October 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/08): The announced theater count of just 1300 venues has me changing my prediction from $5.2 million to $2.2 million. That puts it outside of the of the top 5.

With Taylor Swift sashaying out of multiplexes after a dominant weekend, Tron: Ares looks to take over the charts. We also have Channing Tatum in the crime dramedy Roofman and Jennifer Lopez headlining Kiss of the Spider Woman. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction

Roofman Box Office Prediction

Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

With scant competition, Tron should have no trouble placing first. That said, I have the sci-fi threequel earning less out of the gate than what greeted Tron: Legacy nearly 15 years ago.

I have both Roofman and Spider Woman in the mid single digits and both could fall behind the third frame of One Battle After Another if it dips in the low to mid 40s. **I’ll also note the release of Soul on Fire starring William H. Macy. It could manage to do $3 million or so and sneak into the top 5, but I’m uncertain on the theater count. I may add it into the lineup later this week so keep an eye out.

The Conjuring: Last Rites could hold the five spot since I believe its decline will be far less than The Smashing Machine‘s sophomore outing. The latter bombed over the weekend (more on that below) and its B- Cinemascore doesn’t bode well for the road ahead.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

3. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

5. The Smashing Machine

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (October 3-5)

To coincide with the release of her already record-breaking 12th album, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl played for a three-day engagement and was #1 as expected. The $34 million take was in line with many expectations, but I thought Ms. Swift might surpass them with a $48.6 million projection. Any way you cut it, it’s a fine result while not approaching the $93 million that her Eras Tour theatrical experience garnered.

In fact, pretty much everything fell below my forecasts this weekend. One Battle After Another slid to second with a troubling 50% decline to $11 million. I was more generous at $14.5 million as I thought the A Cinemascore would help out more than it did. The two-week take is $42 million.

Dwayne Johnson suffered his weakest ever wide release opening as The Smashing Machine crumbled in third with $6 million. I guesstimated more than twice that number at $13.7 million. A poor start like that should evaporate any awards buzz and look for it to fade quickly.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie nosedived 61% in fourth with $5.3 million compared to my glass half full $7.9 million prediction. Its ten-day tally is a meager $21 million.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five with $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The five-week total is $167 million.

Two other new(ish) titles struggled. The re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water was seventh with $3.2 million. I went with $4.4 million. Nevertheless the few extra bucks brought its gross to $687 million as Avatar: Fire and Ash is primed for December.

Canine horror pic Good Boy was ninth with $2.3 million, falling a bit under my $2.8 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 3-5 Box Office Predictions

Just as she will on the music charts starting Friday, the biggest pop star in the universe seeks to dominate the box office rankings with Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. We also have Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt in the MMA biopic The Smashing Machine, the re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water and canine centric horror tale Good Boy out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction

The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction

Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Coinciding with the release of her 12th studio album, Showgirl looks to kick up impressive earnings for its engagement lasting only this weekend. While it’s unlikely to approach the $93 million generated out of the gate by her Eras Tour doc in 2023, I believe it’ll surpass the $40 million forecasts and reach higher 40s. As a general rule, take the over when it comes to Taylor.

The Smashing Machine will compete for adult eyeballs with the second weekend of One Battle After Another. My low teens take would put it in third for a so-so showing.

While audiences await threequel James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash this December, I have the re-release of The Way of Water in mid single digits and rounding out the high five.

My lower single digits estimate at $2.8 million for Good Boy leaves it outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Battle came in at the lower end of its expected range (more on that below). However, awards buzz and the Cinemascore grade of A might mean a meager drop. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie didn’t pack in family crowds, but lack of competition for kids (though plenty of them might see Ms. Swift) could mean a decline around 40% or less.

Here’s I have it all shaking out:

1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

2. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

3. The Smashing Machine

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Avatar: The Way of Water re-release

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (September 26-28)

Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed One Battle After Another certainly set a record for his openings. Yet the $22 million debut for Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest came in lower than my $27 million prediction. It will hope for (and should achieve) smallish dips in the coming weeks due to the aforementioned word-of-mouth.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was second with an unimpressive $13.6 million, well under my $20.3 million call. Based on the Netflix TV show, plenty of viewers opted to stay home.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle was third in weekend #3 with $7.1 million and ahead of my $5.8 million projection. The anime record holder has amassed $118 million stateside.

The Conjuring: Last Rites was fourth in weekend #4 at $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) as the sequel’s tally is $161 million.

The Strangers – Chapter 2 sputtered in fifth with $5.8 million, under my $6.7 million take. This scary sequel failed to approach the double digits that its predecessor last year managed.

