Taika Waititi’s latest dramedy is Klara and the Sun and it’s out October 23rd. Based on the Kazuo Ishiguro 2021 novel, Jenna Ortega stars in the sci-fi tale with Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne providing support.
After its premiere at the London Film Festival, negative word-of-mouth start peeking out. Sun now sports a 25% Rotten Tomatoes score with 27 on Metacritic. This will struggle mightily to find an audience. There is little hope this will approach the $33 million domestic gross that greeted the filmmaker’s awards player Jojo Rabbit in 2019.
My forecast puts this in line with Waititi’s 2023 predecessor Next Goal Wins. The soccer tale also whiffed with critics and underperformed with a mere $2.5 million in its opening. I don’t see a compelling argument for Sun eclipsing it.
Klara and the Sun opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
Stop-motion animated fantasy Wildwood is the latest effort for distributor Laika and their first this decade. Directed by Travis Knight, the voice cast includes Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant. Following its premiere at the London Film Festival, it hits domestic screens on October 23rd.
Critics are on it side and it could be a frontrunner for Best Animated Feature prize at the Oscars. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 86 on Metacritic. Laika’s projects are typically acclaimed and all five previous features have been Academy nominated in its genre category. That hasn’t always translated to box office dollars stateside.
In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings (also directed by Knight) debuted with $12.6 million and that’s under what predecessors Coraline, ParaNorman, and The Boxtrolls started off with. That trio all premiered between $14-17 million. The last Laika tale, 2019’s Missing Link, was a major commercial failure with $5.9 million out of the gate.
I’m expecting Wildwood to do better, but not much better.
It’s been seven years since Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit was an Academy favorite with an Adapted Screenplay win for the filmmaker and five other noms including Best Picture. His follow-ups have been Thor: Love and Thunder (one of the MCU’s lower rated entries) and soccer flick Next Goal Wins which was met with a shrug.
Klara and the Sun, based on Kazuo Ishiguro’s 2021 novel, is his latest. The futuristic sci-fi dramedy stars Jenna Ortega with a supporting cast including Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne. It premiered at the London Film Festival with stateside distribution set for October 23rd.
Critics are taking a dim look at Sun. Rotten Tomatoes is at 27% with Metacritic even worse at 25. Judging from some reviews, this could end up on Worst of 2026 lists. Some write-ups are sparing Ortega from the incoming, but this will not be contending at any awards shows other than perhaps the Razzies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In the two weeks that have gone by since my last update, the New York and London Film Festivals have given us our first looks at Behemoth!, Artificial, Wildwood, and Ray Gunn. We also had the dismal box office openings and mixed critical reaction for Digger and The Social Reckoning.
So what’s the verdict? Artificial has moved up in my estimation, especially for Andrew Garfield in Supporting Actor where it was recently confirmed he would be placed. Behemoth!, despite some decent buzz, falls out of Best Picture with Elsinore jumping into the BP ten for the first time. The Elsinore bump extends to Andrew Scott who rises to #1 in Best Actor.
Wildwood solidifies itself as the Animated Feature frontrunner with Ray Gunn probably faring well enough to make the quintet of nominees (though not a threat to win).
The Social Reckoning is likely DOA. Digger is more complicated. Yes, the reviews were decidedly all over the place. Yet the actors branch may choose to reward Tom Cruise for his work and, frankly, for taking a giant creative swing. He had moved out of my Best Actor quintet several weeks ago, but now he’s back in at the expense of Robert Pattinson (Primetime).
You can read all the movement below and my next update will be in approximately two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+2)
6. The Debut (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Elsinore (PR: 14) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (E)
12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)
13. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Possible Love (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Digger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (+1)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3.Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (E)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 6) (-4)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Club Kid
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Being Heumann (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Fatherland (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Everytime (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (E)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hoppers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions & Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In Waves
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. One in a Million (PR: 5) (-1)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)
8. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. 14th (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Nuisance Bear
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael
The Invite
Digger
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-4)
10. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime
Digger
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wicker (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rose (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Bride! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wildwood (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Didn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write A Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Too Muck to Ask” from Ray Gunn
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Werwulf
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Whalefall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Sheep Detectives
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
15 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, The Invite
3 Nominations
Digger, Elsinore, Obsession
2 Nominations
Artificial, Disclosure Day, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Fatherland, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Werwulf, Wicker, You Can See Everything
Stop-motion indie animation studio Laika is 5 for 5 when it comes to nominations for Best Animated Feature and 0 for 5 in podium trips. Each time they have lost to Disney. In 2009, Laika’s inaugural project Coraline went down to Up. Three years later, ParaNorman fell short to Brave while 2014’s The Boxtrolls couldn’t beat out Big Hero 6. In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings didn’t catch Zootopia. Missing Link in 2019 was an honorable mention to Toy Story 4.
