Florian Zeller had an Oscar hit right out of the gate with his debut 2020 feature The Father. Nominated for six Academy Awards including Best Picture, it would win Zeller an Adapted Screenplay trophy (adapting his own play) as well as Anthony Hopkins taking home Best Actor. It received a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. The filmmaker’s 2023 follow-up The Son with Hugh Jackman? 28%.
That’s the definition of a sophomore slump and lots of curiosity greets third pic Bunker. It has screened at the Venice Film Festival prior to its anticipated release later this year. The psychological drama stars real life spouses Penélope Cruz and Javier Bardem with support from Stephen Graham, Paul Dano, and Patrick Schwarzenegger. The RT score sits at a middling 55% and 46 Metacritic. The MC number is only one point above The Son.
In other words, Bunker‘s Oscar chances equal Zeller’s predecessor at non-existent. For Cruz, she will likely be walking the red carpet next year anyway with a supporting nod for either The Invite or The Black Ball (or both based on a fresh rule change). Her husband has more of an outside shot in lead Actor for The Beloved. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As August closes out and September dawns, film festival season is nearly upon us. Venice begins on Wednesday with Telluride playing out over Labor Day weekend. Between those two events, we are expected to get screenings and critical reaction for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Danny Boyle’s Ink, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime, Florian Zeller’s Bunker, Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care, Simon Stone’s Elsinore, Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter, and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard to name a few.
September 10th brings Toronto with their own premieres including Sian Heder’s Being Heumann, Chris Rock’s Misty Green, Susanna White’s Prima Facie, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and Bassam Tariq’s Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.
Needless to say you can expect a bunch of Oscar Prediction posts over the next three weeks. And if history is any guide, my next update in a couple weekends should look quite different.
Away from festival buzz, there was a significant piece of news since my last update two weeks ago. It was announced that Diane Warren is behind the title track to the upcoming By Any Means starring Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg. The songwriter has famously racked up 17 Best Original Song nominations without a win. She currently is up to nine noms in a row since 2017. It would be foolish to not include her in my five predicted tracks.
There’s not a ton of movement in the major races though it is a solid update for The Invite. Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the #1 spot in Adapted Screenplay over The Black Ball with the filmmaker entering the directorial quintet for the first time. She knocks out Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary).
You can read all the movement below and expect plenty of posts in the coming days and weeks as the festivals commence!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Debut (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Digger (PR: 11) (-1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elsinore (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Michael (PR: 15) (E)
16. Primetime (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Werwulf (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Josephine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fatherland
Artificial
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, Al of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (E)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (E)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (E)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Artificial
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 3) (+2)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sense and Sensibility
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mimesis (PR: 9) (E)
10. Silent Friend (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hoppers (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 2) (E)
3. NAZA (PR: Not Ranked)
4. 14th (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One in a Million (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuisance Bear (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rehearsals for Revolution (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
When a Witness Recants
Musk
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicker (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rose (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Michael (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wildwood (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: Not Ranked)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“La Playa” from The Black Ball
TBD from Hexed
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
12 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Elsinore, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Disclosure Day, Michael, Rose. Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, By All Means, Clayface, Digger, Fatherland, Ink, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker. Wildwood
We have reached 2020 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
2020 is a tricky year to consider. As we all know, it was a year dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us were working from home and theaters were essentially shuttered for the majority of the year.
Beyond the challenging, tragic, and unprecedented news events of 2020, it was just a strange year for motion pictures. Eight pictures contended for the big prize. I have the leading nominee (with 10) missing the BP cut. The next most nominated film had 6 mentions… and there’s 6 of them. The other BP contender had 5.
My point? Whittling these 8 down to 5 is not easy. Considering it took BP, Director (Chloe Zhao, the second female ever to win), and Actress (Frances McDormand), we can safely reserve a spot for Nomadland. As for the rest? Let’s get into it!
The Father
Florian Zeller’s devastasting drama about Alzheimer’s missed a nod in Director, but Anthony Hopkins landed his second Actor statue over the late Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, who was the frontrunner. Zeller did win Adapted Screenplay and this was also up for Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Film Editing, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Its two wins not only give me confidence of its inclusion in a quintet, but it could be argued this was runner-up to Nomadland.
Judas and the Black Messiah
Daniel Kaluuya won Supporting Actor for his performance as Fred Hampton in Shaka King’s historical drama. Costar Lakeith Stanfield was up in the same race andit was nominated for Original Screenplay and Cinematography. A second statue was given to H.E.R. for her original song “Fight for You”.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No but I certainly struggled with this one. The lack of directing and editing noms have it on the outside looking in.
