Godzilla: King of the Monsters Review

Looking back on my Godzilla review from 2014, I spoke of how it felt like a party where the main character (that would be the fire breathing title one) wasn’t invited until halfway through. You expected Godzilla to be there the whole time. That left a level of disappointment, but the Gareth Edwards reboot of the franchise was worth the wait in the end. The sequel Godzilla: King of the Monsters RSVP’s the main attraction early on and he brings some familiar friends to the shindig. That doesn’t make the party better.

Michael Dougherty takes over directorial duties in a follow-up that feels bigger with its sprawling cast and action sequences. It also feels more cluttered and more like a prelude to what’s coming next in the MonsterVerse (Godzilla vs. Kong). That’s not an issue shared by 2014’s predecessor. Monsters picks up five years after the events of Godzilla when the creature managed to save the world and leave some collateral damage. That includes the young son of biologist Dr. Emma Russell (Vera Farmiga) and animal behavioralist Mark (Kyle Chandler). The parents have reacted differently and separately from the tragedy. Dr. Emma still believes in Godzilla’s global saving abilities, but in a dangerous way that teams her with an ecoterrorist (Charles Dance). Mark’s grief is directed toward Godzilla. Daughter Madison (Millie Bobby Brown) is caught in the middle.

The family drama pits the estranged couple on opposites ends of the battle. More monsters are awoken from their slumber in various Monarch stations to wreak havoc. It results in the destruction of monuments in quite familiar Independence Day/Transformers style fashion. Toho stalwarts Rodan, Mothra, and King Ghidorah are the aforementioned party dwellers joining the fray. The big fights are shot in destinations where the forecast is either a downpour or so dark that it’s often frustratingly hard to tell what is happening.

In addition to the Russell family, lots of recognizable actors are left to mostly stand and gawk at the monstrous activity. The film does have the distinction of adding another performer to the trifecta of prominent N.W.A. members (speaking of monster verses!) from Straight Outta Compton. In Kong: Skull Island, we had Eazy-E (Jason Mitchell) and Dr. Dre (Corey Hawkins). Now we have O’Shea Jackson Jr. (who played his dad Ice Cube in Compton) as a soldier. David Strathairn, Sally Hawkins, and Ken Watanabe reprise their 2014 roles while Bradley Whitford, Thomas Middleditch, and Zhang Ziyi are fresh gawkers. There’s not really a human performance to highlight. Just as Bryan Cranston earned some rightful criticism for his wild overacting in Godzilla, here we have Kyle Chandler often speaking in an intense and earnest hoarse whisper that is perhaps more annoying.

There’s a brief middle section where Godzilla is given a unique wakeup call. It transpires underwater where we discover the iconic radioactive creature’s original habitat. I found this to be the most well-constructed and engaging sequence. It hints at ancient stories that would probably be cool to explore. This doesn’t last long and before we know it, we are back to the dimly lit and rain soaked above ground CG brawls. They’re occasionally fun, but they will fall straight outta mind in short order. Maybe King Kong getting in on this will brighten things up.

** (out of four)

For my Godzilla (2014) review, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/20/godzilla-2014-movie-review/

For my Kong: Skull Island review, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/11/kong-skull-island-movie-review/

Mank Review

David Fincher’s Mank is only about the making of one cinema’s greatest achievements Citizen Kane in a limited fashion. Its plot line is a disputed one in which the picture’s cowriter Herman J. Mankiewicz (Gary Oldman) takes the vast lions share of the credit for creating the masterpiece. This falls in direct contradiction with what some historians have said. There has been a decades long debate as to whether Mankiewicz or director/producer/star Orson Welles was the magic behind the scenes. And there’s no doubt that some viewers could be upset with what Mank is and is not about.

As for this viewer, I often marveled at it. This is David Fincher’s first feature in over six years and it’s a pleasure to have him back behind the camera. The screenplay is from the director’s late father. While it certainly falls more on the side of Mank being the force behind the landmark 1941 production, I found myself wrapped up in its stunning production values and dynamic performances. In other words, the debate of Kane‘s credit can be left to scholars. I was left mostly enthralled by the overall experience.

To say Mank is a movie for cinephiles is not inaccurate. A passing knowledge of the history of Citizen Kane is helpful. An understanding of California politics in the 1930s doesn’t hurt either. Oldman’s Mank is a rather young man when we first see him in 1940. The actor playing him is in his sixties while his subject is about 20 years younger. For those who believe that’s a stretch, I invite you to look at photos of Mankiewicz at that time period. He looked beyond his years due to severe alcoholism as he was climbing the Tinsel Town ladder with his brilliant words.

