Tag: Aaron Sorkin

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Best Picture 2020: The Final Five

    We have reached 2020 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

    What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

    2020 is a tricky year to consider. As we all know, it was a year dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us were working from home and theaters were essentially shuttered for the majority of the year.

    Beyond the challenging, tragic, and unprecedented news events of 2020, it was just a strange year for motion pictures. Eight pictures contended for the big prize. I have the leading nominee (with 10) missing the BP cut. The next most nominated film had 6 mentions… and there’s 6 of them. The other BP contender had 5.

    My point? Whittling these 8 down to 5 is not easy. Considering it took BP, Director (Chloe Zhao, the second female ever to win), and Actress (Frances McDormand), we can safely reserve a spot for Nomadland. As for the rest? Let’s get into it!

    The Father

    Florian Zeller’s devastasting drama about Alzheimer’s missed a nod in Director, but Anthony Hopkins landed his second Actor statue over the late Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, who was the frontrunner. Zeller did win Adapted Screenplay and this was also up for Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Film Editing, and Production Design.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes. Its two wins not only give me confidence of its inclusion in a quintet, but it could be argued this was runner-up to Nomadland.

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Daniel Kaluuya won Supporting Actor for his performance as Fred Hampton in Shaka King’s historical drama. Costar Lakeith Stanfield was up in the same race and it was nominated for Original Screenplay and Cinematography. A second statue was given to H.E.R. for her original song “Fight for You”.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No but I certainly struggled with this one. The lack of directing and editing noms have it on the outside looking in.

    Mank

    This is where it gets complicated. David Fincher’s jaded Netflix aired look at Old Hollywood easily led the program with 10 mentions and it won Cinematography and Production Design. Fincher was also in contention for his behind the camera work. Other nods went to Gary Oldman for Actor, Amanda Seyfried in Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Sound.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Surprisingly enough… I’m saying no. Despite the haul, it is the only one of the 8 nominees not up for screenplay. Furthermore the Film Editing omission feels significant. It certainly isn’t normal to project the leader not making the final five. However, rules are meant to be broken.

    Minari

    Lee Isaac Chung also garnered a directing spot in that quintet while Youn yuh-Jung was the Supporting Actress recipient in this family drama. Other nods: Actor (Steven Yeun), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes though I went back and forth. This seemed to gather strength as the season wore on and not just with yuh-Jung. I think it squeaks in.

    Promising Young Woman

    Emerald Fennell was up for director and won Adapted Screenplay for this revenge dramedy. Carey Mulligan made the Actress cut (and may have been second to McDormand) and it was in for Film Editing.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes. The victory in Adapted Screenplay over four other BP hopefuls helps solidify that decision.

    Sound of Metal

    The impressive haul for the indie drama is Riz Ahmed in Actor, Paul Raci in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and wins in Film Editing and Sound.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes though I again went back and forth. While director Darius Marder was left out, it’s the Editing and Sound combo that give it an edge over the three that got left out.

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    7‘s six nods came (in addition to BP) in Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Song. The Aaron Sorkin political drama is the only BP vier not to take home a single trophy.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No though I struggled again. This Netflix pic undoubtedly didn’t match awards expectations after it was once seen as the on paper favorite. The 0 for 6 performance make it easier to elevate some of the others.

    And there you have it. That means my 2020 vision of the Final Five is:

    The Father

    Minari

    Nomadland

    Promising Young Woman

    Sound of Metal

    2021 will be be up soon! If you missed my entries covering 2009-19, you can find them here:

    Best Picture 2009: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2010: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2011: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2012: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2013: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2014: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2015: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2016: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2017: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2018: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2019: The Final Five

    Oscars 2021: The Case of Javier Bardem

    Javier Bardem’s performance as Desi Arnaz in Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos is my first  Case Of post for the five Best Actor candidates.

    The Case for Javier Bardem:

    Nabbing his fourth nomination (and third in lead), the Supporting Actor winner for No Country for Old Men also picked up Golden Globe and SAG mentions.

    The Case Against Javier Bardem:

    The only nominations for Ricardos came in the acting races (alongside his costars Nicole Kidman and J.K. Simmons). It’s Kidman who easily stands the best chance after taking the Globe. Bardem’s slot in the competition was generally seen as the fifth one since Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington were seen as strong likelihoods.

