Who can take the final weekend of August and turn it into a #1 opening? Oh, the Candyman can and likely will when it debuts August 27th. The long in development horror sequel arrives nearly 30 years after the 1992 original scared audiences into avoiding saying its name five times in a row. Nia DaCosta directs from a script cowritten by none other than Jordan Peele. With its source material based on a short story from Clive Barker, it stars Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Teyonah Parris, Nathan Stewart-Jarrett, and Colman Domingo. THE OG Candyman Tony Todd makes an appearance as does Vanessa Estelle Williams from the ’92 tale.
Billed as a direct follow-up to the first and therefore ignoring two sequels that followed in the mid to late 90s, Candyman was first slated for release in June of 2020 before its series of COVID delays. It arrives during a summer where horror fans have had plenty of options and most of them were sequels. I don’t see this generating anywhere near what, say, A Quiet Place Part II or The Conjuring: The Devil Made Do It achieved. I do think if Don’t Breathe 2 managed just over $10 million, this should get beyond that.
Candyman could be poised to capitalize on the familiarity of its title character. That could propel it to a start as high as $20 million. My hunch is that it falls lower in the mid to high teens range (with the caveat that this genre is known to over perform).
And now I dare call its name for a potentially deadly fifth time and say…
Candyman opening weekend prediction: $17.3 million
The picture became a bit clearer in my view this week as The Midnight Sky and News of the World both had their review embargoes lifted. As I see it, News solidified itself as a player in multiple categories including Best Picture. Sky, on the other hand, will likely only contend for some technical races due to its mixed reaction.
My nine estimated BP nominees has stayed remarkably consistent over the past several weeks. We shall see how unscreened late comers such as The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Mauritanian factor in once eyes are on them.
There’s only two significant changes in the main races as I’ve put Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) back in the Actress fold, replacing Meryl Streep in The Prom. We will see if this holds as I always feel a bit skittish about taking Meryl out. In Adapted Screenplay, News of the World returns to the five and that displaces I’m Thinking of Ending Things.
And while I’m not projecting that Sound of Metal will get more than I said last week (Best Actor and Sound nods), it does seem to be a picture on the rise.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
14. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Prom (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 5)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
7. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Supernova
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 8)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
9. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lupin III: The First
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 5)
3. Time (PR: 2)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. Boys State (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 4)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
8. Collective (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. 76 Days (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Charlatan (PR: 9)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Minari (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 3)
7. Mulan (PR: 8)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
7. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
8. “(If Only You Could) See Me” from Mank (PR: 7)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Prom (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 5)
7. Mank (PR: 9)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And my latest estimates have these movies garnering the following numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
I took a little Turkey Day hiatus from my Oscar estimates, but I’m back at it today with fresh predictions! The major categories have stayed the same (albeit with some ranking movement) with one notable exception. In Best Actress, I have moved both Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) out of the top five in favor of Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) and Meryl Streep (The Prom).
We also have changes in both Screenplay races. In Original, Promising Young Woman (which seems to be gaining steam) is elevated over Da 5 Bloods. In Adapted, I’m Thinking of Ending Things gets the 5 spot and replaces News of the World.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll be back at it next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Prom (PR: 14)
14. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
5. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colin Firth, Supernova
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 8)
10. Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. Connected (PR: 5)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 4)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
4. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 7)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
10. 76 Days (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
MLK/FBI
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Charlatan (PR: 10)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life Ahead
The Disciple
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
7. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Minari (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 2)
5. Emma (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
3. Tenet (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 3)
8. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Greyhound
Da 5 Bloods
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 7)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
5. Mulan (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
9. Mank (PR: 10)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, I’m No Longer Here, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Prom, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
We have new #1’s in three of the four acting derbies in my weekly Oscar prediction updates! Let’s break it down:
The reviews for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom have gone out of their way to praise the work of Chadwick Boseman. Best Actor now appears to be a race between the late performer and Anthony Hopkins in The Father. I have had Hopkins listed in first place for months at this point, but this changes today. That said, this is a competition that could come down to the wire.
