2020 Oscar Nominations Reaction

To Oscar prognosticators like yours truly, today was like Christmas morning as nominations were unwrapped early for the 93rd Annual Academy Awards, airing April 25th. Some things never change with the prediction game. There were categories where I was perfect (3 of them) and, as has become tradition, a dreaded race where I whiffed at 2/5.

As was the most likely scenario, Mank led all films with 10 nominations. Yet it did so by missing some key races that are usually needed to nab a Best Picture victory. This was followed by six pictures garnering six mentions: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Some of those over performed. Others – not so much.

Overall this blogger went 80/104 on estimates and in this topsy turvy year, I’ll take it. Let’s break it down race by race, shall we?

Best Picture

Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 7/9

The magic number of nominees ended up being 8 and I projected 9. I’ll say again… I’m very happy that the Academy is going with a set 10 again beginning in 2022. This means it was Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami that missed and The Father (which had a solid showing) in. Judas, Minari and Sound of Metal proved their anticipated status as late bloomers making the cut.

Best Director

Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

How I Did: 4/5

The Academy made history today when they nominated two women in Director for the first time. This was expected, but it is worth noting that Regina King (One Night in Miami) was a contender who missed the cut. That’s not where I went wrong as Vinterberg came out of nowhere to get a spot. While Another Round is expected to emerge victorious in International Feature Film, its director became the rare nominee to get in without a Best Picture slot. And despite being nominated for his writing, Aaron Sorkin (Trial) couldn’t get into this one.

Best Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I can’t put myself on the back too much here. This was widely seen as the most probable quintet and it remained true to form. Potential surprise picks like Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Golden Globe Musical/Comedy winner Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) didn’t materialize.

Best Actor

Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Again, no shockers here. Any late momentum by Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) or Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) was squashed and Boseman stands tall as the major frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

How I Did: 4/5

For the past couple of weeks, there have been six likely nominees and only five spots. I went with Golden Globe winner Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) over Seyfried. Fun fact: Foster is the first Globe winner from this category in 44 years to not land an Oscar mention. This is a wide open acting race (more so than the others by far).

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

How I Did: 4/5

The morning’s biggest surprise is the inclusion of Stanfield with his Judas costar Kaluuya. That has nothing to do with performance itself as Warner Bros. actually campaigned for Stanfield in Best Actor. The Academy simply ignored that and chose to put him here. In other words, this is the nomination that nobody saw coming. His inclusion prevented Boseman from being a double nominee for Da 5 Bloods (which had an almost nonexistent showing).

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 4/5

No Mank is the headline here as Sound of Metal grabbed the spot. This omission is what makes a Mank BP victory highly doubtful.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger

How I Did: 3/5

Ma Rainey‘s bleaker than expected morning continued with no love here. Same goes for The Mauritanian (which goose egged today). In their place? Borat and The White Tiger.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers

How I Did: 4/5

It was Sheep over The Croods: A New Age in a competition where Disney/Pixar’s Soul should dominate.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time

How I Did: 3/5

This category (unpredictable usually) was a real head scratcher in 2020. I had Dick Johnson Is Dead and Welcome to Chechnya in over Crip Camp and The Mole Agent. This is a toughie to project, but I’ll say Time might have an edge.

Best International Feature Film

Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?

How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)

The dreaded 2/5 came here with Better Days, double nominee Collective, and the charmingly titled The Man Who Sold His Skin in over my picks of Dear Comrades!, La Llorona, and Two of Us. This looks like Round‘s race to lose at press time.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 4/5

Judas over Minari was where I went wrong, but not shocking considering the former’s very good day. You may have noticed this is the first mention of News of the World, which picked up four tech nods but got zilch in the big derbies.

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio 

How I Did: 4/5

Not many were saying Pinocchio would play here, but it nosed out my Ammonite selection.

