Tag Archives: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Power Rangers Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping that a wave of 90s nostalgia will propel Power Rangers to powerful grosses when it debuts next weekend. The reported $105 million product is a reboot of the popular kids cartoon that spawned two (not very well-regarded) pics in the mid 1990s.

Franchise creator Haim Saban produces this venture with Dean Israelite directing. A cast of relative unknowns (Dacre Montgomery, Naomi Scott, RJ Cyler, Becky G, Ludi Lin) play our young title characters. More familiar faces including Bryan Cranston, Elizabeth Banks, and the voice of Bill Hader are among the supporting cast.

Rangers is banking on capturing the same audience that responded well to the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles refresh recently. Its 2014 return spawned a much more than expected $65 million opening. Last year’s sequel, Out of the Shadows, didn’t measure up with a $35 million premiere.

My instinct is that Power Rangers could certainly over perform, but it will likely reach the mid 30s that Shadows accomplished. I believe those initial Turtles numbers could be unreachable. The earlier Rangers flicks weren’t huge successes. In 1995, Mighty Morphin Power Rangers made $13 million out of the gate with an eventual $38M overall tally. Its spin-off two years later, Turbo: A Power Rangers Movie, was an outright flop with only $8 million total domestically.

Bottom line: I believe the nostalgia factor will come into play and should be enough to make this is a solid second behind the sophomore weekend of Beauty and the Beast.

Power Rangers opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million

For my Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/15/life-box-office-prediction/

For my CHiPs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/16/chips-box-office-prediction/

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Box Office Prediction

Box office prognosticators such as myself were a little shell shocked two summers ago when Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles made its return to the big screen and posted a $65 million opening weekend. Its eventual domestic haul was $191M. The pizza loving reptiles are back again in Out of the Shadows alongside returnee non-reptile performers Megan Fox, Will Arnett, and William Fichtner. Chris O’Donnell look alike Stephen Amell joins the mix as Casey Jones, as do Tyler Perry and Laura Linney.

The Michael Bay produced franchise may not see much of a drop-off from its predecessor. The well-received 2014 effort (critics weren’t fans, but audiences ate it up) is still fresh in viewers minds. Youngsters who dug the first one and older fans introduced to Raphael, Michelangelo, Leonardo, Raphael, and Donatello in the late 80s and early 90s should bring this sequel to a gross in the low 50s.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows opening weekend prediction: $50.3 million

For my Me Before You prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/me-before-you-box-office-prediction/

For my Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/26/popstar-never-stop-never-stopping-box-office-prediction/

Summer 2015 Movies: The Predicted Century Club

The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.

In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.

Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.

The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.

Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.

2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow. 

That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.

So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four. 

Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.

As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!

Box Office Predictions: September 19-21

Four new titles enter the marketplace this weekend to compete with the current #1 and #2 – No Good Deed and Dolphin Tale 2. They are the YA adaptation The Maze Runner, the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones, star-studded comedy This Is Where I Leave You, and Kevin Smith horror flick Tusk.

**In a change from normal practice, let’s get Tusk out of the way first. Kevin Smith, known most from Clerks fame, has directed this low-budget horror pic. It’s unknown at press time how many screens it will open on, though it’s expected to be relatively low compared to the three other new releases. Without knowing a screen count, it’s difficult to post a detailed prediction post on it, so I didn’t. I will say it opens with $2.3 million, well below having the possibility of being in the top five.

As for the other newbies, you can find my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/the-maze-runner-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/a-walk-among-the-tombstones-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/this-is-where-i-leave-you-box-office-prediction/

I expect the three newcomers to populate the top three positions this weekend and the possibility exists of a battle between Maze Runner and Tombstones. Current #1 No Good Deed should suffer a far bigger decline than Dolphin Tale 2 and the two could duke it out for the four spot.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Maze Runner

Predicted Gross: $26.1 million

2. A Walk Among the Tombstones

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. This Is Where I Leave You

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Dolphin Tale 2

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. No Good Deed

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (September 12-14)

In a bit of a surprise, the Idris Elba/Taraji P. Henson thriller No Good Deed debuted at #1 with a robust $24.2 million, well beyond my meager $13.8M projection. Clearly the marketing campaign worked with 60% of its audience being female. As predicted above, it should drop precipitously in its sophomore frame, but with a low budget, it’s an unqualified hit.

Dolphin Tale 2 had to settle for the #2 spot with $15.8 million, in line with my $16.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $19.1 million opening gross of its predecessor, though it shouldn’t fall too far in weekend #2.

The rest of the top five was made up of summer holdovers that all didn’t drop quite as far as I expected. Guardians of the Galaxy was third with $8.1 million (my prediction: $6.8M), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles fourth with $4.8 million ($3.9M was my estimate), and Let’s Be Cops fifth with $4.3 million (my prediction: $3.4M).

One interesting box office story was the sixth place debut of The Drop, a crime thriller starring Tom Hardy and the late James Gandolfini. It managed an impressive $4.1 million on only 809 screens, giving it the second highest per screen average of the weekend after Deed. This was certainly above the estimates of most and I didn’t even make a prediction on it.

That’s all for now, friends! Until next time.