In Best Actress, I have kept Viola Davis atop the list. However, while critics have lauded her in the title role of Ma Rainey, Vanessa Kirby’s work in Pieces of a Woman seems to gathering buzz. I thought about putting her in the pole position and we’ll see how this plays out in the coming weeks.
Ironically, the placement of Boseman at #1 in Best Actor drops him from 1st to 6th in Supporting Actor for Da 5 Bloods. This currently puts Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) on top for the first time in a seemingly wide open field. I have also dropped David Strathairn (Nomadland) from the five. Additionally, while I am waiting for Warner Bros to confirm, I am putting Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) back in this field as opposed to lead. So it’s him and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) back in the fold.
Last week, the poor reviews for Hillbilly Elegy caused me to take Glenn Close from #1 to #4. Like Supporting Actor, this race looks like anyone’s for the taking. I am elevating the veteran actress back to 1st as I could envision her overdue factor overtaking the bad critical reaction to the film itself. Also I’ve put Helena Zengel (News of the World) back in over Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari).
There’s also a change in Best Director with Florian Zeller (The Father) in for the first time over Lee Isaac Chung (Minari). Finally, there’s some release date news. Amazon Prime has moved Coming 2 America from December 2020 to March 2021. That takes it out of contention (where it could have played in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). And Warner Bros confirmed that Wonder Woman 1984 will receive a Christmas Day HBO Max streaming premiere. I don’t yet have it in the final five, but it could show up in Visual Effects.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 10)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Midnight Sky (PR: 14)
14. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
15. First Cow (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
9. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: 10)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Supporting)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 5)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 5)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 9)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Connected (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 7)
8. 76 Days (PR: 9)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 3)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m No Longer Here (PR: Not Ranked)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
9. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Charlatan (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
New Order
True Mothers
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Coming 2 America
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
7. Mulan (PR: 5)
8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Coming 2 America
Emma
Ammonite
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 5)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Hear My Voice” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
“Never Break” from Giving Voice
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 8)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Rebecca (PR: 5)
9. Emma (PR: 4)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Soul (PR: 5)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
4. Greyhound (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Mank (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Mank
10 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Connected, Crip Camp, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Back at it again with another round of weekly Oscar predictions and there are changes to be discussed in every major category! We begin with the grand prize – Best Picture. For the third week in a row, we have a new #1 as I’m elevating The Trial of the Chicago 7 to front runner status for the first time. It displaces Nomadland, which falls to 2nd position while Mank goes from 2nd to 3rd.
While Trial gets top billing, I am still placing David Fincher at #1 for director as I believe that could be a bit of a career achievement recognition. As stated last week, I do think Chloe Zhao could be hot on his heels. It does feel a bit strange to have Trial as the Picture favorite while not believing Aaron Sorkin will take Director, but here we are in this strange 2020 Oscar season. Speaking of that race, I now have Lee Isaac Chung for the fast rising Minari over Paul Greengrass for News of the World.
Moving on, the review embargo lifted this week for Hillbilly Elegy and the results weren’t pretty. The Netflix title stands at just 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and that takes it out of my top 15 for Picture and top 10 in Adapted Screenplay. It also hurts the chances of its leads. Amy Adams drops out of the top 5 for Actress and that’s to the benefit of another Netflix entry with Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. Glenn Close has been listed at #1 in Supporting Actress since I began these posts in late August. This too has changed in a currently wide open Supporting Actress field. She drops from #1 to #4, but the irony is I still think she could win. However, it’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank that vaults to #1 with Olivia Colman (The Father) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) following. There’s another move in Supporting Actress with Yuh-Joun Youn for Minari in over Helena Zengel for News of the World.
