Masters of the Universe hopes to have the power of box office potency when it debuts this weekend. As I wrote in my financial prediction post, that could be a challenge. This is the second big screen treatment for the animated series and toy line behind 1987’s dud with Dolph Lundgren as He-Man. Nicholas Galitzine takes over the role almost four decades later with Jared Leto as Skeletor. The supporting cast includes Camila Mendes, Alison Brie, James Purefoy, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Kristin Wiig (providing voiceover work), Morena Baccarin, and Idris Elba. Travis Knight, no stranger to adapting 80s material with Bumblebee, directs.
Several critics are being kind and calling it entertaining summer fluff. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 74%. The 53 Metacritic is more indicative of some negative critical reaction as well. The mid 80s Masters actually received a Razzie nomination in Supporting Actor for Billy Barty. The new Masters probably won’t show up there. With Visual Effects as the only remote possibility, I can’t imagine it showing up at the Academy Awards either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (06/03): A day after posting my top 5 predictions, we are making it a top 6. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act wasn’t really on my radar screen. However, the combination of episodes for the adult web animated series opens Thursday and is expected to make some noise. My $13.1 million Friday to Sunday guesstimate gives it the 5 spot, knocking The Mandalorian to sixth.
While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.
The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.
Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?
After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $47.5 million
2. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. Masters of the Universe
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
4. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
5. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
6. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $11 million
Box Office Results (May 29-31)
Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.
Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.
A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.
Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.
Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.
Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.
Bringing IP to the screen that’s been dormant for nearly 40 years, Masters of the Universe hopes to kickstart a new franchise when it debuts June 5th. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon franchise that began in the early 80s, Travis Knight (Bumblebee) directs with Nicholas Galitzine as hero Adam/He-Man and Jared Leto as the villainous Skeletor. The supporting cast includes Camila Mendes, Alison Brie, James Purefoy, Morena Baccarin, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, and Idris Elba. Kristin Wiig provides voiceover work.
While the film has been in development for many years, you have to go back to 1987 to find the first (and last) time these characters appeared in theaters. That was with Dolph Lundgren as He-Man, Frank Langella as Skeletor, and Courteney Cox in the middle of the action. It was a critical and financial dud and the new Masters hopes to avoid the same fate.
There are challenges. First and foremost, younger viewers may not be as familiar with the source material. Older viewers who did watch the animated series decades ago might not be clamoring for the update. The studio is banking on parents and their kids turning out.
Knight exceeded expectations with Bumblebee and Amazon MGM looks for buzz to increase with his latest. I’m still skeptical this meets its somewhat meager expectations in the mid 30s. I’m taking the under for a rocky beginning.
Masters of the Universe opening weekend prediction: $29.8 million
It’s been a rough cinematic 2023 for DC Studios with flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. Over this Christmas weekend, early numbers indicate that their latest Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may be another entry that opens below expectations. Jason Wan returns to direct his sequel to the 2018 blockbuster with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Costars include Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Randall Park, Dolph Lundgren, Temuera Morrison, Martin Short (!), and Nicole Kidman.
The review embargo lifted on Thursday – the day of its unveiling in multiplexes. That’s usually not a good sign and that proved true with an underwater Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36%. Its predecessor managed 65%.
The 2018 original came up empty-handed in the awards space and didn’t make the 10 picture shortlist for Visual Effects. This sequel popped up on the first 20 contenders for VE. However, when the whittled down list of 10 were revealed Thursday, Lost was nowhere to be found. The fourth DCU offering of the year will share the same number of Academy nods as the first three: none. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Over nine years have passed since the seasoned action stars of The Expendables franchise have been onscreen. That changes on September 22nd with the rather strangely titled Expend4bles. It is the fourth entry of the series that’s seen diminishing returns with each release. Scott Waugh directs and cast members reprising their roles are Jason Statham, Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren, and Randy Couture. New players to the mix include Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson, Megan Fox, Tony Jaa, Iko Uwais, Jacob Scipio, Levy Tran, and Andy Garcia.
In 2010, the original feature exceeded expectations with a nearly $35 million opening weekend and $103 million overall domestic tally. Two years later, part 2 ebbed slightly with a $28 million start and $85 million total. By 2014, audiences were growing weary and it didn’t help that part 3 had a PG-13 rating. The Expendables 3 made just over $15 million in its premiere and only $39 million when all was said and done.
It’s a little surprising that the franchise is coming back at all. The R rating from the first two is back, but the grosses should still be rocky. Expend4bles may be lucky to make what its predecessor did out of the gate. I think it will probably fall short.
