Morgan Neville’s Piece by Piece looks to build awards momentum at the Telluride and Toronto festivals before its October 11th domestic bow. The unique documentary is a biopic of musician Pharrell Williams told via Lego animation. It includes interviews (Lego style) with artists its subject has collaborated with including Jay-Z, Justin Timberlake, Gwen Stefani, Snoop Dogg, Kendrick Lamar, and Busta Rhymes.
2013’s 20 Feet from Stardom from Neville (focused on background singers) took home the Oscar for Documentary Feature. Five years later, his Mister Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was widely expected to be nominated and ended up snubbed.
Piece by Piece is a head scratcher. Focus Features will surely campaign for it in Animated Feature and Documentary Feature. Early reviews are mostly complimentary though not gushing. I think it stands a stronger chance in Animated Feature. However, competition is real with titles such as Inside Out 2, The Wild Robot, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Flow, Moana 2, and Memoir of a Snail. The mishmash’s best chance at recognition could be one of its original songs where Pharrell has competed before with “Happy” from Despicable Me 2.
The Despicable Me/Minions has been a financial force over the past decade and a half, but not so much with awards voters. Despicable Me 4 is out this Wednesday from director Chris Renaud. Vocal work is provided by Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell.
The three direct predecessors and the two spinoff Minions titles have eaxg grossed $250 million or higher domestically since 2010. Only Despicable Me 2 generated any Oscar nods. Those were in Animated Feature and Original Song (the Pharrell smash “Happy”) and Frozen beat it out in both races (the latter with its signature tune “Let It Go”).
Part 4 of the franchise has a 63% RT rating. That’s lower than part 1 (80%) and 2 (75%) and Minions:The Rise of Gru (70%) while slightly above part 3 (58%) and Minions (56%). In short, this does appear primed to enter the series back in the Oscar mix. Lucky for it, the dollars should continue to flow. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Universal and Illumination Entertainment have posted great results through five pictures in the Despicable Me franchise and they look to extend their luck with part 4 on July 3rd. The animated comedy is directed by Chris Renaud with Steve Carell, Kristin Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell providing voiceover work.
This has been a highly durable series in its nearly decade and a half of existence. Despicable Me debuted with $56 million in July of 2010 with an eventual $251 million domestic gross. Part 2 arrived on Wednesday, July 3, 2013 and therefore had the same release pattern as this entry. It took in $84 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday three-day with $143 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday (the 4th). The final tally was $368 million. Despicable Me 3 came in with $72 million in July 2017 and $264 million overall.
I didn’t forget the Minions. The spin-off tale tallied $115 million out of the gate in July 2015 with $336 million domestically. Two summers ago, sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru banked $107 million en route to $370 million total.
Animation brought summer 2024 out of the doldrums via Inside Out 2 which vastly exceeded expectations. It’ll still be making money over the holiday frame, but Despicable should fall in range with some of its predecessors. I don’t foresee a premiere as high as part 2 (though no one thought Inside Out 2 would amass over $150 million in weekend 1).
A mid to high 70s Friday to Sunday should mean a five-day in the $125 million plus space for another Despicable victory.
Despicable Me 4 opening weekend prediction: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Migration is the latest animated offering from Illumination and it arrives in theaters this Friday. The comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.
With its review embargo lifted, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is a fair though far from overwhelming 71%. This is Illumination’s 14th big screen effort that began with Despicable Me back in 2010. While the studio’s product usually succeeds in being a box office winner, only Despicable Me 2 in 2013 managed a Best Animated Feature Oscar at the Oscars.
Don’t look for Migration to be the second. Precursors like Critics Choice and the Globes have already ignored it. Illumination does have another 2023 contender in the financial behemoth The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The chances are stronger (if still unlikely) that it makes the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This little blog of mine is over 10 years old now and a summer tradition has been to highlight the cinematic seasons of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We saw recaps of 1992, 2002, and 2012 around this time in 2022. Now this site is aged enough that I shall only look back at a decade ago. Therefore let’s shine a light on 2013 and the offerings between May and August.
Here’s how it works. I’ll recount the top 10 grossers domestically as well as other notable features and noteworthy flops. It was the summer after The Avengers dominated and Tony Stark still managed to rule in his own franchise.
Let the countdown begin!
10. The Great Gatsby
Domestic Gross: $144 million
Baz Luhrmann’s second collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio may have drawn mixed critical reaction, but audiences turned up and it won both Oscars it was nominated for (Production Design and Costume Design). It is still the stylish filmmaker’s largest worldwide earner even with last year’s success of Elvis.
9. We’re the Millers
Domestic Gross: $150 million
Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis headlined this raunchy comedy from Dodgeball maker Rawson Marshall Thurber. Like Gatsby, critics weren’t overly kind but crowds liked what they saw.
8. The Heat
Domestic Gross: $159 million
Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy (hot off Bridesmaids) teamed up for this buddy cop laugher from Paul Feig and it became the summer’s hottest live-action movie in its genre. Bullock would have a massive earner and Oscar nod in the fall with Gravity.