In Best Actor, it’s Riz Ahmed back in the final five and that takes out Kingsley Ben-Adir in One Night in Miami. In Supporting Actor, I have David Strathairn (Nomadland) back in the predicted quintet and that drops Bill Murray (On the Rocks) to sixth. And I am starting to buy into the theory that Chadwick Boseman could be victorious in that race for Da 5 Bloods with Anthony Hopkins a seeming favorite in Best Actor for The Father. Boseman is now #1 for supporting.
Finally, it was announced that Supernova will campaign Colin Firth for Best Actor with Stanley Tucci in supporting. They are both listed in the top ten, but I believe it’s Tucci that could potentially see a rise from his #8 spot.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 3)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 12)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
14. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
10. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
5. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United State vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
7. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 9)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
8. Connected (PR: 6)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: 7)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 7)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 5)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 5)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
9. Charlatan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. True Mothers (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 4)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
4. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
5. Mulan (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. Ammonite (PR: 5)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 8)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Rebecca (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: 4)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 3)
7. Greyhound (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Dolittle (PR: 10)
And that shakes out to these features nabbing the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, Soul
3 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Mulan
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, New Order, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
My weekly Oscar predictions begin with a blogger’s note. For the past two and a half months, I’ve been providing these updates each Thursday. This will now switch to every Friday (busy work schedule is the reason).
And we move on with a significant development in the rankings. For the first time since I began these predictions, the #1 slot for Best Picture is not named Mank. The David Fincher Netflix pic had its official review embargo lift today. Some of the critical reaction is excellent. Other write-ups, while still overwhelmingly positive, call into question whether this will take the biggest prize of all. It certainly still could in my estimation, but I’m currently giving an ever so slight advantage to Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland (and with The Trial of the Chicago 7 not far behind). I am still listing Fincher in top position with Director as I could envision a victory being a partial career achievement award. That said, Zhao is right on his heels as she would be the second female filmmaker ever to take the gold.
We continue to Best Actor as Amazon has confirmed the acting placements for the performers in Regina King’s One Night in Miami. Of note is that Kingsley Ben-Adir will be campaigned for in Best Actor with Leslie Odom Jr. vying for Supporting Actor. In my view, this increases the chances for both to make the cut as they won’t be competing against each other. Odom was already on my Supporting list last week. Ben-Adir jumps into the Actor final five and that’s to the detriment of Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. Kaluuya could absolutely still get in, but there’s uncertainty as to whether he will be campaigned for in Actor or Supporting Actor. There’s also no confirmation yet as to when Warner Bros. will release the picture. So for now, he’s on the outside looking in until further information is provided.
The Actress and Supporting Actress contests remain the same without even any ranking alterations. That’s not to indicate those races aren’t fluid. There just wasn’t anything major in the past week to shift my thinking in the past 8 days.
Finally, Disney has delayed the release dates of both Death on the Nile and Free Guy to 2021 TBD. The former was a potential nominee in several tech races such as Costume Design and Production Design. The latter could have been a hopeful in Visual Effects.
And with that, let’s get to the guesstimates!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Minari (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
14. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 9)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 4)
4. Onward (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. Lupin III: The First (PR: 8)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 2)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
9. 76 Days (PR: 8)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
8. True Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wife of a Spy
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Rebecca (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 10)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Mulan (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 4)
5. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 10)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. Rebecca (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 6)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 4)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: 8)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Invisible Man
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
10. Dolittle (PR: 9)
And this equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Tenet
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Rebecca
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, My Little Sister, New Order, On the Rocks, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
As October comes to a close, the Aretha Franklin biopic elected to shift its release date to August 2021. That takes it out of contention for this Oscar season. I have had Jennifer Hudson’s performance as the iconic singer in my top five for a couple of weeks. Her departure makes way for Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit in the predicted group in a still crowded lead Actress field.