Expend4bles opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
1989 was unquestionably the Summer of the Bat as Tim Burton’s take on the Caped Crusader broke records. For 1992, it’s a bit more murky but we could call it The Summer of the Cat based on the sequel being the season’s biggest blockbuster.
As I have every season on the blog, I’m recounting the top 10 hits as well as some notable pics and failures from the summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. For 1992, it was a time of no crying in baseball, a Best Picture winner being discovered, and audiences refusing a biopic about a discoverer of America.
We begin with the moneymakers from #10 on up before moving to additional hits, misses, and those somewhere in between.
10. Housesitter
Domestic Gross: $58 million
While not the blockbuster he’d had just six months prior with Father of the Bride, Steve Martin had a midsize performer with this rom com costarring Goldie Hawn.
9. Honey, I Blew Up the Kid
Domestic Gross: $58 million
The return of Rick Moranis and plenty of special effects had shrunken grosses compared to the predecessor. The $58 million tally is less than half of what Honey, I Shrunk the Kids made. Nevertheless a direct to video sequel and TV series followed.
8. Far and Away
Domestic Gross: $58 million
Tom Cruise is ruling summer 2022 with Top Gun: Maverick. It was a different story 30 years ago with this rare misfire. Ron Howard directed the epic Western costarring Tom’s ex Nicole Kidman. The domestic take was less than the reported $60 million budget. Cruise would quickly get back in the good graces of moviegoers later in 1992 with A Few Good Men.
7. Boomerang
Domestic Gross: $70 million
While not approaching the earnings of his largest hits, Eddie Murphy’s first foray into romantic leading man territory did decent business. A string of flops would follow before a plus sized comeback four years later in The Nutty Professor.
6. Patriot Games
Domestic Gross: $83 million
Harrison Ford stepped into the role of Jack Ryan after Alec Baldwin (who played the role in The Hunt for Red October) didn’t return. The result didn’t quite reach the financial or critical levels of its predecessor, but it easily made enough to warrant Clear and Present Danger two summers later.
5. Unforgiven
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Clint Eastwood’s tale of an aging cowboy out for revenge took the August box office by storm and eventually was an awards favorite – winning Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor for the villainous Gene Hackman. Unforgiven is the rare BP winner to release in the summer season and kickstarted an impressive second act for the legendary filmmaker.
4. A League of Their Own
Domestic Gross: $107 million
Penny Marshall’s World War II era baseball comedy was celebrated for its interplay between players like Geena Davis, Madonna, and Rosie O’Donnell in addition to one of cinema’s longest urination sequences from Tom Hanks.
3. Sister Act
Domestic Gross: $139 million
Coming on the heels of her Ghost Oscar, Whoopi Goldberg hit the jackpot with this fish out of water pic putting the comedienne in a convent. A less regarded sequel would follow in December 1993 as well as a Broadway musical.
2. Lethal Weapon 3
Domestic Gross: $144 million
Mel Gibson and Danny Glover’s third go-round in their buddy cop franchise didn’t generate the reviews of its two predecessors, but it had no trouble raking in the bucks. Rene Russo joined the party this time as Gibson’s love interest and fellow officer. Part 4 would come six years later and a fifth is in development right now.
1. Batman Returns
Domestic Gross: $162 million
Breathlessly anticipated and then received with mixed reaction due to its dark tone, Batman Returns is now seen by many as an improvement over the 1989 original. One thing that’s generally agreed upon is Michelle Pfeiffer nailing the role of Catwoman. This would be Burton’s last time helming the series with Joel Schumacher taking the franchise in a far more cartoonish direction for 1995’s Batman Forever.
And now for some other noteworthy selections outside of the top ten:
Unlawful Entry
Domestic Gross: $57 million
Coming on the heels of the Rodney King verdict and the L.A. Riots, this thriller starring the late Ray Liotta as a dirty cop tormenting Kurt Russell felt timely.
Single White Female
Domestic Gross: $48 million
Liotta was the Cop From Hell while Jennifer Jason Leigh was the Roommate From Hell terrorizing Bridget Fonda in this memorable psychological thriller.
Encino Man
Domestic Gross: $40 million
The cinematic era of MTV personality Pauly Shore (as well as Brendan Fraser) began with this caveman comedy that grossed several times its meager $7 million budget.
Universal Soldier
Domestic Gross: $36 million
Action lunkheads Jean-Claude Van Damme and Dolph Lundgren teamed up for this futuristic sci-fi pic that turned a nifty profit and spawned numerous sequels. Four summers later, director Roland Emmerich would dominate the season with Independence Day.
Honeymoon in Vegas
Domestic Gross: $35 million
With a plot similar to Indecent Proposal that would follow a few months later, Honeymoon in Vegas took the more comedic route and earned decent grosses in the cast led by Nicolas Cage, Sarah Jessica Parker, and the just departed James Caan. Plus… Flying Elvis impersonators!