By 1940, he’s known around town as much for his boorish behavior as his screenplays. He’s laid up due to an auto accident when the new boy wonder from Hollywood Orson Welles (Tom Burke, nailing the legend’s vocal patterns) calls him with an offer. Mank gets working on a massive manuscript that draws on his past experiences. The caveat is that Mank will not receive credit for his contribution. The writer dictates his words to two assistants at a California ranch with his leg in cast. One is Rita Alexander (Lily Collins) and part of her duties is keeping Mank away from the hard liquor that serves as his liquid fuel. This job also falls to Orson’s right hand man John Houseman (Sam Troughton) and, less occasionally, to Mank’s wife (Tuppence Middleton). Everyone refers to her as “Poor Sara” (including her spouse) because just dealing with his personality is a full time occupation.

As he toils away at his pages, the flashbacks begin a decade earlier. In 1930, Mank makes the acquaintance of starlet Marion Davies (Amanda Seyfried). They hit it off and she soon brings him into the uber-wealthy universe of her older flame, newspaper magnate William Randolph Hearst (Charles Dance). Hearst takes a liking to our title subject partly because he’s good entertainment to be around and always has a witty quip at the ready.

In 1934, Mank’s connections with the titans of industry coincide with the political scene. The gubernatorial campaign of Upton Sinclair and his socialist Democratic policies has studio head Louis B. Mayer (Arliss Howard, in a memorable performance) spooked. Hollywood was far less liberal in these days, you see. MGM implements extraordinary measures to get their candidate elected and that involves their massive make believe factory usually dedicated to Civil War epics and Munchkins. Mank does not approve of these tactics that are ultimately green lit by Mr. Hearst.

These developments are what shape Mank’s screenplay years later as the characters in the eventual Kane treatment resemble both Hearst and Marion. Mank, more than anything, is about what drives the writing process. It’s about how one’s demons and one’s tragedies and shortcomings can result in something special on the page. As we watch the events unfold that result in Kane, we do so in sumptuous black and white with gorgeous cinematography from Erik Messerschmidt. Fincher has fashioned this to look like it was made in early 1940s and he certainly succeeds.

Mank is the latest reminder of Oldman’s ability to disappear into a performance. When he finally works up the nerve to (very) drunkenly confront Hearst at a lavish dinner party concerning the political drama, it’s a sight to behold. This is due to the acting of its lead, as well as Dance’s Hearst and Seyfried’s Marion. Any sequence with Mank and Marion is a fascinating one with their complicated relationship. It might be the most honest one he has.

Returning to historical accuracy, I’m reminded that it’s not particularly my business. Whether Mankiewicz or Welles raised Kane from the start is an enduring mystery. The director and his father present a side here. It’s certainly one Mank would cheers to. It is one that hardcore movie lovers also should.

***1/2 (out of four)

2020 Oscar Predictions: November 13th Edition

Back at it again with another round of weekly Oscar predictions and there are changes to be discussed in every major category! We begin with the grand prize – Best Picture. For the third week in a row, we have a new #1 as I’m elevating The Trial of the Chicago 7 to front runner status for the first time. It displaces Nomadland, which falls to 2nd position while Mank goes from 2nd to 3rd.

While Trial gets top billing, I am still placing David Fincher at #1 for director as I believe that could be a bit of a career achievement recognition. As stated last week, I do think Chloe Zhao could be hot on his heels. It does feel a bit strange to have Trial as the Picture favorite while not believing Aaron Sorkin will take Director, but here we are in this strange 2020 Oscar season. Speaking of that race, I now have Lee Isaac Chung for the fast rising Minari over Paul Greengrass for News of the World. 

Moving on, the review embargo lifted this week for Hillbilly Elegy and the results weren’t pretty. The Netflix title stands at just 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and that takes it out of my top 15 for Picture and top 10 in Adapted Screenplay. It also hurts the chances of its leads. Amy Adams drops out of the top 5 for Actress and that’s to the benefit of another Netflix entry with Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. Glenn Close has been listed at #1 in Supporting Actress since I began these posts in late August. This too has changed in a currently wide open Supporting Actress field. She drops from #1 to #4, but the irony is I still think she could win. However, it’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank that vaults to #1 with Olivia Colman (The Father) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) following. There’s another move in Supporting Actress with Yuh-Joun Youn for Minari in over Helena Zengel for News of the World. 

