At the 91st Academy Awards, Disney/Pixar (a frequent winner in the Best Animated Feature derby at the Oscars) had Incredibles 2 in contention. Yet it came up short to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. At last year’s ceremony, the studio’s Turning Red was never much of a threat to win and their summer release Lightyear received mixed reactions and didn’t make the cut. Similar elements could be in play for the 96th Oscars and Pixar’s 27th picture Elemental.
Out stateside on June 16, the computer-animated dramedy closed out the Cannes Film Festival. Buzz from France is fairly troubling. The Rotten Tomatoes meter, based on a handful of reviews, is 60%. Peter Sohn directs. He’s best known for 2015’s The Good Dinosaur, which underperformed at the box office and failed to register with the Academy. Voiceover artists include Leah Lewis, Mamoudou Athie, Ronnie del Carmen, Shila Ommi, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Catherine O’Hara, Joe Pera, and Matt Yang King.
This is Pixar’s one at bat for 2023 and prospects look iffy. We may have a frontrunner emerging with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse opening this weekend. Look for my Oscar Predictions post on it shortly. Even if Elemental manages to make the quintet vying for gold, the chances of a victory look non-existent. If it doesn’t catch on at the box office like Lightyear (and that’s certainly possible), it could get left out altogether. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.
All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.
Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:
The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.
On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.
In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.
You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)
12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)
4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)
5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Janes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nomnees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale
4 Nominations
Babylon, Tár
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nominations
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.
It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).
Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.
Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.
Best Film
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Blue Jean
Brian and Charles
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Living
The Lost King
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder
Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun
Blue Jean
Donna
Electric Malady
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Nothing Compares
Rebellion
See How They Run
Wayfinder
This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Close
Corsage
Decision to Leave
EO
Holy Spider
The Quiet Girl
RRR
While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.
Documentary
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A Bunch of Amateurs
Fire of Love
The Ghost of Richard Harris
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues
McEnroe
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.
Animated Film
The Amazing Maurice
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Lightyear
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.
Director
Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Chinonye Chukwu, Till
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alice Diop, Saint Omer
Sara Dosa, Fire of Love
Todd Field, Tár
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Marie Kreutzer, Corsage
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
Maria Schrader, She Said
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.
Leading Actress
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.
Leading Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Lashana Lynch, The Woman King
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Aimee Lou Wood, Living
Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.
Original Screenplay
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
The Menu
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
The Wonder
This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?
***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).
Casting
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Athena
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Editing
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Make Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Emancipation
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
The Whale
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Women Talking
The Wonder
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Jurassic World: Dominion
Top Gun: Maverick
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!
My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.
While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.
In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.
While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.
In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.
We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Diego Calva, Babylon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)
4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)
7. EO (PR: 7) (E)
8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)
3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Babylon
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
My last Oscar Predictions for this calendar year comes with no changes in Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, or the screenplay competitions. Yet not all is quiet. I’m finally giving Netflix a BP entrant, but it’s not Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (though I considered it). All Quiet on the Western Front is in the 10 and that knocks out Triangle of Sadness.
Let’s talk Babylon. I came very close to dropping it from my BP list after its dismal box office performance and a C+ Cinemascore grade. It’s clinging to the race in 10th. I almost replaced it with The Whale (which has also received plenty of mixed reaction). I have a gut feeling that one of them still makes the cut and I’m leaning toward the former at the moment.
In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy’s work in Women Talking is out in favor of costar Jessie Buckley. That would mark her second nomination in as many years.
There’s new #1s in International Feature Film with All Quiet displacing Decision to Leave and Documentary Feature with Navalny leaping over All That Breathes.
And, of course, the shortlists released Wednesday are reflected in various categories below. I’ll have my first estimates in calendar year 2023 up next weekend as we inch closer to nomination morning!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Tár (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Babylon (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Whale (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (E)
13. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-3)
14. RRR (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: ) (-2)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (E)
9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Menu (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elvis
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. She Said (PR: 2) (E)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)
4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Inu-Oh (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Sea Beast
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1 . All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. EO (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joyland (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Klondike
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Navalny (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 1) (-1)
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Descendant (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Janes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bad Axe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Good Night Oppy
Sr.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elvis (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Woman King
X
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
The Batman
White Noise
Tár
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Empire of Light
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Moonage Daydream (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
RRR
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Nope (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
RRR
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Good Night Oppy
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nods:
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Elvis,Everything Everywhere All at Once
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Women Talking
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, The Whale
2 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Navalny, She Said, My Father’s Dragon, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
It has been two weeks since I updated my Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired in those 14 days. We’ve had the National Board of Review and American Film Institute release their best of lists while the Golden Globes and Critics Choice voters unveiled their nominees.
