Luc Besson loves assassins and his latest action thriller Anna features another one in the form of Russian supermodel Sasha Luss. She stars in the reported $30 million budgeted pic with Luke Evans, Helen Mirren, and Cillian Murphy in the supporting cast. As mentioned, the director has played in the genre before with LaFemmeNikita and TheProfessional. His recent filmography includes hits (2014’s Lucy) and big budget flops (2017’s ValerianandtheCityofaThousandPlanets).
Expectations are low here. Its best hope could be for a bountiful European gross. The blockbuster earnings of Lucy were greatly assisted by its lead Scarlett Johansson. No such headliners exist here.
Rolling out on approximately 2150 screens, I think $5 million could even be too high of a mark.
James Cameron is no stranger to Oscar attention with Titanic winning Best Picture 21 years ago and Avatar picking up a slew of nominations in 2009. In two weeks, he serves as co-writer for Alita: BattleAngel along with Laeta Kologridis. It’s directed by Robert Rodriguez. The pic is based on a well-known series of cyberpunk graphic novels from Japan. Rosa Salazar voices the title character and provides motion capture work for her movements in this mix of live and CG action.
Reviews are out and they’re skewing negative, along with some positive here and there. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 44%. A lot of the critics are particularly picking apart the screenplay and that’s not an uncommon knock on Cameron’s writing.
Alita comes with a reported budget upwards of $200 million and it’s being seen as a potential costly flop stateside (foreign grosses could be a different story). While this clearly won’t contend for major categories in awards season, the state of the art visuals have been praised. And it’s worth noting that Cameron’s directorial efforts Aliens, TheAbyss, Terminator2: JudgmentDay, Titanic, and Avatar all won Best Visual Effects at the Oscars.
That said, there’s plenty of eye-popping blockbuster feasts on the schedule in 2019 (Avengers: Endgame and the next StarWars included). With the possibility of negative buzz enveloping it, this may not even be a slam dunk in that category. In that sense, it could be similar to 2017’s ValerianandtheCityofaThousandPlanets, which also had poor word-of-mouth and missed out in its most obvious slot for recognition. If this manages a nod, the two Sound races are possible as well.
We have arrived at my penultimate weekly Oscar predictions. With the Oscar nods arriving in 8 days, I will be making my final estimates next Monday. And as we get closer and closer to actually knowing the nominees, there are some notable changes today:
Jordan Peele has at last entered my predicted five in the Director category, replacing Steven Spielberg.
Daniel Kaluuya is in Best Actor for the first time, replacing Tom Hanks.
Frances McDormand has taken the #1 spot in Actress over Saoirse Ronan.
In more good news for ThreeBillboards, Sam Rockwell has reached the top spot in Supporting Actor over Willem Dafoe.
Octavia Spencer has replaced Holly Hunter in Supporting Actress.
You can read it all here with those last estimates coming in one week!
Two major developments since last week’s Oscar predictions as the Golden Globes happened and the Production Guild Award nominations came out. Combined with other precursor activity, one thing has become clear to me:
It was time to remove Dunkirk from its months long perch in the #1 slot. It’s fallen to #4 and we finally have a new #1 – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Truth be told, I could have just as easily put The Shape of Water or Lady Bird in that spot. It’s a close race, folks!
Guillermo del Toro replaces Christopher Nolan in the top spot for director, as does Allison Janney in Supporting Actress over Laurie Metcalf.
We are only 15 days away from nominations and here’s my take at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
4. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
5. The Post (PR: 3)
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
9. The Big Sick (PR: 12)
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 13)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
13. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
14. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 8)
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 6)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 9)
9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
7. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
7. The Post (PR: 6)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 2)
3. The Insult (PR: 4)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)
5. In the Fade (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square (PR: 5)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)
9. Felicite (PR: 8)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Icarus (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 4)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)
8. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. LA 92 (PR: 8)
10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Chasing Coral
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 9)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 7)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hostiles
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
10. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Bright (PR: 3)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 6)
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
8. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 7)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Coco (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: 10)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
8. Coco (PR: 8)
9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 4)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
4. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 5)
5. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
8. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following nomination breakdown for each picture –
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
3 Nominations
Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Wonder Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Baby Driver, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Insult, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, City of Ghosts, Icarus
Back at it again with my first 2018 predictions for the Oscars! We are just three weeks away from the reveal of the nominations. On Sunday, a large awards precursor will occur when the Golden Globes air…
Here’s the major developments this week –
For the first time, I’m switching from a predicted nine pictures being nominated to eight. Why? Well, part of it is selfish. I feel rather confident about the eight features predicted. The nine (or ten) spot could be a mix of Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Big Sick, or Mudbound. Perhaps one or two of them sneak in. For now, they’re all out.