In Best Actor, it’s Riz Ahmed back in the final five and that takes out Kingsley Ben-Adir in One Night in Miami. In Supporting Actor, I have David Strathairn (Nomadland) back in the predicted quintet and that drops Bill Murray (On the Rocks) to sixth. And I am starting to buy into the theory that Chadwick Boseman could be victorious in that race for Da 5 Bloods with Anthony Hopkins a seeming favorite in Best Actor for The Father. Boseman is now #1 for supporting.

Finally, it was announced that Supernova will campaign Colin Firth for Best Actor with Stanley Tucci in supporting. They are both listed in the top ten, but I believe it’s Tucci that could potentially see a rise from his #8 spot.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 3)

2. Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. The Father (PR: 7)

6. Minari (PR: 8)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. News of the World (PR: 5)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Soul (PR: 12)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)

13. The White Tiger (PR: 14)

14. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)

15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hillbilly Elegy

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)

8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)

7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)

8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)

10. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

George Clooney, The Midnight Sky 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

5. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United State vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nicole Kidman, The Prom

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

3. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)

7. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Charles Dance, Mank 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Palm Springs

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 9)

9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hillbilly Elegy

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)

7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)

8. Connected (PR: 6)

9. Lupin III: The First (PR: 7)

10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)

2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)

3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)

4. Time (PR: 7)

5. The Dissident (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. Boys State (PR: 5)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

9. 76 Days (PR: 9)

10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. New Order (PR: 2)

3. Another Round (PR: 3)

4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)

5. The Disciple (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Little Sister (PR: 5)

7. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)

8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)

9. Charlatan (PR: Not Ranked)

10. True Mothers (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Atlantis

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 4)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rebecca (PR: 5)

7. News of the World (PR: 8)

8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Tenet (PR: 7)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 3)

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)

4. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

5. Mulan (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)

7. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

News of the World

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Soul (PR: 2)

3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

4. News of the World (PR: 3)

5. Minari (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

7. Tenet (PR: 4)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

9. Ammonite (PR: 5)

10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)

7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)

8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 8)

9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)

10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Mulan (PR: 3)

4. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Rebecca (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. News of the World (PR: 4)

9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 2)

3. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

5. Soul (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 3)

7. Greyhound (PR: 8)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Greyhound (PR: 3)

4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 4)

7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)

8. Mank (PR: 6)

9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)

10. Dolittle (PR: 10)

And that shakes out to these features nabbing the following number of nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

The Midnight Sky, Soul

3 Nominations

The Life Ahead, Mulan

2 Nominations

Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, New Order, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: November 6th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions begin with a blogger’s note. For the past two and a half months, I’ve been providing these updates each Thursday. This will now switch to every Friday (busy work schedule is the reason).

And we move on with a significant development in the rankings. For the first time since I began these predictions, the #1 slot for Best Picture is not named Mank. The David Fincher Netflix pic had its official review embargo lift today. Some of the critical reaction is excellent. Other write-ups, while still overwhelmingly positive, call into question whether this will take the biggest prize of all. It certainly still could in my estimation, but I’m currently giving an ever so slight advantage to Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland (and with The Trial of the Chicago 7 not far behind). I am still listing Fincher in top position with Director as I could envision a victory being a partial career achievement award. That said, Zhao is right on his heels as she would be the second female filmmaker ever to take the gold.

We continue to Best Actor as Amazon has confirmed the acting placements for the performers in Regina King’s One Night in Miami. Of note is that Kingsley Ben-Adir will be campaigned for in Best Actor with Leslie Odom Jr. vying for Supporting Actor. In my view, this increases the chances for both to make the cut as they won’t be competing against each other. Odom was already on my Supporting list last week. Ben-Adir jumps into the Actor final five and that’s to the detriment of Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. Kaluuya could absolutely still get in, but there’s uncertainty as to whether he will be campaigned for in Actor or Supporting Actor. There’s also no confirmation yet as to when Warner Bros. will release the picture. So for now, he’s on the outside looking in until further information is provided.

The Actress and Supporting Actress contests remain the same without even any ranking alterations. That’s not to indicate those races aren’t fluid. There just wasn’t anything major in the past week to shift my thinking in the past 8 days.

Finally, Disney has delayed the release dates of both Death on the Nile and Free Guy to 2021 TBD. The former was a potential nominee in several tech races such as Costume Design and Production Design. The latter could have been a hopeful in Visual Effects.