Best Film Editing

Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 4/5

This is another high profile miss for Mank as The Father was selected instead. Of its six nods, this and Original Screenplay is where Trial has the best shot at gold.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio

How I Did: 4/5

And here’s a scenario where I was saying Mank would miss. It didn’t as it edged out Birds of Prey, which was called out zero times this morning.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

How I Did: 4/5

Here marks the sole mention for Bloods in a race where it wasn’t anticipated. It got in over my pick of The Midnight Sky. Like Animated Feature, expect Soul to reign supreme here.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “lo Si” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

How I Did: 4/5

The chances of Will Ferrell and Rachel McAdams belting out their ballad from the Netflix comedy Eurovision became a reality! It makes the cut over “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (which also missed Documentary Feature).

Best Production Design

Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

How I Did: 3/5

This is where Mank stands its greatest chance at a victory among the ten nods. The Father and Tenet (both kind of unexpected here) get in over The Midnight Sky and The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Sound

Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I’ll take it and the winner will probably be the one with the category name in its title.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet

How I Did: 3/5

The One and Only Ivan was my runner-up. Love and Monsters, on the other hand, was not expected. They get in over Mank and Welcome to Chechnya. 

To recap, the following pictures nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:

10 Nominations

Mank

6 Nominations

The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Promising Young Woman

4 Nominations

News of the World

3 Nominations

One Night in Miami, Soul

2 Nominations

Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Collective, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Pinocchio, Tenet

1 Nomination

Better Days, Crip Camp, Da 5 Bloods, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Love and Monsters, The Man Who Sold His Skin, The Midnight Sky, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Time, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, The White Tiger, Wolfwalkers

Quick tidbits:

  • 12 of the 20 acting nominees are first-timers (Day, Kirby, Ahmed, Boseman, Yeun, Bakalova, Seyfried, Youn, Cohen, Odom, Raci, Stanfield)
  • 3 are previous nominees (Mulligan, Close, Kaluuya)
  • 5 are previous winners (Davis, McDormand, Hopkins, Oldman, Colman)
  • Of the five directors, only Fincher has been nominated before and none have won

So this begins the next phase of my Oscar predicting as I will do a “Case Of” post individually for all the Picture, Director, and acting nominees. Yes, that means 33 posts in the next several weeks where I outline the pros and cons of each nominee taking the gold or coming up cold. Stay tuned!

2020 Oscar Predictions: March 8th Edition

February 21st was the last date I published Oscar predictions and a lot has changed since then. We have had the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The PGA nominations came out today. All of those events have altered categories below. This also serves as the penultimate estimates as the actual nominations come out a week from today!

Let me break down the big changes in the major races:

  • In Best Picture, it’s Judas and the Black Messiah in my projected nine nominees. I have finally eliminated Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods from the mix. Contrary to several prognosticators and despite its notable PGA omission, I still have News of the World on my board. Titles like Sound of Metal and The Father still lurk.
  • Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) makes her first appearance for Best Director and that drops Regina King (One Night in Miami)
  • Steven Yeun (Minari) vaults into the Actor race with Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) falling. In fact, I now only have Bloods getting one nomination and that’s Chadwick Boseman in Supporting Actor. I’m not super confident in that anymore since he appears to a heavy favorite to win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • The fifth slot for Supporting Actor is now filled by David Strathairn (Nomadland) over Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
  • Maria Bakalova’s comedic work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm nabs the fifth Supporting Actress spot over Helena Zengel (News of the World).

In addition to these changes, we have new number ones in Best Picture (Nomadland over Trial), Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya from Judas and the Black Messiah over Sacha Baron Cohen in Trial), and Supporting Actress (The Father‘s Olivia Colman over Hillbilly Elegy‘s Glenn Close).

Now… about Supporting Actress. While Boseman, Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), and Kaluuya can rightly be called front runners in their respective categories, I’ve never seen Supporting Actress more wide open. I have Colman listed at #1 because she’s the only performer that I’m saying gets a nod with relative confidence. There’s no favorite (or favourite if you will) at the moment. Maybe the SAG Awards will help clear it up. Doubtful.