Speaking of underwhelming fright fest performances, Him tumbled 73% in sixth with $3.5 million. I was more generous at $5.1 million as its two-week earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction

Coinciding with the release of her 12th album The Life of a Showgirl, the unstoppable force that is Taylor Swift is back in theaters October 3rd courtesy of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. Clocking in at just under an hour and a half, Showgirl will showcase the premiere of a new video in addition to lyric videos for other tracks and behind the scenes footage.

Announced just days ago, all domestic AMC Theatres will feature the project as well as participating Alamo Drafthouse, Regal and Cinemark locations. Tickets are $12 to honor her 12th album. Nearly two years ago, the pop sensation dominated the box office with her Eras Tour big screen experience. It opened to a walloping $93 million on its way to a $180 million stateside haul.

Showgirl will only be in theaters for three days. Expectations are not as high and this probably won’t play on the 3800+ venues that Eras did. Early estimates have this grossing around $40 million. This might go without saying, but I would take the over when it comes to Ms. Swift.

When the screen count is released, my estimate could fluctuate. While I agree this won’t reach Eras level, I’m going with low to mid 50s and let’s see if that ticks up (or maybe down) in the days to come.

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl opening weekend (and overall gross) prediction: $48.6 million

For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:

The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction

For my Avatar: The Way of Water re-release prediction, click here:

Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction

For my Good Boy prediction, click here:

Good Boy Box Office Prediction

81st Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions

In addition to moving to CBS, the 81st Golden Globe Awards also moves to six nominees in their cinematic races this Sunday. Jo Koy hosts the 81st annual telecast with what could be the Barbenheimer broadcast.

There’s a new category via Cinematic and Box Office Achievement with its eight contenders (the rest have the aforementioned six as opposed to a previous quintet).

Readers of the blog know that I spend a whole lot of space speculating on the Oscars. Not so much with the Globes, but I’ll make some quick observations before making my picks along with a runner-up selection.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s divide of Drama and Musical & Comedy indeed allows Oppenheimer and Barbie to both emerge as victors. The latter seems highly likely to take Musical/Comedy while Oppenheimer faces stiff competition from Killers of the Flower Moon.

In the acting categories, we could find out if certain performers begin a run of domination. This includes Bradley Cooper (Maestro) or Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) for Actor, Lily Gladstone (Killers) or Emma Stone (Poor Things) in Actress, Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) for Supporting Actor, and Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) or Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) in Supporting Actress.

Of course, we can always count on surprises from the Globes. Let’s get to the predictions and I’ll have a recap up after the show!

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Best Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)

PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)

PREDICTED WINNER: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

PREDICTED WINNER: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Barbie

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Past Lives

Best Non-English Language Motion Picture

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: Past Lives

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish

PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Best Original Score

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

That means that I am picking a Barbenheimer heavy program with these movies winning these numbers of Globes:

5 Wins

Oppenheimer

4 Wins

Barbie

2 Wins

The Holdovers

1 Win

Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2023: The Year of Taylor Swift

My first two Year Of posts for the cinematic gifts we’ll remember in 2023 didn’t cover individuals. They focused on the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer and the impressive past few months for video game adaptations. You can peruse both of those entries here:

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer

2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie

Now we arrive at one performer whose year shone brightest beyond the silver screen. Yes, we’re talking Taylor, Swifties! Whether it was on her money minting tour or upping NFL viewership due to her romance with Travis Kelce, it was all about Taylor in 2023.

That popularity extended to the multiplex. On October 13th, her concert pic Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour broke every record in the genre. Actually it did so before it release by racking up ginormous pre-sales. When it debuted, the result was a $250 million worldwide gross with nearly $180 million of that stateside. Critics turned into Swifties as well (99% on Rotten Tomatoes).

This reversed perhaps the only blip on Swift’s career trajectory. Her movie past was littered with disappointments like 2019’s Cats and 2022’s Amsterdam. With Eras, she now stands tall as the Queen of the Concert Movie… and pretty much everything else in 2023. My Year Of posts will continue…

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards (airing January 7th) were unveiled this morning. As always, there were some surprises and it was a particularly weak day for one hopeful. That said, a lot of what transpired went according to plan. I went 74 for 92 on my picks (I’ll take it!).

Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my initial take on who or what may emerge victorious.

Best Motion Picture Drama

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Nailed the Drama category as this probably will come down to Oppenheimer vs. Killers.

Best Motion Picture Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things

How I Did: 5/6

In what might be the most surprising omission of the morning, The Color Purple didn’t make the cut. I (along with everyone else) had it in. I didn’t have Air though it was my alternate. Barbie is the frontrunner though Poor Things is viable.

Best Director

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Just as in Motion Picture Drama, Nolan vs. Scorsese might be the showdown with Gerwig as a potential spoiler.

