34th PGA Awards Nominations Reaction

One day after the Screen Actors Guild and the Director Guild announced their nominees for best in show for 2022, the Producers Guild were up to bat today. The PGA picks 10 nominees for Best Picture and 5 contenders for Animated Film (just like the Academy).

Over the past couple of decades, the PGA’s match rate with the Oscar BP has been impressive. You can probably expect no less than 7 of the PGA players to make it into the Academy’s race. 8 or 9 is even likelier based on history.

The nominees are:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

That means I went 8/10 in my forecast. To me, the biggest surprise is the inclusion of The Whale and not Wakanda.

I didn’t have either of them in my list. Instead I had The Woman King and Women Talking. PGA has shown a willingness to include popcorn fare that the Academy ignores (they nominated Wonder Woman five years back). For those thinking Wakanda is now getting a BP nod, it’s possible. Yet I’d proceed with caution.

The reason The Whale is more of a shock is that its fortunes had seemingly dwindled in recent weeks. It didn’t make Critics Choice or the Globes or AFI or NBR. Darren Aronofsky’s latest is divisive (it’s loved and loathed depending on who you’re reading). While Brendan Fraser’s nomination in Actor is a given, its status in BP seemed unlikely. The chances improved today.

You may notice that PGA’s list is 40% sequels. I don’t believe that will occur on Oscar nom morning. In addition to Panther, Onion is a question mark that has missed other key precursors. Its chances are greater, in my view, than Panther by a slim margin.

As mentioned yesterday in my prediction post, I do feel there’s a “safe 7” for Oscar BP (Avatar, Banshees, Elvis, EEAAO, Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun). They were all nominated at PGA.

The Woman King and Women Talking both took hits. I’ve had the latter clinging to the top 10. That may change when I update my Oscar picks on Monday. All Quiet on the Western Front, meanwhile, seems like the kind of pic PGA would ignore and the Academy might not. That was mentioned in my forecast and held true. This was also not a good day for Babylon, RRR, or Triangle of Sadness

In the animated competition, I went for 4 for 5 (picking The Bad Guys instead of Minions: The Rise of Gru). The correctly called 4 are Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (the frontrunner), Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and Turning Red.

I’ll have thoughts on who wins up on the blog shortly before the February 25th ceremony!

All Quiet Makes Noise at the BAFTA Shortlists

Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.

It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).

Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.

Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.

Best Film

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Living

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Blue Jean

Brian and Charles

Emily

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Living

The Lost King

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

See How They Run

The Swimmers

The Wonder

Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun

Blue Jean

Donna

Electric Malady

Emily

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Nothing Compares

Rebellion

See How They Run

Wayfinder

This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Bardo

Close

Corsage

Decision to Leave

EO

Holy Spider

The Quiet Girl

RRR

While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.

Documentary

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

A Bunch of Amateurs

Fire of Love

The Ghost of Richard Harris

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song

Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues

McEnroe

Moonage Daydream

Navalny

Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.

Animated Film

The Amazing Maurice

The Bad Guys

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Lightyear

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.

Director

Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Chinonye Chukwu, Till

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alice Diop, Saint Omer

Sara Dosa, Fire of Love

Todd Field, Tár

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Marie Kreutzer, Corsage

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King

Maria Schrader, She Said

Charlotte Wells, Aftersun

BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.

Leading Actress

Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.

Leading Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Daniel Kaluuya, Nope

Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front

Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

Lashana Lynch, The Woman King

Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Aimee Lou Wood, Living

Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Tom Hanks, Elvis

Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brad Pitt, Babylon

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light

Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.

Original Screenplay

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

The Menu

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Living

The Quiet Girl

She Said

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Women Talking

The Wonder

This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?

***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).

Casting

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Living

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Athena

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Corsage

Elvis

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Editing

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Moonage Daydream

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Make Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Blonde

Elvis

Emancipation

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

The Whale

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tár

Women Talking

The Wonder

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Jurassic World: Dominion

Top Gun: Maverick

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Batman

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tár

Thirteen Lives

Top Gun: Maverick

Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!

2022: The Year of Michelle Yeoh

My Year Of posts focusing on a half dozen performers who had us feeling ’22 continues with our second icon who turned the big 6-0 this year. The first was Tom Cruise and if you missed that post, you can find it here:

The next sexagenarian is Michelle Yeoh. For the past three decades, U.S. audiences have seen the Malaysian legend fighting alongside Jackie Chan in the Supercop pics, James Bond in Tomorrow Never Dies, and Chow Yun-fat in Ang Lee’s acclaimed Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. In recent years, she probably came close to a Supporting Actress nomination as the overbearing mother in Crazy Rich Asians. Last year, she joined the MCU in Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.

