Playing a dying documentary filmmaker recounting his life, on paper Oh, Canada sounds like the kind of project that could give 74-year-old Richard Gere his first Oscar nomination. It reunites the actor with his American Gigolo collaborator Paul Schrader some four and a half decades later. Schrader is adapting the Russell Banks novel, who also wrote Affliction. The director’s version of that source material resulted in Nick Nolte being up for Best Actor in 1998 and James Coburn winning Supporting Actor.
Canada premiered in France at Cannes. The supporting cast includes Jacob Elordi (playing Gere’s younger self), Uma Thurman, Michael Imperioli, Victoria Hill, Penelope Mitchell, and Kristine Froseth.
There’s only a smattering of reviews and they’re mixed with a current 60% RT score. Schrader has been a busy man lately. 2018’s First Reformed nabbed him a nod for Best Original Screenplay (somehow his first). Follow-ups The Card Counter and Master Gardener were not on the radar of voters. It’s highly unlikely this will be either.
As for Gere, that acting nom should remain elusive. He was rather famously omitted for 2002’s Chicago, despite the movie taking Best Picture and four of his costars being recognized. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney’s The Little Mermaid surfaces in theaters over this Memorial weekend and it hopes to dominate the box office like the Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King live-action versions did. Rob Marshall, Oscar-winning director of Chicago who recently helmed Mary Poppins Returns, is behind the camera. Halle Bailey stars as Ariel with Melissa McCarthy, Jonah Hauer-King, Daveed Diggs, Awkwafina, Jacob Tremblay, Noma Dumezweni, and Javier Bardem among the supporting players.
The musical fantasy is, of course, a remake of 1989’s classic that won Oscars for Score and Original Song (“Under the Sea”). Another tune (“Kiss the Girl”) was also in contention. 34 years ago, Best Animated Feature didn’t exist at the Academy Awards. If it had, Mermaid almost certainly would’ve won (unless you think All Dogs Go to Heaven might have managed a shocking upset).
Could this Mermaid swim into contention for the 96th ceremony? Over the past decade, several efforts in this sub-genre have been nominated in different races. 2015’s Cinderella was up for its Costume Design. 2016’s The Jungle Book won Visual Effects. The following year it was Beauty and the Beast mentioned in Costume Design and Production Design. The Lion King in 2019 received a Visual Effects nod and 2021’s Cruella won Costume Design and contended in Makeup and Hairstyling.
Reviews for Mermaid are mixed with a 69% Rotten Tomatoes score. That’s better than The Lion King (52%) for example but nowhere near Jungle Book (94%). Some of the criticism is for its visual look and I’m skeptical it places among the final five. I’m also not feeling the love in the other aforementioned categories.
Original Song could be the saving grace. There are three new ditties in the remake with Bailey performing the ballad “For the First Time”. I would think it would be the track that the Mouse Factory campaigns for.
A lot of critics are praising Bailey herself. I highly doubt she is a possibility for Best Actress at the Oscars. However, a nom in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes is doable depending on the competition in the next few months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Back in 1989, Disney’s animated underwater musical fantasy The Little Mermaid helped usher in a new golden era for the studio. Over the past few years, the Mouse Factory has made a habit out of releasing live-action renderings of those classics. This includes the pics that immediately followed Mermaid in Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King.
It’s Ariel’s turn this Memorial Day weekend with Halle Bailey in the title role. Melissa McCarthy is Ursula and other supporting players include Jonah Hauer-King, Daveed Diggs, Awkwafina, Jacob Tremblay, Noma Dumezweni, and Javier Bardem. Rob Marshall, Oscar winning maker of Chicago as well as Mary Poppins Returns, directs.
Disney has mostly seen boffo results with this subgenre. This include four premieres over nine figures: 2016’s The Jungle Book ($103M), 2017’s Beauty and the Beast ($174M) and Aladdin ($116M) and The Lion King ($191M) from 2019. For Aladdin, that number represents the four-day Memorial weekend haul. Mermaid looks to swim in a similar financial pool as that effort. Anything below $100M would be a letdown.