Mank
This is where it gets complicated. David Fincher’s jaded Netflix aired look at Old Hollywood easily led the program with 10 mentions and it won Cinematography and Production Design. Fincher was also in contention for his behind the camera work. Other nods went to Gary Oldman for Actor, Amanda Seyfried in Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Surprisingly enough… I’m saying no. Despite the haul, it is the only one of the 8 nominees not up for screenplay. Furthermore the Film Editing omission feels significant. It certainly isn’t normal to project the leader not making the final five. However, rules are meant to be broken.
Minari
Lee Isaac Chung also garnered a directing spot in that quintet while Youn yuh-Jung was the Supporting Actress recipient in this family drama. Other nods: Actor (Steven Yeun), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I went back and forth. This seemed to gather strength as the season wore on and not just with yuh-Jung. I think it squeaks in.
Promising Young Woman
Emerald Fennell was up for director and won Adapted Screenplay for this revenge dramedy. Carey Mulligan made the Actress cut (and may have been second to McDormand) and it was in for Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The victory in Adapted Screenplay over four other BP hopefuls helps solidify that decision.
Sound of Metal
The impressive haul for the indie drama is Riz Ahmed in Actor, Paul Raci in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and wins in Film Editing and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I again went back and forth. While director Darius Marder was left out, it’s the Editing and Sound combo that give it an edge over the three that got left out.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7‘s six nods came (in addition to BP) in Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Song. The Aaron Sorkin political drama is the only BP vier not to take home a single trophy.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No though I struggled again. This Netflix pic undoubtedly didn’t match awards expectations after it was once seen as the on paper favorite. The 0 for 6 performance make it easier to elevate some of the others.
And there you have it. That means my 2020 vision of the Final Five is:
The Father
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
2021 will be be up soon! If you missed my entries covering 2009-19, you can find them here:
As the Toronto Film Festival draws to a close, we have some significant updates since I did my last predictions 11 days ago!
And you may notice that, for the first time, I’m including all categories covering feature films. It’s the initial peek at what pics I believe will lead the nominations. The answer is Babylon (11) followed closely by The Fabelmans (10) followed closely by Everything Everywhere All at Once (9).
I’ve also made the shift of whittling 25 BP picks down to 15 possibilities and the other big races from 15 to 10.
I will point out that some categories (particularly Original Song) are in their infancy as far as knowing the contenders.
One year ago, my projections in mid-September yielded eight of the eventual 10 BP nominees and 3 of the 5 Directing hopefuls. For Best Actress – it was 4 of 5 and 3 of 5 for Actor. For Supporting Actress – 2/5, but Supporting Actor (somehow) was 0 for 5.
Let’s talk changes:
In Best Picture, I’m putting Empire of Light back in and removing The Son. You’ll send a trend there as The Son drew divided reactions in Venice and Toronto. It could still contend in more races than just Hugh Jackman in Actor, but for now, I’ve got it nabbing that sole nod.
Todd Field (Tar) is in the directing quintet over Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness.
Surprisingly enough, Actress and Actor remain the same.
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) crashes the Supporting Actress party with Vanessa Kirby (The Son) dropping.
I’ve put Micheal Ward back in Supporting Actor (I elevated him to lead recently). He’s in the final five along with a bit of an upset selection in Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin. Zen McGrath (The Son) and Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) fall out.
Original Screenplay remains the same but Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is in Adapted Screenplay over (you guessed it) The Son.
You can peruse all the movement below and my inaugural take on the other derbies!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tar (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 20) (+6)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Avatar: The Way of Water
White Noise
Bones and All
Armageddon Time
Till
Broker
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Living
Bardo
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Florian Zeller, The Son
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Taylor Russell, Bones and All
Tang Wei, Decision to Leave
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Song King-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Supporting)
Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier
Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+5)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, The Son
Jean Smart, Babylon
Samantha Morton, She Said
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Zen McGrath, The Son
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Anthony Hopkins, The Son
Mark Strong, Tar
Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Babylon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bros (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Aftersun
Cha Cha Real Smooth
Bardo
The Menu
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Son (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Living (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Lost King
