Tag: Terminator: Genisys

Terminator: Dark Fate Box Office Prediction

Arnold Schwarzenegger is back for the fifth time in his signature role with Terminator: Dark Fate next weekend. This time around, there’s some other franchise favorites who’ve gone unseen since 1991’s landmark Terminator 2: Judgment Day. James Cameron shares story credit in what’s being called a direct sequel to the first follow up from 28 years ago (Fate hits theaters just over 35 years after the original). That means you shouldn’t have to keep up with the three subsequent series entries. Also returning are Linda Hamilton as Sarah Connor and Edward Furlong as John Connor (a role that’s since been filled by Nick Stahl, Christian Bale, and Jason Clarke). Tim Miller, maker of Deadpool, directs with a supporting cast including Mackenzie Davis, Natalia Reyes, and Gabriel Luna.

Early word of mouth suggests this might be the most solid Terminator flick since 1991 (even though that’s not really saying a whole lot). The franchise hit a low point just over four years ago with Genisys. It was the only sequel not to reach $100 million domestically with at $89 million overall and reviews and audience reaction were poor. The inclusion of some favorites should help some, but this could still suffer from franchise fatigue that we’ve witnessed several times already in 2019.

Using comps for a debut is a little tricky as this is the first sequel not to open on a holiday weekend. Judgment, 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, and Genisys all premiered over Independence Day frames. 2009’s Terminator: Salvation rolled out over Memorial Day. For the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of their long weekends, Machines holds the record with $44 million. I don’t believe Fate gets there. The low mark is Genisys with $27 million. I don’t think this falls that low.

My hunch is that mid to high 30s is the likeliest scenario for the Governator and his familiar friends.

Terminator: Dark Fate opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million

For my Motherless Brooklyn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/motherless-brooklyn-box-office-prediction/

For my Arctic Dogs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/arctic-dogs-box-office-prediction/

For my Harriet prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/26/harriet-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: July 17-19

Two new pictures look to make waves at the box office when they open this weekend: Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Judd Apatow directed Amy Schumer comedy Trainwreck. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/09/ant-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/10/trainwreck-box-office-prediction/

Ant-Man has a wide range of possibility for how it opens out of the gate. If it debuts on the low end of expectations (mid 5os), it could find itself playing runner-up to the second weekend of Minions. However, my projection has it reaching #1 fairly easily.

Minions could see its sophomore frame lose about half its audience after the massive premiere it achieved over the weekend. That should leave the critically acclaimed Trainwreck in third place with a projected healthy opening in line with what Bridesmaids accomplished four summers ago.

Blockbuster leftovers Jurassic World and Inside Out should round out the top five.

And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:

1. Ant-Man

Predicted Gross: $73.3 million

2. Minions

Predicted Gross: $56.9 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Trainwreck

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

4. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Inside Out

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

Box Office Results (July 10-12)

As mentioned, the animated Despicable Me franchise spin-off Minions rocked the charts with $115.7 million, making it the second largest animated feature debut of all time (after Shrek the Third‘s $121.6M). This is well above my $96.4M prediction and finds this series in wonderful shape as it bodes very well for Despicable Me 3 in the summer of 2017.

Jurassic World was second with $18.1 million, edging my $16.3M estimate. The dino phenomenon stands at $590M domestically, good for fourth all time. Pixar’s Inside Out took third with $17.6 million, in line with my $17.3M projection and its total is at $284M.

In its second weekend, Terminator Genisys was fourth with $13.8 million, on target with my $14.5M projection. It’s made a middling $68M so far.

Horror flick The Gallows opened in fifth with a so-so $9.8 million, a touch above my $8.9M estimate while Magic Mike XXL was sixth in its sophomore engagement with $9.5 million, holding up considerably better than my $5.8M prediction. The sequel has taken in a less than expected $48M.

Finally, the Ryan Reynolds action thriller Self/less stumbled with an 8th place showing at just $5.4 million, well under my $9.7M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 10-12

The box office stranglehold held by Pixar’s Inside Out and Jurassic World looks to finally come to an end this weekend as Despicable Me franchise spin-off Minions looks to easily dominate the box office. Two new entries also populate the crowded marketplace: Ryan Reynolds action thriller Self/less and found footage horror flick The Gallows. You can read my detailed prediction posts on all the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/03/minions-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/04/selfless-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/04/the-gallows-box-office-prediction/

As stated, Minions could certainly flirt with an opening over $100 million, but I have it opening just shy of that mark. As for Self/less and The Gallows, I believe both will struggle to even make double digits and I’m predicting they won’t get there.

