpanzee with $10.6 million. In a best case scenario, Everything might achieve that figure or slightly more.
My forecast could fluctuate once I see a count. For now, I’ll put it a little under $10 million.
You Can See Everything opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million
For the first time in nearly a decade, Tom Cruise headlines a picture that isn’t an action sequel via Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s satire Digger. Cruise and company will need to fend off a challenge from Verity, a psychological thriller based on Colleen Hoover’s novel starring the inescapable Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Truth be told, I think Ms. Hathaway easily holds the advantage. Verity should be able to bring in a decent (especially female) crowd familiar with the source material. Mid teens could be the floor though I have this in the mid 20s for a first place showing.
I would’ve pegged Digger for a similar start a couple of weeks back. However, reviews are subpar and this is not your typical Cruise content that audiences have grown accustomed to recently. My projection has steadily declined and my barely double digits forecast could put it anywhere from second place to fifth. That would be a disastrous kickoff for the satire with a $125 million budget.
Holdovers Avengers Endgame: Encore, Resident Evil, and Heart of the Beast may all be in the same range. I have #s 2-5 separated by a mere $2 million and here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Verity
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
2. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. Heart of the Beast
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Digger
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. Avengers Endgame: Encore
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (September 25-27)
Not long after Spider-Man relinquished the top spot, the MCU returned to #1 with the re-release (with some extra footage) of 2019’s Avengers: EndgameEncore. Meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, the epic comic book experience accomplished its mission and added $26.1 million to its coffers. That’s beyond my $22.6 million take as its domestic total ballooned to $884 million.
Resident Evil, after a terrific debut, slid to second with an understandable 62% dip to $23 million. I was on target with a $24 million prediction as the franchise reboot passed the century mark after ten days with $103 million.
Three newcomers filled with the rest of the top five with Brad Pitt’s Heart of the Beast in third. With a German Shepherd as his costar, the survival drama earned $20 million, surpassing my $16.8 million call. That gross would be more notable if not for its $80M+ budget, but it’s still at the high end of its anticipated range.
Primetime starring Robert Pattinson rode a wave of favorable buzz to $19.1 million in fourth compared to my $14.5 million prediction. Lots of audience members chose to have a seat for the A24 title which has a lowly $15 million price tag.
The news was not as positive for DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island. Despite fresh critical reaction, the family friendly tale was fifth with $13 million (I went higher at $17.2 million). It’ll hope for families to catch up in subsequent weekends though it’s undoubtedly a flat result.
The People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival is a truly predictive bellwether for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? Thirteen of the past fourteen winners of the Canadian prize have nabbed a BP mention. That extends to sixteen of the last eighteen including the following Academy winners for the highest prize: Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. Movies that took People’s Choice and were nominated for BP include Silver Linings Playbook, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jojo Rabbit, American Fiction, and last year’s Hamnet. Since 2012, only Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck took the PCA award and did not receive a BP nom from the Academy.
Additionally, the runner-up and second runner-up designation at TIFF is filled with Best Picture winners and nominees in the 21st century. That list includes Juno, Argo, Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, The Power of the Dog, The Holdovers, Emilia Pérez, Anora, and Frankenstein.
So… this is kind of a big deal. For six years in a row, two of the three People Choice’s selections from each year were honored with BP mentions from the Academy.
That’s why The Black Ball (La bola negra in Spanish) unquestionably punched its ticket to a Best Picture nod and a chance to emerge victorious. Truth be told, it was there already. The international drama (a near shoo-in winner for International Feature Film in a few months) was TIFF’s top choice. I’ve had it ranked 2nd behind Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey for months. An argument can be made (especially now) to rank the Netflix property in first. Don’t be surprised if I still roll with Odyssey but Ball upped its opportunity even more so with today’s annoucement.
Many assumed Ball would get TIFF’s International People’s Choice prize but that surprisingly went to Simon Stone’s Elsinore with Andrew Scott (in what is anticipated to be a Best Actor nominated performance). This is a nice prize for Elsinore‘s chances in BP.
The real intrigue lies with TIFF’s runner-up selections: Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky and Sian Heder’s Being Heumann. The former was tagged as a crowd pleaser upon its screening though reviews were mixed. The latter is Heder’s follow-up to her Best Picture winning CODA from 2021. If this is the seventh year where two out of three make the Oscar BP cut, I haven’t had either of these in my top ten. The streak could be broken this year, but I’d say Rocky has a better shot than Heumann.
It is worth noting some contenders that didn’t make the top 3 from the festival going voters. Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine were both strong possibilities. I have both in my BP ten and today’s developments are unlikely to take either out. One film that could have benefited more had it been included is Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid. A People’s Choice shoutout would’ve increased its visibility and now I think it might not be a major campaigning priority for A24 (who have other hopefuls to champion).
Bottom line: The Black Ball is rolling and should continue to do so as the season begins in earnest.
Misty Green is Chris Rock’s first directorial feature in a dozen years since his well-received Top Five. The A24 release has premiered in Toronto prior to its October 9th stateside release. Rosalind Eleazar, best known for her small screen work on Apple TV’s Slow Horses, plays the title role with a supporting cast including Adam Driver, Daniel Kaluuya, Anna Kendrick, Topher Grace, and Mr. Rock himself.