7. World War Z
Domestic Gross: $202 million
Some had it pegged as a potential financial disappointment, but this would turn out to be the biggest grossing zombie flick ever. Despite Brad Pitt’s presence and plenty of development rumors, a planned sequel has yet to materialize.
6. Star Trek Into Darkness
Domestic Gross: $228 million
JJ Abrams helmed this sequel two and a half years before taking on Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It holds the title of best global earning movie of the franchise.
5. Fast & Furious 6
Domestic Gross: $238 million
Vin Diesel and Paul Walker revved the series to unforeseen moneymaking heights at the time though part 7 would outdo it two years later. Six months after 6‘s release, Walker perished tragically in auto accident.
4. Monsters University
Domestic Gross: $268 million
The long gestating sequel to 2001’s Monsters University was a profitable venture for Pixar. It failed to nab an Animated Feature nod from the Academy (rare for the studio), but Disney likely wept into their cash.
3. Man of Steel
Domestic Gross: $291 million
The first picture in the DCEU came with gargantuan expectations with Zack Snyder directing and Henry Cavill donning the S. Reaction from critics and audiences was all over the map. Compared to this summer with the epic failure of The Flash, these were kinda the good ole days for DC.
2. Despicable Me 2
Domestic Gross: $368 million
Illumination dwarfed Pixar in the animated race with this sequel that became parent studio Universal’s most profitable film of all time. It’s also responsible for the season’s ubiquitous ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams.
1. Iron Man 3
Domestic Gross: $409 million
Tony Stark’s third solo adventure was generally considered an improvement on #2 as Shane Black handled the behind the camera work. It ended up as the year’s second best grosser behind November’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
Now for some others worthy of discussion:
The Conjuring
Domestic Gross: $137 million
It might be just outside the top ten in 11th, but James Wan’s horror classic spawned a decade’s worth of sequels (two thus far) and spin-offs (Annabelle, The Nun) with no end in sight.
Now You See Me
Domestic Gross: $117 million
The heist pic from Louis Leterrier (who just directed Fast X) was a sleeper smash with a $350 million worldwide haul. A less regarded sequel came in 2016.
The Butler
Lee Daniels helmed this decades spanning tale of Forest Whitaker’s White House employee with Oprah Winfrey as his troubled wife. The studio was likely hoping for more awards attention than it ended up with, but the earnings were impressive.
Pacific Rim
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Guillermo del Toro’s monster mashup didn’t wow with a significant domestic take, but the overseas dollars were enough to spawn a panned 2018 sequel. The international haul makes it the Oscar winner’s personal best.
This Is the End
Domestic Gross: $101 million
This end of the world saga from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg was a star studded (from Michael Cera to Rihanna) dark comedy with critics on its side.
The Purge
Domestic Gross: $64 million
This dystopian horror pic launched another money minting series and was an early sleeper success for Blumhouse.
Blue Jasmine
Predicted Gross: $33 million
That number marks an impressive one for Woody Allen in the 21st century and this nabbed Cate Blanchett a Best Actress Academy Award.
Fruitvale Station
Domestic Gross: $16 million
Marking the first collaboration between Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, this indie drama was a critical darling. The pair would achieve colossal success in the years to follow with Creed and Black Panther.
There were lots of hits a decade ago. Yet there’s always the projects that don’t match expectations.
The Hangover Part III
Domestic Gross: $112 million
Audiences were growing weary of The Wolf Pack in the lambasted third entry. It came in well below the previous two.
Elysium
Domestic Gross: $93 million
Neill Blomkamp’s District 9 in 2009 was nominated for Best Picture. This sci-fi follow up with Matt Damon was considered a letdown by not joining the century club.
The Lone Ranger
Domestic Gross: $89 million
I’m gonna go ahead and say you couldn’t green light this $250 million adventure starring Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer today. It turns out Disney shouldn’t have 10 years ago as this came in far under expectations. The box office magic that director Gore Verbinski and Depp created with Pirates of the Caribbean was gone.
White House Down
Predicted Gross: $73 million
Roland Emmerich’s latest with Channing Tatum as a secret service agent and Jamie Foxx as POTUS had its thunder stolen in the spring by the similarly themed and better regarded Olympus Has Fallen (which spawned two sequels).
After Earth
Predicted Gross: $60 million
Moviegoers slapped down M. Night Shyamalan’s sci-fi epic starring the father son duo of Will and Jaden Smith. Reviews were harsh with a 12% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
The Internship
Domestic Gross: $44 million
Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson’s 2005 romp Wedding Crashers was a $209 million earning smash. Eight years later, very few signed up for this forgettable reunion.
R.I.P.D.
Predicted Gross: $33 million
It might have been going for the Men in Black crowd, but audiences shunned this sci-fi comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds. Somehow a direct to DVVD prequel was commissioned and released last year.