And with that, let’s get to the guesstimates!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

5. News of the World (PR: 4)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

7. The Father (PR: 7)

8. Minari (PR: 8)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

11. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)

12. Soul (PR: 12)

13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)

14. The White Tiger (PR: 14)

15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)

7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)

8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)

9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)

9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, Cherry

Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)

7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)

7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 9)

10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Best Actor)

Best Original Screenplay 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Soul (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)

8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Forty-Year-Old Version

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

9. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 4)

4. Onward (PR: 3)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Connected (PR: 6)

7. Lupin III: The First (PR: 8)

8. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)

2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)

3. Crip Camp (PR: 2)

4. The Dissident (PR: 5)

5. Boys State (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. Time (PR: 7)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)

9. 76 Days (PR: 8)

10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. New Order (PR: 2)

3. Another Round (PR: 3)

4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)

5. My Little Sister (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Disciple (PR: 6)

7. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)

8. True Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)

10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wife of a Spy

A Sun

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Tenet (PR: 6)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 5)

5. Rebecca (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)

8. News of the World (PR: 10)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Death on the Nile

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 4)

7. Tenet (PR: 6)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

3. Mank (PR: 6)

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)

5. Coming 2 America (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

7. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)

8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Mulan (PR: 7)

10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emma

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Soul (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Tenet (PR: 4)

5. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

7. Minari (PR: 5)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

One Night in Miami

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)

7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)

8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 10)

9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)

10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

3. Mulan (PR: 2)

4. News of the World (PR: 6)

5. Rebecca (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Tenet (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 6)

4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soul (PR: 4)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

8. Greyhound (PR: 8)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Invisible Man

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Greyhound (PR: 6)

4. Mulan (PR: 3)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)

9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)

10. Dolittle (PR: 9)

And this equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:

12 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

News of the World

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

Nomadland, One Night in Miami

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father

4 Nominations

Tenet

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul

2 Nominations

The Life Ahead, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Rebecca

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, My Little Sister, New Order, On the Rocks, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

Oscar Watch: Mank

For two months now, I have had David Fincher’s Mank ranked at the top of the Best Picture contenders and that was with zero buzz about its quality. Why? The biographical drama, which tells the saga of Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz (Gary Oldman) and his battles with the bottle and the making of the film, sounded like Oscar bait from its announcement. Fincher is, of course, a heralded filmmaker who’s seen two of his pictures (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network) nab Best Picture nods. Neither won, but many (including this blogger) feel that Network should have done so over The King’s Speech a decade ago.

Ahead of its November 13th limited theatrical bow and December 4th Netflix streaming debut, Mank screened for critics yesterday. While the official embargo has yet to lapse, reaction is out. And it confirms that Fincher’s first pic in six years (since Gone Girl) should score plenty of nominations. As I’ve estimated for several weeks, you would be smart to bet that this will receive the most mentions on nomination morning.

Let’s break them down. Picture and Director appear to be foregone conclusions at this juncture. Gary Oldman is highly likely to get his third Best Actor nomination. That said, after winning just three years ago for Darkest Hour, I don’t foresee a victory. On a side note, the Best Actress winner from 2017 (Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) also looks like a locked in nominee in 2020 for Nomadland. Amanda Seyfried appears poised for her first nomination in Supporting Actress in her role as Marion Davies. Supporting Actor is more murky. While Charles Dance as William Randolph Hearst could sneak in, the race is quite crowded. I wouldn’t count on Dance or costars Tom Pelphrey or Arliss Howard getting in over the considerable competition. Many come from the same streaming service like the cast of The Trial of the Chicago 7 (most notably Mark Rylance and Sacha Baron Cohen) and the late Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods. 

The screenplay is solely credited to the director’s deceased father Jack. An Original Screenplay nod is inevitable with the biggest competition so far being Aaron Sorkin for Trial. The tech race possibilities are plentiful: Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score (from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross), Sound, Makeup and Hairstyling. All in all, Mank could conceivably hit about a dozen nominations.

Now let’s get serious. Could it win Best Picture? Some early buzz suggests it might be too geared toward cinephiles and not a mass audience to achieve that. I’m not so sure. I would say the same could be said for recent winners like The Artist and Birdman. Hollywood loves features about its own industry and this might be the granddaddy of them all considering the subject matter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mank is still listed in first place when I update my guesstimates next Thursday. I am confident it will never fall below the upper echelon. As for Fincher, he may well be in line for a Director victory and that’s even if Mank doesn’t win the biggest prize. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2020 Oscar Predictions: October 29th Edition

As October comes to a close, the Aretha Franklin biopic elected to shift its release date to August 2021. That takes it out of contention for this Oscar season. I have had Jennifer Hudson’s performance as the iconic singer in my top five for a couple of weeks. Her departure makes way for Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit in the predicted group in a still crowded lead Actress field.

My shifts continue as, after putting Daniel Kaluuya’s work for Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting category, I’m putting him back in Best Actor. Hopefully Warner Bros. will clear this up soon as the pic still doesn’t have a firm release date. He enters the top five to the detriment of Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal.

