The picture became a bit clearer in my view this week as The Midnight Sky and News of the World both had their review embargoes lifted. As I see it, News solidified itself as a player in multiple categories including Best Picture. Sky, on the other hand, will likely only contend for some technical races due to its mixed reaction.
My nine estimated BP nominees has stayed remarkably consistent over the past several weeks. We shall see how unscreened late comers such as The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Mauritanian factor in once eyes are on them.
There’s only two significant changes in the main races as I’ve put Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) back in the Actress fold, replacing Meryl Streep in The Prom. We will see if this holds as I always feel a bit skittish about taking Meryl out. In Adapted Screenplay, News of the World returns to the five and that displaces I’m Thinking of Ending Things.
And while I’m not projecting that Sound of Metal will get more than I said last week (Best Actor and Sound nods), it does seem to be a picture on the rise.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
14. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Prom (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 5)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
7. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Supernova
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 8)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
9. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lupin III: The First
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 5)
3. Time (PR: 2)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. Boys State (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 4)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
8. Collective (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. 76 Days (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Charlatan (PR: 9)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Minari (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 3)
7. Mulan (PR: 8)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
7. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
8. “(If Only You Could) See Me” from Mank (PR: 7)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Prom (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 5)
7. Mank (PR: 9)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And my latest estimates have these movies garnering the following numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984