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
The Wonder
Elvis
The Good Nurse
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Strange World
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5. The Sea Beast
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild
7. The Bad Guys
8. Lightyear
9. My Father’s Dragon
10. Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Close
4. Saint Omer
5. Holy Spider
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo
7. RMN
8. RRR
9. Plan 75
10. Argentina, 1985
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Descendant
3. Navalny
4. Fire of Love
5. Last Flight Home
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory
7. Moonage Daydream
8. Riotsville, U.S.A.
9. Good Night Oppy
10. All That Breathes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Empire of Light
3. The Fabelmans
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Top Gun: Maverick
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. The Banshees of Inisherin
9. The Whale
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Elvis
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Woman King
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing
9. The Northman
10. Corsage
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Babylon
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Fabelmans
5. Women Talking
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis
7. Tar
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale
2. Babylon
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Blonde
8. The Woman King
9. The Fabelmans
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Empire of Light
4. Women Talking
5. Tar
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Top Gun: Maverick
8. Avatar: The Way of Water
9. The Batman
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
3. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. “On My Way” from Marry Me
7. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
8. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise
9. “Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
10. “Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Elvis
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Empire of Light
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once
8. Bardo
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
10. The Batman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Babylon
4. Elvis
5. The Batman
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. Nope
10. The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. RRR
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
10. Nope
And that equates to this very first rundown of how many nominations I am projecting for each picture:
11 Nominations
Babylon
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans’
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tar
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Holy Spider, Last Flight Home, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Navalny, Saint Omer, The Sea Beast, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
Two awards seasons ago, Florian Zeller’s The Father premiered at Sundance all the way back at a time known as January 2020. For over a year (and with the Oscars delayed due to COVID), the performance of Anthony Hopkins stayed in the minds of voters and he scored an upset Best Actor victory over the late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). The pic nabbed five other nominations including a win for its Adapted Screenplay.
Zeller’s follow-up is The Son and prognosticators including me anointed Hugh Jackman as the Best Actor frontrunner sight unseen. That dynamic has changed as it’s screened at Venice before moving to Toronto (the actual release is November 11th). The supporting cast includes Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, Zen McGrath, and Hopkins.
Unlike The Father where reviews were basically all laudatory, the Italian buzz for The Son is wildly mixed. Some are calling it an emotional gut punch and highly effective. Others are claiming it’s a big failure. If there seems to be agreement on one item, it’s the potency of Jackman. He still seems likely to make the Actor cut for his second nod after 2012’s Les Miserables. Yet I’m feeling more confident that I made the right call by placing Brendan Fraser (The Whale) in 1st place on Monday’s update and sliding Jackman to second.
Beyond its star, any other nominations for The Son appears questionable at press time. Perhaps Toronto reaction will help flesh it out – for better or worse. From the initial reaction, I’d say Kirby and McGrath could be possible in the supporting fields. Hopkins is said to have a smaller role and Dern’s character reportedly has less to work with than Kirby. It could find its way into Adapted Screenplay, but a win seems like a reach already.
Bottom line: Jackman should be safe though nothing else is with this one. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As I always say at the beginning of September on this blog – what a difference a few days makes as Venice is at its midpoint and Telluride occurred over the holiday weekend. The Toronto Film Festival begins Thursday. For the first time, I am thrilled to announce that I will be in attendance and have screenings scheduled for several potential heavy hitters! They include The Fabelmans, The Son, The Whale, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness, Empire of Light, The Menu, The Wonder, Bros, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and The Good Nurse.
The fall festivals always cause the fortunes of certain pictures to rise and fall. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo received mixed reviews out of Lido and it has dropped out of my predictions in Picture, Director, Actor (Daniel Gimenez Cacho), and Supporting Actress (Griselda Sicillani). On the other hand, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking looks to have solidified its position as a BP hopeful while Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley appear to be the two likeliest nominees from its ensemble. Cate Blanchett (Tar) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) have positioned themselves as surefire nominees and potential winners in the lead acting derbies. Tar itself improved its standing in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Empire of Light is no slam dunk for BP, but it’s in the mix and Olivia Colman seems solid in Actress. The Banshees of Inisherin may be Fox Searchlight’s better hope over Empire. It drew a rapturous Venice reaction today and has vaulted into Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay on my chart. Bones and All, despite some gushing reviews, could face challenges to fit into the BP race. Don’t Worry Darling, due to some middling write-ups, is probably toast.
Of course, we know that festivals are not the end all and be all for final verdicts. For example, Armageddon Time from James Gray seemed DOA after a so-so Cannes bow in the summer. Yet when it played Telluride over the weekend, the buzz was stronger. It’s awards heart is beating again – even if faintly.