You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions up this Friday!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 6)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)

8. News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

11. The Father (PR: 11)

12. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

First Cow

Another Round

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)

5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 7)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

10. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)

7. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

9. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 7)

10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

5. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)

8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

3. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)

4. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

6. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)

8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

7. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)

8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 8)

9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

10. Alan Kim, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

8. Soul (PR: 9)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)

10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Cow (PR: 5)

7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)

8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

9. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Emma

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Onward (PR: 4)

4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)

8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)

10, Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Demon Slayer

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Time (PR: 1)

2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 2)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 5)

5. Boys State (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Collective (PR: 6)

7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

9. 76 Days (PR: 9)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Collective (PR: 5)

4. Two of Us (PR: 4)

5. A Sun (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. La Llorona (PR: 9)

7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)

9. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

5. Minari (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 7)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities: 

6. News of the World (PR: 9)

7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

9. The Glorias (PR: 8)

10. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Father (PR: 6)

7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

8. Tenet (PR: 7)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

One Night in Miami

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 4)

4. Mank (PR: 3)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)

7. The Glorias (PR: 7)

8. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 10)

9. The Little Things (PR: 9)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Tenet (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Minari (PR: 5)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

9. Ammonite (PR: 10)

10. The Little Things (PR: 8)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “lo Si” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)

7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)

8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)

9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 8)

10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

3. News of the World (PR: 4)

4. Mulan (PR: 9)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 7)

7. Emma (PR: 2)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)

10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 4)

4. Mank (PR: 3)

5. Greyhound (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

9. Soul (PR: 8)

10. Mulan (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 5)

5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)

7. Soul (PR: 6)

8. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)

9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)

10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)

This equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers:

13 Nominations

Mank

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

Minari

5 Nominations

Judas and the Black Messiah

4 Nominations

One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman

3 Nominations

The Father, Mulan, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Soul, Welcome to Chechnya

1 Nomination

Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Da 5 Bloods, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: February 21st Edition

It’s a good week for News of the World and Minari and not so much for The Father with my latest Oscar prediction updates. News is back in my estimated nine Picture nominees and that drops The Father out. Da 5 Bloods is clinging ever so slightly to the nine spot with Judas and the Black Messiah, The Father, and Sound of Metal hot on its heels.

In Director, I’m replacing Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) over Florian Zeller (The Father). In Supporting Actress, Helena Zengel’s Globes/SAG nominated turn in News of the World makes the final cut replacing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm).

And there’s a new #1 in Actress with Carey Mulligan nabbing the pole position over Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.

You can read about all the movement below! And on a side note, I will have winner predictions for the Golden Globes (airing February 28) up later this week.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. Minari (PR: 6)

7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

8. News of the World (PR: 11)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

11. The Father (PR: 8)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)

8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)

9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)

8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)

8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)

8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 7)

9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. Minari (PR: 4)

5. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 5)

9. Soul (PR: 8)

10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

4. The Father (PR: 3)

5. First Cow (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. Emma (PR: 10)

10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hillbilly Elegy

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)

8. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

9. Demon Slayer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Trolls World Tour

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Time (PR: 2)

2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 1)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. Boys State (PR: 4)

5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Collective (PR: 6)

7. Crip Camp (PR: 5)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

9. 76 Days (PR: 9)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. A Sun (PR: 3)

4. Two of Us (PR: 4)

5. Collective (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)

7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 8)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 9)

9. La Llorona (PR: 7)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 5)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

7. Tenet (PR: 6)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 3)

3. Emma (PR: 2)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

8. The Glorias (PR: 8)

9. News of the World (PR: 9)

10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 7)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Father (PR: 4)

7. Tenet (PR: 6)

8. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Emma (PR: 5)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)

7. The Glorias (PR: 7)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

9. The Little Things (PR: 10)

10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Minari (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 5)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

8. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

10. Ammonite (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Life Ahead 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)

7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 10)

8. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 9)

9. “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Emma (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 5)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

7. Tenet (PR: 7)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)

9. Mulan (PR: 9)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. News of the World (PR: 5)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

8. Soul (PR: 6)

9. Greyhound (PR: 9)

10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Da 5 Bloods

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

5. Mulan (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Soul (PR: 7)

7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)

8. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)

9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)

10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)

That works out to these pictures grabbing these numbers in term of nominations:

13 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World

6 Nominations

Minari, Nomadland

5 Nominations

One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods

3 Nominations

Emma, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

Another Round, Boys State, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Welcome to Chechnya, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: February 15th Edition

We are now precisely one month away from nominations in this elongated Oscar season! The big development from last week was the release of shortlists in six categories covering feature length titles: Documentary Feature, International Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. That’s why you’ll see significant changes in those races particularly…

Yet that’s not all as I’ve swapped out some performers and movies in five top tier competitions.

  • In Best Picture, Promising Young Woman is in my estimated nine and that takes out News of the World
  • The fifth slot for Best Actress now goes to Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday and this drops Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead
  • For the first time, I’m listing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) in Supporting Actress. That means Ellen Burstyn (who’s missed SAG and Globe nods) is on the outside looking in
  • The screenplay races both have alterations with Never Rarely Sometimes Always in Original Screenplay (over Da 5 Bloods) and First Cow back in Adapted over I’m Thinking of Ending Things

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. Minari (PR: 8)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. The Father (PR: 7)

9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

11. News of the World (PR: 9)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)

8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)

9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)

5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)

8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

7. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 6)

8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 4)

5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Soul (PR: 7)

9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. First Cow (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)

7. News of the World (PR: 6)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

10. Emma (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Demon Slayer

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

2. Time (PR: 1)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. Boys State (PR: 7)

5. Crip Camp (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Collective (PR: 9)

7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

9. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Dissident

Totally Under Control

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. A Sun (PR: 5)

4. Two of Us (PR: 4)

5. Collective (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

7. La Llorona (PR: 9)

8. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)

9. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Notturno

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Minari (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Emma (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

8. The Glorias (PR: 9)

9. News of the World (PR: 7)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 4)

4. The Father (PR: 3)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 8)

7. News of the World (PR: 5)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Minari

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

5. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Little Things (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The Trial of the Chicago 7

News of the World

Mulan

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Tenet (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Minari (PR: 8)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hillbilly Elegy

The Little Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 9)

7. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)

9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon

“Only the Young” from Miss Americana

“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Emma (PR: 3)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

5. News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

7. Tenet (PR: 10)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

9. Mulan (PR: 5)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Father

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Tenet (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soul (PR: 6)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Greyhound (PR: 8)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 9)

4. Mulan (PR: 5)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Soul (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Love and Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bloodshot (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Invisible Man

Greyhound

Wonder Woman 1984

Sonic the Hedgehog

The Call of the Wild 

That shakes out to these films getting these numbers in terms of nods:

13 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Minari, News of the World

3 Nominations

Emma, Promising Young Woman, Tenet

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscars Shortlist Analysis

Taylor Swift will not be performing an Oscar nominated track at this April’s ceremony. Sonic the Hedgehog will not be the Oscar nominated Sonic the Hedgehog. Sacha Baron Cohen’s makeup team from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm who transformed him into former President Donald Trump will not see their work recognized.

These are some of the headlines from today’s unveiling of shortlists in six categories covering feature films from the Academy. On the positive side for its respective studios, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could contend in at least three races. A documentary about refugees from Chechnya is a Visual Effects hopeful. And Borat is still on the board for his song “Wuhan Flu”. There were mixed results from the announcements for features such as Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, and The United States vs. Billie Holiday.

Let’s break this all down and what it means for my weekly predictions, shall we?