There were plenty of projects in 2022. She lent her voice to Minions: The Rise of Gru and Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank. A small role popped up in Netflix’s YA fantasy The School for Good and Evil. None of those projects are why Yeoh made this cut.

Everything Everywhere All at Once is. The sophomore effort of the Daniels (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) is the multi-genre rumination on life that casts Yeoh as frazzled laundromat owner Evelyn. She also (due to a seemingly infinite multiverse) plays the role in many other iterations including a movie star, a woman with hot dogs for fingers, and a rock. It’s a one-of-a-kind picture with the role of a lifetime for its lead.

An Oscar nomination is a near certainty and a win is quite possible. The box office was impressive with $70 million domestically against a considerably smaller budget. Costars Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu, and Jamie Lee Curtis could all be headed for their own awards nods. I currently have Everything listed in 1st to take Best Picture.

A busy 2023 and beyond awaits Yeoh. More voice work is on deck with Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and Kenneth Branagh has put her in the ensemble of his third Poirot mystery A Haunting in Venice. Her Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu will be collaborating with her again on the two planned Wicked films (slated for 2024 and 2025). James Cameron has her showing up (apparently in human form) in the third and fourth Avatar pics.

Yeoh’s part in Everything was originally considered for her old costar Jackie Chan. That’s hard to picture now given her fantastic portrayal. She easily earns a spot in this series. My Year Of posts will continue with an actor who might’ve lost a friend in his Oscar contender, but gained plenty of praise for his body work throughout the year.

2022 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.

While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.

That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.

Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)

12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)

7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)

10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Smith, Emancipation

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)

10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Menu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (+1)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (E)

9. Strange World (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)

7. EO (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joyland (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Quiet Girl

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. Descendant (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sr. (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Retrograde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Last Flight Home

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emancipation

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elvis (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. X (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Amsterdam (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

She Said

White Noise

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Stand Up” from Till

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)

8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:

11 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

10 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

7 Nominations

Babylon, Women Talking

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

The Whale

4 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár

2 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: November 20th Edition

Two weeks have passed since my previous Oscar predictions and the biggest news is that there’s a new #1 in Best Picture. For quite some time, I’ve had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans in first position. It would still make plenty of sense to keep it there. However, I’ve had a nagging feeling that this frontrunner is vulnerable. And my gut (at the moment) tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once is a major threat for the victory. Stephanie Hsu is back in Supporting Actress for Everything over Carey Mulligan (She Said).

This isn’t the only development in the last 14 days. Damien Chazelle’s eagerly awaited Babylon held screenings. The buzz is wildly mixed, but I still believe it should perform well with nominations.

Another big change in BP is that Avatar: The Way of Water has surfaced in the top 10 (where it’s yet to place before). She Said, which had a very disappointing box office showing this weekend, dips to 11th.

There are changes in Best Actor. For the first time, I’m elevating Tom Cruise to the top five in Best Actor. He does so at the expense of Hugh Jackman in The Son, whose wide release was just delayed to January. That indicates to me that Sony Pictures Classics is losing faith in the pic (which received plenty of negative reviews). They may focus the bulk of their attention on Bill Nighy in Living.

In Supporting Actor, I’ve put Paul Dano back in for The Fabelmans. That means Spielberg’s movie would have the double supporting nominees instead of The Banshees of Inisherin (Barry Keoghan has moved to sixth).

There’s modifications in Animated Feature with Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and My Father’s Dragon entering the quintet and Wendell and Wild and Strange World falling out. Holy Spider is back in International Feature Film to the detriment of Bardo. In Documentary Feature, Fire of Love returns with Last Flight Home out.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-2)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jean Smart, Babylon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: 8) (E)

9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Menu (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Broker

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bones and All (PR: 7) (E)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 6) (+3)

4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Strange World (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Lightyear (PR: 9) (E)

10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. EO (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Klondike

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Decision to Leave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)

8. X (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Three Thousand Years of Longing

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-4)

8. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Bardo

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)

7. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (E)

9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Babylon (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Fabelmans

9 Nominations

Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking

6 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Whale

4 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár

3 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: November 6th Edition

Over the past week, I posted deep dives into 6 major categories: Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, you can access them right there:

The numbers for those competitions are reflected below (therefore you won’t see Previous Rankings for them). For every other race, these are projections updated for the first time since October 23rd.