That dynamic may finally change in 2026. Travis Knight, who directed Kubo, is back with the studio (months after the live-action Masters of the Universe debacle) via Wildwood. The dark fantasy, based on a 2011 novel, has premiered at the London Film Festival and arrives theatrically on October 23rd. Voiceover artists include Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant.
For the last several weeks on the blog, I’ve had Wildwood listed at #1 in Animated Feature based mostly on hunch. There’s also the matter of Disney’s Toy Story 5 and Hoppers not seeming like win contenders. Early WOM from London encourages my notion. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with several reviews calling it Laika’s strongest entry thus far. I would be surprised if it didn’t remain my frontrunner in the animated field moving forward.
Can Wildwood branch out elsewhere? The short answer is yes. A solid campaign could open up Adapted Screenplay or Visual Effects. The score is being complimented and the Decemberists have an original song titled “The Better Part of Bravery”. I also could see this being a lone Animated Feature player and the first that gets past the Mouse House. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Since Best Animated Feature became a category at the Oscars in 2001, Brad Bird is 3 for 3 in terms of nominations and 2 for 3 in terms of wins. His tenure with Disney/Pixar led to victories for 2004’s The Incredibles and 2007’s Ratatouille while 2018’s Incredibles 2 was in contention but fell short to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. His debut, 1999’s The Iron Giant, would have certainly been up had the competition existed.
Bird’s latest is Ray Gunn and it has premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its December 4th limited theatrical release and December 18th Netflix bow. Said to be the filmmaker’s dream project, the sci-fi noir mystery features the voices of Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Waits, Matt Berry, Bobby Cannavale, Michelle Rodriguez, Matt Jones, Aasif Mandvi, Alan Tudyk, and Kathryn Hunter.
Word-of-mouth across the pond gives Gunn a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. A closer look at the write-ups reveal plenty of recommendations with reservations. Bird’s first effort in nearly a decade should have enough goodwill to get in the Animated Feature quintet, but I’m skeptical that a win narrative exists. There’s another London premiere that does have that narrative and its Oscar Prediction post is imminent.
Netflix will campaign the song “Too Muck to Ask” (performed by Johansson in the pic) in Original Song and Michael Giacchino is behind the score. Both are worth considering if they manage to make their respective shortlists though I’ve yet to seriously consider either for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.
The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.
Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.
The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.
You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)
12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Michael
Ink
Club Kid
You Can See Everything
The Social Reckoning
Werwulf
Being Heumann
Primetime
Josephine
Sense and Sensibility
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
Curry Barker, Obsession
Danny Boyle, Ink
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Seth Rogen, The Invite
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
Sandra Hüller, Digger
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Eva Victor, Behemoth!
Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
John Goodman, Digger
Skyler Gisondo, Primetime
Riz Ahmed, Digger
Channing Tatum, Josephine
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Silent Friend
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All of a Sudden
Fjord
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
You Can See Everything
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wild Horse Nine
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)
4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
10 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite
5 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
NuestraTierra (or Landmarks) marks the first documentary from acclaimed Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. It focuses on colonialism issues in her native country.
First screened at the Venice Film Festival in late August, Tierra moved to the London fest where it won Best Film last month. The doc continued its circuit run with the NYC fest and has racked up solid reviews along the way with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic.
While I haven’t featured it prominently in my 10 possibilities for Best Documentary Feature, the resume is there for Tierra to make a move. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
H Is for Hawk is based on an acclaimed 2014 memoir by Helen MacDonald with Claire Foy playing the author. Philippa Lowthorne directs the drama with a supporting cast including Brendan Gleeson, Denise Gough, Sam Spruell, and Lindsay Duncan. Slated for domestic distribution by Roadside Attractions in December, Hawk has already played the Telluride and London festivals.
Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% based on the few reviews out. While write-ups for the film are more on the positive with reservations side, Foy is being lauded. The Emmy winner for The Crown likely came very close to an Academy nom in Supporting Actress for 2018’s First Man. However, Roadside is not known for attracting awards voters in their campaigns. I’ve yet to have Foy in my top 10 possibilities for lead Actress. Unless precursors surprisingly start including her, don’t expect that to change. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on a 2016 graphic novel by Isabel Greenberg, the historical fantasy 100 Nights of Hero played the Venice Film Festival and closed London’s as it moves toward a December 5th domestic release. Julia Jackman directs and adapted the source material for the big screen with Emma Corrin, Nicholas Galitzine, Maika Monroe, Amir El-Masry, Charli XCX, Richard E. Grant, and Felicity Jones in the cast.
Many critics are appreciating what’s called a feminist fable to the tune of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Metacritic stands at 70 which illustrates the more measured tone of some reviews. IFC is distributing and they don’t exactly have a track record when it comes to awards campaigning. So while a down-the-line race like Production Design might be a possibility in the care of another studio, I don’t think Hero will be on the minds of voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