Initial reaction from TIFF is a mixed bag. The initial Metacritic score is 73. What’s not mixed is the praise for Eleazar in her portrayal of a fading Hollywood star. Critics are also being kind to Kaluuya, but the Supporting Actor winner for 2020’s Judas and the Black Messiah‘s role is likely too small for recognition.
Green‘s only Oscar play is for Eleazar. However, A24 could face a challenge in their campaign. Julianne Moore (The Debut) appears to be the frontrunner and Olivia Wilde (The Invite) has a strong shot at inclusion. Will A24 really get three performers in? I’m not so sure and that’s probably why Eleazar won’t be in my top five in my next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Telluride Film Festival was abuzz with word that a nearly three hour documentary screening would be unveiled yesterday from A24. That doc turned out to be You Can See Everything from Canadian comedian Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim (also doing the fest circuit for directing Primetime).
In Everything, the filmmakers are granted access to Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she begins serving an 11 year prison sentence for fraud. While Holmes’s story and legal activity has been covered in an HBO doc and in the acclaimed limited series The Dropout with Amanda Seyfried, Everything received kudos at Telluride. It promises to be one of the highest profile docs of 2026 when it comes out in October.
The early WOM and anticipated wide exposure could certainly mean it grabs one of the five slots in Best Documentary Feature. I will warn that this branch of the Academy can be unpredictable. I’m not sure Everything is ahead of my current frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Harlem and perhaps not others like American Doctor. I am sure that it has one of the creepiest teasers I’ve witnessed that isn’t a horror flick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Musical comedy The Debut is Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to 2024’s A Real Pain which was nominated for Best Original Screenplay and earned Kieran Culkin a Best Supporting Actor victory. It probably came awfully close to a Best Picture spot. Based on its Telluride premiere before its December 11th stateside release, The Debut‘s Oscar haul should be more substantial. Julianne Moore stars as a bored New Jersey housewife cast in a community theater production with Paul Giamatti as her challenging director. The supporting cast includes Eisenberg, Halle Bailey, Havana Rose Liu, and Bernadette Peters.
Distributed by A24 (who will have a busy season with The Invite and Primetime as well), early WOM is electric. Metacritic stands at 90 while the 8 RT write-ups are all fresh. Don’t be surprised if this is the studio’s most viable contender in several races. This is also the type of subject matter that should hold major appeal to the Academy.
That is especially true in Actress and Supporting Actor. Before the Telluride bow, I had Moore and Giamatti listed 1st in their respective derbies. Frankly, I felt more confident about Giamatti’s placement. There is an overdue factor with the veteran actor and this seemed like a perfect vehicle for recognition. He was likely close to win status in supporting for 2005’s Cinderella Man and lead for 2023’s The Holdovers. He could certainly maintain his pole position status in my next update.
Yet it’s Moore who is generating career best notices. She is going for her sixth nom from the Academy. After being up in supporting for 1997’s Boogie Nights, lead for The End of the Affair (1999) and Far from Heaven (2002), and supporting for 2002’s The Hours, Moore was a Best Actress winner for Still Alice in 2014. I basically had her as a placeholder in lead for The Debut, but Telluride buzz has shown her as a huge threat to make a second trip to the podium a few months down the line.
Eisenberg appears poised for another Original Screenplay shot while his inclusion in Best Director is more of a question mark. I do feel The Debut‘s reaction sets it up for a Best Picture slot. Editing, Casting, Original Score, and Original Song are also on the table. A24 is expected to tout a track titled “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” sung by Moore and Peters. Eisenberg, Moore, and Giamatti are going to be busy on the awards circuit for the 99th ceremony and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Concentrating on a formative year in the mid 1970s for the late chef and travel show host Anthony Bourdain, biopic Tony has a limited theatrical engagement beginning August 7th before nationwide expansion on August 21st. Matt Johnson (BlackBerry) directs with Dominic Sessa in the title role. Costars include Emilia Jones, Dagmara Dimińczyk, Rich Sommer, Stavros Halkias, Leo Woodall, and Antonio Banderas.
Many reviews are praising unconventionality in an often conventional genre with 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic. The latter score is more indicative of limited awards prospects. A24 might be more preoccupied with Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Olivia Wilde’s The Invite. Sessa, who garnered acclaim for his big screen debut in 2023’s The Holdovers, is once again getting high marks. However, the distributor would have to really push him in a Best Actor derby that is already looking crowded. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Remaking the 2020 Spanish comedy The People Upstairs, Olivia Wilde is drawing acclaim for her third directorial feature The Invite. Currently in limited release, it’s out wide on July 10th. The four-hander stars Seth Rogen, Wilde, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton.
After its first screenings at Sundance back in January, a bidding war ensued with A24 winning out. On the Fourth of July weekend, The Invite welcomed crowds at 28 venues across New York, L.A., and other big cities. It even managed to crack the top ten in 10th with $800,000 plus for a noteworthy per screen average.
With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic, Wilde’s latest is starting to generate awards buzz. Her 2019 behind the camera debut Booksmart did the same while 2022’s Don’t Worry Darling was a critical and commercial letdown.
Like many platform titles, The Invite should play stronger in large markets. I do think this can manage mid single digits on approximately 1600 screens.
The Invite opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