    Previous Nominations: 3

    Before Night Falls (2000 – Actor); No Country for Old Men (2007 – Supporting Actor, WON); Biutiful (2010 – Actor)

    The Verdict:

    While he’s done well in precursors, Bardem stands little chance at picking up a second statue.

    My Case Of posts will continue with the Supporting Actress hopefuls and that begins with Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter…

    2021 PGA and DGA Nominations Reaction

    Two major Oscar precursors dropped today and it’s a good day to be the Ricardos as Aaron Sorkin’s Lucy and Desi pic make the PGA’s top ten cut, as did Netflix’s musical Tick, Tick… Boom!

    Here are your 10 PGA nominees:

    Being the Ricardos

    Belfast

    CODA

    Don’t Look Up

    Dune

    King Richard

    Licorice Pizza

    The Power of the Dog

    Tick, Tick… Boom!

    West Side Story

    That means I went 8 out of 10 for my projections. The general thinking (and one that I shared) is that 8 pictures were safe: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story. That turned out to be accurate.

    The real battle was for the last 2 spots and they went to Ricardos and Boom! PGA has a history of nominating moneymakers and that’s why I chose No Time to Die to make the list (others were putting Spider-Man: No Way Home in the mix). Neither did so and that might end discussions on whether either of them could make it  with the Academy.

    I also had House of Gucci getting in and its PGA omission decreases its viability in the Oscar BP derby. Other notables to miss include Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, and The Tragedy of Macbeth. 

    Truth be told – the PGA lineup could easily be the Oscar one. However, that is hardly ever the case and we’ll see how it shakes out when I update my predictions tomorrow.

    It’s also true that the five contenders in the Directors Guild Awards rarely match the Oscars (usually it’s 4 out of five). My quintet of Academy hopefuls has stayed steady over recent weeks: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (Wet Side Story), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).

    And that’s exactly the lineup that DGA revealed today. I went 4 of 5 because I had Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) in over Anderson. A DGA nod could have helped others on the outside looking in like Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) or Joel Coen (Macbeth).

    As I explained in my predictions yesterday, you have to go back to 2009 for the last year in which DGA/Oscar matched in Best Director. It could absolutely happen in 2021 and, unlike PGA, I may continue to project it that way.

    As mentioned, look for my penultimate 2021 Oscar updates tomorrow!

    2021 Golden Globe Winner Predictions

    I’m used to saying the Golden Globes will air Sunday evening, but that’s not the case in 2022. The ceremony honoring the best of 2021 will come to us in an as yet undetermined format. This is due to various controversies brought to light recently about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and NBC’s decision not to broadcast the show.

    However, the show will go on (possibly streaming on your computer) and the Globes still serve as a barometer for what Oscar voters could be thinking in coming weeks. That said, the HFPA is certainly capable of providing surprises. Just last year, Andra Day’s victory in Best Actress (Drama) for The United States vs. Billie Holiday and Jodie Foster as Supporting Actress for The Mauritanian were legitimate upsets.

    As a reminder, the Globes split their picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy though not with the supporting derbies or screenplay. I will be making my picks along with runner-up selections while also providing numbers showing the correlation of Globe winners to Oscar recipients in each respective category for the last ten years.

    Let’s get to it!

    Best Motion Picture (Drama)

    Nominees:

    Belfast

    CODA

    Dune

    King Richard

    The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner: Belfast

    Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 4 out of last 10 years

    Commentary: The HFPA competition for the drama prize is the first major showdown between Oscar frontrunners Belfast and The Power of the Dog. With the international flavor and feel good vibes of the former, I’m picking Kenneth Branagh’s coming-of-age drama to come out ahead. If there’s a shocker in store, it could be CODA (which seems to picking up more steam on a weekly basis).

    I will admit that picking Belfast to win Drama and take no other awards (as you’ll see below) feels strange. There is recent precedent, however, with 2016’s Moonlight. 

    Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

    Nominees:

    Cyrano

    Don’t Look Up

    Licorice Pizza

    Tick, Tick… Boom!

    West Side Story

    Predicted Winner: West Side Story

    Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner ratio: 2 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: I wouldn’t count out Licorice Pizza but its miss in Best Director could be telling. West Side Story should be right up HFPA’s alley and its the only feature where its maker made the director cut.