Best Documentary Feature

Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:

76 Days

All In: The Fight for Democracy

Boys State

Collective

Crip Camp

Dick Johnson Is Dead

Gunda

MLK/FBI

The Mole Agent

My Octopus Teacher

Notturno

The Painter and the Thief

Time

The Truffle Hunters

Welcome to Chechnya

Analysis: 

There are two docs I had in my top ten that missed the cut: The Dissident, which I had ranked all the way up in second and Totally Under Control, which I had sixth. This is a pretty open race in 2020 and I had Time in first position two days ago. All In and Dick Johnson are sturdy contenders as well.

Best International Feature Film

Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:

Another Round

Better Days

Charlatan

Collective

Dear Comrades!

Hope

I’m No Longer Here

La Llorona

The Man Who Sold His Skin

The Mole Agent

Night of the Kings

Quo Vadis, Aida?

A Sun

Sun Children

Two of Us

Analysis:

My only top ten hopeful falling out was my #10 Notturno (which made the Documentary list). No real surprises with Another Round as a soft frontrunner to win.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Ten films were shortlisted as follows:

Birds of Prey

Emma

The Glorias

Hillbilly Elegy

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

The Little Things

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

One Night in Miami

Pinocchio

Analysis:

Two of my predicted nominees from my last round had their possibilities cease today: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The United States vs. Billie Holiday (ranked fourth and fifth respectively). Also dropped: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (#7), News of the World (#8), and Mulan (#9). Ma Rainey will probably remain in my #1 spot with Hillbilly and Mank following.

Best Original Score

Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:

Ammonite

Blizzard of Souls

Da 5 Bloods

The Invisible Man

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

The Life Ahead

The Little Things

Mank

The Midnight Sky

Minari

Mulan

News of the World

Soul

Tenet

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis:

My #6 entry Hillbilly Elegy was a rather notable miss here while my other nine entries are still in the mix. This race could come down to Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor competing against themselves with Soul and Mank.

Best Original Song

Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:

“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy

“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast

“Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

“Never Break” from Giving Voice

“Make It Work” from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah

“Seen” from The Life Ahead

“Rain Song” from Minari

“Show Me Your Soul” from Mr. Soul!

“Loyal Brave True” from Mulan

“Free” from The One and Only Ivan

“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

“Green” from Sound of Metal

“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis:

As mentioned, no Taylor Swift for her track “Only the Young” from Miss Americana. Yet a larger omission was “Over the Moon” from the animated Rocket to the Moon, which I had ranked at #4. Another to miss the cut: “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday, which achieved a Golden Globes nod. “Speak Now” might have an edge, but I wouldn’t count out “Seen”.

Best Visual Effects

Ten films were shortlisted as follows:

Birds of Prey

Bloodshot

Love and Monsters

Mank

The Midnight Sky

Mulan

The One and Only Ivan

Soul

Tenet

Welcome to Chechnya 

Analysis:

Some genuine shockers in VE with my #3 The Invisible Man and #4 Greyhound out of contention. Also missing: Wonder Woman 1984 (#7), Sonic the Hedgehog (#8), and The Call of the Wild (#10). In their places are pics I didn’t have on my radar like Bloodshot and Love and Monsters (the Chechnya nod was at least spoken of in recent days). Soul getting in certainly gives it a solid shot at inclusion, but Tenet and The Midnight Sky still appear to be the heavyweights.

Today’s news will certainly alter what you see when I update my estimates this weekend! Stay tuned…

2020 Oscar Predictions: February 7th Edition

It was a major week in terms of Oscar forecasting as the Golden Globe and SAG nominations were unveiled this week. You can read all about my reactions to both of those announcements right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/02/03/2020-golden-globes-nominations-reaction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/02/04/2020-sag-awards-nominations-reaction/

So… what’s changed? We start in Best Picture with Minari getting back into my estimated nine nominees with Judas and the Black Messiah dropping out. Truth be told, spots 6-11 in the BP derby seem to be constantly moving. Other prognosticators have taken Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods out of the mix after its Globes shutout, but I’m not there yet (especially after its SAG Ensemble nod).

