Well, a lot has certainly transpired on the Oscar prognostication front in the past week! Most notably would be the Toronto Film Festival and as usual, it helped some pictures and performers and threw shade on the hopes of others.
For blog followers, you’ve seen a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts over the last few days. Various rankings in the eight major categories have shifted as we arrive at today’s predictions with some newcomers hitting predicted territory.
Let’s go through some highlights:
- One of the more unexpected events from up north was the love for Hustlers, out tomorrow. The attention was particularly centered on the performance of Jennifer Lopez. She goes from unranked all the way to #3 in Supporting Actress.
- The Two Popes is gathering more admirers as it plays the circuit. I now have it #4 in my BP derby (up five spots). This could change, but I think it’s one of a handful of pics that could win top prize.
- Joker surprised many by emerging victorious for the Golden Lion at Venice. It now enters the fray as a predicted nominee in BP and Adapted Screenplay, in addition to Joaquin Phoenix.
- Like Popes, Waves is also making a festival splash and it enters my projected BP recipients in ninth.
- My projections in the lead acting categories remains the same ten, albeit with some jockeying from last week to this one.
- In Supporting Actor, lots of movement. Tom Hanks was heralded for his portrayal of Mister Rogers in Toronto for Marielle Heller’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I also have Sterling K. Brown in Waves pulling a J-Lo and going from not ranked to nominee. And Jamie Foxx in Just Mercy is drawing acclaim so he joins the shortlist. They replace Willem Dafoe, Al Pacino, and Taika Waititi in a crowded field.
- Speaking of Waititi, Jojo Rabbit was met with wildly divergent opinions in Toronto. I now have it only receiving an Adapted Screenplay nod, but expect its journey to Oscar attention or no attention to be an ongoing story.
- Harriet seemed to be a bit of a Toronto disappointment. While I’m still listing Cynthia Erivo’s work as the title character in Actress, the movie itself has dropped completely out of my top 25.
- There is no doubt that the badly reviewed The Goldfinch has seen its Academy dreams totally vanish.
Keep reading on to see how I have everything shaking out at the moment and I’ll have updates forecasts next Thursday!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 15)
9. Waves (PR: 12)
10. 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 14)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. Just Mercy (PR: 21)
14. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
15. The Report (PR: 10)
16. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
17. Dark Waters (PR: 17)
18. Bombshell (PR: 18)
19. A Hidden Life (PR: 16)
20. The Lighthouse (PR: 19)
21. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Queen and Slim (PR: 23)
24. Rocketman (PR: 22)
25. Ad Astra (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Harriet
The Laundromat
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
5. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
7. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
8. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 7)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 11)
10. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 9)
11. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 12)
12. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 13)
13. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
14. Todd Haynes, Dark Waters (PR: 14)
15. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 15)
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
3. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 5)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 9)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
10. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 15)
11. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 11)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 10)
13. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 12)
14. Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim (PR: 13)
15. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: 14)
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 9)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 10)
10. Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love (PR: 13)
11. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
12. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 15)
13. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 12)
14. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 14)
15. Elle Fanning, Teen Spirit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Natalie Portman, Lucy in the Sky
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
3. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 11)
4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 2)
7. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 3)
8. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 7)
9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 12)
10. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 8)
11. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
12. Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 15)
13. Jamie Bell, Rocketman (PR: 10)
14. Chris Evans, Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Aldis Hodge, Clemency (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Waves
Gary Oldman, The Laundromat
Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
7. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat (PR: 6)
8. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 11)
10. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
11. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 12)
12. Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters (PR: 14)
13. Anna Paquin, The Irishman (PR: 13)
14. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Renee Elise Goldsberry, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Janelle Monae, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Taylor Russell, Waves
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
4. Joker (PR: 7)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
7. Dark Waters (PR: 4)
8. The Laundromat (PR: 5)
9. Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Luce (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Judy (PR: 15)
12. Toy Story 4 (PR: 11)
13. Downton Abbey (PR: 14)
14. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 12)
15. The Good Liar (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Goldfinch
The King
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 4)
5. Waves (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. The Report (PR: 5)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Booksmart (PR: 10)
11. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Bombshell (PR: 12)
13. The Lighthouse (PR: 11)
14. 1917 (PR: 14)
15. Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Harriet
Dolemite Is My Name
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 