I figure Mermaid will easily accomplish that goal. The original is beloved enough that the grown-ups who saw it 30 plus years ago should eagerly take their young ones. I’ll say the extended Friday to Monday gross may get beyond $130M.
The Little Mermaid opening weekend prediction: $132.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
It’s been a question nagging at me for a few days now. Is Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast truly the Best Picture frontrunner? I’ve had it ranked #1 for weeks and weeks. Yet I find myself moving away from it in other top of the line races. And that casts a shadow of doubt and a legitimate one.
Why? Let’s start with Best Director. I’ve never had Branagh listed in first place. That spot has mostly been held by Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. I also believe Denis Villeneuve could be honored for Dune. And West Side Story holds the ability to make a real impact and that could sweep its maker (his name is Steven Spielberg) in. Even if Branagh doesn’t take the gold for his behind the camera work, that doesn’t eliminate Belfast for Pic contention. Those races often split (8 out of 21 times this century).
So let’s move onto its Original Screenplay. Up until the last few days, I had Belfast placed first there. However, I’ve replaced it with Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. Once again, not winning screenplay doesn’t necessarily forecast losing Best Picture. That’s occurred six times in the 21 21st century ceremonies (including with last year’s Nomadland).
Here’s where it gets trickier. What’s the latest Best Picture winner to land the gold statue without a Director or Screenplay victory? That would be 19 years ago with Chicago. It happened two years prior to that with Gladiator.Â
What do both of those films have in common? They both picked up another major award. For Gladiator, it was Russell Crowe in Best Actor. With Chicago – Catherine Zeta-Jones’s Supporting Actress win.
So if history is any guide, Belfast at least needs an acting win. That’s absolutely possible in either supporting race. I’ve had Caitriona Balfe at #1 for some time (while having her costar Judi Dench on the outside looking in). I’m not sure if she stays there when I do my update this week. Her biggest threat to lose could come from Ariana DeBose in West Side Story. I also wouldn’t count out Aunjanue Ellis for King Richard or Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog.
Supporting Actor is wide open. Both Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan’s performances in Belfast could make the cut. I don’t have either in first place. That slot belongs to Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog at the moment. Anything could happen in Supporting Actor and hopefully the picture becomes more clear as precursors bestow their best of’s. We could see contenders like Troy Kotsur (CODA), Mike Faist (West Side Story), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), or Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) rise.
My point is this. The idea that Belfast doesn’t win Director, any acting race, or screenplay is quite feasible. If that occurs, how can it be considered the favorite for the biggest competition of the bunch?
Of course this post could be premature. Belfast could win Director, Original Screenplay, and podium trips for Balfe and probably Hinds over Dornan (or some combo of that). Or there’s the other scenario. If Licorice Pizza takes screenplay and the supporting prizes go elsewhere and a different filmmaker takes their race, Oscar night is more likely to end in a West Side story or with a Dog flexing power or with a Pizza delivery.
Continuing with my series showcasing the voluminous amount of Oscar nominees and winners that have appeared in the 25 Marvel Cinematic Universe pictures (including the upcoming Black Widow and The Eternals), we arrive at Best Supporting Actor.
If you missed my previous posts covering the lead performers in Actor and Actress, you can find them here:
Supporting Actor, of the four acting categories, contains the most nominees at 36. However, there are only 4 wins represented. As a reminder, the MCU has given us 110 total nominees and 20 golden recipients.
