We have arrived at my penultimate weekly Oscar predictions. With the Oscar nods arriving in 8 days, I will be making my final estimates next Monday. And as we get closer and closer to actually knowing the nominees, there are some notable changes today:
- Jordan Peele has at last entered my predicted five in the Director category, replacing Steven Spielberg.
- Daniel Kaluuya is in Best Actor for the first time, replacing Tom Hanks.
- Frances McDormand has taken the #1 spot in Actress over Saoirse Ronan.
- In more good news for Three Billboards, Sam Rockwell has reached the top spot in Supporting Actor over Willem Dafoe.
- Octavia Spencer has replaced Holly Hunter in Supporting Actress.
You can read it all here with those last estimates coming in one week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Get Out (PR: 6)
6. The Post (PR: 5)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
11. Mudbound (PR: 10)
12. Darkest Hour (PR: 13)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
14. Molly’s Game (PR: 14)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
9. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
9. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 10)
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 7)
9. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hostiles (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Beguiled
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 6)
7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: 7)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dunkirk
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)
5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)
7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 2)
3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 4)
4. In the Fade (PR: 5)
5. The Insult (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square (PR: 6)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. On Body and Soul (PR: 8)
9. Felicite (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 3)
4. Icarus (PR: 5)
5. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 6)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)
8. LA 92 (PR: 9)
9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Human Flow (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ex Libris: The New York Public Library
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
5. The Post (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
7. Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)
10. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Bird
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
8. Downsizing (PR: 9)
9. The Post (PR: 7)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 5)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 8)
10. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. I, Tonya (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Bright (PR: 4)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 6)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
8. Coco (PR: 8)
9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coco (PR: 8)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 9)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 2)
3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 3)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 5)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture –
14 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 Nominations
The Post
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Get Out, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Mudbound
3 Nominations
Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Baby Driver
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, The Big Sick, Victoria and Abdul, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, Icarus, City of Ghosts
See you next week!