His departure from Supporting Actor vaults Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7 to first position. It’s worth mentioning that Netflix has confirmed that the sprawling cast for Aaron Sorkin’s historical drama will all be campaigned for in that race. I have also swapped out Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami for his costar Leslie Odom, Jr. The changes continue as I’m now becoming more convinced that the late Chadwick Boseman will be a double nominee for both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in lead and for supporting with Da 5 Bloods. 

There’s also a switch in Supporting Actress as I’m taking out Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) and replacing her with Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman. 

All these changes and more are below with my latest round of Thursday predictions!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

7. The Father (PR: 6)

8. Minari (PR: 9)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

12. Soul (PR: 11)

13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)

14. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Respect

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)

7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

9. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)

10. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Stanley Tucci, Supernova

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)

7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 9)

8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary J. Blige, Respect

Audra McDonald, Respect

Swankie, Nomadland

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 7)

10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Best Actor)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. Soul (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. The-Forty-Year-Old-Version (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Palm Springs

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

9. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

First Cow

Next Goal Wins 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Onward (PR: 4)

4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Connected (PR: 6)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)

8. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Earwig and the Witch

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)

2. Crip Camp (PR: 3)

3. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)

4. Boys State (PR: 4)

5. The Dissident (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. Time (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 76 Days (PR: 8)

9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)

10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

I Am Greta

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. New Order (PR: 3)

3. Another Round (PR: 2)

4. The Life Ahead (PR: 7)

5. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Disciple (PR: 6)

7. My Little Sister (PR: 4)

8. Wife of a Spy (PR: 10)

9. A Sun (PR: 9)

10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

One Night in Miami

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Death on the Nile (PR: 9)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)

8. Rebecca (PR: 6)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 4)

4. News of the World (PR: 3)

5. The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 9)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR 10)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)

3. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mank (PR: 4)

7. Mulan (PR: 7)

8. Emma (PR: 3)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Respect

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Death on the Nile

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 4)

3. News of the World (PR: 2)

4. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

10. Ammonite (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Over the Moon

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. ” Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)

7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)

9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)

10. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Carried Me with You” from Onward

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Mulan (PR: 4)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

4. Rebecca (PR: 7)

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 2)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Emma

Death on the Nile 

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 4)

3. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 5)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 2)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Greyhound (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. The Invisible Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Respect

The Prom

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Mulan (PR: 4)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greyhound (PR: 3)

7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)

8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)

9. Dolittle (PR: 9)

10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)

And this equates to the following pictures getting these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Tenet

2 Nominations

Birds of Prey, Coming 2 America, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, New Order, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: October 22nd Edition

The big news of the week when it comes to Oscar forecasting unquestionably involves Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, the forthcoming Netflix feature starring Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman. The studio has confirmed that the late Mr. Boseman will contend in the lead actor race and that upends my predictions in both that category and Supporting Actor. For weeks, I have had Boseman listed in 1st position in the latter. He now moves to #2 in lead behind Anthony Hopkins in The Father. 

This significant move shifts my thinking when it comes to other performers. Most notably, I am now guesstimating that Warner Bros. will campaign for Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting field. To be clear, this is not confirmed and is simply speculation. However, that alteration means Kaluuya is now listed in first for Supporting Actor. This activity also means Boseman could potentially be a double nominee as Netflix is likely to mount a campaign for him with Da 5 Bloods in supporting. I have not listed him in the top ten, but it could certainly happen. The same dynamic applies to Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In the coming weeks, we will see if Boseman and Turman materialize in the top ten Supporting Actor players.

While the Actor derbies see those changes (which include Bill Murray now making the cut in Supporting Actor for On the Rocks, out tomorrow on Apple TV), Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress have remained the same.

And with that, let’s see how I have each contest shaping up!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. The Father (PR: 7)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

11. Soul (PR: 11)

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)

13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)

14. Respect (PR: 14)

15. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)

5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)

10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, The Prom

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)

9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 9)

10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

George Clooney, The Midnight Sky

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 8)

9. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)

2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

7. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – moved to Best Actor

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)

10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Respect

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

8. First Cow (PR: 9)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Connected (PR: 6)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Lupin III: The First (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Trolls World Tour

Bombay Rose

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)

2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)

3. Crip Camp (PR: 1)

4. Boys State (PR: 5)

5. The Dissident (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)

8. 76 Days (PR: 8)

9. I Am Greta (PR: Not Ranked)

10. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Welcome to Chechnya

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. Another Round (PR: 2)