Speaking of The Big Sick, I’ve finally put it in the Original Screenplay predictions, which leaves out The Post.
While there’s no changes in the acting races, let’s see how the next three weeks play out. For now, my initial 2018 estimates…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
6. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
7. Get Out (PR: 6)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
11. Mudbound (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 13)
13. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 8)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
8. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 6)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)
9. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beguiled
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 4)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
8. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 9)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 4)
3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)
4. The Insult (PR: 6)
5. The Square (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Fade (PR: 5)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. Felicite (PR: 8)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 5)
4. Strong Island (PR: 7)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Icarus (PR: 3)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: Not Ranked)
8. LA 92 (PR: 4)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Human Flow
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
9. Get Out (PR: 8)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
7. Mudbound (PR: 6)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
10. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Bird
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. Downsizing (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 5)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 9)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 5)
8. The Post (PR: 7)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. Bright (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 3)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 4)
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 7)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 6)
8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coco (PR: 10)
10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)
8. Coco (PR: 10)
9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
3. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 7)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
3 Nominations
Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Mudbound, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, Get Out, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Downsizing, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Molly’s Game, Victoria and Abdul, Bright, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, The Square, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Strong Island, Long Strange Trip
Greetings everyone! It’s Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are back. In the past week, we’ve seen SAG nominations (often a better indicator than the Globes when it comes to precursors) released. This week, we’re going to see review embargoes lifted for All the Money in the World (tomorrow) and The Greatest Showman (Wednesday). These are really the final two pieces of the awards puzzle.
Here are the significant developments and changes in my rankings from the last 7 days:
Best Picture remains the same nine nominees, but Phantom Thread is, well, hanging by one with Mudbound, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, and (maybe) All the Money in the World close behind.
Daniel Kaluuya moves up to #6 in Best Actor possibilities. I’m not ready to put him in, but he’s making Franco and Hanks look a bit vulnerable.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve replaced Michael Stuhlbarg with Woody Harrelson.
In Supporting Actress, I’ve replaced Melissa Leo with Octavia Spencer. I nearly went with Holly Hunter for the 5 spot.
In Adapted Screenplay where the fifth slot looks up for grabs, I’ve put in All the Money in the World in for now (replacing Wonder).
The Foreign Language film race released its nine possible contenders. Surprisingly, BPM (Beats Per Minute) and Angelina Jolie’s First, They Killed My Father were left out.
The Visual Effects category named their ten possible films. Left off were Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Beauty and the Beast. I had all four in my top ten possibles, but not in my predicted five.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. The Post (PR: 4)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 7)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder (PR: 5)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)
8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
9. Ferdinand (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Boss Baby
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. The Square (PR: 3)
3. Loveless (PR: 5)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
5. In the Fade (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Insult (PR: 8)
7. The Wound (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Felicite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BPM (Beats Per Minute)
First, They Killed My Father
Thelma
The Divine Order
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: Not Ranked)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 5)
7. One of Us (PR: 7)
8. LA 92 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 6)
10. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
10. Get Out (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Call Me by Your Name
Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonderstruck
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
**Blogger’s Note (12/19/17): A days after my initial estimates, the Academy has announced the seven films that will compete in the category. My updated predictions are reflected here:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
3. Wonder (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
5. Bright (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Ghost in the Shell (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
Logan
The Shape of Water
The Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
It
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Okja (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Beauty and the Beast
Wonder Woman
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 10)
That gives us the following nomination breakdowns:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
The Post
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Lady Bird
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, Wonder Woman, Wonder, Baby Driver, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip
My Oscar picks will be updated next on Christmas Day!