However, I am replacing Spike Lee with Regina King in the Best Director race. In Best Actress, Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) gets the wide open 5 spot over Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie).

The other acting races remain the same as I’ve kept Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) in Supporting Actress despite her snubs from the Globes and SAG. I definitely toyed with including Helena Zengel (News of the World) over her (she was nominated for both) and that still could happen, but not this week.

Even more surprising was the Globe & SAG omissions of Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) in Best Actor. He’s still clinging to #5 in my predicted nominees. In Supporting Actor, everyone was rather shocked to see Jared Leto (The Little Things) make the list in this week’s nominations. He vaults up to #6 in my possibilities in his first initial ranking, but I still can’t pull the trigger on the Academy naming him.

This Tuesday marks another significant date as we march towards the March 15th nominations. The shortlists will be announced for the following races: Best Documentary Feature Film, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. You can count on those lists altering my estimates next weekend, as they always do.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. The Father (PR: 9)

8. Minari (PR: 10)

9. News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Malcolm & Marie

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)

9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)

9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

9. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, The Way Back

John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)

5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)

7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)

8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)

9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. Soul (PR: 7)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 2)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

3. The Father (PR: 4)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. First Cow (PR: 5)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emma (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

French Exit

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)

10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Time (PR: 1)

2. The Dissident (PR: 2)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

5. Crip Camp (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Totally Under Control (PR: 4)

7. Boys State (PR: 6)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)

9. Collective (PR: 7)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)

4. Two of Us (PR: 8)

5. A Sun (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Collective (PR: 5)

7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 6)

9. La Llorona (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Notturno (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

My Little Sister

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 10)

10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 7)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. The Glorias (PR: 10)

10. Ammonite (PR: 8)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 4)

4. Nomadland (PR: 3)

5. News of the World (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

8. Tenet (PR: 7)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Mulan (PR: 7)

10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pinocchio

The Prom

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Tenet (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

8. Minari (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 4)

5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)

8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)

10. “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

9. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tenet (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 3)

3. Tenet (PR: 2)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soul (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 5)

8. Greyhound (PR: 8)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)

4. Greyhound (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)

9. Mank (PR: 9)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, Mulan, Tenet

2 Nominations

Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Life Ahead, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Night of the Kings, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: January 31st Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions brings us to an important frame ahead as the Golden Globe nominations will be revealed on Wednesday with the SAG nods coming Thursday! When I update my estimates next weekend, don’t be surprised if those unveilings change the narrative of the overall picture here. If you missed my predictions for the Globes and SAG, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/01/30/2020-golden-globe-nomination-predictions/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/01/31/2020-sag-award-nominations-predictions/

As for now, I’m dwindling the list back down from 10 to 9 in the Best Picture derby and just on the outside looking in is Minari. For some context, I feel pretty confident that the top 6 films in my BP guesstimates make the cut. Anything between 7-12… not so much and I expect these titles to likely shift around as we get closer to nomination time.

In Supporting Actor, the fifth slot goes back to Mark Rylance for The Trial of the Chicago 7 over Paul Raci in Sound of Metal. In Adapted Screenplay, Nomadland has now lost the top spot to One Night in Miami.