    Best Director

    Nominees:

    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

    Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

    Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune

    Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

    Runner-Up: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: This is a tough one. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nod for The Lost Daughter was unexpected and she’s the only contender that I feel stands no chance of winning. Branagh could certainly ride a wave of Belfast love. Villeneuve could be honored for the technical mastery of Dune. And Campion is the hopeful picking up the bulk of critics prizes. Yet I’ll go with the HFPA honoring the legendary Spielberg.

    Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actress)

    Nominees:

    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

    Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

    Kristen Stewart, Spencer

    Predicted Winner: Kristen Stewart, Spencer

    Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: This is the first test to see whether Stewart really is the frontrunner that could sweep through the season. I’m skeptical and I honestly believe any of the performers could take this (I struggled to pick the runner-up as it could be any of them). I wouldn’t put money on it, but I’ll say Stewart manages to nab the crown.

    Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actor)

    Nominees:

    Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

    Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

    Will Smith, King Richard

    Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard

    Runner-Up: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: As you can see, this is a rather reliable predictor of where the Academy could go. For 2021’s features, the ceremonies should boil down to Smith v. Cumberbatch. I don’t think HFPA will pass up a chance to honor one of cinema’s most durable draws for the last 25 years in one of his most acclaimed performances.

    Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actress)

    Nominees:

    Marion Cotillard, Annette

    Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

    Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

    Emma Stone, Cruella

    Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

    Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Cruella

    Runner-Up: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 3 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: There was an upset last year when Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) emerged over the favored Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. The West Side love extending to Zegler is probably the smartest pick to make. Alana Haim’s work in Pizza could deliver her a victory and she probably should be listed as the runner-up. Yet if there’s any upset, I could see Stone surprising and there’s almost always one during the Globes. Perhaps against my better judgment, I’m going with it.

    Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actor)

    Nominees:

    Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

    Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

    Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!

    Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

    Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

    Predicted Winner: Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!

    Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 1 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: Dinklage is a threat though I’ll go with DiCaprio as the runner-up since he’s arguably the biggest star in Hollywood. That said, Garfield (he’s likely #3 in the Oscar contest at the moment) is the most likely winner.

    Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actress)

    Nominees:

    Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

    Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

    Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

    Ruth Negga, Passing

    Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

    Runner-Up: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: Jodie Foster’s win for 2020 came out of nowhere so who really knows? I’ll go with a West Side pick and DeBose. Other than Negga, I could foresee any of these candidates making (theoretical) podium trips.

    Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actor)

    Nominees:

    Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

    Jamie Dornan, Belfast

    Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

    Troy Kotsur, CODA

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: Another tricky one in a race where the Globes and Academy typically match. Assuming the Belfast boys split and Affleck isn’t a factor, this comes down to Smit-McPhee vs. Kotsur. A win for either could propel them to a glorious season ahead. I’m really tempted to go with Kotsur, but I’ll say this marks the best opportunity for HFPA to bestow an honor for Dog. This is a coin flip.

    Best Screenplay

    Nominees:

    Being the Ricardos

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    Licorice Pizza

    The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner: Licorice Pizza

    Runner-Up: Belfast

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 5 out of the last 10 years (counting both Original and Adapted Screenplays at the Oscars)

    Commentary: Your guess is as good as mine here. I’m going with a bit of an upset with Pizza, but the smart money is probably on Belfast or Dog. I also wouldn’t count out Aaron Sorkin for Ricardos (he took this category last year for The Trial of the Chicago 7). And Adam McKay could be called up for Don’t Look Up which (despite its mixed reviews) is drawing plenty of ink.

    Best Animated Feature

    Nominees:

    Encanto

    Flee

    Luca

    My Sunny Maad

    Raya and the Last Dragon

    Predicted Winner: Encanto

    Runner-Up: Flee

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last years

    Commentary: The Globes are capable of unexpected picks here (2019’s Missing Link for example). Don’t be surprised if Flee from Iran gets this, but I’ll go with Disney’s likeliest hopeful of its trio of nominees and that’s Encanto.

    Best Foreign Language Film

    Nominees:

    Compartment No. 6

    Drive My Car

    The Hand of God

    A Hero

    Parallel Mothers

    Predicted Winner: Drive My Car

    Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: Watch out for Mothers to pull off an upset, but this is Drive My Car‘s race to lose. The Japanese drama has established itself as the frontrunner in international competitions at all ceremonies.