There is a change in BP in the 10th spot. Triangle of Sadness is back in as I’ve taken out The Whale. The bad news for that pic continues as I’ve demoted Brendan Fraser from 1st to 3rd in Actor. Make no mistake – I do believe he can still win. However, the last Best Actor victor whose movie wasn’t nominated was 13 years ago with Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart. That stat puts Austin Butler and Colin Farrell in the 1-2 spots as I do have their flicks in BP.
The various precursors have caused major movement in the wildly unpredictable Supporting Actress field. Claire Foy (Women Talking) missed the Globes and Critics Choice. She drops from 1st to 4th while Kerry Condon (who made both precursors) is now in 1st. Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are in the quintet with Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Hong Chau (The Whale again) falling out.
While Director and Actress have the same five, there’s a shift in Supporting Actor as Judd Hirsch joins his Fabelmans costar Paul Dano with Women Talking‘s Ben Whishaw on the outside looking in.
I would also note that RRR has gone from unranked status to 11th (knocking right on the door for BP).
We also have new #1’s in Documentary, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score. Scroll below to track all the movement!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tár (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Elvis (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Whale (PR: 8) (-5)
14. She Said (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Decision to Leave
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Nina Hoss, Tár
Keke Palmer, Nope
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. She Said (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bones and All
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 6) (+2)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Strange World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 4) (-3)
8. EO (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alcarras
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Navalany (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (+2)
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Descendant (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sr. (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Retrograde (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 1) (-2)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Living (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elvis (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. X (PR: -1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Batman (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Living
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+1)
10. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. RRR (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies hitting these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Elvis
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
The Batman, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, RRR
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.
While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.
That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.
Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)
10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Bones and All
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Menu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (+1)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (E)
9. Strange World (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)
7. EO (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joyland (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Quiet Girl
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. Descendant (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sr. (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Retrograde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Last Flight Home
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emancipation
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Living (PR: 7) (E)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elvis (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 4) (-3)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. X (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Amsterdam (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
She Said
White Noise
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Stand Up” from Till
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King
After a historically weak Thanksgiving frame that left moviegoers hungry for other options, the first weekend of December should be rather quiet at multiplexes as well. The lone wide release is Violent Night with David Harbour as a gun toting Santa. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Night, even though I have it falling under $10 million, should slide into the runner-up position behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The MCU sequel looks to four-peat and should have no trouble doing so. A low to mid 50s drop would put it over $20 million. It’s likely to be #1 for five weekends until Avatar: The Way of Water arrives on December 16th.
After a disastrous opening (more on that below), Strange World should fall to third. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, the Disney animated flop could experience a plummet in the mid to high 50s. Who knows? Maybe even higher.
The four and five spots could be close between the second and third frames of Devotion and The Menu. Both should see dips in the mid 40s.
Here’s how I see the top 5 looking:
1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
2. Violent Night
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
3. Strange World
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
4. Devotion
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
5. The Menu
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)
The Turkey Day holiday didn’t bring in the masses as the weekend fell under $100 million. That’s despite plenty of new releases for crowds to chew on.
Strangely enough, the biggest winner belonged to a streamer. Netflix doesn’t officially report numbers. They put Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, the acclaimed sequel to 2019’s blockbuster, on just under 700 screens. Word is out that it did approximately $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $13.3 million since the Wednesday start. That per theater average of over $13k is easily the best of the bunch. Onion is scheduled to leave its venues tomorrow before it hits Netflix on December 23rd.
Now back to the movies that do report official tallies. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever easily stayed atop the charts with $45.5 million, besting my $37.9 million prediction in weekend #3. The 17-day total is $367 million.
The story of the holiday was the dismal Strange World performance. The Mouse Factory had a disappointing result over the summer with Lightyear. This made it look like a phenomenon. World took in an embarrassing $12.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.8 million in the five-day. I said it would manage $19.3 million and $26.7 million, respectively. Simply put, Disney animated efforts aren’t supposed to do those anemic figures.
I suppose technically Glass Onion was third, so the war saga Devotion was fourth. Despite mostly decent reviews, it was a flop considering the reported $90 million budget. The Friday to Sunday take was $5.9 million with $9 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. I went higher with $7.2 million and $10.7 million.