Current champs Inside Out and Jurassic should both slide a spot to the 2 and 3 position while dropping in the low 40s. In its second weekend, I’m predicting Terminator Genisys will fall a bit further than that after its disappointing opening while Magic Mike XXL looks to suffer a hefty decline after its surprisingly weak debut over the weekend.

And with that, we’ll make it a top seven prediction for this weekend:

1. Minions

Predicted Gross: $96.4 million

2. Inside Out

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 41%)

3. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Terminator Genisys

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. Self/less

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

6. The Gallows

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

7. Magic Mike XXL

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (July 3-5)

While two holdovers continued their impressive reign at multiplexes, two newcomer sequels failed to meet expectations.

Pixar’s Inside Out narrowly reached the #1 spot with $29.7 million, finally breaking Jurassic World‘s three week hold at the top. This was just under my $30.5M estimate. Its three week total stands at a rock solid $245 million.

Jurassic slipped to second with $29.2 million, on pace with my $28.7M projection. The movie of summer 2015 has amassed a gargantuan $556 million at press time and looks to reach $650M when all is said and done.

In third, Terminator Genisys got off to a disappointing start with $27 million over the three day weekend and $42.4 million for its five day holiday gross. This is below my respective estimates of $31.2M and $48.4M. The franchise appears to have run out of gas and Genisys will need truly impressive international numbers to justify a sequel. As for Arnold’s post gubernatorial film career, it continues to be littered with financial letdowns.

It had a much smaller budget than Terminator, but final results were lackluster for the week’s other new sequel Magic Mike XXL. The Channing Tatum pic made just $12.8 million over the three day weekend and $27.8 million since its Wednesday roll out, far under my respective projections of $24.8M and $44M. Considering the original three years ago made $39.1 million in its first three days, this is an incredibly low opening.

And in even further bad grossing sequel news, Ted 2 continued its way lower than anticipated performance with a massive 67% drop in weekend #2 with only $11.1 million, under my $16.4M prediction. Its two week total stands at $58 million and it is very unlikely to even reach $100M. The original three summers ago made $218M.

And that’ll do it for now, ladies and gents. Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 3-5

Fireworks and hot dogs may be predictable on July 4th weekend, but 2015’s box office for the holiday is anything but. There are four pictures that all have legitimate shots at being #1 and they include newcomers Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL. You can read my detailed predictions on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/25/terminator-genisys-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/26/magic-mike-xxl-box-office-prediction/

Both face heavy competition from Jurassic World, which has been spent three weeks on its record breaking #1 run and Pixar’s Inside Out, which has itself set records while perched at second for the last two weeks.

As I see it, I believe there will be a photo finish between Terminator, Jurassic, and Inside Out with Magic Mike taking fourth place due to a projected front loaded five day gross when its hardcore female fans may rush to watch it Wednesday and Thursday. Genisys also opens Wednesday.

Ted 2 came in well below expectations this past weekend (more on that below) and looks to place fifth.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Terminator Genisys

Predicted Gross: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $48.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Inside Out

Predicted Gross: $30.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

3. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $28.7 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Magic Mike XXL

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. Ted 2

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (June 26-28)

As mentioned, Jurassic World continued its history making stampede and placed #1 for the third frame in a row with $54.5 million (ahead of my $51.1M estimate). The three week total stands at an amazing $500 million and looks to place third, if not second, on all time domestic earners.

Pixar’s Inside Out maintained its runner-up status with $52.3 million, in line with my $53.4M projection. Its two week total is $185 million and it should pass the $350M mark with relative ease.

Seth MacFarlane’s comedy sequel Ted 2 posted lackluster results that were well below expectations with $33.5 million, far below my $50.8M prediction. This is a far cry from the $54M earned by the original three summers ago.