    Best Original Score

    Nominees:

    Dune

    Encanto

    The French Dispatch

    Parallel Mothers

    The Power of the Dog

    Predicted Winner: Dune

    Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: Another race that Mothers could unexpectedly take, I also wouldn’t discount Dispatch or Dog. This should be Dune‘s best opportunity to take a prize though.

    Best Original Song

    Nominees:

    “Be Alive” from King Richard

    “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

    “Down to Joy” from Belfast

    “Here I Am” from Respect

    “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

    Predicted Winner: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

    Runner-Up: “Be Alive” from King Richard

    Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years

    Commentary: This should be the battle of Billie (Eilish) for “Die” vs. Beyonce (it’s just Beyonce) for “Alive” and that should be the dynamic for the Oscars. The HFPA has honored the last two Bond themes for Skyfall and Spectre. I’ll give it a very slight edge.

    And there you have it! The Golden Globes will air, err happen, Sunday. I’ll have reaction up on the blog shortly thereafter.

    2021 Oscar Predictions: December 7th Edition

    ***Blogger’s Update (12/07): As I was putting the finishing touches on this update, the Don’t Look Up review embargo ended and its RT score as of this writing is 58%. That means it’s falling out in multiple races including Best Picture. Tick Tick Boom! is the beneficiary in the big race. A Hero rises in Original Screenplay.

    For quite some time, I’ve had a nagging feeling that an early year festival favorite might manage to make its way to the ten Best Picture nominees. That trio of pictures is CODA, Flee, and Mass. I have held off putting any in the final predicted ten, but that changes today with CODA. It’s a feel good entry that could get enough support to get in. By doing so, it knocks out Being the Ricardos. The Lucy and Desi tale from Aaron Sorkin had its official review embargo lift today and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 67%. The showbiz theme and Sorkin devotees could still sneak it in, but it drops from Picture and Original Screenplay for now. Nicole Kidman stays in Actress, but falls from 2nd to 4th place.

    Other changes in the main races:

      • Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) is back in the Actress fold and I’ve finally taken out Jennifer Hudson for Respect. 
      • Troy Kotsur gets the CODA bump in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Richard Jenkins (The Humans).
      • Ricardos being out of Original Screenplay helps out C’Mon C’Mon. 
      • In Adapted Screenplay, it’s CODA in and Nightmare Alley out. I am continuing to keep Nightmare in the BP bunch yet it’s tenuous in 10th position.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

    2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

    6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. CODA (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 13) (+4)

    10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-5)

    13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-4)

    14. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. House of Gucci (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Lost Daughter

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)

    8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)

    9. Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

    Pablo Larrain, Spencer

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities: 

    6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (+2)

    5. A Hero (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Mass (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Parallel Mothers

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. CODA (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Humans (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Tick Tick Boom! 

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Vivo (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Drive My Car (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)

    7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Attica (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Procession (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. President (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Ascension (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

    10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Cyrano

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

    2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Being the Ricardos

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E))

    4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. King Richard (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    House of Gucci

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Spencer (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Suicide Squad

    Licorice Pizza

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen 

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)

    3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Spencer (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Belfast (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    House of Gucci 

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)

    9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. King Richard (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Last Duel

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Finch (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Free Guy (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nightmare Alley

    And that shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune

    10 Nominations

    Belfast

    9 Nominations

    West Side Story

    8 Nominations

    The Power of the Dog

    6 Nominations

    King Richard, Nightmare Alley

    5 Nominations

    Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    3 Nominations

    CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick Boom!

    2 Nominations

    Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, A Hero, The Lost Daughter

    1 Nomination

    Attica, Being the Ricardos, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World

    Oscar Predictions: Being the Ricardos

    Nicole Kidman and Aaron Sorkin could be in line for their respective fifth acting and writing nods at the Oscars with Being the Ricardos. The biopic, out December 10 in limited fashion before its Amazon Prime premiere December 21, centers on Kidman’s Lucille Ball and Javier Bardem’s Desi.

    After generating some casting controversy ink for its leads, an early screening this weekend has been met with positive social media reaction. It indicates Kidman has a better chance at making the top five in Best Actress than I originally anticipated. If so, this would mark her fifth nod overall after winning 19 years ago for The Hours (the others were in lead with Moulin Rouge! and Rabbit Hole and supporting for Lion).