3. New Order (PR: 3)

4. My Little Sister (PR: 9)

5. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Disciple (PR: 5)

7. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)

9. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wife of a Spy (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Atlantis

Ema 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 8)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rebecca (PR: 6)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

News of the World

Ammonite

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 5)

4. Nomadland (PR: 3)

5. The Father (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

9. Tenet (PR: 10)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

2. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)

3. Emma (PR: 8)

4. Mank (PR: 2)

5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

7. Mulan (PR: 6)

8. Respect (PR: 7)

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

4. Mank (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Over the Moon (PR: 10)

7. Ammonite (PR: 5)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tenet

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)

3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)

5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)

8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)

9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)

10. “Carry Me with You” from Onward (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

“Love Myself” from The High Note

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. Rebecca (PR: 5)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Hillbilly Elegy

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 2)

3. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

4. Mank (PR: 7)

5. Soul (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

7. Greyhound (PR: 4)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. Respect (PR: 9)

10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Greyhound (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)

7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)

8. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)

9. Dolittle (PR: 9)

10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)

And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

9 Nominations

News of the World

8 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

6 Nominations

Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Mulan

2 Nominations

Coming 2 America, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: October 15th Edition

The weekly Oscar predictions keep coming as developments from the past 7 days have altered a couple of key races. Most prominent is Best Actress, a potentially crowded field that saw the debut of French Exit with Michelle Pfeiffer. The pic debuted to mixed reviews though critics did praise her work. That said, she moves out of the top 5 and so does Kate Winslet in Ammonite. The two new performers joining the final five: Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy and Jennifer Hudson in Respect. 

Speaking of Elegy, the Netflix drama debuted its first trailer this week. Reaction was mixed, but it looks to me that Glenn Close especially solidified her status as a front runner in Supporting Actress.

In Best Actor, there’s movement as well since Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal seems to be gaining steam. He moves into the top five with Tom Hanks in News of the World dropping out. And there’s changes in Supporting Actor where we’re still waiting for category placement to be determined. I moved Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) back to Supporting and he knocks out Yahya Abdul-Mateen II from The Trial of the Chicago 7. 

Lastly, Pixar’s Soul had its review embargo lifted prior to its Christmas streaming release. Feedback is very solid with some critics proclaiming it’s in the upper echelon on the studio’s work. It could become the fourth animated feature to get a Best Picture nod. For now, I’m saying it’s definitely the heavy favorite to win Animated Feature but it could miss the cut in the biggest race of all.

And with that, the updates are below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

7. The Father (PR: 7)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

11. Soul (PR: 10)

12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)

13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Respect (PR: 14)

15. Ammonite (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

The White Tiger

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)

5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Supporting Actor)

Matt Damon, Stillwater

Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 5)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 10)

8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Collins, Mank

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)

8. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Tom Pelphrey, Mank

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Soul (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. Respect (PR: 9)

9. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Stillwater

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

French Exit

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Connected (PR: 7)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

8. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)

10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Earwig and the Witch

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)

2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)

3. Totally Under Control (PR: 7)

4. The Dissident (PR: 5)

5. Boys State (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 6)

8. 76 Days (PR: 8)

9. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)

10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Notturno 

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. Another Round (PR: 2)

3. New Order (PR: 3)

4. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)

5. The Disciple (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wife of a Spy (PR: 7)

7. Atlantis (PR: 9)

8. Ema (PR: Not Ranked)

9. My Little Sister (PR: 6)

10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

A Sun

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

8. Tenet (PR: 6)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 8)

5. Mulan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)

7. News of the World (PR: 4)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Death on the Nile

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 7)

5. News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

10. Tenet (PR: 10)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 3)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 4)

7. Respect (PR: 6)

8. Emma (PR: 9)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 2)

2. News of the World (PR: 3)

3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Mank (PR: 1)

5. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

9. Tenet (PR: 9)

10. Over the Moon (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Minari

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)

3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)

4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)

5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)

8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)

10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“Seen” from The Life Ahead

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. Rebecca (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

7. Ammonite (PR: 8)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Judas and and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Death on the Nile

The Midnight Sky

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 3)

3. Soul (PR: 2)

4. Greyhound (PR: 6)

5. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

7. Mank (PR: 4)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

9. Respect (PR: 9)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Greyhound (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)

8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)

9. Dolittle (PR: 10)

10. The Old Guard (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Free Guy 

And that means I am estimating the following movies end up with these numbers:

11 Nominations

Mank

9 Nominations

News of the World

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

Nomadland, One Night in Miami

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan

2 Nominations

Ammonite, Coming 2 America, Greyhound, Minari, Over the Moon, Sound of Metal, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, Giving Voice, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: October 8th Edition

As much as I want to predict Mel Gibson’s Santa Claus revenge tale Fatman in all categories based on its bonkers trailer, I shall refrain. However, there is more news to be discussed in my latest round of Oscar predictions.