And there you have it! A look back at 2013 in the multiplex. I’ll have a 2014 recap conjured up next summer…
The Super Mario Bros. Movie is out tomorrow and looks to rule the Easter holiday frame. While big money is about to flow through the pipeline, reviews are more of the mixed variety. The Illumination Entertainment animated production of the Nintendo property sits at 56% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This is the 13th feature from the studio. Of the previous dozen, only one (2013’s Despicable Me 2) has managed a Best Animated Feature mention. Illumination’s titles generate coins, but not nominations. That doesn’t look to change with Mario and Luigi’s new adventure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Illumination Entertainment will rule the Fourth of July weekend at the box office when Minions: The Rise of Gru hits theaters on July 1st. This is the fifth entry in the franchise that began a dozen summers back with Despicable Me and the first in five years.
Some early reviews are out and they’re mostly indicating it’s a decent if unspectacular chapter of the series. With 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s higher than the two previous pics – 2015’s Minions (55%) and 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (59%). Of course, Gru‘s number will soon rise or fall as more critics weigh in.
2010’s Despicable Me (81%) and its 2013 sequel (75%) fared better, but only part two received awards attention. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and Original Song with Pharrell’s inescapable “Happy”. Due to Disney’s Frozen and the equally omnipresent “Let It Go”, it lost both.
Based on early buzz, I see no path for Gru to find its way to the Animated Feature derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M
Illumination and Universal Pictures should light up the Fourth of July weekend at the box office with Minions: The Rise of Gru. The sequel to the 2015 spinoff prequel and the fifth overall entry in the Despicable Me franchise, Kyle Balda directs with Steve Carell returning to voice the title character. Other performers in the booth include Pierre Coffin, Taraji P. Henson, Michelle Yeoh, RZA, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Lucy Lawless, Dolph Lundgren, Danny Trejo, Russell Brand, Julie Andrews, and Alan Arkin. How’s that for eclectic? I’m pretty sure this marks the first collaboration between Van Damme and Andrews.
This series has proved to be a financial windfall for its studio. All four previous pics have made over $250 million domestically. Minions took in $115 million out of the gate seven summers back with $336 million overall. Immediate predecessor Despicable Me 3 from 2017, while still a hit, wasn’t as high. It premiered with $72 million and ended up with $264 million.
Three years was previously the longest wait between films. The five year gap is a bit risky as some of its fans are simply older. We’ve also seen a very recent example of an animated disappointment with Pixar’s Lightyear.
That said, I suspect Gru will rise to the occasion with a four-day holiday haul in the $75-85 million range. I’m starting out on the lower end of that scale, but my estimate could go up in the days ahead.
Minions: The Rise of Gru opening weekend prediction: $86.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Over the weekend, Illumination Entertainment’s TheGrinch dominated the box office with a mid 60s debut. The animated pic continues a string of pleasing grosses for the studio that houses the lucrative DespicableMe/Minions franchise.
Could that mean TheGrinch finds its way into the mix for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars? It’s doubtful. For starters, reviews have been mixed as it currently sits at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. The race is also filling up with Incredibles2 and IsleofDogs with probable reserved spots and the upcoming RalphBreakstheInternet looking to nab one. I feel that other wide release pics like EarlyMan and Smallfoot could also be potential contenders.
Most importantly, while Illumination produces blockbusters, that success hasn’t translated into nominations. Only DespicableMe2 got one, with better reviewed titles like TheSecretLifeofPets and other Despicable efforts left out.
Bottom line: the studio’s Grinch reward will come from its earnings and not awards ceremonies. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
There’s only one new major release this weekend hitting multiplexes, but it’s a big one in the form of Spider-Man: Homecoming. This is the third iteration of the beloved web slinger with Tom Holland inheriting the tights after his cameo in Captain America: Civil War. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Spidey should easily rule the charts this weekend and my prediction puts it a couple million above what the original accomplished 15 years ago.
As for holdovers, Despicable Me 3 had a somewhat disappointing debut (more on that below) and I look for it to lose nearly half its audience in the sophomore frame.
Baby Driver, on the other hand, was quite a breakout hit and word of mouth is strong. Its drop-off shouldn’t be as pronounced. Wonder Woman and Transformers look to round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Spider-Man: Homecoming
Predicted Gross: $117.8 million
2. Despicable Me 3
Predicted Gross: $36.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. Baby Driver
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight
Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)
Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 3 earned an estimated $72.4 million, which easily placed it first. However, this was easily $10 million below most of the lowest guesstimates. I projected a higher haul at $88.7M.
Edgar Wright’s critically acclaimed Baby Driver greatly exceeded expectations with a $20.5 million Friday to Sunday gross and a cool $29.5 million since its Wednesday opening. This blew away my respective predictions of $10.9M and $15.8M and proved that audiences are hungry for programming in the summer that isn’t a sequel or reboot.
Transformers: The Last Knight slipped to third with $16.8 million (in line with my $17.4M forecast) for a $102M total.
Wonder Woman was close behind in fourth with $15.7 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its massive earnings to $346M.
Cars 3 rounded out the top five with $9.6 million (I was higher at $12.1M) for a $120M overall gross.
The poorly reviewed Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House was DOA in sixth place, earning only $8.7 million for its start (I said $13.8M).
Finally, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expanded its theater count and took in $3.1 million compared to my $3.8M prediction.
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