My shifts continue as, after putting Daniel Kaluuya’s work for Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting category, I’m putting him back in Best Actor. Hopefully Warner Bros. will clear this up soon as the pic still doesn’t have a firm release date. He enters the top five to the detriment of Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal.
His departure from Supporting Actor vaults Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7 to first position. It’s worth mentioning that Netflix has confirmed that the sprawling cast for Aaron Sorkin’s historical drama will all be campaigned for in that race. I have also swapped out Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami for his costar Leslie Odom, Jr. The changes continue as I’m now becoming more convinced that the late Chadwick Boseman will be a double nominee for both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in lead and for supporting with Da 5 Bloods.
There’s also a switch in Supporting Actress as I’m taking out Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) and replacing her with Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman.
All these changes and more are below with my latest round of Thursday predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 11)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
14. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
10. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 9)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary J. Blige, Respect
Audra McDonald, Respect
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 7)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The-Forty-Year-Old-Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
9. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Next Goal Wins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
4. Boys State (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
I Am Greta
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 3)
3. Another Round (PR: 2)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
8. Wife of a Spy (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: 9)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Death on the Nile (PR: 9)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. Rebecca (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 9)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
3. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Emma (PR: 3)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Death on the Nile
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. News of the World (PR: 2)
4. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
10. Ammonite (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Over the Moon
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. ” Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
10. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 4)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Rebecca (PR: 7)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Death on the Nile
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Greyhound (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Invisible Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greyhound (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And this equates to the following pictures getting these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Tenet
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Coming 2 America, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, New Order, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers
The big news of the week when it comes to Oscar forecasting unquestionably involves Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, the forthcoming Netflix feature starring Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman. The studio has confirmed that the late Mr. Boseman will contend in the lead actor race and that upends my predictions in both that category and Supporting Actor. For weeks, I have had Boseman listed in 1st position in the latter. He now moves to #2 in lead behind Anthony Hopkins in The Father.
This significant move shifts my thinking when it comes to other performers. Most notably, I am now guesstimating that Warner Bros. will campaign for Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting field. To be clear, this is not confirmed and is simply speculation. However, that alteration means Kaluuya is now listed in first for Supporting Actor. This activity also means Boseman could potentially be a double nominee as Netflix is likely to mount a campaign for him with Da 5 Bloods in supporting. I have not listed him in the top ten, but it could certainly happen. The same dynamic applies to Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In the coming weeks, we will see if Boseman and Turman materialize in the top ten Supporting Actor players.
While the Actor derbies see those changes (which include Bill Murray now making the cut in Supporting Actor for On the Rocks, out tomorrow on Apple TV), Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress have remained the same.
And with that, let’s see how I have each contest shaping up!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. The Father (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)
10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 9)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 8)
9. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – moved to Best Actor
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
4. Boys State (PR: 5)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. I Am Greta (PR: Not Ranked)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Welcome to Chechnya
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 9)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 5)
7. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wife of a Spy (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Ema
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 6)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 5)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 8)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
7. Mulan (PR: 6)
8. Respect (PR: 7)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
4. Mank (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Over the Moon (PR: 10)
7. Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
10. “Carry Me with You” from Onward (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Rebecca (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
4. Mank (PR: 7)
5. Soul (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Mulan
2 Nominations
Coming 2 America, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Sacha Baron Cohen’s most famous and profitable alter ego returns this Friday via Amazon Prime with the release of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Or more specifically… Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (you can see why I abbreviated). The sequel to the surprise 2006 blockbuster was a surprise in itself as it was shot secretly this year.
If you’re asking whether the pic warrants an Oscar Watch post, I’ll remind you what happened 14 years ago. The original Borat scored a nod at the Academy Awards for Best Adapted Screenplay (losing to The Departed). At the Golden Globes, the film itself made final cut in Best Musical/Comedy (losing to Dreamgirls) and Baron Cohen was victorious in Best Actor in that Musical/Comedy race.