Speaking of trailers, we got our first looks at two major contenders this week: David Fincher’s Mank (still holding in 1st place in Picture and Director and more) and News of the World from Paul Greengrass (with an impressive 10 predictions). Mank, by the way, leads all contenders with 12 and that takes over last week’s leader The Trial of the Chicago 7. 

We also learned that Dune and No Time to Die have officially moved out of contention due to release date changes. I had Dune down for 8 nominations last week. I also listed the theme song from No Time to Die (performed by Billie Eilish) in first place for Original Song. These drops are reflected below.

Other developments:

  • Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress remain unchanged. I will note that French Exit will screen this weekend for critics and we will have a better idea as to Michelle Pfeiffer’s viability and if it could be a contender in other categories.
  • While Supporting Actor stays intact, I have moved Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank in the Supporting Actress five over Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman. 

With that, let’s get to the latest guesstimates!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

7. The Father (PR: 7)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Soul (PR: 10)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)

13. Ammonite (PR: 14)

14. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The White Tiger (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

9. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)

10. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 9)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 8)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Abigail Breslin, Stillwater

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)

7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)

8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 8)

10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 5)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

5. Soul (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)

8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Stillwater (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

C’Mon C’Mon

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

8. French Exit (PR: 10)

9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Over the Moon (PR: 2)

3. Wolfwalkers (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Predicted Nominees:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Connected (PR: 7)

8. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)

10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rumble

Ride Your Wave

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)

2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)

3. Boys State (PR: 2)

4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)

5. The Dissident (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

7. Totally Under Control (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)

9. MLK/FBI (PR: 7)

10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spaceship Earth

John Lewis: Good Trouble

Miss Americana

On the Record 

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. Another Round (PR: 6)

3. New Order (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

5. The Disciple (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Little Sister (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wife of a Spy (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Atlantis (PR: 5)

10. A Sun (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ema

The Life Ahead

Young Ahmed

Memory House 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 10)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Ammonite

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 10)

8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)

9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ammonite (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 4)

4. News of the World (PR: 3)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

7. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

10. Tenet (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Mank (PR: 1)

4. Mulan (PR: 5)

5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

9. Emma (PR: 8)

10, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

No Time to Die

Wonder Woman 1984

Ammonite

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Soul (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 6)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

7. Over the Moon (PR: 9)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

9. Tenet (PR: 10)

10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 7)

3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)

5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 3)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 6)

9. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 8)

10. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 3)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

7. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Ammonite (PR: 6)

9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

One Night in Miami

Tenet

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. Soul (PR: 3)

3. News of the World (PR: 7)

4. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Respect (PR: 5)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

The Invisible Man

No Time to Die

Wonder Woman 1984

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 2)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Greyhound (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 6)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)

8. Birds of Prey (PR: 10)

9. Free Guy (PR: 9)

10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Wonder Woman 1984

No Time to Die

That equates to the following numbers of nominations for features:

12 Nominations

Mank

10 Nominations

News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

6 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

The Father, Mulan, Soul

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet

1 Nomination

Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Giving Voice, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: October 1st Edition

As October begins, my weekly Oscar predictions get a major expansion as I am now including all categories covering feature length films! Additionally, I’m dwindling the listed prospects in all the top races. For Best Picture, it goes from 25 to 15. The directing, acting, and screenplay contests drop from 15 to 10. This is why you’ll see so many movies dropping out of contention.

Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch is rumored to be moving from the 2020 window. While this has yet to be confirmed, I have taken it out of the running at this time. Obviously once its release date is announced, I’ll adjust accordingly.

For the tech races and Animated Feature, International Film, and Documentary Feature – I’ve definitely learned that these estimates will be fluid over the next months. This is just a first glimpse at where my head’s at.

As for developments in the significant categories:

  • Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari makes it debut in my nine predicted Picture nominees and that takes out Pixar’s Soul (which is listed #1 in Animated Feature). The directing players remain the same.
  • I have switched Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami from Supporting Actor to lead. He makes the five and that drops Tom Hanks in News of the World. The Best Actress estimates remain.
  • The Supporting Actress nominees also stay intact. However, Ben-Adir’s shift in Supporting Actor means I am now including three actors from The Trial of the Chicago 7: Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Sacha Baron Cohen. I’m not at all confident this happens, but it’s where I am at the moment. I now have Leslie Odom, Jr. as the representative from One Night in Miami in the race. Lakeith Stanfield moves away from the top five.
  • There are no changes in the screenplay predictions.