The Menu rounded out the top five at $5.4 million (I said $6.4 million) to bring the two-week gross to $18 million.
Black Adam was sixth with $3.2 million, on target with my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $162 million.
Steven Spielberg’s awards hopeful The Fabelmans was on 638 screens and was seventh with $2.2 million ($3.1 million for the five-day). That’s under my guesstimates of $2.8 million and $4.1 million. While that’s easily the second best average of the newbies (after Onion), it’s still not too impressive. It will hope to develop legs during awards season.
The cannibalistic romance Bones and All wasn’t a recipe for success with an 8th place showing. The $2.2 million and $3.6 million three and five day earnings couldn’t match my $3.5 and $5.3 million projections.
Ticket to Paradise was ninth with $1.8 million (I went with $2.3 million) as the rom com is up to $65 million.
Fathom Event The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 was 10th as it dove 81% to $1.5 million. I was more giving at $2.4 million. In ten days, it’s made $13 million.
Finally, She Said was 11th after its poor premiere last weekend. With $1.1 million (I said $1.6 million), it’s at a lowly $4 million.
If you’d told me in the spring that Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was better suited for an Animated Feature Oscar nomination than Disney’s Lightyear or Strange World, I might’ve questioned your awards prognosticating abilities. With its embargo lifted prior to the December 21st theatrical bow, this appears to be the case.
The DreamWorks Animation sequel is being praised as equal to or better than the 2011 predecessor. You may remember that it’s originally a spin-off from the massive Shrek franchise. Joel Crawford (who last made The Croods: A New Age) directs as Antonio Banderas and Salma Hayek return to voice the title kitty and his love interest. Other performers behind the mic include Harvey Guillén, Florence Pugh, Olivia Colman, Ray Winstone, John Mulaney, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Early reviews have this at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that’s beyond the 86% that the first Boots earned (we are still at under 10 write-ups so it could come down). The aforementioned Shrek from 2001 is actually the first movie to win the Academy’s animated prize. In 2004, Shrek 2 was nominated but lost to Disney’s The Incredibles. The third and fourth tales of the jolly green monster didn’t make the cut. However, Puss in Boots was among 2011’s quintet. Rango took the gold.
This is a strange year in the Animated Feature race. Of Disney’s trio of hopefuls, only Turning Red appears safe for inclusion. The frontrunner is Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from Netflix. The steamer’s Wendell and Wild and My Father’s Dragon could also get in. We have A24’s Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and The Bad Guys (also from DreamWorks). I haven’t had Puss in Boots: The Last Wish in the top 10 of possibilities. After seeing the initial reaction, it definitely will make that jump. When I update my projections on Thursday, it could even enter the high five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Two weeks have passed since my previous Oscar predictions and the biggest news is that there’s a new #1 in Best Picture. For quite some time, I’ve had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans in first position. It would still make plenty of sense to keep it there. However, I’ve had a nagging feeling that this frontrunner is vulnerable. And my gut (at the moment) tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once is a major threat for the victory. Stephanie Hsu is back in Supporting Actress for Everything over Carey Mulligan (She Said).
This isn’t the only development in the last 14 days. Damien Chazelle’s eagerly awaited Babylon held screenings. The buzz is wildly mixed, but I still believe it should perform well with nominations.
Another big change in BP is that Avatar: The Way of Water has surfaced in the top 10 (where it’s yet to place before). She Said, which had a very disappointing box office showing this weekend, dips to 11th.
There are changes in Best Actor. For the first time, I’m elevating Tom Cruise to the top five in Best Actor. He does so at the expense of Hugh Jackman in The Son, whose wide release was just delayed to January. That indicates to me that Sony Pictures Classics is losing faith in the pic (which received plenty of negative reviews). They may focus the bulk of their attention on Bill Nighy in Living.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve put Paul Dano back in for The Fabelmans. That means Spielberg’s movie would have the double supporting nominees instead of The Banshees of Inisherin (Barry Keoghan has moved to sixth).
There’s modifications in Animated Feature with Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and My Father’s Dragon entering the quintet and Wendell and Wild and Strange World falling out. Holy Spider is back in International Feature Film to the detriment of Bardo. In Documentary Feature, Fire of Love returns with Last Flight Home out.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-2)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones and All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 6) (+3)
4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Strange World (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lightyear (PR: 9) (E)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. EO (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Klondike
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Thousand Years of Longing
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-4)
8. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Bardo
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (E)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Babylon (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
9 Nominations
Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, The Woman King
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