The review embargo ended today and the results are mostly, well, very nice. With a current ranking of 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, the general consensus is that it doesn’t quite the match the original but that it’s quite funny and often shocking and unexpectedly sweet. The latter description probably won’t be shared by Rudy Giuliani as headlines are suggesting he won’t like what ends up onscreen.
So could the sequel generate awards buzz? I have a hard time seeing part 2 contending in Adapted Screenplay. Yet the Globes could be a different story. Depending on how competitive the Musical/Comedy field is for Actor, Baron Cohen could find himself among the possibilities. It’s also worth mentioning that his costar Maria Bakalova (as the title character’s daughter) is getting some raves. Unfortunately for her, the Globes do not separate Drama and Musical/Comedy in the supporting races. I do think there’s an outside chance she gets some Oscar attention, but I wouldn’t count on it.
While the second Borat pic… or movie… or Moviefilm… may not garner Oscar love, its star still could. He is expected to be in the mix for Supporting Actor in The Trial of the Chicago 7 alongside his costars Mark Rylance and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (how many get in remains to be seen). My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
A common (and sometimes warranted) complaint about Aaron Sorkin is that he needs a good editor for his dialogue. He absolutely has one in the presence of Alan Baumgarten in The Trial of the Chicago 7, his true life based drama that recounts a riveting and devastatingly unfair courtroom proceeding. With its sprawling ensemble cast, we see sequences from scene one where the principals are finishing each other’s sentences. Most of the players are on the same page in theory as they seek to disrupt the 1968 Democratic National Convention while the Vietnam War roils on. How they achieve their point is where they diverge and Sorkin’s screenplay expertly shows that not all forms of protest seek to follow the same playbook. They may be using similar words, but their calls to action are often with different actions in mind.
Months after the convention, the newly sworn in Nixon administration wants to establish a law and order attitude that its leader was elected on in those turbulent times. The new Attorney General charges his prosecutors (led by Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s Richard Schultz) to try a group of defendants who led unconnected factions in the summer of ’68. Abbie Hoffman (Sacha Baron Cohen) and Jerry Rubin (Jeremy Strong) are the Yippies with their colorful outfits and outright disregard for authority. Eddie Redmayne’s Tom Hayden heads up a more organized antiwar effort that looks to change politics via the ballot box. David Dellinger (John Carroll Lynch) is a pacifist whose non-aggression stances included even World War II. And somehow Black Panther leader Bobby Seale (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II) is among the arrested group even though he was in Chicago briefly and has never met the other men.
The trial is presided by Judge Julius Hoffman (Frank Langella), whose scorn for the accused is laid bare in his comments and rulings. There is a sequence, taken from history, where Seale is literally bound and gagged before the jurors and the American public. That was a shock to the collective system a half century ago and it plays that way today onscreen. His silencing is due to his lawyer not being present as he tries to represent himself. The rest of the group is defended by William Kunstler (Mark Rylance), a true believer in the cause who must navigate his way through his clients personalities and the judge who truly believes the opposite of his views.
For a director and writer who pens long passages of dialogue, Sorkin’s Trial is engrossing as we realize what’s not allowed to be said during it. Langella sinks his teeth into the part and you may find yourself verbally objecting to him. The cast’s standouts are the beleaguered Rylance and Baron Cohen. The latter is an inspired choice as he’s the most edgy actor of the bunch portraying the edgiest defendant in the mix (and perhaps the wisest overall). An interplay between his Hoffman and Hayden about the future of liberalism and how to make significant change could be an argument had in 2020. The real star of this movie might be the aforementioned Baumgarten, who cuts the flashbacks to what’s being talked about in court with engrossing efficiency.
There’s a lot of history (some of it altered for dramatic effect) to be unpacked in the 130 minute runtime. This is weighty enough subject matter that Sorkin’s patented righteous indignation doesn’t feel forced. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is right in his wheelhouse and my verdict is that it’s well worth experiencing this fascinating chapter.