The family dog drama Max debuted fourth to an OK $12.2 million, under my $13.9M prediction and Melissa McCarthy’s Spy rounded out the top five with $7.9 million – on pace with my $7.6M estimate for a total of $88M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Terminator Genisys Box Office Prediction

31 years after first informing us he’d be back, Arnold Schwarzenegger plays his signature role for the fourth time as Terminator Genisys debuts this Wednesday, hoping to clean up over the July 4th holiday weekend. Jason Clarke, Emilia Clarke, and J.K. Simmons costar with Thor: The Dark World’s Alan Taylor directing. It is a legitimate question to ponder whether this series will continue to lose steam.

This is actually the fifth entry in the three decade old franchise as 2009’s Terminator Salvation underwhelmed with a $42 million opening on its way to a $125 million domestic take. The last pic with Ahnuld was 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines and it also premiered over the Independence Day weekend with a $44 million three day and $72 million five day haul. It ended up earning $150 million overall.

My guess is that this will not match those numbers and Genisys could have a rough time reinvigorating this series. To put it mildly, Schwarzenegger’s post gubernatorial film career has been littered with flops. In fact, his biggest grosser since his screen return that he headlined is Escape Plan at just $25 million total. Obviously Genisys will make more out of the gate than that, but it doesn’t mean it’ll be considered a large success. Reviews so far have been the worst for the franchise as it stands at only 17%. I’ll say it doesn’t manage to do $50 million in its five day rollout and ends up possibly earning less than Salvation when all is said and done.

Terminator Genisys opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $48.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Magic Mike XXL prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/26/magic-mike-xxl-box-office-prediction/

Summer 2015 Movies: The Predicted Century Club

The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.

In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.

Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.

The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.

Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.

2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow. 

That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.

So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four. 

Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.

As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!

Todd’s 15 Most Anticipated 2015 Summer Movies: Nos. 15-11

In less than one month, the Summer 2015 Movie Season will be upon us! That means studios will be bringing out their big wannabe blockbusters with sequels, reboots, animated tales, comic book heroes, and a surprisingly robust group of potentially intriguing comedies.

Therefore, I am bringing you my personal 15 most anticipated summer movies for the year. Let me talk briefly about some pictures that didn’t quite make the cut. I left off animated fare such as Pixar’s Inside Out and Despicable Me spin-off Minions. Same goes for Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. And then there’s a film I figured would make the cut: Terminator: Genisys that marks Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to his iconic role after 12 years. Why? Quite frankly, I wasn’t crazy about the trailer. Don’t get me wrong – I’m still highly curious to watch it.

I will be breaking up my list in three installments and we begin this evening with numbers 15-11. Subsequent posts covering the top ten will arrive Friday and Saturday.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

15. Spy

Release Date: June 5

Originally, I probably wouldn’t have figured Melissa McCarthy’s new comedy would make the cut. That’s until reviews from screenings at South by Southwest came out and they indicate this is the star’s best feature so far. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Feig, director of McCarthy’s Bridesmaids and The Heat is behind the camera. Jude Law, Rose Byrne, and Jason Statham co-star.

14. Masterminds

Release Date: August 14

From the director of Napoleon Dynamite comes this heist comedy with a killer cast: Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, and Jason Sudeikis. The trailer inspires hope.

13. Vacation

Release Date: July 31

Yes, they’re rebooting the Vacation franchise with Ed Helms and Leslie Mann as grown-up Rusty and Audrey and Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo back as Clark and Ellen. Christina Applegate, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlie Day round out the cast. Here’s to hoping this is more like the original and Christmas Vacation than Vegas Vacation. No trailer has been released at press time.

12. Southpaw

Release Date: July 24

Jake Gyllenhall has been on a roll lately choosing his projects, including last year’s terrific Nightcrawler. This sports drama sees him playing a boxer with serious family issues. It also sees him heavily bulked up in a pic that could get awards attention, like 2010’s The Fighter. Antoine Fuqua directs (he made Training Day and The Equalizer) and Rachel McAdams and Forest Whitaker co-star.

11. Fantastic Four

Released Date: August 7

The first two installments of the famed Marvel comic books (the ones with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis) were decent size hits, however critics didn’t approve. This reboot comes from Chronicle director Josh Trank with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, and Michael B. Jordan and it will attempt to begin the franchise anew.

And that’s all for now! Numbers 10-6 coming at you tomorrow…