Best Actress Drama

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

I wouldn’t discount Hüller or Mulligan as slight upset picks, but Gladstone looks to be the favorite.

Best Actor Drama

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Like the Oscar race, this could end up as a contest between Cooper vs. Murphy.

Best Actress Musical/Comedy

How I Did: 4/6

Pöysti is an out of nowhere selection while Lawrence was my alternate. They get in over Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings). This is either Stone (probably) or Robbie (maybe).

Best Actor Musical/Comedy

Nominee: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 5/6

Phoenix in over Gael Garcia Bernal for Cassandro. Wright has a shot, but this is Giamatti’s category to lose in my view.

Best Supporting Actress

How I Did: 5/6

I would’ve picked Brooks as the likely winner until Purple‘s poor performance today. Now I think this acting race, perhaps more than any other, is wide open. I had Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) in instead of Pike.

Best Supporting Actor

How I Did: 5/6

Had Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) and not Dafoe. Downey Jr. is the probable selection though I wouldn’t discount Gosling or Melton.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/6

I did not have Anatomy or Past Lives. Their inclusion is by no means shocking, but I am genuinely surprised The Holdovers did not make the list (neither did American Fiction). This is another race where the voters could go several directions with Barbie perhaps having an ever so slight edge.

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

How I Did: 7/8

This new category can correctly be called the “Barbenheimer” award or the “Let’s Get Taylor Swift To The Ceremony Trophy”. I didn’t have Reckoning and instead had Elemental. Hard to imagine this not going to Barbie.

Best Non-English Motion Picture

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/6

Here’s where I screwed up. Didn’t have Leaves, Capitano, or Past Lives (which is considered non-English for some reason here). Instead I had Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers’ Lounge. This should come down to Anatomy vs. Zone and I’m currently expecting the former to emerge.

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish

How I Did: 4/6

Suzume and Wish get in over Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and Nimona. Some others were blindsided that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem didn’t make it. Boy vs. Spidey is the showdown.

Best Original Score

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/6

Zone makes the derby instead of Nyad. This should be Oppenheimer.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 3/6

Well, I got half and those were the Barbie tracks. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple, and “A World of Your Own” from Wonka were my picks instead of “Addicted to Romance” (which could mean Bruce Springsteen shows up), “Peaches”, and “Road to Freedom”. I’d say “What Was I Made For?” or “I’m Just Ken” win.

And there you have it. I’ll have final predictions for the Globes up shortly before airtime. Keep an eye on the blog for all things Oscar!

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Predictions

Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.

As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.

Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.

Motion Picture (Drama)

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Saltburn

Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

American Fiction

Barbie

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

Alternate: Air

Film Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Actress (Film Drama)

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaney, Priscilla

Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Actor (Film Drama)

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothee Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Best Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: May December

Cinematic and Box Office Achievment

Barbie

Elemental

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Alternate: The Little Mermaid

Motion Picture (Non-English Language)

Anatomy of a Fall

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Promised Land

Motion Picture (Animated)

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Alternate: Wish

Original Score

The Boy and the Heron

Killers of the Flower Moon

Nyad

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

Original Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

6 Nominations

Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Maestro, May December

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings

December 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million. I’m also lowering my Renaissance prediction from $8.9M to $7.6M and raising my Hunger Games estimates from $7.8M to $8.6M. This dramatically alters my previous top five.

Before some high profile holiday releases are unwrapped, it should be a quiet weekend at the box office as Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron is the only significant newcomer. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Boy and the Heron Box Office Prediction

We may not see any picture top $10 million in this sleepy frame. Beyoncé may manage to rule the charts for a second time even though I have Renaissance having a sophomore slide in the high 50s. A gross approaching $9 million should keep it ahead of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (which should fall in the mid 40s).

After an impressive debut, Godzilla Minus One should stay in third with Trolls Band Together remaining in fourth. I have Heron rounding out the top five, just ahead of Disney’s dud Wish.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

2. The Boy and the Heron

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

4. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Audiences might not have been crazy in love with Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé to the level of Taylor Swift’s tour feature, but it opened in line with its anticipated range. Premiering in first, the acclaimed concert pic started with $21.8 million. That’s on pace with my $20.7 million take.

The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes slid to second with $14.1 million in its third outing, just ahead of my $13.1 million call. The franchise prequel is up to $120 million.

In a weekend with many debuts, Godzilla Minus One achieved the largest one at $11.4 million. The Japanese was third with $11.4 million, well ahead of my $7.6 million projection. This is especially impressive since it’s making most of its green overseas.

Trolls Band Together was fourth with $7.8 million (I said $8.5 million) as the three-week total is $75 million.