Let’s start with the four gentlemen who made a trip to the podium:
Sam Rockwell, who costarred in Iron Man 2, took gold in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing MissouriÂ
Tommy Lee Jones, who appeared in Captain America: First Avenger, emerged victorious in 1993 for The Fugitive
Benicio del Toro, who memorably appeared in Guardians of the Galaxy, won in 2000 for Traffic
J.K. Simmons, who popped up in Spider-Man: Far From Home reprising his role as J. Jonah Jameson from the original Spidey trilogy, won in 2014 for Whiplash
And now the 29 additional performers who received nods:
Tony Stark himself, Robert Downey Jr., received a nomination in 2008 for Tropic Thunder
Jeff Bridges, the Iron Man villain, is a four-time nominee for 1971’s The Last Picture Show, 1974’s Thunderbolt and Lightfoot, 2000’s The Contender, and Hell or High Water in 2016
Samuel L. Jackson, who has played Nick Fury in numerous MCU entries, got a nod in 1994 for Pulp Fiction
Edward Norton, who was the Hulk before Mark Ruffalo, is a two-time nominee for 1996’s Primal Fear and 2014’s Birdman
Tim Roth, bad guy in Norton’s The Incredible Hulk, for 1995’s Rob Roy
William Hurt, whose MCU appearances also began in The Incredible Hulk, for 2005’s A History of Violence
Sam Rockwell was nominated a year after his Billboards win in 2018 for Vice
Anthony Hopkins, Thor’s dad, for 1997’s Amistad and last year’s The Two Popes
Stanley Tucci, also of Captain America: First Avenger, in 2010 for The Lovely Bones
Mark Ruffalo is a three-time nominee: 2010’s The Kids Are All Right, 2014’s Foxcatcher, and in 2015 for Spotlight
Jeremy Renner, aka Hawkeye, in 2010’s The Town
Ben Kingsley, from Iron Man 3, is a two-time mention for 1991’s Bugsy and 2001’s Sexy Beast
Benicio del Toro also received a nomination for 2003’s 21 Grams
Bradley Cooper, Rocket from Guardians of the Galaxy, for 2013’s American Hustle
Djimon Hounsou, who first appeared in Guardians, for both 2003’s In America and 2006’s Blood Diamond
John C. Reilly, another Guardians performer, for 2002’s Chicago
Josh Brolin, aka Thanos, for 2008’s Milk
Sylvester Stallone, who appeared in the Guardians sequel, for 2015’s Creed
Matt Damon, who had a cameo in Thor: Ragnarok, for Invictus in 2009
Jude Law, from Captain Marvel, received a nomination 20 years earlier for The Talented Mr. Ripley
Jake Gyllenhaal, villain for Spider-Man: Far From Home, for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll have Supporting Actress up in short order…
My Case of posts for thespians competing for Oscars comes to our final Best Actress nominee – Renee Zellweger in Judy:
The Case for Renee Zellweger
She’s one of the comeback stories of the year and in the strong front runner position for this award. This is Zellweger’s fourth nomination, but it’s been awhile. The actress failed to achieve gold for her first two mentions with Bridget Jones’s Diary and Chicago, but the third time was the charm in Supporting Actress with 2003’s Cold Mountain. Her role as Judy Garland has already earned her the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice honors.
The Case Against Renee Zellweger
The film itself drew a mixed reaction from critics. Challengers to Zellweger could point to last year when Glenn Close (The Wife) picked up the same precursors, but was upset on Oscar night by Olivia Colman for The Favourite.Â
The Verdict
There are some who feel Zellweger could be vulnerable to an upset by either Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) or Charlize Theron (Bombshell). However, there’s no doubt that the smart money is on her to win 16 years after her initial podium trip.
My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Martin Scorsese in The Irishman!
One of the longest running Broadway musicals of all time gets the big budget screen treatment next weekend with the unleashing of Cats. The rendering of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s work comes from the Oscar-winning director of The King’s Speech Tom Hooper, who also made the Les Miserables adaptation in 2012. Performers donning the fur include James Corden, Judi Dench, Jason Derulo, Idris Elba, Jennifer Hudson, Ian McKellen, Taylor Swift, Rebel Wilson, and Francesca Howard.