This will probably be my last update for two weeks as I’ll be a Canadian for a few days. You can bet you’ll see lots of other individual Oscar prediction posts as well as reviews of the aforementioned pictures. When I update in a couple of weeks, I’m anticipating branching out to all races covering feature films. Until then, you can peruse all the movement (and there is definitely a lot of it) below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Whale (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tar (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+9)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (E)
13. She Said (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. White Noise (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Bones and All (PR: 22) (+5)
18. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Till (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Broker (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Living (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Bardo (PR: 4) (-20)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Menu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Taylor Russell, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, Shirley (moved to 2023)
Frances McDormand, Women Talking (role not large enough)
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (E)
8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 14) (+10)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Griselda Sicillani, Bardo
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Strong, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 14) (E)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
How important is the Venice Film Festival when it comes to premiering Oscar hopefuls? In the past decade, nearly half of the Best Picture winners got their rollout in Italy. That would be Birdman, Spotlight, The Shape of Water, and Nomadland. It’s tough to find a recent Venice fest where there’s not at least 2 eventual nominees for the Academy’s biggest race.
This year’s competition kicks off tomorrow and you can anticipate plenty of individualized Oscar prediction posts coming your way. Telluride follows this weekend (with the lineup announcement on Thursday) and Toronto starts next Thursday (I’ll be there!).
Let’s take a look at ten Venice entries looking to create their Oscar buzz over the next few days…
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Laura Poitras, who won an Academy Award for her 2014 Edward Snowden documentary Citizenfour, turns her eye to activist Nan Goldin and her fight against the opioid epidemic. This could certainly be a player in the Doc competition.
The Banshees of Inisherin
The last time filmmaker Martin McDonagh, Colin Farrell, and Brendan Gleeson collaborated, the result was the acclaimed 2008 black comedy In Bruges. They’re playing in the same genre here with McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which earned acting Oscars for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell.
Bardo
3 out of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s last four films were nominated for Best Picture. Birdman took gold with Babel and The Revenant contending. Expectations are that his latest drama (available on Netflix in December) could be the streamer’s most serious contender and it could immediately become a frontrunner for International Feature Film.
Blonde
Andrew Dominik’s Marilyn Monroe biopic starring Ana de Armas (another Netflix offering) comes with an NC-17 rating and lots of prognosticators wondering if it’s too risqué to get awards attention. We’ll know soon.
Bones & All
Luca Guadagnino had a pic in the BP derby five years ago with Call Me by Your Name and then followed with the confounding Suspiria remake. This horror romance with cannibalistic themes stars Timothee Chalamet and Taylor Russell. I have’t really had this as much of a threat for the Oscar race so let’s see if that narrative shifts.
Don’t Worry Darling
Olivia Wilde’s follow-up to Booksmart is a tale of marital and suburban strife headlined by Florence Pugh and Harry Styles. The thriller has been generating headlines for some wrong reasons lately, but great reviews could turn that buzz around.
The Son
Florian Zeller took home a Screenplay Oscar for 2020’s The Father while Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor. The Father is next and Hugh Jackman is seeking his first statue. The supporting cast includes Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, Zen McGrath, and Hopkins. Any and all could be in the mix for acting honors.
Tar
Cate Blanchett could be lined up for a third Oscar win in Todd Field’s latest in which the acclaimed actress plays a composer. It’s the director’s first feature in over 15 years after both In the Bedroom and Little Children received Academy nods.
The Whale
Darren Aronofsky directed Natalie Portman to the podium in 2010’s Black Swan. There’s chatter he could do the same and assist in mounting a significant career comeback for Brendan Fraser (something he did for Mickey Rourke with 2008’s The Wrestler). The Mummy star plays a 600 pound man reconnecting with his daughter (Sadie Sink).
White Noise
Noah Baumbach’s last Netflix film was the BP contending Marriage Story from 2019. His Marriage star Adam Driver is back in this adaptation of a 1980s sci-fi dark comedy. It will open Venice tomorrow and it will be my first Oscar Predictions post. Stay tuned!
My final Oscar predictions for the month of August could rightfully be called the calm before the storm. That’s because Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about to blow in screenings for several legitimate contenders. And there’s no doubt it will change the forecasts below.
My plan is to do the next update on Labor Day (ten days from now). By that point, there should be reviews and awards buzz out for Venice pics like White Noise, Tar, Bardo, Bones and All, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Don’t Worry Darling, among others. There’s also anything that plays Telluride over the holiday weekend (expect that to potentially include The Son and Women Talking). My next update should be about a week later.
