Nine Days premiered nine months ago at the Sundance Film Festival. It will be available for all viewers this January after Sony Pictures Classics snatched up the rights. The science fiction drama marks the directorial debut of Edson Oda with a cast featuring Winston Duke, Zazie Beetz, Benedict Wong, Tony Hale, and Bill Skarsgard. Executive produced by Spike Jonze, the pic has been praised by critics for its originality, the lead performance from Duke, and its screenplay which was penned by the director. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% currently.
Sony Pictures will need to a mount a major campaign in order for this to gain any traction with awards voters. I’m skeptical for now, but it’s not impossible that Original Screenplay could be in play if Sony plays their cards right. Bottom line: Nine Days could easily be ignored in the Oscar conversation, but it’s at least worth keeping an eye on. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Rachel Brosnahan has collected an Emmy and two Golden Globes for her small screen work on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. Julia Hart’s 1970s set crime drama I’m Your Woman marks her first starring role in a feature. Prior to its December streaming release from Amazon Studios, the pic screened yesterday at the AFI Fest.
Reviews thus far are of a mixed nature. Some critics are comparing it to the work of John Cassavates while others aren’t near as kind. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. As has been discussed before on the blog, Best Actress appears to be a crowded field in 2020. While I imagine Amazon will push Brosnahan for attention, I have yet to list her in the top ten possibilities for the race. Based on the varied reaction, I don’t expect that to change and I especially don’t envision a scenario where she approaches the final five. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Remaking Hitchcock is always a tricky proposition, but Ben Wheatley is venturing into that territory with the October 21st Netflix release of Rebecca. The 1940 version from the Master of Suspense is the only film in the legend’s filmography to win Best Picture at the Oscars (though it did not land Hitchcock a directing victory). Armie Hammer, Lily James, Kristin Scott Thomas, Sam Riley, and Ann Dowd headline this iteration.
The original source material is actually the 1938 Daphne du Maurier novel and some reviews are saying this 2020 take is actually more faithful than Hitch’s adaptation. Yet it’s getting nowhere close to the raves of what preceded it 80 years ago. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a mixed 54%.
In 1940, the trio of Laurence Olivier, Joan Fontaine, and Judith Anderson were all nominated by the Academy. These would be the roles played now by Hammer, James, and Scott Thomas. While some critics have focused on the work of the latter, I find it doubtful that Scott Thomas could nab her second nomination (her first was 1996’s The English Patient).
Even with the so-so reviews, Rebecca could still get some nods. The Production Design and Costume Design have both been singled out. In my weekly Oscar prediction updates, I had this just on the outside looking in at 6th in the costuming race and I have this making the cut in fifth in Production Design. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The weekly Oscar predictions keep coming as developments from the past 7 days have altered a couple of key races. Most prominent is Best Actress, a potentially crowded field that saw the debut of French Exit with Michelle Pfeiffer. The pic debuted to mixed reviews though critics did praise her work. That said, she moves out of the top 5 and so does Kate Winslet in Ammonite. The two new performers joining the final five: Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy and Jennifer Hudson in Respect.
Speaking of Elegy, the Netflix drama debuted its first trailer this week. Reaction was mixed, but it looks to me that Glenn Close especially solidified her status as a front runner in Supporting Actress.
In Best Actor, there’s movement as well since Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal seems to be gaining steam. He moves into the top five with Tom Hanks in News of the World dropping out. And there’s changes in Supporting Actor where we’re still waiting for category placement to be determined. I moved Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) back to Supporting and he knocks out Yahya Abdul-Mateen II from The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Lastly, Pixar’s Soul had its review embargo lifted prior to its Christmas streaming release. Feedback is very solid with some critics proclaiming it’s in the upper echelon on the studio’s work. It could become the fourth animated feature to get a Best Picture nod. For now, I’m saying it’s definitely the heavy favorite to win Animated Feature but it could miss the cut in the biggest race of all.
And with that, the updates are below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. Ammonite (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Supporting Actor)
Matt Damon, Stillwater
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 5)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 10)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Collins, Mank
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Tom Pelphrey, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Respect (PR: 9)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stillwater
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
French Exit
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 7)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 6)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wife of a Spy (PR: 7)
7. Atlantis (PR: 9)
8. Ema (PR: Not Ranked)
9. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 8)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Respect (PR: 6)
8. Emma (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 1)
5. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 9)
10. Over the Moon (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. Rebecca (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
7. Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judas and and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Midnight Sky
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. Greyhound (PR: 6)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. Mank (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 10)
10. The Old Guard (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Free Guy
And that means I am estimating the following movies end up with these numbers:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan
2 Nominations
Ammonite, Coming 2 America, Greyhound, Minari, Over the Moon, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, Giving Voice, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Streaming on Amazon Prime since September, the political doc All In: The Fight for Democracy is establishing itself as a real contender in awards season. Directed by Liz Garbus and Lisa Cortes, the pic focuses on voter suppression and features Georgia’s recent gubernatorial race with Stacey Abrams (who shares a producer credit).
Democracy has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and co-director Garbus is no stranger to Academy attention. She’s been nominated twice for 1998’s The Farm: Angola, USA and 2015’s What Happened, Miss Simone? In this heightened electoral climate, this could easily make the final cut in the Documentary Feature race and I currently have it listed in fourth for possibilities. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Disney/Pixar’s second 2020 release Soul has long been seen as their most viable Oscar contender over this spring’s Onward. Today’s buzz after it held the first screening at the London Film Festival confirms that. The jazz infused tale from Pete Docter and Kemp Powers is being called two familiar adjectives in the studio’s lexicon – heartfelt and crowd pleasing. Soul, after experiencing delays due to the COVID pandemic, is slated for a Disney+ debut on Christmas Day.
Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx, Tina Fey, Questlove, Phylicia Rashad, Daveed Diggs, and Angela Bassett, several reviews are already claiming it’s in the upper echelon of Pixar pics. Docter is no stranger to Academy love. All three of his directorial efforts – Monsters Inc., Up, Inside Out – were nominated for Best Animated Feature. The latter two emerged victorious and Up is one of three animated flicks to achieve a Best Picture nomination.
The question is not whether Soul will make the final cut in Animated Feature. It absolutely will and it’s absolutely the strong front runner to win. A better debate is whether this is the fourth animated effort to contend for the big prize. I don’t believe that’s automatic. Inside Out also garnered sterling critical reaction in 2015 and fell short of that achievement. However, Soul has solidified its position as a legit hopeful.
Additionally, expect Best Sound and the Original Score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross to be in the mix. Bottom line: Soul helped it cause to play beyond Animated Feature. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
French Exit closed the New York Film Festival last night ahead of its planned February 2021 debut and that keeps it in line for awards consideration in this altered Oscar season. The eccentric comedy from Azazel Jacobs is based on the 2018 novel by Patrick deWitt, who adapts his own work (he’s also responsible for the source material for 2018’s The Sisters Brothers).
To say Exit is experiencing mixed reviews and social media reaction is an understatement. The focus of most Academy chatter is whether or not Michelle Pfeiffer will land her fourth nomination and her first in nearly 30 years. The star garnered nods for 1988’s Dangerous Liaisons for Supporting Actress and lead for 1989’s The Fabulous Baker Boys and 1992’s Love Field.
First things first: the wildly divergent critical notices probably keep this out of contention for anything and anyone other than Pfeiffer. That leaves her costars Lucas Hedges, Tracy Letts, Danielle Macdonald, and Imogen Poots out of the conversation. Yet even some of the negative reviews point to sterling work from Pfeiffer as a down on her luck socialite widow who relocates to Paris. Variety called it the “role she’ll be remembered for” in a likely bit of hyperbole. Several other publications were far less kind, but kinder to its lead.
Best Actress currently looks more crowded than Best Actor. Already screened performances like Frances McDormand in Nomadland and Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman appear headed for the final five (with McDormand as a near shoo-in). There are major hopefuls waiting in the wings including Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), and Jennifer Hudson (Respect) among others.
I have had Pfeiffer listed in fifth place for some time in my weekly estimates (ahead of Adams and Hudson). Whether that changes with my update on Thursday is something I’ll need to ponder. I believe she could absolutely still make the cut, but I don’t think this weekend’s showing guarantees her a spot. Some soft reviews could be a detriment, but that didn’t prevent Renee Zellweger from taking gold last year as Judy. Bottom line: Pfeiffer may need to play the waiting game as the verdict comes down for other possible nominees. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
After it debuted at the Sundance Film Festival to a Dramatic Competition Directing prize, Radha Blank’s The Forty-Year-Old Version is available on Netflix this weekend. A humorous take on the director/writer/star’s real life experiences, her first feature is being hailed in critical circles with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 99%.
Its title emanating from the 2005 Steve Carell breakthrough The 40-Year-Old Virgin, the pic is certainly generating some buzz now that it’s available for mass consumption. However, I’m not confident that will translate to Oscar voters. Netflix has a mighty full plate of contenders to campaign for and this could fall under the radar. As I see it, Version‘s sole chance for recognition lies in its Original Screenplay. Unless critics groups give it momentum in the months ahead, that’s probably a stretch. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Liam Neeson is a notorious bank robber trying to go good in the aptly titled Honest Thief, one of the few major theatrical releases hitting screens this month (and 2020 for that matter). The action pic is directed by Mark Williams with a supporting cast including Kate Walsh, Robert Patrick, Anthony Ramos, Jeffrey Donovan, and Jai Courtney.
The Open Road production should see a decent number of screens (probably 2000+) as there’s just not much fresh product in the marketplace. Neeson, of course, began a run of similar genre fare over a decade ago with the release of the surprise hit Taken. The grosses have dwindled in recent years. 2019’s Cold Pursuit managed just $11 million for its start.
We are in different times with smaller expectations in this COVID world. For example, this weekend’s The War with Grandpa starring Robert De Niro appears headed for an opening weekend take in the $3-4 million range. I’m not sure Thief makes off with quite that amount, but it might be close.
Honest Thief opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
Glen Keane is a bit of a Disney legend having served as a character animator for classic titles including The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, and Aladdin. He’s also no stranger to Academy attention. Three years ago, he won an Oscar alongside collaborator Kobe Bryant for the short film Dear Basketball. On October 23, Netflix debuts his feature length directorial debut Over the Moon. The computer drawn musical features the voices of Phillipa Soo, Ken Jeong, John Cho, and Sandra Oh.
Early reviews are pretty encouraging. That said, Keane’s most notable competition comes from his former employer. Disney/Pixar’s Soul (which just announced a Disney+ streaming bow on Christmas Day) is rumored to be special and it’s been the strong front runner for Animated Feature for some time. That hasn’t changed and the real question is what’s the current runner-up.
Over the Moon could be it, but I’m beginning to believe Wolfwalkers might be in second position based on its fantastic critical reaction. Bottom line: expect Moon to be in the final five for animated fare. A win is far less likely. Also look for its Original Song titled “Rocket to the Moon” to get some attention in that category. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 