Michael Bay is hoping that action fans will transform Ambulance into a hit when it debuts April 8th. Jake Gyllenhaal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Eiza Gonzalez headline the modestly $40 million budgeted hostage thriller (it’s about one-sixth the cost of Bay’s last Transformers pic).
Originally slated for February before being pushed back to its current slot, reviews are decent with a 74% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Based on a 2005 Danish film, the best case scenario might be a $20 million start. It could also stall in the $10 million range.
Lower teens seems more likely and that could put it in position for a number two or three debut behind Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Morbius (depending on how far it plummets in the sophomore frame).
Ambulance opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million
For my Sonic the Hedgehog 2 prediction, click here:
When the director seems to have ambivalent (at best) feelings about returning to their franchise, that emotion might rub off on the audience a bit. And so it is with The Matrix Resurrections, arriving 18 years after parts II and III with Lana Wachowski back (though not with her sister Lilly who co-directed previous installments). An overriding theme is that Wachowski is making part IV because the studio was going to do it regardless. Apparently she’d rather not leave it in the hands of others. The more things change, the more they stay the same in one respect. Our fourth trip into this world, like the second and third, can’t come close to matching the heights of the 1999 original (no matter how many throwback clips we see from it).
A glaring flaw is Resurrections mirrors that of the first sequels. So much after part one about The One centered its drama on Neo’s (Keanu Reeves) powerful connection with Trinity (Carrie-Anne Moss). For the most part, we were told as opposed to shown that development. The 2021 model is dependent on our wistful nostalgic pining of their romance. It’s one that I and I suspect many others just don’t possess.
In The Matrix, we were introduced to a fresh and exciting cinematic universe at the perfect time. As the 20th century drew to a close, questions abounded about machines and technology and their potential to overpower humans and their free will. It was potent in its message back then and (of course) the action was mind blowing and influenced many a 21st century spectacle.
2003’s follow-up The Matrix Reloaded was in many respects a mess, but an often highly entertaining one. Its freeway shootout was a marvel that holds up gloriously today. The first act set in a sweat drenched orgiastic Zion… not so much. The Matrix Revolutions arrived six months after Reloaded and despite some nifty moments, it was a serious letdown critically and financially.
Yet franchises never die in Hollywood so Wachowski seems to be battling her own free will and giving us her next iteration. For those who may have forgot (and it’s easy to forget Revolutions), Neo and Trinity both lost their lives while saving what was left of the human race from machine domination. In Resurrections, Neo’s real life persona Thomas Anderson is indeed alive and living 60 years in the future as a video game programmer. His lauded creation is essentially what we saw in the previous trilogy. His therapy sessions with Neil Patrick Harris’s analyst hints of his recollections and, for that, he’s prescribed blue pills. When Anderson is confronted with his past, it comes from a younger Morpheus (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II) and a new team of rebels led by a white rabbit tattooed Bugs (Jessica Henwick).
It also turns out Trinity is around in the form of Tiffany, now married with kids and without knowledge of her gravity defiant history. The deal cut by the lovebirds in Revolutions still stands albeit on shaky ground. Humans and machines have found a way to coexist but others want war times to resume. The plot, however, really isn’t focused on extinction. Tiffany is the McGuffin – and the drama centers on her chosen pill intake. It seems a tad low-pressure for a series typically concentrated on civilization’s existence.
In addition to a more youthful Morpheus, we also have Jonathan Groff as a boyish Agent Smith. Neither of their characterizations match those of Laurence Fishburne or Hugo Weaving, respectively. The screenplay, in particular, does a disservice to Mateen (a fine actor) and the treatment of Morpheus. So crucial in the trilogy, he’s relegated to an insignificant status in this one. On the flip side, Jada Pinkett Smith returns as General Niobe and she’s aged six decades. The makeup is decent. Her decision making hasn’t improved much when it comes to advising our protagonists.