Box Office Predictions: September 12-14

The month long reign of the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ruling the top two spots at the box office should come to an end this weekend with two new releases: family sequel Dolphin Tale 2 and thriller No Good Deed. You can review my detailed posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/dolphin-tale-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/no-good-deed-box-office-prediction/

I’ll give Dolphin Tale 2 the edge to top the charts, but only because it’s scheduled to open on approximately 1500 more screens than Deed, which still has an outside shot at #1. Holdovers Guardians, Turtles, and Let’s Be Cops should round out the top five in a rather lackluster weekend before heavy hitters such as A Walk Among the Tombstones, The Equalizer, and Gone Girl arrive soon.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Dolphin Tale 2

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. No Good Deed

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

Box Office Results (September 5-7)

In what was the weakest box office frame in 13 years, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy was #1 with $10.3 million, right in line with my $10.9M projection. The superhero megahit has amassed $294 million and should blast past $300M this week.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was second with $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.6M estimate. It’s earned an impressive $174M so far and should top out around $190M.

Sleeper comedy hit Let’s Be Cops was third with my $5.5 million, above my $4.5M projection. Its total stands at $66M.

YA romance If I Stay was fourth as it also made $5.5 million, right in line with my $5.3M prediction and its haul is at an OK $39M.

Pierce Brosnan’s dud The November Man rounded out the top five with $4.3 million in weekend two, once again on pace with my $4.1M estimate. Its two week total is a weak $17M and it might reach $30M total domestically.

Finally, the faith based musical drama The Identical (the weekend’s only newbie) tanked with only $1.5 million for a pathetic 12th place debut, under my generous $3.9M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time.

Box Office Predictions: September 5-7

The first weekend of September is practically assured to be quite a tepid one at the box office as only one (low profile) release is being released, the faith based musical drama The Identical. For my detailed prediction post on it, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/31/the-identical-box-office-prediction/

That leaves summer holdovers to likely populate the top five once again, with superhero teams Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles continuing to hold the top spots. Not much more to say this week as it will be a boring movie weekend before some higher profile fall releases get underway soon.

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. The November Man

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

That would leave newbie The Identical with a predicted seventh place debut, just behind As Above/So Below.

Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)

As expected, the Labor Day weekend was a relatively quiet one as Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first with a four day haul of $22.9 million, just above my $21.1M projection. The Marvel phenomenon and summer 2014’s biggest grosser has amassed $281 million so far and should soon surpass $300M.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was again second with $15.6 million, below my generous $19.3M estimate. The reboot stands at an impressive $166M.

In its sophomore weekend, If I Stay was third with $11.7 million, below my once again generous $17.2M prediction. Its two week total is $32 million and it should finish out with less than $50M.

Fourth place belonged to Let’s Be Cops in its third weekend with $10.3 million, in line with my $11.4M estimate. The comedy has taken in $59M at press time and should reach $70M plus.

Opening in fifth was horror flick As Above/So Below with an unimpressive $10.2 million, just below my $11.8M projection. Below continued the 2014 trend of horror pics underwhelming, but its studio can take solace in that it only cost $5M to make.

The Pierce Brosnan spy film The November Man debuted just behind it with $10.1 million and $11.7 million since its Wednesday debut. It outdid my four day projection of $8.1M but its six day total was right in line with my $11M estimate. Tepid reviews didn’t help it.

Finally, sports drama When the Game Stands Tall was seventh in weekend #2 with $8.1 million, below my $9.8M projection. Its two week total stands at $18M and it’ll peter out at around $35 million at best.

That’s all for now, folks. Until next time!

 

Box Office Predictions: August 29-September 1

The fall movie season officially kicks off this Labor Day weekend with two new entries: the horror flick As Above, So Below and Pierce Brosnan spy thriller The November Man. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/as-above-so-below-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/the-november-man-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting neither of the newbies will add much firepower to the box office. That leaves August’s megahits Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles likely to continue their reign at the top two positions. Keep in mind that my weekend projections this time around are for the four day holiday weekend and that means holdover pics often see an increase in dollars compared to the previous weekend. That holds true with my estimates for Guardians, TMNT, If I Stay, When the Game Stands Tall, and Let’s Be Cops.

And with that – we’ll do Top Seven predictions for the Labor Day frame:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $21.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (representing an increase of 16%)

3. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (representing an increase of 11%)

4. As Above, So Below

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing an increase of 6%)

6. When the Game Stands Tall

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 19%)

7. The November Man

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday projection), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday projection)

Box Office Results (August 22-24)

As the summer movie season drew to a close, there were two big stories: Guardians of the Galaxy became the season’s biggest grosser and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For had one of the worst debuts in recent memory.

Marvel’s Guardians vaulted back to the #1 spot after two weeks behind Ninja Turtles. The blockbuster took in $17.2 million, outshining my $15M estimate. It’s taken in $251 million so far and therefore passed Transformers: Age of Extinction as the King of Summer Movies.

Ninja Turtles slipped to second with $16.7 million, holding up considerably better than my $12.7M prediction. In three weeks, the reboot has amassed $145 million and it should surpass $175M when all is said and done.

The YA pic If I Stay got off to a decent start with $15.6 million – ahead of my $12.1M projection. Many prognosticators had it opening #1, but two teams of venerable superheroes prevented that from happening.

Somewhat surprisingly, Let’s Be Cops only dropped a respectable 39% in its sophomore frame and placed fourth with $10.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t place it in the top five and its two week total stands at $45M. It should reach $75M, which is great considering its meager budget.

The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall earned $8.3 million for a fair fifth place opening, right in range with my $9M projection. With a solid A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up well next weekend.

And this brings us to Sin City: A Dame to Kill For. Let’s get this out of the way: I had it opening #1 with $20.8 million. Ummm…. oops!

Arriving nearly ten years after the original, Dame performed a fantastically bad box office belly flop with only $6.3 million for a pathetic eighth place debut. Simply put, even though the first was generally well-received, its sequel registered barely any audience interest. Dame easily qualifies as one of 2014’s biggest bombs.

And that’s all for now, folks!