There’s less than two months left in the calendar year! We’re entering crunch time and here’s my state of the races as we sprint to the finish…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Babylon

4. Women Talking

5. The Banshees of Inisherin

6. Top Gun: Maverick

7. Tár

8. The Whale

9. Triangle of Sadness

10. She Said

Other Possibilities:

11. All Quiet on the Western Front

12. Decision to Leave

13. Avatar: The Way of Water

14. Elvis

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

5. Todd Field, Tár

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

9. Adam Driver, White Noise

10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Claire Foy, Women Talking

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

8. Nina Hoss, Tár

9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. Jean Smart, Babylon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon

8. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Broker (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Armageddon Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bones & All (PR: 7) (E)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Son

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (E)

4. Strange World (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Klondike (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)

8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 6) (-2)

9. EO (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Alcarras (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Last Flight Home (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aftershock

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Woman King (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. X (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

10. The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“On My Way” from Marry Me

“At the Automat” from The Automat

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. RRR (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (-3)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Women Talking

7 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

6 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

4 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, She Said

2 Nominations

Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Last Flight Home, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Strange World, Till, The Woman King, Wendell and Wild

2022 Oscar Predictions: October 23rd Edition

Elvis has left the top ten predicted nominees in my Best Picture rankings and it’s Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave back in the mix. The good news continues for Leave as it returns to #1 in International Feature Film over its close competitor All Quiet on the Western Front.

While the directing and lead acting derbies remain the same, there are changes in both supporting races. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is back in Supporting Actress over Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness). Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) falls out of the Supporting Actor quintet with Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) moving up.

Another picture increasing its nomination count is Living. I already had Bill Nighy in the Best Actor five and I’m now putting it in Adapted Screenplay while removing White Noise. Living also makes its debut in Costume Design for a total of three nods.

Later this week, I’ll have State of the Race detailed posts on the six major competitions (Picture, Director, the 4 acting contests).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Tár (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)

12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)

13. Elvis (PR: 9) (-3)

14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Till

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Strange World (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alcarras (PR: 8) (E)

9. Klondike (PR: 6) (-3)

10. EO (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1 . All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Aftershock (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emancipation

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Corsage (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blonde

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-2)

10. X (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Blonde

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 9) (E)

10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Love Is Not Love” from Bros

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Fabelmans

Bardo

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (-1)

And that equates to these pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

7 Nominations

Women Talking

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

5 Nominations

Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

4 Nominations

Tár

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living

2 Nominations

Bardo, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing

2022 Oscar Predictions: October 16th Edition

On the bright side for Netflix, I have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio at #1 in Animated Feature where it’s been perched all along. That would mean the streamer could nab its first victory ever in that race.

Now the bad news as my current Best Picture nominees leaves Netflix on the cutting room floor. In 2018, Roma was the first hopeful in the big dance. It was expected to win, but lost to Green Book. 2019 brought double nominees with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Same in 2020 with Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7. And there were two contenders again last year in Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog (a frontrunner until CODA fever emerged).

I had All Quiet on the Western Front in the mix 11 days ago. Yet I’ve had a nagging feeling that another blockbuster not named Top Gun: Maverick will get in. So for the first time, Elvis is in the top ten. That moneymaker spot could also be filled with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (from Netflix), Avatar: The Way of Water, or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Think could also be called the “Second Sequel” slot, I suppose.

Don’t be surprised if Netflix eventually gets back in. Quiet, the aforementioned Onion, Bardo, and Pinocchio are all viable (maybe even White Noise). For now, my BP hopefuls would mean a disappointing nomination morning for the streamer.

She Said received mostly positive notices when it was unveiled Thursday at the New York Film Festival. It could absolutely be a BP contender, but I’m got it just on the outside and feel more comfortable forecasting it as a lone screenplay nominee (I don’t love the current 76% RT meter for it). You’ll note I don’t have any of the cast in my top tens. Perhaps the eventual announcement of category placements could change that.

In other developments:

    • I’ve decided to move Babylon‘s Margot Robbie back in Best Actress instead of supporting (can we please get that placement announcement??). It means she’s back in and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) is out.
    • Bill Nighy’s work in Living returns to Actor five with Diego Calva (Babylon) sliding into sixth position.
    • With Robbie returning to lead, Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is elevated to fifth in Supporting Actress.
    • My Supporting Actor dual nominee projections of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin shifts to Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans. That means Hirsch rises while Keoghan falls.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Rank: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elvis (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (-1)

12. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Till

The Woman King 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (E)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Smith, Emancipation 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Babylon (moved to Best Actress)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tar (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Broker 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 6) (E)

7. Till (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Klondike (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Alcarras (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Corsage (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Descendant (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Last Flight Home (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Aftershock (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sr. 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Costume Design 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Corsage (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Woman King (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Living (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Best Film Editing 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tar (PR: 9) (+2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Decision to Leave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)