As a bonus, I am including how many nominees from my initial full predictions in 2019 ended up getting nominated in each race to give you an idea of historical accuracy. I will note that I didn’t expand my estimates last year until October 17th, so I did have a bit more to go on.

And with all that, let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

7. The Father (PR: 6)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. Minari (PR: 12)

Other Possibilities:

10. Soul (PR: 9)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

12. Dune (PR: 10)

13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)

14. Ammonite (PR: 16)

15. The White Tiger (PR: 14)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 8/9

Dropped Out:

The French Dispatch

Stillwater

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Respect

The Midnight Sky

Annette

Next Goal Wins

Red, White and Water

C’Mon C’Mon

French Exit 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 11)

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

10. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy 

Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger

Tom McCarthy, Stillwater

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)

5. Michele Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)

10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Dropped Out:

Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman

Marion Cotillard, Annette

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR 2)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 5)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)

8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 6)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Dropped Out:

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Courier

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Adam Driver, Annette

Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)

7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 14)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 8)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

Dropped Out:

Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

Mary J. Blige, Respect

Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon

Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

4. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)

7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

8. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 9)

9. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 12)

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 11)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Lead Actor)

Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Richard Jenkins, The Humans

Tom Burke, Mank

Charles Dance, Mank 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Soul (PR: 3)

5. Minari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Rocks (PR: 11)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Ammonite (PR: 9)

9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)

10. Stillwater (PR: 8)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Dropped Out:

The French Dispatch

Respect

Pieces of a Woman

Red, White and Water

Never Rarely Sometimes Always 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

5. News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Dune (PR: 8)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)

10. French Exit (PR: 10)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Dropped Out:

The White Tiger

Next Goal Wins

The Humans

First Cow

The Midnight Sky

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul 

2. Over the Moon

3. Wolfwalkers

4. Onward

5. The Croods: A New Age

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys

7. Connected

8. Rumble

9. Trolls World Tour

10. Ride Your Wave

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Crip Camp

2. Boys State

3. All In: The Fight for Democracy

4. Dick Johnson is Dead

5. Spaceship Earth

Other Possibilities:

6. John Lewis: Good Trouble

7. MLK/FBI

8. The Truffle Hunters

9. Miss Americana

10. On the Record

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida?

2. The Disciple

3. Night of the Kings

4. Ema

5. Atlantis

Other Possibilities:

6. Another Round

7. The Life Ahead

8. Young Ahmed

9. A Sun

10. Memory House 

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank

2. Nomadland

3. News of the World

4. Dune

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods

7. One Night in Miami

8. Judas and the Black Messiah

9. Ammonite

10. Tenet

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank 

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Emma

4. Dune

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Other Possibilities:

6. Coming 2 America

7. Ammonite

8. News of the World

9. Mulan

10. The Personal History of David Copperfield

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Nomadland

5. Dune

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods

7. One Night in Miami

8. Tenet

9. Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank

2. Dune

3. Birds of Prey

4. Coming 2 America

5. Mulan

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. No Time to Die

8. Emma

9. Wonder Woman 1984

10. Ammonite

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank

2. Soul

3. Da 5 Bloods

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Dune

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World

7. The Midnight Sky

8. One Night in Miami

9. Over the Moon

10. Tenet

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

2. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan

3. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

Other Possibilities:

6. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

7. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon

8. “Carried Me with You” from Onward

9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice

10. “See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank

2. Dune

3. News of the World

4. Mulan

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Other Possibilities:

6. Ammonite

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. One Night in Miami

9. Tenet

10. Judas and the Black Messiah

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet

2. Dune

3. Soul

4. Sound of Metal

5. Respect

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invisible Man

7. News of the World

8. No Time to Die

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. Wonder Woman 1984

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: N/A – CATEGORY WAS SPLIT BETWEEN SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING

 

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune

2. Tenet

3. Greyhound

4. Wonder Woman 1984

5. The Invisible Man

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan

7. The Call of the Wild

8. No Time to Die

9. Free Guy

10. Birds of Prey

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

And that gives us our first breakdown of how many nominations I believe we will see for each picture:

12 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

10 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Dune

7 Nominations

News of the World

6 Nominations

Nomadland, One Night in Miami

5 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Soul

2 Nominations

Ammonite, Minari, Mulan, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Atlantis, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson is Dead, The Disciple, Ema, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Miss Americana, Night of the Kings, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Sound of Metal, Spaceship Earth, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

Back at it next week, folks!