You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have reaction to the Globe and SAG picks up this week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 10)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. The Father (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Minari (PR: 9)

11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)

9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)

8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 8)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)

10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 10)

10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)

8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)

9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)

10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. Minari (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. Soul (PR: 7)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)

10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Malcolm & Marie

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

2. Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

4. The Father (PR: 3)

5. First Cow (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 6)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. French Exit (PR: 10)

10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hillbilly Elegy

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)

9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)

10. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Trolls World Tour

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Time (PR: 2)

2. The Dissident (PR: 4)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Boys State (PR: 6)

7. Collective (PR: 7)

8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)

9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Welcome to Chechnya

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. A Sun (PR: 4)

4. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

5. Collective (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 6)

7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)

8. Two of Us (PR: 9)

9. My Little Sister (PR: 8)

10. Notturno (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

10. Minari (PR: 8)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)

7. News of the World (PR: 6)

8. Ammonite (PR: 10)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. The Glorias (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Tenet (PR: 7)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 4)

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 3)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

7. Mulan (PR: 6)

8. Pinocchio (PR: 8)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emma

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. Minari (PR: 5)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 4)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)

8. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)

9. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

7. Tenet (PR: 5)

8. Mulan (PR: 6)

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah 

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

5. News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

7. Soul (PR: 7)

8. Greyhound (PR: 10)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)

4. Greyhound (PR: 4)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 5)

7. Mulan (PR: 6)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)

9. Mank (PR: 9)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

This equates to these films garnering these numbers for nods:

12 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

7 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland

5 Nominations

News of the World

4 Nominations

One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Soul, Tenet

1 Nomination

Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: January 24th Edition

My latest round of Oscar estimates keeps my predicted number of Best Picture nominees at the full 10 – with a change. It’s News of the World back in and Promising Young Woman on the outside looking in.

In the other major categories, my picks remain the same with some movement in the rankings. Most notably, in the Supporting Actress field, I am putting Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank back at #1 over Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy.

You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

8. The Father (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 7)

10. News of the World (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 13)

13. Soul (PR: 12)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)

7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)

7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)

9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 10)

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)

9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)

9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 4)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)

4. Minari (PR: 3)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. Soul (PR: 6)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

9. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 4)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

5. First Cow (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

10. French Exit (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)

9. Demon Slayer (PR: 10)

10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mitchells vs. the Machines (formerly Connected)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)

2. Time (PR: 1)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)

4. The Dissident (PR: 2)

5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Boys State (PR: 6)

7. Collective (PR: 7)

8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)

9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)

10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

4. A Sun (PR: 6)

5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 5)

7. Collective (PR: 4)

8. My Little Sister (PR: 8)

9. Two of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Notturno (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Never Gonna Snow Again 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

8. Minari (PR: 7)

9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Malcolm & Marie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 4)

4. Mulan (PR: 3)

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 5)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

9. The Glorias (PR: 9)

10. Ammonite (PR: 8)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. Tenet (PR: 9)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)

4. Mank (PR: 3)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 8)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

8. Pinocchio (PR: 5)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

10. Emma (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

5. Minari (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 8)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Night in Miami

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

7. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)

9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)

10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Wear Your Crown” from The Prom

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 5)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Tenet (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 3)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 6)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

7. Soul (PR: 5)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

10. Greyhound (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)

4. Greyhound (PR: 5)

5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 3)

7. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)

9. Mank (PR: 8)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)

And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers for nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

7 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5 Nominations

News of the World

4 Nominations

Minari, One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul

1 Nomination

Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

2020 Oscar Predictions: January 14th Edition

For the past several years, the magic number has traditionally been nine when it comes to Best Picture nominees. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10 according to the rules, unlike every other category. This changes to a finite 10 starting in 2022. And since August when I began these (mostly) weekly estimates, I’ve kept it at 9.

However, I am expanding it to ten this week as I believe Judas and the Black Messiah could easily make the cut and I just couldn’t take any of the other nine films out. Obviously this may change as we move closer to nomination morning, but that’s where I stand today.

In the major categories, other changes are Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) entering the Best Director mix for the first time and that takes out George C. Wolfe for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In Supporting Actor, I have yet again switched the 5 spot with Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) in and Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) out.

Zendaya’s work in Malcolm & Marie goes from unranked status all the way to #5 and this displaces Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday. 