When the Cats trailer was posted a few months back, it was greeted with a certain amount of derision. Even with that negative buzz and a review embargo that doesn’t lapse until right before its release, these musicals with hefty price tags have shown their muscle before during the holiday season.
In 2017, The Greatest Showman was met with mixed reviews. Its $8.8 million opening on the same pre Christmas weekend was a disappointment, but it legged out to an amazing $174 million domestically. Five years back, Into the Woods took in a joyous $45 million over its extended Christmas rollout.
This is not expected to reach the highs of Woods or lows of Showman out of the gate. Competition is fierce with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker premiering on the same day. That said, Universal Pictures has perhaps smartly scheduled this as counter programming for female and older crowds. On the other hand, Bombshell (also out next Friday) is searching for the same audience.
I believe this manages low to mid teens haul for starters as it hopes for positive word-of-mouth afterwards and nine lives of profitability in subsequent frames.
Cats opening weekend prediction: $14.5 million
For my Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker prediction, click here:
It’s been quite some time since Renee Zellweger has been in the minds of Oscar voters for consideration, but that looks to change in 2019 with Judy. The film finds the actress portraying screen legend Judy Garland in the final tumultuous year of her life. Rupert Goold directs with a supporting cast including Jessie Buckley, Finn Wittrock, Rufus Sewell, and Michael Gambon.
While reviews for the picture itself are of a mixed nature, critics are praising Zellweger’s work as the troubled star. At the beginning of this century, the performer was recognized three years in a row. In 2001 and 2002, she scored back to back nods in lead actress for BridgetJones’sDiary and Chicago. 2003 brought Zellweger a Supporting Actress win for ColdMountain.
Academy folks love a good comeback story and Zellweger looks primed for a fourth nomination here as Judy. I’d suspect that would be the extent of any recognition for Judy as a whole. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
A few weeks ago, I posted look backs at major categories at the Oscars from 1990 to the present. I’ve covered all four acting races and if you missed it, you can peruse them here:
In each post, I review what I’d classify as the three least surprising winners, as well as the three biggest upsets. And I select what I believe are the strongest and weakest overall fields.
Today on the blog, we arrive at the Big Daddy – Best Picture. It’s important to remember that hindsight doesn’t come into play here. For instance, ForrestGump won the top prize in 1994. Since then, many believe fellow nominees PulpFiction or TheShawshankRedemption should have won. Yet the Gump victory was not an upset at the time. Same goes for 1990 when DanceswithWolves bested GoodFellas.
Let’s begin with a reminder of each winner since 1990:
1990 – DanceswithWolves
1991 – TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Unforgiven
1993 – Schindler’sList
1994 – ForrestGump
1995 – Braveheart
1996 – TheEnglishPatient
1997 – Titanic
1998 – ShakespeareinLove
1999 – AmericanBeauty
2000 – Gladiator
2001 – ABeautifulMind
2002 – Chicago
2003 – LordoftheRings: ReturnoftheKing
2004 – MillionDollarBaby
2005 – Crash
2006 – TheDeparted
2007 – NoCountryforOldMen
2008 – SlumdogMillionaire
2009 – TheHurtLocker
2010 – TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – TheArtist
2012 – Argo
2013 – 12YearsaSlave
2014 – Birdman
2015 – Spotlight
2016 – Moonlight
2017 – TheShapeofWater
We start with my three least surprising winners:
3. LordoftheRings: ReturnoftheKing (2003)
Peter Jackson’s final entry in the acclaimed trilogy seemed due for a win after the first two installments were nominated, but lost to ABeautifulMind and Chicago. This was as much a recognition for the entire franchise and by 2003, it was obvious the Academy would move in that direction.
2. Titanic (1997)
James Cameron’s epic was plagued with rumors of a troubled shoot and the possibility seemed real that it could be a costly flop. The opposite occurred as Titanic became the highest grossing motion picture of all time upon its release. It seemed clear that Oscar love would follow.