8. (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tar (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Bardo (PR: 10) (+2)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Top Gun: Maverick 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Love Is Not Love” from Bros (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Thirteen Lives

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (+1)

8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nope 

That equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Women Talking

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis

5 Nominations

Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, Triangle of Sadness 

2 Nominations

The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Till, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, White Noise

2022 Oscar Predictions: October 5th Edition

In the past week, the biggest Oscar news was the announcement that Emancipation with Will Smith will debut in December and therefore be eligible for consideration. You can read my thoughts on that here:

Emancipation Enters the Oscar Race

As you’ll see below, Emancipation doesn’t make much of an impact anywhere in my estimates. However, I am putting Will Smith in at 10th for Best Actor. Part of that is the fairly weak field for lead actor (especially compared to Actress). Do I think Smith will get a nod? No, but it’s not entirely out of the question if his performance is critically hailed.

My BP lineup has one change with Triangle of Sadness back in the top ten over Decision to Leave. 

In other developments:

    • Todd Field (Tar) returns to the directorial quintet and that removes Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front.
    • While the Best Actress field remains the same, Danielle Deadwyler’s work in Till rises to 2nd place after rave notices at the New York Film Festival.
    • Brad Pitt (Babylon), who’s been subject to some bad press this week, falls out of my Supporting Actor five in favor of Ben Whishaw for Women Talking. 
    • Babylon has also been taken out of my Original Screenplay selections with Tar being elevated.
    • There’s a new #1 in Documentary Feature with Descendant nabbing the slot over All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Tar (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+2)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Elvis (PR: 13) (E)

14. Till (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Woman King (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Aftersun 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Zoe Kazan, She Said

Sadie Sink, The Whale

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tar (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Broker (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Bros

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)

5. She Said (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Till (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Son 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)

7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (E)

7. Argetina, 1985 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Klondike (PR: 8) (E)

9. Alcarras (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

EO

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Descendant (PR: 3) (+2)

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Navalny (PR: 2) (-1)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)

8. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)

7. Corsage (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Living (PR: 9) (E)

10. Amsterdam (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tar (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

8. (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Three Thousand Years of Longing 

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tar (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 9) (+5)

5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Vegas” from Elvis 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nope (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fabelmans

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. RRR (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front 

And that equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans 

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking 

5 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale 

4 Nominations

Tar

3 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light

2 Nominations

Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Till, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: September 28th Edition

For the time being at least, I’m settling on Edward Berger’s antiwar epic All Quiet on the Western Front as Netflix’s strongest contender. It moves into my predicted BP hopefuls for the first time and that takes out Triangle of Sadness. Additionally, Berger is in the quintet for Director and it’s Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) that drops. The Quiet love shows up in International Feature Film where it moves to first place with Leave sliding to runner-up status.

We also have a category placement change to discuss. While nothing has been announced, it makes a lot of sense for Babylon‘s Margot Robbie to move to Supporting Actress after Michelle Williams (rather inexplicably) elevated to Best Actress for The Fabelmans. Robbie moves there (hopefully Paramount lets us know soon) so Danielle Deadwyler is back in Best Actress. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is now on the outside looking in for supporting.

There’s a change in Actor as I’m finally putting Diego Calva (Babylon) in over Bill Nighy (Living). In Original Screenplay, The Fabelmans is now #1 over Everything. 

The New York Film Festival starts this weekend. By the time of my next update, we will know what the real prospects are for Till with She Said soon to follow.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tar (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Whale (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Elvis (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Empire of Light (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

She Said

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)

10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Darren Aronofsky, The Whale 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Babylon – moved to Supporting Actress

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (E)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Pope, The Inspection 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Best Actress

4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Vanessa Kirby, The Son

Jean Smart, Babylon 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Judd Hirsch, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bros (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Broker (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Till (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Living (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Son (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Strange World (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)

9. EO (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alcarras (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Eight Mountains 

Plan 75

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Navalny (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Descendant (PR: 2) (-1)

4. All That Breathes (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 6) (E)

7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)

9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Black Ice

Riotsville, U.S.A.

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tar

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Corsage (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Three Thousand Years of Longing 

Don’t Worry Darling 

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tar (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Tar (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities: 

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Batman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Top Gun: Maverick 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)

4. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Vegas” from Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys

“Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+1)

8. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Batman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bardo 

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nope (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Nope (PR: 8) (+1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (-3)

10. RRR (PR: 9) (-1)

And that equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Women Talking 

5 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

4 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water

3 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Tar

2 Nominations 

Decision to Leave, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, The Batman, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Marry Me, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strangle World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King