    Bardem’s inclusion could be a less likely scenario though not impossible if voters fall hard for the pic. A Supporting Actor victor for 2007’s No Country for Old Men, he’s a two-time Actor contestant with Before Nights Falls and Biutiful. 

    In a Supporting Actor race that’s seemingly wide open, J.K. Simmons (playing William Frawley) could be back seven years after his gold statue for Whiplash. Same goes for Nina Arianda’s Vivian Vance though it is worth noting there’s several viable possibilities in Supporting Actress.

    As for the writer/director, I’d say Sorkin’s original screenplay has a far better shot at making it than his behind the camera work. That’s similar to his trajectory last year when his penmanship of The Trial of the Chicago 7 received a nomination. He’s thrice been up before with his screenplays for The Social Network (where he won), Moneyball, and Molly’s Game. 

    Last and certainly not least, the Academy often falls for fare about its own industry and a Best Picture nod is not out of the question. I’ve yet to list Ricardos in my top 15. Look for that to change on Thursday when I update and you can certainly anticipate its quartet of actors to rise. My Oscar Predictions for the films of 2021 will continue…

    Oscars 2020: The Case of Sacha Baron Cohen

    Sacha Baron Cohen’s work as antiwar activist Abbie Hoffman in Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 is my first Case Of post for the five contenders in Best Supporting Actor:

    The Case for Sacha Baron Cohen:

    The comedic performer had a high profile and acclaimed 2020. In addition to his dramatic role here, Cohen received many accolades for his buzzy sequel Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Sorkin’s Netflix pic showcased his chops outside of what he’s best known for and Academy voters could take notice.

    The Case Against Sacha Baron Cohen:

    Trial‘s chances at winning in the major categories has waned in recent months. In this particular race, Daniel Kaluuya’s performance in Judas and the Black Messiah has swept the significant precursors and he’s become a strong frontrunner for the Oscar.

    The Verdict

    Cohen’s Borat costar Maria Bakalova stands a much better chance at taking Supporting Actress. He had a great year, but it’s unlikely to culminate with a trip to the Oscar stage.

    My Case Of posts will continue with Emerald Fennell’s direction for Promising Young Woman…

    Oscars 2020: The Case of The Trial of the Chicago 7

    My Case Of posts for the 8 Best Picture nominees concludes with Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7. If you missed the previous seven entries on the other contenders, you can peruse them here:

    Oscars 2020: The Case of The Father

    Oscars 2020: The Case of Judas and the Black Messiah

    Oscars 2020: The Case of Mank

    Oscars 2020: The Case of Minari

    Oscars 2020: The Case of Nomadland

    Oscars 2020: The Case of Promising Young Woman

    Oscars 2020: The Case of Sound of Metal

    The Case for The Trial of the Chicago 7:

    When the Netflix drama began streaming in October, Sorkin’s sophomore directorial effort became an immediate player in the Oscar discussion and was considered a soft frontrunner for weeks. Along with The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, and Sound of Metal, it scored six nominations. This is also the kind of effort that seems tailor-made for Academy attention. Sorkin is already a gold winner for his 2010 screenplay for The Social Network.

    The Case Against The Trial of the Chicago 7:

    Well… it’s grown recently. Trial couldn’t manage a Golden Globe or Critics Choice victory over Nomadland, which has become the favorite. In fact, all of its major nominations appear in jeopardy. Sacha Baron Cohen’s chances in Supporting Actor are behind Daniel Kaluuya’s for Judas and the Black Messiah. Original Screenplay seems iffy with Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman surging. Perhaps most notably, Sorkin missed the cut in Best Director.

    The Verdict

    While other nominees like Minari, Promising Young Woman, and Sound of Metal have gained momentum in recent weeks, Trial appears to be going in the opposite direction. There is a legitimate chance that it walks away with zero wins come Oscar night (Film Editing might be its best hope). I wouldn’t completely count out its chances to take Best Picture, but its prospects have undoubtedly dwindled.

    My Case Of posts for Best Picture have wrapped up, but now it’s time for the directing and acting players. That begins with Lee Isaac Chung for Minari and that will be posted tomorrow…