1. Schindler’sList (1993)
Capping an amazing year which saw Steven Spielberg direct JurassicPark over the summer, his Holocaust feature Schindler’sList became the undeniable front-runner at its end of year release. Winning all significant precursors, this was a shoo-in selection.
Now to the upsets. In my view, there were four very real ones and I had to leave one out. That would be 1995 when Braveheart emerged victorious over the favored Apollo13 and SenseandSensibility. Yet there’s 3 others that I feel top it.
3. Moonlight (2016)
LaLaLand appeared ready to pick up the gold after its filmmaker Damien Chazelle and lead actress Emma Stone had already won. And it looked like the script was being followed when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway actually announced the musical as Best Picture. Perhaps Oscar’s largest controversy followed as the wrong envelope was given and the Barry Jenkins effort Moonlight had actually won. Correct envelopes or not, the Moonlight victory was still unexpected given the La La momentum.
2. ShakespeareinLove (1998)
All eyes were on Spielberg’s World War II epic SavingPrivateRyan to win as Spielberg had already picked up his second statue for directing. Shakespeare rewrote that script and few saw it coming.
1. Crash (2005)
Here is perhaps the most surprising BP winner in history. Ang Lee’s BrokebackMountain was the strong favorite when the Paul Haggis race relations drama took it. Even presenter Jack Nicholson looked shocked when he read the envelope.
And now the fields. That’s a bit tough because just under a decade ago, the Academy switched from five finite nominees to anywhere between five and ten (nine being the most common). For weakest, I’m going with 2011 when there were 9. While there’s some quality picks like TheArtist, TheDescendants, Hugo, MidnightinParis, Moneyball, and TheTreeofLife – I feel even some of them might have missed the cut in stronger years. And I think that certainly applies to ExtremelyLoud&IncrediblyClose, TheHelp, and WarHorse.
For strongest, I will go with the aforementioned 1994. PulpFiction and Shawshank are indeed two of the most impressive cinematic contributions in recent times. Winner Gump and other nominees QuizShow and FourWeddingsandaFuneral filled out the slate.
And that does it, folks! Hope you enjoyed my look back at Best Picture in modern times.
Blogger’s Note (12/18/18): My estimate has been revised down a bit to a low to mid 30s three-day and low to mid 50s five-day
to Arriving 54 years after its beloved predecessor and with the same awards buzz, Disney unveils MaryPoppinsReturns on Wednesday next week. The musical fantasy casts Emily Blunt in the role made famous by Julie Andrews, who won an Oscar as the iconic nanny. Blunt is expected to get a nod as well. Rob Marshall, the man behind 2002 Best Picture winner Chicago and most recently IntotheWoods, directs. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Ben Whishaw, Emily Mortimer, Angela Lansbury, Julie Walters, Colin Firth, and Meryl Streep are included in the supporting cast. So is Dick Van Dyke, as an offspring of the role he played in the original.
Though official reviews aren’t out yet, buzz from screenings has been glowing and it’s already popped up on numerous top ten lists and major Academy precursors. The Mouse Factory marketing machine is second to none and anticipation is high. Furthermore, Poppins gets a two-day jump on its Christmas weekend competition, most notably Aquaman and Bumblebee.
It’s worthy of note that many holiday offerings greatly expand their grosses on subsequent weekends and aren’t nearly as front loaded as summer pics. That is probable here as I expect Poppins to experience a long and robust run.
The Wednesday debut probably means it’ll come in second to Aquaman, which opens Friday. I have a strong hunch you’ll see at #1 eventually. One fair comp is last year’s Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle. It also came out on Wednesday, taking in $36 million for the traditional weekend frame and $52 million when factoring the extra two days. The key number? It legged out to $404 million domestically.
I am counting on a similar track here and estimating it manages to fly a bit higher. I’ll say this reaches high 30s to low 40s from Friday to Sunday and get high 50s with Wednesday and Thursday accounted for.
MaryPoppinsReturns opening weekend prediction: $34.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $52.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
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