The Caped Crusader should easily make it a three-peat at #1 while the Japanese animated fantasy Jujutsu Kaisen 0 and crime drama The Outfit with Mark Rylance debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Let’s begin with The Outfit because my mere $1 million estimate leaves it outside of the top five. As for Jujutsu, my projection should put it in either the two or three slot depending on how much Uncharted dips. It could be close.
The Batman‘s sophomore drop was a solid 50% and it stands to lose less in its third outing. Dog and Spider-Man: No Way Home should stay in the four and five positions.
Here’s how I see it breaking down:
1. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $42.1 million
2. Jujutsu Kaisen 0
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
3. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
4. Dog
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (March 11-13)
As mentioned, The Batman continued to rock the charts in weekend #2 with a sturdy hold at $66.5 million. That’s higher than my $62.5 million take and the ten-day total is $239 million.
All holdovers experienced meager declines (between 10-17% for all). Uncharted remained in the runner-up spot with $9.2 million compared to my $6.7 million take. It stands at an impressive $113 million.
The surprise of the weekend was BTS Permission to Dance on Stage – Seoul. The live concert pic with the K-pop superstars played in theaters on Saturday night and amassed $6.8 million for third place. I didn’t have it on my radar.
Dog was fourth with $5.2 million, a tad ahead of my $4.4 million prediction for $47 million overall.
Spider-Man: No Way Home rounded out the top five with $4 million (I said $3.8 million) to bring the gargantuan haul to $792 million.
With no new wide releases this weekend (or the next one), The Batman should easily maintain its perch atop the charts. The question is how much it drops in the sophomore frame.
I’m projecting a dip in the low to mid 50s range which would give it around $60-$65 million. Other holdovers should maintain their current rankings in the top five with smallish declines considering the lack of competition.
Here’s how I see it breaking down:
1. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $62.5 million
2. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
3. Dog
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $1.9 million
Box Office Results (March 4-6)
As was widely expected, The Batman easily achieved the second best opening of the COVID era (behind Spidey). Robert Pattinson’s introduction as the Caped Crusader took in $134 million. That’s not near as high as my $155.2 million projection but it’s still a solid haul. With an A- Cinemascore grade and little competition, it will rule the month of March until The Lost City arrives on March 25th.
Uncharted dropped to second with $11.1 million, a tad ahead of my $10.5 million forecast. Tom Holland’s almost sure to be newest franchise sits at a cool $100 million.
Channing Tatum’s Dog was third with $6.1 million (I said $6.4 million) for a three-week take of $40 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth at $4.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction. The massive tally is $786 million.
Death on the Nile rounded out the top five with $2.7 million (I went with $2.5 million). Total is $37 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… same Bat time… same Bat channel…
It’s an eagerly awaited weekend at the box office as The Batman looks to have the second highest debut of the COVID era (behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home). The DCEU reboot with Robert Pattinson as the Caped Crusader is the only new release of this weekend (and the majority of March) and my detailed prediction post on it can be found here:
The range of possibility is wide (anywhere from $100 to $200 million depending on what you’re reading). I believe a gross just north of $150 million is most likely and my projection gives it the 20th largest domestic opening of all time.
Holdovers should experience heftier dips than this past weekend with Uncharted, Dog, Spider-Man, and Death on the Nile all sliding a spot. Here’s how I see it looking:
1. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $155.2 million
2. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
3. Dog
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
Box Office Results (February 25-27)
The leftovers didn’t spoil during the last frame of February while the two newcomers didn’t prove appetizing to moviegoers.
Uncharted ruled the charts for the second frame with $23 million, just ahead of my $21.8 million forecast for a two-week total of $83 million. Tom Holland, as I mentioned last week, has himself another promising franchise.
Channing Tatum’s Dog was a good boy in its sophomore outing with $10.1 million, outpacing my $8.4 million take. The two-week haul is $30 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) for a gargantuan take of $779 million.
Death on the Nile was fourth with $4.4 million, edging my $3.7 million prediction for a stalled $32 million overall.
Jackass Forever rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.8 million). It’s up to $52 million.
The fresh product managed respective 8th and 9th place starts. Studio 666, the horror comedy from the Foo Fighters, made only $1.5 million compared to my $2.1 million estimate. Cyrano with Peter Dinklage fared even worse with $1.3 million (I said $1.8 million).
Blogger’s Update (02/23): The theater count for Studio 666 has been announced and it’s higher than expected with just over 2300 screens. I’m upping my estimate a bit from $1.4 million to $2.1 million.