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

7. Minari (PR: 5)

8. The Father (PR: 7)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)

10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

11. News of the World (PR: 11)

12. Soul (PR: 13)

13. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)

8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)

8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Robin Wright, Land

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)

8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 9)

10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, News of the World

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)

5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)

8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)

8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Stanley Tucci, Supernova

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

3. Minari (PR: 4)

4. Mank (PR: 2)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soul (PR: 6)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

8. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Forty-Year-Old Version

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

4. The Father (PR: 2)

5. First Cow (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 7)

8. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

10. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Emma

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)

8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)

9. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bombay Rose

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Time (PR: 2)

2. The Dissident (PR: 4)

3. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Boys State (PR: 5)

7. Collective (PR: 9)

8. Crip Camp (PR: 7)

9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)

10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

4. Collective (PR: 7)

5. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Sun (PR: 5)

7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 4)

8. My Little Sister (PR: 6)

9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)

10. Notturno (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. Nomadland (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. Minari (PR: 7)

8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

10. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The United States vs. Billie Holiday 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. Mulan (PR: 5)

4. Emma (PR: 3)

5. News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)

8. Ammonite (PR: 10)

9. The Glorias (PR: 9)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

7. News of the World (PR: 5)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

9. Tenet (PR: 10)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Minari

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 6)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)

5. Pinocchio (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

8. Mulan (PR: 8)

9. Emma (PR: 10)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

News of the World

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 4)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

8. Tenet (PR: 6)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 7)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)

9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)

10. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Mulan (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 7)

5. Emma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)

9. Tenet (PR: 8)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

5. Soul (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

10. Greyhound (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Mulan (PR: 4)

4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

5. Greyhound (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)

7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)

8. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Dolittle

And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4 Nominations

Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Judas and the Black Messiah, Mulan, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet

1 Nomination

Another Round, Birds of Prey, Collective, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Night of the Kings, Onward, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: January 4th Edition

My initial 2021 Oscar predictions for the films released in 2020 (and January and February of this year) have arrived! And the new year’s estimates brings the first change in my nine Best Picture nominees in many weeks. Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman now joins the group and that leaves out News of the World.

In Best Director, I have George C. Wolfe now in for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and that drops Lee Isaac Chung for Minari. Another change is in Supporting Actor with Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) back in the final five over Sound of Metal‘s Paul Raci. In Original Screenplay, Da 5 Bloods makes it back ahead of Soul. 

You can read all the movement below! Happy New Year and I’ll be back at it next week…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. Minari (PR: 5)

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

7. The Father (PR: 6)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

11. News of the World (PR: 9)

12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 15)

15. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 4)

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

10. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)

8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)

10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

8. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)

10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)

9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

10. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

4. Minari (PR: 3)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soul (PR: 5)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. The Father (PR: 2)

3. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. First Cow (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 6)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mauritanian 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)

8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)

10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Connected

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

2. Time (PR: 2)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. The Dissident (PR: 4)

5. Boys State (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)

8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)

9. Collective (PR: 8)

10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)

4. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)

5. A Sun (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Little Sister (PR: 4)

7. Collective (PR: 5)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)

9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)

10. Notturno (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 5)

7. Minari (PR: 6)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)

7. News of the World (PR: 6)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 4)

4. The Father (PR: 3)

5. News of the World (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

10. Tenet (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)

5. Pinocchio (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mank (PR: 6)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

8. Mulan (PR: 7)

9. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emma (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 4)

4. Minari (PR: 5)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 8)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 8)

8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 7)

9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)

10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Free” from The One and Only Ivan

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

3. Mulan (PR: 2)

4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)

5. Emma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 9)

8. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. Soul (PR: 7)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 5)

8. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Prom (PR: 9)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Da 5 Bloods

Mulan

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)

7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)

8. Greyhound (PR: 9)

9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mank

And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for films:

11 Nominations

Mank

9 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods

4 Nominations

Minari, One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, News of the World, Promising Young Woman, Soul

2 Nominations

Birds of Prey, Emma, Judas and the Black Messiah, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers