Tag: Rachel Brosnahan

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

    My first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards are underway!

    We are not even a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation. These are my opening glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    That brings us to Best Actress. When I presented my first picks in April of 2025, it produced the most eventual nominees among the quartet of acting races. At this impossibly early stage, I correctly had the eventual winner Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) in the quintet. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were listed in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) was not mentioned.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    This inaugural post has Renate Reinsve getting a second nod in a row for Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Julianne Moore (No One Cares) contending for the first time since her victory in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Mikey Madison, I’m projecting 2024’s victor in the category for Anora will be up again for The Social Reckoning. Then there’s Sandra Hüller. She’s a threat to get in for Fatherland or Rose (for which she’s already won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival). At press time, I’ve got her making the cut for the latter. That’s in addition to my forecast that Hüller nabs a Supporting Actress nomination for Digger.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    Sandra Hüller, Rose

    Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    Amy Adams, At the Sea

    Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    Penélope Cruz, Bunker

    Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

    Mason Reeves, Josephine

    Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Oscar Predictions: Superman

    James Gunn’s Superman reboot flies into theaters this weekend with a new franchise on the line for Warner Bros and high expectations. Davin Corenswet plays the title character with Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane and Nicholas Hoult portraying Lex Luthor. Other costars include Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Wendell Pierce, and Skyler Gisondo.

    It arrives 47 years after the Christopher Reeve saga, which won a special award for its Visual Effects and was also up for its editing and classic score from John Williams. Three sequels failed to generate any nominations. 2006 reboot Superman Returns was up for its visuals, falling short to Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest. The Zack Snyder Supes flicks (Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice) did not factor into the Oscar mix.

    Will Gunn’s take on the icon generate awards chatter? The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 84% with 71 on Metacritic. Critics are all over the place on which cast members shine brightest (though there’s general agreement that Corenswet is strong). That said, above-the-line nods are a major long shot. Gunn is no stranger to the VE competition as all three of his MCU Guardians of the Galaxy features were nominated. This is where Superman has the strongest chance at a nod with Sound and Makeup & Hairstyling less probable. I don’t think inclusion in VE is automatic though don’t be surprised if it populates one of the five slots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Superman Box Office Prediction

    After bringing lesser known superheroes to box office dominance over a decade ago, James Gunn helms a reboot with perhaps the most iconic one via Superman starting July 11th. Warner Bros hopes the latest reboot of the Man of Steel saga flies high with David Corenswet donning the tights, Rachel Brosnahan playing Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult handling villainous duties as Lex Luthor. The supporting cast includes Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Skyler Gisondo, and Wendell Pierce.

    With a reported budget of $225 million, hopes are high for the summer tentpole. Gunn’s contribution as director is in addition to his duties as head of DC Studios. He was given the role after successfully handling three Guardians of the Galaxy features for the MCU. Counting Supergirl, this marks the 10th overall feature in the Supes series that began in 1978.

    The best opening of the bunch is 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice which kicked off with $166 million. #2 on the board is 2013’s last proper restart Man of Steel, which made $116 million in its inaugural weekend. Opening above Justice would be a massive victory for WB while debuting below Steel would be a disappointment.

    I’m guessing the opening will be somewhere in between, but closer to Steel than Justice.

    Superman opening weekend prediction: $128.6 million

    The Amateur Box Office Prediction

    Based on a 1981 novel by Robert Littell that was turned into a movie starring John Savage and Christopher Plummer, 20th Century Studios releases The Amateur on April 11th. The spy thriller is directed by James Hawes with Bohemian Rhapsody Oscar winner Rami Malek headlining. Costars include Rachel Brosnahan (about to appear in the eagerly anticipated Superman), Caitriona Balfe, Jon Bernthal, Michael Stuhlbarg, Holt McCallany, Julianne Nicholson, Adrian Martinez, and Laurence Fishburne.

    Once fashioned as a starring vehicle for Hugh Jackman, The Amateur has less power to capitalize on and seemingly scant buzz. This may struggle to reach $10 million, but I’ll project that it just gets there.

    The Amateur opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million

    For my Drop prediction, click here:

    Drop Box Office Prediction

    For my The King of Kings prediction, click here:

    The King of Kings Box Office Prediction

    For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 prediction, click here:

    The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

    For my Warfare prediction, click here:

    Warfare Box Office Prediction

    Oscar Predictions: Dead for a Dollar

    Half a century ago, Walter Hill wrote the screenplay that turned into the Steve McQueen/Ali MacGraw vehicle The Getaway. 40 years back, he was directing Eddie Murphy in his cinematic debut alongside Nick Nolte in 48 Hrs. Now at age 80, the filmmaker is still active behind the camera.

    His Western Dead for a Dollar has played in Venice prior to its September 30th stateside release. Two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz, Willem Dafoe, and Rachel Brosnahan headline the cast of the late 19th century set pic. Reviews are decent at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes though not strong enough to indicate this will come out and play in any awards category. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Watch: I’m Your Woman

    Rachel Brosnahan has collected an Emmy and two Golden Globes for her small screen work on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. Julia Hart’s 1970s set crime drama I’m Your Woman marks her first starring role in a feature. Prior to its December streaming release from Amazon Studios, the pic screened yesterday at the AFI Fest.

    Reviews thus far are of a mixed nature. Some critics are comparing it to the work of John Cassavates while others aren’t near as kind. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. As has been discussed before on the blog, Best Actress appears to be a crowded field in 2020. While I imagine Amazon will push Brosnahan for attention, I have yet to list her in the top ten possibilities for the race. Based on the varied reaction, I don’t expect that to change and I especially don’t envision a scenario where she approaches the final five. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

    2020 Oscar Predictions: October 1st Edition

    As October begins, my weekly Oscar predictions get a major expansion as I am now including all categories covering feature length films! Additionally, I’m dwindling the listed prospects in all the top races. For Best Picture, it goes from 25 to 15. The directing, acting, and screenplay contests drop from 15 to 10. This is why you’ll see so many movies dropping out of contention.

    Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch is rumored to be moving from the 2020 window. While this has yet to be confirmed, I have taken it out of the running at this time. Obviously once its release date is announced, I’ll adjust accordingly.

    For the tech races and Animated Feature, International Film, and Documentary Feature – I’ve definitely learned that these estimates will be fluid over the next months. This is just a first glimpse at where my head’s at.

    As for developments in the significant categories:

    • Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari makes it debut in my nine predicted Picture nominees and that takes out Pixar’s Soul (which is listed #1 in Animated Feature). The directing players remain the same.
    • I have switched Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami from Supporting Actor to lead. He makes the five and that drops Tom Hanks in News of the World. The Best Actress estimates remain.
    • The Supporting Actress nominees also stay intact. However, Ben-Adir’s shift in Supporting Actor means I am now including three actors from The Trial of the Chicago 7: Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Sacha Baron Cohen. I’m not at all confident this happens, but it’s where I am at the moment. I now have Leslie Odom, Jr. as the representative from One Night in Miami in the race. Lakeith Stanfield moves away from the top five.
    • There are no changes in the screenplay predictions.

    As a bonus, I am including how many nominees from my initial full predictions in 2019 ended up getting nominated in each race to give you an idea of historical accuracy. I will note that I didn’t expand my estimates last year until October 17th, so I did have a bit more to go on.

    And with all that, let’s get to it!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

    2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

    3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

    4. News of the World (PR: 4)

    5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

    6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

    7. The Father (PR: 6)

    8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

    9. Minari (PR: 12)

    Other Possibilities:

    10. Soul (PR: 9)

    11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

    12. Dune (PR: 10)

    13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)

    14. Ammonite (PR: 16)

    15. The White Tiger (PR: 14)

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 8/9

    Dropped Out:

    The French Dispatch

    Stillwater

    The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    Respect

    The Midnight Sky

    Annette

    Next Goal Wins

    Red, White and Water

    C’Mon C’Mon

    French Exit 

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

    2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

    3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

    4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

    5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

    7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

    8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 11)

    9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

    10. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

    Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy 

    Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

    Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger

    Tom McCarthy, Stillwater

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

    2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)

    3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

    4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)

    5. Michele Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

    7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)

    8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

    9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)

    10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    Dropped Out:

    Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

    Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman

    Marion Cotillard, Annette

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

    2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR 2)

    3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

    4. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 5)

    7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)

    8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

    9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 6)

    10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    Dropped Out:

    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Courier

    Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

    Adam Driver, Annette

    Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Ben Affleck, The Way Back

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

    2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)

    4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

    5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)

    7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)

    8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 14)

    9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

    10. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 8)

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

    Dropped Out:

    Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

    Mary J. Blige, Respect

    Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon

    Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

    2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

    3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

    4. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

    5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)

    7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

    8. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 9)

    9. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 12)

    10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 11)

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    Dropped Out:

    Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Lead Actor)

    Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Richard Jenkins, The Humans

    Tom Burke, Mank

    Charles Dance, Mank 

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank (PR: 1)

    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

    3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

    4. Soul (PR: 3)

    5. Minari (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. On the Rocks (PR: 11)

    7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

    8. Ammonite (PR: 9)

    9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)

    10. Stillwater (PR: 8)

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

    Dropped Out:

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Pieces of a Woman

    Red, White and Water

    Never Rarely Sometimes Always 

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

    2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

    3. The Father (PR: 3)

    4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

    5. News of the World (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

    7. Dune (PR: 8)

    8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

    9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)

    10. French Exit (PR: 10)

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    Dropped Out:

    The White Tiger

    Next Goal Wins

    The Humans

    First Cow

    The Midnight Sky

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Soul 

    2. Over the Moon

    3. Wolfwalkers

    4. Onward

    5. The Croods: A New Age

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Willoughbys

    7. Connected

    8. Rumble

    9. Trolls World Tour

    10. Ride Your Wave

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Crip Camp

    2. Boys State

    3. All In: The Fight for Democracy

    4. Dick Johnson is Dead

    5. Spaceship Earth

    Other Possibilities:

    6. John Lewis: Good Trouble

    7. MLK/FBI

    8. The Truffle Hunters

    9. Miss Americana

    10. On the Record

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Quo Vadis, Aida?

    2. The Disciple

    3. Night of the Kings

    4. Ema

    5. Atlantis

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Another Round

    7. The Life Ahead

    8. Young Ahmed

    9. A Sun

    10. Memory House 

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank

    2. Nomadland

    3. News of the World

    4. Dune

    5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Da 5 Bloods

    7. One Night in Miami

    8. Judas and the Black Messiah

    9. Ammonite

    10. Tenet

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank 

    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    3. Emma

    4. Dune

    5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Coming 2 America

    7. Ammonite

    8. News of the World

    9. Mulan

    10. The Personal History of David Copperfield

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    2. Mank

    3. News of the World

    4. Nomadland

    5. Dune

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Da 5 Bloods

    7. One Night in Miami

    8. Tenet

    9. Judas and the Black Messiah

    10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank

    2. Dune

    3. Birds of Prey

    4. Coming 2 America

    5. Mulan

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    7. No Time to Die

    8. Emma

    9. Wonder Woman 1984

    10. Ammonite

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank

    2. Soul

    3. Da 5 Bloods

    4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    5. Dune

    Other Possibilities:

    6. News of the World

    7. The Midnight Sky

    8. One Night in Miami

    9. Over the Moon

    10. Tenet

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

    2. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan

    3. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana

    4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7

    5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    7. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon

    8. “Carried Me with You” from Onward

    9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice

    10. “See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank

    2. Dune

    3. News of the World

    4. Mulan

    5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ammonite

    7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    8. One Night in Miami

    9. Tenet

    10. Judas and the Black Messiah

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tenet

    2. Dune

    3. Soul

    4. Sound of Metal

    5. Respect

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Invisible Man

    7. News of the World

    8. No Time to Die

    9. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    10. Wonder Woman 1984

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: N/A – CATEGORY WAS SPLIT BETWEEN SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING

     

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune

    2. Tenet

    3. Greyhound

    4. Wonder Woman 1984

    5. The Invisible Man

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mulan

    7. The Call of the Wild

    8. No Time to Die

    9. Free Guy

    10. Birds of Prey

    2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

    And that gives us our first breakdown of how many nominations I believe we will see for each picture:

    12 Nominations

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    10 Nominations

    Mank

    8 Nominations

    Dune

    7 Nominations

    News of the World

    6 Nominations

    Nomadland, One Night in Miami

    5 Nominations

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    4 Nominations

    Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Soul

    2 Nominations

    Ammonite, Minari, Mulan, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet

    1 Nomination

    All In: The Fight for Democracy, Atlantis, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson is Dead, The Disciple, Ema, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Miss Americana, Night of the Kings, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Sound of Metal, Spaceship Earth, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

    Back at it next week, folks!

    2020 Oscar Predictions: September 24th Edition

    It’s a new week for Oscar predicting and there’s been some significant developments over the past seven days!

    Of particular note is the news that Steven Spielberg’s remake of West Side Story has been pushed back to December 2021. You will see it drop off all the categories where I had it as a possibility and that includes Picture (where I had it the final 9), Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay.

    I am also jumping off the Dune train for now. Part of this is uncertainty as to whether it will be released by the February deadline. The other part is general uncertainty if it’s Oscar material. Hopefully we will find out sooner than later. I still have it listed as a possibility in Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay, but I’m holding judgment on having it make the final cut.

    Now to the pictures that look like they will be released and we begin with The Trial of the Chicago 7. The Aaron Sorkin courtroom drama held industry screenings this week and the verdict is quite positive. It appears to be a shoo-in for a Picture nomination. I’m still listing it at #3 behind the unscreened Mank and Nomadland, but Trial is a threat to win the whole thing as I see it. Sorkin moves into the top five in directing. He replaces Dune maker Denis Villeneuve.

    As for the actors in Trial, early reaction appears focused on four of them in the sprawling cast: Yahya Abdul Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Frank Langella, and Mark Rylance. I’m currently assuming everyone will be campaigned for in Supporting Actor, but that could always change. For the moment, I have Cohen and Rylance getting in (I struggled with this). In my Oscar Watch post, I even mentioned that three actors could make it. If that were to occur, we would see the first Supporting Actor competition with three performers from the same feature since The Godfather Part II in 1974. My shift to thinking it’s all a supporting play by Netflix takes Eddie Redmayne out of contention in the lead derby.

    My Dune drop and the West Side delay means there are two new pics in my estimated nine Best Picture nominees. The risers are Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Pixar’s Soul.

    In other developments:

    • Sofia Coppola’s On the Rocks, which reunites the director with her Lost in Translation star Bill Murray, opened the New York Film Festival. Reviews were mostly positive. If Supporting Actor weren’t so potentially crowded, I may have put Murray in my five (he sits in 8th). He could get in, but I also posited the theory that Apple TV might be wise to compete for him in lead actor because the Golden Globes would likely take notice in their Musical/Comedy race.
    • I wrote an Oscar Watch post for the documentary John Lewis: Good Trouble, which could absolutely be a factor in Documentary Feature. You can find my Watch write-ups for Trial, Rocks, and Trouble all linked below.
    • My Best Actress and Actor five remain the same from last week. Same with Supporting Actress.
    • In Supporting Actor, the aforementioned Rylance rises and that takes out his costar Mateen II for Trial.
    • In Original Screenplay, it’s Minari in and Judas and the Black Messiah out. The Adapted Screenplay five stays intact.

    Finally, you will see big changes next Thursday with my predictions! First off – all categories covering feature films will be added from Animated Feature to Documentary Feature and International Feature to the tech races.

    There will also be a dwindling of the numbers. My 25 Picture estimates will drop to 15 with all other races shrinking to ten predictions. It’s gettin’ serious, folks!

    Here are the links to this week’s individualized Oscar Watch posts:

    Oscar Watch: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Oscar Watch: On the Rocks

    Oscar Watch – John Lewis: Good Trouble

    Give me a follow on Twitter @tthizz as I’m posting Oscar related polls. For example, 90% of respondents agree with me that Trial will nab a Best Picture nod. 59% believe Bill Murray will not be nominated for Supporting Actor.

    And here we go with this Thursday’s estimates!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

    2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

    3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

    4. News of the World (PR: 4)

    5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

    6. The Father (PR: 9)

    7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

    8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

    9. Soul (PR: 12)

    Other Possibilities:

    10. Dune (PR: 4)

    11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 14)

    12. Minari (PR: 16)

    13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 11)

    14. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. The French Dispatch (PR: 15)

    16. Ammonite (PR: 13)

    17. Stillwater (PR: 17)

    18. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 19)

    19. Respect (PR: 20)

    20. The Midnight Sky (PR: 23)

    21. Annette (PR: 18)

    22. Next Goal Wins (PR: 21)

    23. Red, White and Water (PR: 22)

    24. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 25)

    25. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    West Side Story

    Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

    2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

    3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

    4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

    5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 7)

    7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

    8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4)

    10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

    11. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)

    13. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 14)

    14. Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Tom McCarthy, Stillwater (PR: 15)

    Dropped Out:

    Steven Spielberg, West Side Story 

    Francis Lee, Ammonite

    Best Actress 

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)

    2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

    3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

    4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)

    5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

    7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)

    8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

    9. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 11)

    10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 14)

    11. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

    12. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water (PR: 13)

    13. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 12)

    14. Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Marion Cotillard, Annette (PR: 15)

    Dropped Out:

    Rachel Zeller, West Side Story 

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

    2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)

    3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

    4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

    5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 7)

    7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8)

    8. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 10)

    9. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Courier (PR: 12)

    10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11)

    11. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 9)

    12. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 15)

    13. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)

    14. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 14)

    15. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

    2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)

    4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

    5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)

    7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 8)

    8. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 10)

    9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

    10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 11)

    11. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 14)

    12. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 12)

    13. Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 13)

    14. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: 15)

    Dropped Out:

    Ariana Debose, West Side Story

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

    2. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

    3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

    4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 14)

    5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6.  Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

    7. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

    8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 13)

    9. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 10)

    10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)

    12. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 11)

    13. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 12)

    14. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 9)

    15. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mank (PR: 1)

    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

    3. Soul (PR: 4)

    4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

    5. Minari (PR: 9)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

    7. The French Dispatch (PR: 6)

    8. Stillwater (PR: 8)

    9. Ammonite (PR: 7)

    10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)

    11. On the Rocks (PR: 13)

    12. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Red, White and Water (PR: 14)

    15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 11)

    Dropped Out:

    Promising Young Woman

    Palm Springs

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

    2. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

    3. The Father (PR: 2)

    4. News of the World (PR: 3)

    5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

    7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)

    8. Dune (PR: 6)

    9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)

    10. French Exit (PR: 12)

    11. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)

    13. The Humans (PR: 11)

    14. First Cow (PR: 14)

    15. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    West Side Story

    The Prom