As February closes out and we await the massive release of The Batman to begin March, the top five may look the same this weekend. There are two new titles: the musical romantic drama Cyrano with Peter Dinklage and the Foo Fighters led horror comedy Studio 666. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’ve got both of the newcomers posting debuts in the $2 million range- $1.8 million for Cyrano and $2.1 million for 666. That would put both outside of the top five.
As for the holdovers, the post President’s Day weekend usually sees rather large drops for those returnees. After as its terrific debut (more on that below), Uncharted could be headed for a slide in the 50 percent range with Dog in the low to mid 40s. Spider-Man: No Way Home, Death on the Nile, and Jackass Forever should hold their spots in the 3-5 positions.
So as the Caped Crusader readies for his closeup and a nine figure start (my box office prediction for it will be up tomorrow), here’s how I see things happening this weekend:
1. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
2. Dog
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (February 18-21)
It’s Tom Holland’s world and we’re just living in it as his adventure flick Uncharted with Mark Wahlberg dominated the four-day holiday frame with a much bigger than anticipated $51.3 million. That blows away my forecast of $33.7 million and shows that its lead’s star power extends beyond him in the Spidey suit. Expect a sequel to be fast tracked.
Channing Tatum received a welcome return after a lengthy starring role absence as his directorial debut Dog took in $17.3 million, lapping my $13.3 million estimate. With an A- Cinemascore grade, this could perform well over subsequent weeks as Tatum has The Lost City lined up with Sandra Bullock a month from now.
That other franchise of Holland’s – Spider-Man: No Way Home – was third with $9.2 million as it swung past my $7.3 million take. At $772 million, it’s perched at #3 domestically all-time.
Death on the Nile stalled in its sophomore frame and fell from first to fourth with $7.7 million (I went higher at $9.8 million). The underwhelming two week total is $26 million.
Jackass Forever was fifth with $6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a three week tally of $47 million.
Finally, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com Marry Me was sixth in its second go-round with $4.3 million compared to my more generous $6 million prediction. It’s made $17 million.
The video game adaptation Uncharted with Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg looks to rule the #1 spot over the four-day President’s Day weekend while Channing Tatum’s directorial debut Dog hopes for a solid second place showing. They’re the newbies coming on Friday and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
While reviews are mixed (50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes) for Uncharted, it should easily take a commanding lead for the POTUS frame. My low to mid 30s take puts it at about two and half times the gross of Dog, which finds Mr. Tatum in his first starring role in nearly half a decade.
As for holdovers, the long weekend should allow for smallish drop-offs. We’ve seen that play out previously during the mid February time period. Death on the Nile, following its mediocre start, might flirt with staying in double digits (I have it just under) with Spider-Man: No Way Home (that other Holland pic), Marry Me, and Jackass Forever filling out the rest of the chart.
Here’s how I envision the top 6 and these are estimates over the Friday to Monday holiday:
1. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
2. Dog
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
5. Marry Me
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (February 11-13)
As mentioned, Kenneth Branagh’s Death on the Nile (his follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express) went a bit off the tracks with $12.8 million. That’s shy of my $14.3 million projection and it’s less than half of what Orient accomplished out of the gate.
Jackass Forever dropped to second with $8 million. The 65% drop was the largest of the five picture franchise and under my prediction of $11.3 million. The prankster sequel stands at $37 million after ten days.
Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson couldn’t get audiences to fall for them as Marry Me debuted in third with $7.9 million. That didn’t match my expectation of $11.2 million. Its simultaneous Peacock streaming start might have caused many couples to simply view from home.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.1 million) for $759 million overall. The MCU smash is just $1 million away from Avatar and becoming the third largest domestic earner of all-time (obviously it will hit that mark this week).
Liam Neeson’s latest revenge thriller Blacklight performed in line with his other COVID genre tales Honest Thief and The Marksman. The fifth place tally was $3.5 million, in range with my $3.8 million estimate.
Finally, Moonfall took a giant step down to #8 and fell 70% with $2.9 million in its sophomore outing (I was a little more generous with $3.5 million). Sing 2 and Scream managed to leap it for the sixth and seventh spots. The putrid gross is just $15 million.
Tomorrow morning, Kenneth Branagh appears poised to land nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay for his passion project Belfast. Before he made that Oscar contender, he shot Death on the Nile. A follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express, the pic has faced a turbulent journey to the big screen (it opens Friday).
Originally slated for October 2020, Nile experienced numerous COVID related delays. Then there was the matter of its costar Armie Hammer having a massive public relations fallout due to revelations about his personal life.
Four Oscars ago, I actually predicted Orient would receive a Costume Design nomination and it was certainly in the running for Production Design. It came up empty handed. The review embargo for Nile lapsed today and it currently stands at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s better than the 60% that its predecessor garnered and many critics are claiming that this is an improvement.
That said, I don’t envision any nods (even the aforementioned tech races) materializing for this. It will probably be long forgotten in voters minds a year from now. Branagh, on the glass full side, should be pleased with the forthcoming Belfast love. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been pretty easy to predict each weekend’s #1 film for a while – a lot of Spidey, a one-week interruption by Scream, and Johnny Knoxville and his pranksters in Jackass Forever. That gets a little more complicated this time around as three new pics enter the marketplace: Kenneth Branagh’s Murder on the Orient Express follow-up Death on the Nile, the Jennifer Lopez/Owen Wilson musical rom com Marry Me, and the latest Liam Neeson revenge saga Blacklight. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:
Let’s start with Blacklight. Had this Neeson led tale (his granddaughter gets taken in it) come out in February a decade ago, we might be having a different conversation. However, grosses for these genre exercises with the actor have dwindled over the past couple of years (see Honest Thief and The Marksman). Therefore my $3.8 million estimate puts it at the tail end of the top five.
Then there’s Marry Me. It’s shrewdly placed during Valentine’s Day weekend where couples could be searching out something to view on date night. They will have the opportunity to do so with Marry Me in the theater and on Peacock and that could eat into the earnings. I have it barely topping double digits, but will admit that it could over perform and even snatch the #1 spot.
Jackass Forever is the fifth feature in the 20-year-old franchise and the fifth to open at #1. Looking over previous sophomore frame dips for earlier pics, I was surprised at their low drops. For 2002’s Jackass: The Movie, it was 44%. 2006’s Jackass: Number Two fell 49% while 2010’s Jackass 3D was the steepest at 57% (it was coming off a massive $50 million premiere). Spinoff Bad Grandpa in 2013 only had a 37% decline. I’ll say Forever loses about 50% That could be good enough for anywhere from the 1-3 slot depending on how Nile and Marry pan out. There could be a photo finish for that two spot.
Murder on the Orient Express tracked a solid $28 million haul just over four years ago. Yet it didn’t leg out particularly well and I question whether audiences are truly excited for another dose of Hercule Poirot and his many suspects. I suspect it should still make around half of what its predecessor took in. That would get it to #1, but we’re in a situation where we could have three genuine contenders for the top spot.
Spider-Man should stay in the top five with Moonfall potentially dropping out. The Roland Emmerich disaster tale managed just a C+ Cinemascore grade to go with its weak opening. A sophomore fall in the 60% range appears likely.
It’s also worth noting that there’s a certain game between the Bengals and Rams taking place Sunday. We usually don’t see three high-profile releases on Super Bowl weekend and it’s fair to assume grosses will take a hit on that date.
Here’s how I see it shaking out for your top 6:
1. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
2. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. Marry Me
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. Blacklight
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
6. Moonfall
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (February 4-6)
The Jackass franchise is five for five when it comes to opening #1 at the box office. Jackass Forever performed in line with estimates at $23.1 million, a touch ahead of my $21.8 million projection. It ranks fourth in terms of the quintet of debuts (just ahead of the original), but it’s certainly an impressive number given the circumstances.
As for Roland Emmerich’s disaster pic Moonfall… not so much. The big budget ($140 million) lunar saga cratered with only $9.8 million (I went higher with $12.8 million). As mentioned above, expect a precipitous drop in its sophomore frame.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $9.5 million, swinging a bit above my $8.1 million take. The total has reached $748 million as it inches ever closer to 3rd domestically all-time (currently held by Avatar with $760 million).
Scream was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $4.4 million) and it’s scared up an overall tally of $68 million.
Sing 2 rounded out the top five with $4.2 million compared to my $3.6 million estimate. Total is $139 million.
Hercule Poirot is back in mystery solving form (quite a while after he was supposed to be) when Death on the Nile sets sail in theaters on February 11th. The follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express finds Kenneth Branagh back as the famed Agatha Christie sleuth. As he did with Express, the star directs himself. Tom Bateman reprises his role from the predecessor. The supporting cast includes Annette Bening, Russell Brand, Ali Fazal, Dawn French, Gal Gadot, Armie Hammer (the pic was shot was shot prior to troubling details about his personal life surfaced), Rose Leslie, Emma Mackey, Sophie Okonedo, Jennifer Saunders, and Letitia Wright.
Budgeted at a reported $90 million, Nile was originally slated for multiplexes in December 2020 before numerous COVID delays. In that time, Branagh made Belfast and it’s become one of the favorites to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Back in 2017, Orient debuted to a better than anticipated $28 million. It stalled a bit in subsequent weekends, but eventually hit just over $100 million domestically. At that time, audiences gave it a B Cinemascore grade – not bad though certainly not impressive.
That calls into question whether moviegoers will be excited for another dose of Poirot and his suspects. Furthermore, Nile will attempt to skew towards a female crowd. Some could be distracted with the release of the Jennifer Lopez rom com Marry Me. There’s also a football game on Sunday that could eat into the grosses.
I deduce that this might make about half of what Express accomplished for its start.
Death on the Nile opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
My weekly Oscar predictions begin with a blogger’s note. For the past two and a half months, I’ve been providing these updates each Thursday. This will now switch to every Friday (busy work schedule is the reason).
And we move on with a significant development in the rankings. For the first time since I began these predictions, the #1 slot for Best Picture is not named Mank. The David Fincher Netflix pic had its official review embargo lift today. Some of the critical reaction is excellent. Other write-ups, while still overwhelmingly positive, call into question whether this will take the biggest prize of all. It certainly still could in my estimation, but I’m currently giving an ever so slight advantage to Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland (and with The Trial of the Chicago 7 not far behind). I am still listing Fincher in top position with Director as I could envision a victory being a partial career achievement award. That said, Zhao is right on his heels as she would be the second female filmmaker ever to take the gold.
We continue to Best Actor as Amazon has confirmed the acting placements for the performers in Regina King’s One Night in Miami. Of note is that Kingsley Ben-Adir will be campaigned for in Best Actor with Leslie Odom Jr. vying for Supporting Actor. In my view, this increases the chances for both to make the cut as they won’t be competing against each other. Odom was already on my Supporting list last week. Ben-Adir jumps into the Actor final five and that’s to the detriment of Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. Kaluuya could absolutely still get in, but there’s uncertainty as to whether he will be campaigned for in Actor or Supporting Actor. There’s also no confirmation yet as to when Warner Bros. will release the picture. So for now, he’s on the outside looking in until further information is provided.
The Actress and Supporting Actress contests remain the same without even any ranking alterations. That’s not to indicate those races aren’t fluid. There just wasn’t anything major in the past week to shift my thinking in the past 8 days.
Finally, Disney has delayed the release dates of both Death on the Nile and Free Guy to 2021 TBD. The former was a potential nominee in several tech races such as Costume Design and Production Design. The latter could have been a hopeful in Visual Effects.
And with that, let’s get to the guesstimates!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Minari (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
14. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 9)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 4)
4. Onward (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. Lupin III: The First (PR: 8)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 2)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
9. 76 Days (PR: 8)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
8. True Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wife of a Spy
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Rebecca (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 10)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Mulan (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 4)
5. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 10)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. Rebecca (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 6)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 4)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: 8)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Invisible Man
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
10. Dolittle (PR: 9)
And this equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Tenet
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Rebecca
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, My Little Sister, New Order, On the Rocks, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
As October comes to a close, the Aretha Franklin biopic elected to shift its release date to August 2021. That takes it out of contention for this Oscar season. I have had Jennifer Hudson’s performance as the iconic singer in my top five for a couple of weeks. Her departure makes way for Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit in the predicted group in a still crowded lead Actress field.
My shifts continue as, after putting Daniel Kaluuya’s work for Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting category, I’m putting him back in Best Actor. Hopefully Warner Bros. will clear this up soon as the pic still doesn’t have a firm release date. He enters the top five to the detriment of Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal.
His departure from Supporting Actor vaults Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7 to first position. It’s worth mentioning that Netflix has confirmed that the sprawling cast for Aaron Sorkin’s historical drama will all be campaigned for in that race. I have also swapped out Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami for his costar Leslie Odom, Jr. The changes continue as I’m now becoming more convinced that the late Chadwick Boseman will be a double nominee for both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in lead and for supporting with Da 5 Bloods.
There’s also a switch in Supporting Actress as I’m taking out Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) and replacing her with Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman.
All these changes and more are below with my latest round of Thursday predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 11)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
14. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
10. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 9)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary J. Blige, Respect
Audra McDonald, Respect
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 7)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The-Forty-Year-Old-Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
9. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Next Goal Wins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
4. Boys State (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
I Am Greta
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 3)
3. Another Round (PR: 2)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
8. Wife of a Spy (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: 9)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Death on the Nile (PR: 9)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. Rebecca (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 9)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
3. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Emma (PR: 3)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Death on the Nile
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. News of the World (PR: 2)
4. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
10. Ammonite (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Over the Moon
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. ” Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
10. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 4)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Rebecca (PR: 7)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Death on the Nile
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Greyhound (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Invisible Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greyhound (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And this equates to the following pictures getting these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Tenet
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Coming 2 America, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, New Order, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 