Buffy the Vampire Slayer
Domestic Gross: $16 million
It did manage to double its meager budget, but this vampire comedy likely wouldn’t be remembered had it not led to a critically acclaimed WB series starring Sarah Michelle Gellar. The title role in the film version belonged to Kristy Swanson with a supporting cast including Luke Perry, Paul Reubens (aka Pee-Wee Herman), and pre double Oscar winner Hilary Swank.
My final section of the summer 1992 recap gets to the under performers and downright flops…
Death Becomes Her
Domestic Gross: $58 million
This star studded satire from Robert Zemeckis boasted Meryl Streep, Goldie Hawn, and Bruce Willis above the title and some innovative special effects. While it just missed the top ten, the $58 million take barely surpassed the $55 million budget. Audiences and critics were mixed though Death has become a cult favorite in subsequent years.
Alien 3
Domestic Gross: $55 million
Despite marking the directorial debut of David Fincher and featuring a memorably bald Sigourney Weaver, Alien 3 is considered to be a step-down from its iconic predecessors Alien and Aliens. In spite of the backlash, the franchise has continued and, of course, Fincher went onto brighter (albeit even darker) pastures.
Cool World
Domestic Gross: $14 million
Animator Ralph Bakshi is best known for his X-rated 1972 feature Fritz the Cat. After Cool World, he was still mostly known for Fritz the Cat. This hybrid of live-action and cartoon fantasy starred Kim Basinger and Brad Pitt. Yet it bombed with reviewers and crowds alike and only earned half its budget back stateside.
Christopher Columbus: The Discovery
Domestic Gross: $8 million
No one had interest in discovering this critically drubbed Columbus biopic that had Marlon Brando and Tom Selleck in the cast. Later in the fall, Ridley Scott’s 1492: Conquest of Paradise about the title character would also bomb.
Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me
Domestic Gross: $4 million
In 1990, David Lynch’s bizarre TV series was a cultural phenomenon… at least for a season. The movie version arrived after the second and final season and audiences had tuned out.
And that’s your look at the cinematic summer from 30 years ago! My recap of 2002 will be available in short order…
Illumination Entertainment will rule the Fourth of July weekend at the box office when Minions: The Rise of Gru hits theaters on July 1st. This is the fifth entry in the franchise that began a dozen summers back with Despicable Me and the first in five years.
Some early reviews are out and they’re mostly indicating it’s a decent if unspectacular chapter of the series. With 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s higher than the two previous pics – 2015’s Minions (55%) and 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (59%). Of course, Gru‘s number will soon rise or fall as more critics weigh in.
2010’s Despicable Me (81%) and its 2013 sequel (75%) fared better, but only part two received awards attention. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and Original Song with Pharrell’s inescapable “Happy”. Due to Disney’s Frozen and the equally omnipresent “Let It Go”, it lost both.
Based on early buzz, I see no path for Gru to find its way to the Animated Feature derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M
Illumination and Universal Pictures should light up the Fourth of July weekend at the box office with Minions: The Rise of Gru. The sequel to the 2015 spinoff prequel and the fifth overall entry in the Despicable Me franchise, Kyle Balda directs with Steve Carell returning to voice the title character. Other performers in the booth include Pierre Coffin, Taraji P. Henson, Michelle Yeoh, RZA, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Lucy Lawless, Dolph Lundgren, Danny Trejo, Russell Brand, Julie Andrews, and Alan Arkin. How’s that for eclectic? I’m pretty sure this marks the first collaboration between Van Damme and Andrews.
This series has proved to be a financial windfall for its studio. All four previous pics have made over $250 million domestically. Minions took in $115 million out of the gate seven summers back with $336 million overall. Immediate predecessor Despicable Me 3 from 2017, while still a hit, wasn’t as high. It premiered with $72 million and ended up with $264 million.
Three years was previously the longest wait between films. The five year gap is a bit risky as some of its fans are simply older. We’ve also seen a very recent example of an animated disappointment with Pixar’s Lightyear.
That said, I suspect Gru will rise to the occasion with a four-day holiday haul in the $75-85 million range. I’m starting out on the lower end of that scale, but my estimate could go up in the days ahead.
Minions: The Rise of Gru opening weekend prediction: $86.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
In movies nowadays, the superhero genre has become so popular that a rule now applies to well-known thespians. You can play a hero or then you act long enough to see yourself become the villain. Or vice versa. Patrick Wilson was a good guy in Watchmen and now he’s a bad guy in Aquaman. Willem Dafoe was the key villain in Spider–Man, but he’s an ally to the title character here. As for Nicole Kidman, she was Bruce Wayne’s love interest in BatmanForever. Now she’s Aquamom.