Wachowski’s self-referential treatment of the material starts off fairly funny and the first hour has its charms. When a holdover from Reloaded and Revolutions appears to spew English and French rantings about our text obsessed and social media culture, it’s moved to eye rolling emoji territory. In Reloaded, that mid-picture car flipping street extravaganza alone arguably made the first sequel worth the price of admission. There’s no such centerpiece in Resurrections that approaches it. Instead we get a follow-up where the filmmaker is struggling to justify its existence and even pontificating through her subjects that it’s not warranted. Maybe she should have left this revolution for someone else to start.
In the last year of our previous century, The Matrix was a game changing action spectacle that influenced many pictures that followed in the 21st century. The Oscars took notice. It was nominated for four Academy Awards (Film Editing, Sound, Sound Effects Editing, Visual Effects) and won all of them. In fact, it came in second in terms of number of victories behind only Best Picture winner American Beauty.
Four years later, the series became a trilogy when The Matrix Reloaded and The Matrix Revolutions both premiered in 2003. The story was different that time around. Neither film received a single nomination. That was a year in which The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King was crowned in many a race (including three that The Matrix took).
Tomorrow marks the release of The Matrix Revolutions from Lana Wachowski with Keanu Reeves and Carrie-Anne Moss reprising their iconic roles. Today is when the Oscar shortlists were revealed in Sound (now just one competition) and Visual Effects. Revolutions showed up as a hopeful on each top ten list.
So will the fourth Matrix manage the nod or two that its two predecessors could not? Probably. Visual Effects seems likely even though it would be shocking if fellow Warner Bros property Dune doesn’t win. Sound is a bit more iffy though it’s got a 50/50 shot.
Bottom line: Resurrectionsappears poised to put this franchise back in contention in those two races and those two races only. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Blogger’s Update (12/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising down Resurrections prediction from $30.7 million for the three-day and $47.2 million for the five-day to $26.7 million and $40.3 million for the five-day
The Matrix Resurrections won’t be The One when it opens December 22nd, giving itself a five-day Christmas rollout. That’s thanks to what should be a robust sophomore frame for Spider-Man: No Way Home. It might not even be The Two if Sing 2 manages to squeak by it for the runner-up position.
Arriving 18 years after The Matrix Reloaded and Revolutions hit screens in 2003, this is the fourth franchise entry that began in 1999 and changed how we look at action blockbusters. The original Matrix is a landmark. The sequels that followed were met with considerably more mixed reaction (especially part 3).
Lana Wachowski directs without her sister Lilly (they made the trilogy together). Returning are Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Lambert Wilson, and Jada Pinkett Smith. New to the game are Yahya Abdul-Mateen (taking over for Laurence Fishburne as a more youthful Morpheus), Jessica Henwick, Jonathan Groff, Neil Patrick Harris, Priyanka Chopra Jones, and Christina Ricci. Once slated for May, it was postponed for pandemic purposes.
There’s no doubt that Resurrections is an event picture that has many devotees of the series ready to rush out. That said, it’s a major question mark as to how high this gets. While this is certainly an experience many will want to catch on the biggest screen possible, there is the option to view it simultaneously on HBO Max. Plenty of viewers not of the die-hard persuasion could choose to watch from the comfort of the couch. And while I’m sure many younger viewers are familiar with parts I-III – they may not have the reverence for it that fans, say, 35 and up do. Furthermore there is that pesky Spider-Man hanging around gobbling up the Yuletide dollars.
Don’t get me wrong. Resurrections could have a huge opening and amass $70 million from Wednesday to Sunday. Reloaded took in over $90 million for its start and held the title of highest grossing R-rated pic for over a decade until Deadpool replaced it. On the other hand, Revolutions couldn’t keep up and petered out with $139 million total.
One rather obvious comp is Dune, another sci-fi spectacle that followed 2021’s Warner Bros pattern of premiering their theatrical fare on HBO’s subscription service. It made $40 million over the traditional opening weekend. I’m estimating that Resurrections won’t hit that number from Friday to Sunday, but that the extra two days could bring in $45-$50 million.
The Matrix Resurrections opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $40.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
There’s a sequence in Candyman in a high school girls bathroom that plays like it belongs in a less meditative continuation of the franchise. While it’s certainly cleverly shot, the scene feels out of place with its bad sequel slasher vibe. It may well be the point of the tone that its filmmakers are satirically putting forth. After all, they jettison anything that transpired in the two inferior follow-ups to the 1992 original. That doesn’t mean the excursion works and it’s a nagging issue with the film as a whole. There’s no doubt that a lot of thought went into this melding of issues from racial discrimination to white privilege to gentrification to police brutality. What plagues it somewhat is that it seldom succeeds in getting under your skin.
Nearly 30 years ago, Bernard Rose’s Candyman (from a story by Clive Barker) shook up a tired horror genre filled with Freddy, Jason, and Michael sequels. There was gore to be had, but also plenty of subtext in its tale of the urban legend with a hook for a hand and a bevy of bees emanating from his torso. As the 1890s era tortured artist whose love for a Caucasian woman resulted in his own torture, Tony Todd created an iconic title character with more narrative meat on the bones than your typical weapon wielding terrorizer from that time. It was an arthouse movie and so is this (it’s even set in an arthouse for chunks).
This new version, as mentioned, serves as a direct restart. The Cabrini Green projects where part I was placed is no longer the notorious crime hub of Chicago. The gentrified and souped up property is now home to young and thriving professionals. This includes Anthony (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II) and his girlfriend Brianna (Teyonah Parris). She’s an art gallery director and he’s a painter who’s stuck in a creative rut. Their collective work is contingent on the approval of the snooty types who make it their business to judge them (critics, gallery owners). One message seems clear – their assessment of an African-American artist’s work rises in their esteem if it’s more violent.
Anthony gets a burst of inspiration that is kickstarted by Brianna’s brother Troy (Nathan Stewart-Jarrett). When he regales the couple and his boyfriend with the nearly forgotten account of the buzzy killer whose name shan’t be uttered five times in a mirror, it gets Anthony’s creative juices flowing. This leads him to investigate the crimes of Daniel Robitaille (Todd) and the crimes committed against him. Billy (Colman Domingo) is a longtime Cabrini tenant who is more than pleased to help with the backstory (he had his own dealings with Robitaille in the late 1970s). Anthony’s research results in a project that dares you to say Candyman’s name and await the consequences. This is when blood starts flowing.
Nia DaCosta directs her second feature with a screenwriting and production assist from Jordan Peele. The script incorporates the plot from 1992 with new twists. The primary one is that there’s not only one Candyman. We know this when Anthony’s past involvement in the saga is revealed and he begins showing symptoms of becoming him after a nasty bee sting. Side effects include often visually striking murders.
While DaCosta is just establishing her filmography, Peele is recognized for his melding of social issues with scare tactics (Get Out and Us are both superior examples of how to do it). In Candyman, there’s more of an appreciation for what it’s trying to do than what it ultimately accomplishes onscreen. Sort of like a painting that’s busy with ideas but there’s not enough time allotted for it to really hook you in. I admired the picture to a point though I left unconvinced the deeper dive was worth it.
Who can take the final weekend of August and turn it into a #1 opening? Oh, the Candyman can and likely will when it debuts August 27th. The long in development horror sequel arrives nearly 30 years after the 1992 original scared audiences into avoiding saying its name five times in a row. Nia DaCosta directs from a script cowritten by none other than Jordan Peele. With its source material based on a short story from Clive Barker, it stars Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Teyonah Parris, Nathan Stewart-Jarrett, and Colman Domingo. THE OG Candyman Tony Todd makes an appearance as does Vanessa Estelle Williams from the ’92 tale.
Billed as a direct follow-up to the first and therefore ignoring two sequels that followed in the mid to late 90s, Candyman was first slated for release in June of 2020 before its series of COVID delays. It arrives during a summer where horror fans have had plenty of options and most of them were sequels. I don’t see this generating anywhere near what, say, A Quiet Place Part II or The Conjuring: The Devil Made Do It achieved. I do think if Don’t Breathe 2 managed just over $10 million, this should get beyond that.
Candyman could be poised to capitalize on the familiarity of its title character. That could propel it to a start as high as $20 million. My hunch is that it falls lower in the mid to high teens range (with the caveat that this genre is known to over perform).
And now I dare call its name for a potentially deadly fifth time and say…
Candyman opening weekend prediction: $17.3 million
The picture became a bit clearer in my view this week as The Midnight Sky and News of the World both had their review embargoes lifted. As I see it, News solidified itself as a player in multiple categories including Best Picture. Sky, on the other hand, will likely only contend for some technical races due to its mixed reaction.
My nine estimated BP nominees has stayed remarkably consistent over the past several weeks. We shall see how unscreened late comers such as The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Mauritanian factor in once eyes are on them.
There’s only two significant changes in the main races as I’ve put Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) back in the Actress fold, replacing Meryl Streep in The Prom. We will see if this holds as I always feel a bit skittish about taking Meryl out. In Adapted Screenplay, News of the World returns to the five and that displaces I’m Thinking of Ending Things.
And while I’m not projecting that Sound of Metal will get more than I said last week (Best Actor and Sound nods), it does seem to be a picture on the rise.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
14. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Prom (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 5)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
7. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Supernova
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 8)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
9. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lupin III: The First
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 5)
3. Time (PR: 2)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. Boys State (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 4)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
8. Collective (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. 76 Days (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Charlatan (PR: 9)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Minari (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 3)
7. Mulan (PR: 8)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
7. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
8. “(If Only You Could) See Me” from Mank (PR: 7)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Prom (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 5)
7. Mank (PR: 9)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And my latest estimates have these movies garnering the following numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
I took a little Turkey Day hiatus from my Oscar estimates, but I’m back at it today with fresh predictions! The major categories have stayed the same (albeit with some ranking movement) with one notable exception. In Best Actress, I have moved both Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) out of the top five in favor of Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) and Meryl Streep (The Prom).
We also have changes in both Screenplay races. In Original, Promising Young Woman (which seems to be gaining steam) is elevated over Da 5 Bloods. In Adapted, I’m Thinking of Ending Things gets the 5 spot and replaces News of the World.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll be back at it next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Prom (PR: 14)
14. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
5. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colin Firth, Supernova
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 8)
10. Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. Connected (PR: 5)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 4)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
4. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 7)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
10. 76 Days (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
MLK/FBI
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Charlatan (PR: 10)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life Ahead
The Disciple
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
7. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Minari (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 2)
5. Emma (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
3. Tenet (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 3)
8. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Greyhound
Da 5 Bloods
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 7)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
5. Mulan (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
9. Mank (PR: 10)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, I’m No Longer Here, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Prom, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
We have new #1’s in three of the four acting derbies in my weekly Oscar prediction updates! Let’s break it down:
The reviews for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom have gone out of their way to praise the work of Chadwick Boseman. Best Actor now appears to be a race between the late performer and Anthony Hopkins in The Father. I have had Hopkins listed in first place for months at this point, but this changes today. That said, this is a competition that could come down to the wire.
In Best Actress, I have kept Viola Davis atop the list. However, while critics have lauded her in the title role of Ma Rainey, Vanessa Kirby’s work in Pieces of a Woman seems to gathering buzz. I thought about putting her in the pole position and we’ll see how this plays out in the coming weeks.
Ironically, the placement of Boseman at #1 in Best Actor drops him from 1st to 6th in Supporting Actor for Da 5 Bloods. This currently puts Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) on top for the first time in a seemingly wide open field. I have also dropped David Strathairn (Nomadland) from the five. Additionally, while I am waiting for Warner Bros to confirm, I am putting Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) back in this field as opposed to lead. So it’s him and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) back in the fold.