Disney’s Wish tumbled a steep 61% for fifth in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was more generous at $9.3 million. The two-week tally is a troubling $42 million.

The second weekend plummet was even higher for Napoleon in sixth. It was down 65% to $7.2 million compared to my $9.2 million forecast. The overall gross is $45 million.

Newcomers filled the 7-9 spots. Hindi-language action flick Animal exceeded my expectations in seventh with $6.4 million. I said $4 million.

Sci-fi tale The Shift from Angel Studios was eighth with $4.6 million. That’s in line with my expectations at $4.3 million.

John Woo’s Silent Night was quiet in ninth with $3 million. That’s below my expectations as I went with $5 million.

Lastly, Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving was tenth with $2.6 million, a tad under my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $28 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Box Office Prediction

With a similar distribution deal to what Taylor Swift cut with AMC Theaters last month, Queen Bey brings her world tour to the multiplexes on December 1st with the release of Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé. The documentary concert pic hopes to capture a fraction of what Ms. Swift took in ($175 million thus far domestically).

No matter what happens, the performer will see lots of dough since (like Swift) she’ll receive 50% of the gross. That said, while Beyoncé is obviously a beloved international superstar, Renaissance will be fortunate to bring in a third of what The Eras Tour accomplished for its start. The Swifties propelled Eras to a record breaking $92.8 million premiere.

Anything over $30 million should be considered a tremendous debut. Even a low to mid 20s start could put it in the #1 spot to start off December at the box office (depending on where Wish and other Thanksgiving leftovers are at). I’ll say this falls in that range.

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million

For my Silent Night prediction, click here:

Silent Night Box Office Prediction

For my Godzilla Minus One prediction, click here:

Godzilla Minus One Box Office Prediction

For my The Shift prediction, click here:

The Shift Box Office Prediction

For my Animal prediction, click here:

Animal Box Office Prediction

November 17-19 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of new titles enter the pre-Thanksgiving frame marketplace with prequel The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes expected to lead the way and DreamWorks Animation’s threequel Trolls Band Together in the runner-up spot. We also have Eli Roth’s slasher flick Thanksgiving and Taika Waititi’s sports dramedy Next Goal Wins out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Box Office Prediction

Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction

Thanksgiving Box Office Prediction

Next Goal Wins Box Office Prediction

All four Hunger Games titles (released from 2012-15) debuted to over $100 million, but that streak is sure to end with Songbirds. It may only fly to around $50 million and I’ve got it achieving just a smidge under that.

Barring a significant Hunger underperformance, Trolls should settle for #2 in the mid 20s as it hopes to leg out impressively in future holiday weekends.

The Marvels experienced a historically low start for an MCU offering (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, it could be headed for a catastrophic fall in the mid 60s or more in its sophomore frame (similar to The Flash this summer). That’s not the comparison it wanted and it likely means a third place showing.

I’ll say Thanksgiving carves up a little over $10 million and that would put it in fourth. The news is bleaker for the frequently delayed Next Goal Wins as it failed to generate awards buzz on the fest circuit and seems to have little heat attached to it. I’m putting it in sixth behind Five Nights at Freddy’s in weekend #4.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million

2. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $26.7 million

3. The Marvels

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

4. Thanksgiving

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Five Nights at Freddy’s

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

6. Next Goal Wins

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (November 10-12)

It was indeed the worst of times for the Marvel Cinematic Universe as The Marvels had the lowest debut of all 33 franchise entries dating back to the summer of 2008. Captain Marvel and team made off with a mere $46.1 million, right on pace with my $46.3 million (my projection kept dwindling in the week leading up to its premiere). That’s the worst MCU kickoff by a pretty wide margin as the previous record was held by 2008’s The Incredible Hulk at $55 million. A series that once seemed indestructible is no longer as comic book movies have had a tough 2023 in multiplexes. As mentioned, the B Cinemascore indicates crowds aren’t digging the product.

Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $8.9 million (a bit ahead of my $7.4 million take). The three-week tally is up to $127 million.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour was third with $6 million as took a heftier drop (over 50%) that I figured in its fifth weekend. The record setting concert pic total is $172 million.

In a surprising development, Priscilla was fourth in its sophomore go-round. The biopic increased its theater count and fell only 5% to $4.7 million for $12 million overall. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

Killers of the Flower Moon was fifth with $4.5 million in weekend four. My guess? $4.5 million for $59 million in the bank.

The Holdovers expanded to nearly 800 screens and the Oscar hopeful made $3.2 million for sixth (I said $3 million).

Finally, faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem got off to a rougher journey than I forecasted. It was seventh with $2.4 million and I thought it would double that figure with $4.8 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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