This is all in a feature-length experience that HBO’s “Entourage” treated with humor. The thought back then… who would really buy this comic book creation in his own two-hour saga? Director James Wan’s weird but often endearing take ups the ante by padding nearly an extra half hour. It sorta works. It does by knowing that it’s silly most of the time despite occasional meanderings into thinking it belongs in LordoftheRings territory. While it doesn’t, some of the battle scenes approach that grandeur.
We’ve seen Aquaman before in the DC Extended Universe. He was introduced briefly in BatmanvSuperman: DawnofJustice (which I still think is a little better than its reputation) and his role was expanded in the sub par JusticeLeague. He gets the whole origin treatment here. In 1985, the Queen of Atlantis names Atlanna (Nicole Kidman) washes up on shore after a storm in Maine. She makes the acquaintance of the local lighthouse keeper (Temuera Morrison) and Splash style romantic sparks fly. Leaving her King hubby behind underwater, Atlanna and her new flame bear a son named Arthur and that little tyke eventually becomes the heavily tattooed punk rockish muscle man embodied by Jason Momoa.
As we witnessed in the previously mentioned pics, Momoa’s Aquaman becomes a mysterious superhero above water when not chugging beers with Dad. Atlanna, on the other hand, is long gone after being hunted down by her husband’s henchmen and returning below the surface so her new family isn’t harmed. She’s said to be dead.
Soon enough, Arthur is pressured to see Atlantis for the first time. His half-brother Orm (Patrick Wilson) is hell-bent on becoming the ruling Ocean Master. That means the destruction of Earth is on his to do list. Mera (Amber Heard) is the daughter of an Atlantean King (Dolph Lundgren) allied with Orm. She disagrees with her father and along with Arthur’s old mentor (Willem Dafoe), they attempt to recruit our hero to become the King himself.
The family drama is a very familiar plot point in most movies in the genre – no matter which cinematic universe it takes place in. This is no exception. Orm is the Loki to Aquaman’s Thor, but he’s not near as memorable. Mera is the love interest and she has some humorous moments due to her unfamiliarity with our land. Those light moments reminded me of Gal Gadot’s acclamations to her fresh surroundings in WonderWoman. And while we’re talking similar plot themes, this will remind you of BlackPanther from time to time.
There’s only so much you can accomplish with this well-worn origin stuff, but James Wan conjures up a visually vibrant tale with an engaging lead. Momoa’s Aquaman is a bit of a Hulk like creation who seems impervious to harm. Frankly, the tension is a bit watered down because it seems like he could swat Orm off like a fly. Yet the action sequences are effective when they’re not too weighed down in confusing CG mayhem. The best one takes place in Italy when all the players remain dry. Aquaman is worth the watch, despite its flaws, as it builds plenty of worlds we’ll see again and with more details. This uses what seems like a record of title cards to tell us where we are as the plot moves along. Unlike other films where we might see “St. Louis” with The Arch in frame, they’re necessary here. Most of the places we visit come with acceptable levels of entertainment value.
Blogger’s Note (12/18/18): Update here as I’m increasing my $74.3 million estimate up to $77.3 million.
We don’t have Vincent Chase from TV’s “Entourage” starring in it as portrayed on that show years ago with James Cameron directing. Yet DC Comics hero Aquaman finally gets his stand-alone experience next weekend. Instead it’s Jason Momoa reprising his role as the waterlogged warrior after first seeing him in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Justice League. James Wan, who made the Conjuring entries and Furious 7, directs. The supporting cast includes Amber Heard, Willem Dafoe, Patrick Wilson, Dolph Lundgren, and Nicole Kidman. In a bit of irony, Julie Andrews has a voice-over while Mary Poppins Returns serves as competition over the pre-Christmas frame.
Aquaman marks the sixth DC Extended Universe feature that began in 2013 with Man of Steel. The lowest grossing opener of the series was Justice League in November of last year with $93 million. All others (Steel, BvS, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) took in over $100 million. Forecasts and expectations aren’t as high here, but Warner Bros is certainly hoping for a sizable hit. The film opened in China last weekend to robust results. Reviews are fairly solid with a current Tomato rating of 78%.
No previous DC Universe production has premiered in the crowded holiday month of December. Direct competition comes from both Poppins (family crowd) and Bumblebee (action crowd). With Disney’s famous nanny getting a two-day jump on Wednesday, Aquaman appears in good position to grab the #1 spot.
My feeling is that it will do so with a gross in the mid 70s.
Aquaman opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million
For my Mary Poppins Returns prediction, click here:
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