Those next updates will incorporate the lengthy list of Toronto screenings and late Venice leftovers. That list includes Blonde, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, Empire of Light, The Good Nurse, The Menu, The Lost King, The Woman King, Bros, Chevalier, and more. In other words… buckle up because the Oscar picture is going to be in much sharper focus over the next three weeks!
My Best Picture ten remains the same, but I’ve made a change in Director with Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) in over Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
In Best Actress, there’s a new #1 as I’ve vaulted Cate Blanchett (Tar) to the top spot over Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Yeoh spent only a week in first after she replaced Babylon‘s Margot Robbie, who’s now in third position. We will know in a matter of days whether Blanchett’s promotion is warranted courtesy of Venice.
I’ve switched Micheal Ward’s performance in Empire of Light from supporting to lead. Toronto’s fest should shed light on whether that’s the right call. Due to this, Bill Nighy (Living) falls out of my actor quintet. In Supporting Actor, Babylon‘s Brad Pitt is back in the mix since I’ve taken Ward out. In Original Screenplay, I’m switching in Bardo with The Banshees of Inisherin out.
You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for lots of individualized prediction posts for the pictures playing in Italy, Colorado, and Canada in the coming weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tar (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. She Said (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (E)
17. Broker (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Till (PR: 18) (-2)
21. The Menu (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Bones and All (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Living (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (E)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (+2)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (E)
15. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda (moved to 2023)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye
Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All
Harry Styles, My Policeman
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Toby Jones, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Best Actor)
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bros (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (E)
15. Chevalier (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. She Said (PR: 5) (+1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bones and All (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+1)
With the Venice Film Festival less than two weeks away and Toronto and Telluride on its heels, the Oscar races are poised to become clearer quite soon. We are mostly in speculation mode at this juncture, but there’s change afoot in the Actor and Supporting Actor with this latest update.
I have vaulted Bill Nighy (Living) into the top 5 for Best Actor and that removes Adam Driver in White Noise. I’ve struggled with Brad Pitt’s placement in Supporting Actor for Babylon. At this point, it’s not certain whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting. Therefore I have Pitt on the outside looking in for Supporting Actor and that allows The Son‘s Zen McGrath to enter the projected quintet.
While no changes were made in the Picture, Director, the Actress derbies, or screenplay – there’s a new #1 for Best Actress. Since I started my estimates back in April, I’ve had Margot Robbie (Babylon) perched atop the charts. I’m now switching that to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Finally, I’ve dropped David O. Russell’s Amsterdam from contention in all races. The studio’s decision to move it up a month from November to October is something I look at as a bad sign. That’s in addition to it getting no festival screenings, a trailer that didn’t impress, and lingering personal issues and bad press for Mr. Russell.
A final note: at this pre-festival juncture in mid-August of 2021, my predictions yielded seven of the eventual 10 BP contenders.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll likely have one more update prior to August 30th before the festival season is upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (E)
18. Till (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bones and All (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Broker (PR: 20) (E)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Menu (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Woman King (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (E)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Maris Schrader, She Said (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (E)
11. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harry Styles, My Policeman (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Don Cheadle, White Noise
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (E)
13. Bros (PR: 13) (E)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Noise (PR: 4) (E)
5. She Said (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bones and All (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Living (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-2)
For my first Oscar analysis in the 8 major categories for the month of August, the ten BP contenders remain the same. However, Everything Everywhere All at Once moves to #2 with Babylon slipping a spot to third. I truly do believe there’s a path for Once to take the top prize next year depending on how the next five months of releases play out.
At the end of July, I vaulted Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans to #1 in BP. Today I’m putting the filmmaker in first with Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle now in second.
While my lead actress and actor picks remain unaltered, there is movement in both supporting derbies. In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Griselda Sicillani (Bardo) are in my projected quintet with Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) falling out. In Supporting Actor, I’m switching Empire of Light costars with Michael Ward making the cut over Colin Firth.
Finally, I’ve taken Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives out of contention in all categories where I previously had it listed as a possibility. If Amazon Prime mounts a campaign later this year, it could find itself back in the mix. I wouldn’t count on it despite its solid reviews.
Expect another update in the next week or two! You can peruse all the movement below:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (E)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Bones and All (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Till (PR: 19) (E)
20. Broker (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Woman King (PR: 24) (E)
25. Amsterdam (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Thirteen Lives
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 