Last week, the poor reviews for Hillbilly Elegy caused me to take Glenn Close from #1 to #4. Like Supporting Actor, this race looks like anyone’s for the taking. I am elevating the veteran actress back to 1st as I could envision her overdue factor overtaking the bad critical reaction to the film itself. Also I’ve put Helena Zengel (News of the World) back in over Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari).
There’s also a change in Best Director with Florian Zeller (The Father) in for the first time over Lee Isaac Chung (Minari). Finally, there’s some release date news. Amazon Prime has moved Coming 2 America from December 2020 to March 2021. That takes it out of contention (where it could have played in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). And Warner Bros confirmed that Wonder Woman 1984 will receive a Christmas Day HBO Max streaming premiere. I don’t yet have it in the final five, but it could show up in Visual Effects.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 10)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Midnight Sky (PR: 14)
14. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
15. First Cow (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
9. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: 10)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Supporting)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 5)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 5)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 9)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Connected (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 7)
8. 76 Days (PR: 9)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 3)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m No Longer Here (PR: Not Ranked)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
9. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Charlatan (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
New Order
True Mothers
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Coming 2 America
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
7. Mulan (PR: 5)
8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Coming 2 America
Emma
Ammonite
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 5)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Hear My Voice” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
“Never Break” from Giving Voice
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 8)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Rebecca (PR: 5)
9. Emma (PR: 4)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Soul (PR: 5)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
4. Greyhound (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Mank (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Mank
10 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Connected, Crip Camp, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Back at it again with another round of weekly Oscar predictions and there are changes to be discussed in every major category! We begin with the grand prize – Best Picture. For the third week in a row, we have a new #1 as I’m elevating The Trial of the Chicago 7 to front runner status for the first time. It displaces Nomadland, which falls to 2nd position while Mank goes from 2nd to 3rd.
While Trial gets top billing, I am still placing David Fincher at #1 for director as I believe that could be a bit of a career achievement recognition. As stated last week, I do think Chloe Zhao could be hot on his heels. It does feel a bit strange to have Trial as the Picture favorite while not believing Aaron Sorkin will take Director, but here we are in this strange 2020 Oscar season. Speaking of that race, I now have Lee Isaac Chung for the fast rising Minari over Paul Greengrass for News of the World.
Moving on, the review embargo lifted this week for Hillbilly Elegy and the results weren’t pretty. The Netflix title stands at just 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and that takes it out of my top 15 for Picture and top 10 in Adapted Screenplay. It also hurts the chances of its leads. Amy Adams drops out of the top 5 for Actress and that’s to the benefit of another Netflix entry with Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. Glenn Close has been listed at #1 in Supporting Actress since I began these posts in late August. This too has changed in a currently wide open Supporting Actress field. She drops from #1 to #4, but the irony is I still think she could win. However, it’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank that vaults to #1 with Olivia Colman (The Father) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) following. There’s another move in Supporting Actress with Yuh-Joun Youn for Minari in over Helena Zengel for News of the World.
In Best Actor, it’s Riz Ahmed back in the final five and that takes out Kingsley Ben-Adir in One Night in Miami. In Supporting Actor, I have David Strathairn (Nomadland) back in the predicted quintet and that drops Bill Murray (On the Rocks) to sixth. And I am starting to buy into the theory that Chadwick Boseman could be victorious in that race for Da 5 Bloods with Anthony Hopkins a seeming favorite in Best Actor for The Father. Boseman is now #1 for supporting.
Finally, it was announced that Supernova will campaign Colin Firth for Best Actor with Stanley Tucci in supporting. They are both listed in the top ten, but I believe it’s Tucci that could potentially see a rise from his #8 spot.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 3)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 12)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
14. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
10. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
5. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United State vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
7. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 9)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
8. Connected (PR: 6)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: 7)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 7)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 5)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 5)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
9. Charlatan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. True Mothers (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 4)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
4. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
5. Mulan (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. Ammonite (PR: 5)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 8)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Rebecca (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: 4)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 3)
7. Greyhound (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Dolittle (PR: 10)
And that shakes out to these features nabbing the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, Soul
3 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Mulan
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, New Order, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
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