Way back on January 29th of this year, I wrote my Oscar Watch post for Jordan Peele’s Get Out, which had just premiered at the Sundance Film Festival nearly a month before its opening.
At the time, I wrote: “The chances of this getting into the Best Picture convo is unlikely. However, depending on level of competition, it could be in the mix for Peele’s Original Screenplay if voters remember it nearly a year after its February 24th domestic debut.”
Of course, since then, Get Out became a box office phenomenon, taking in $175 million domestically. Furthermore, it became a water cooler picture with its focus on racial themes that have often dominated the news.
From late January until this Monday, I have yet to put Get Out in my predicted nine films to be named for Best Picture at the Oscars. However, recent precursor action has done nothing except up its chances.
The National Board of Review named it among their 10 best movies of 2017. Mr. Peele was also honored with Best Directorial Debut. The Critics Choice Awards named their nominees this week and Get Out was among six Picture nominees and Peele made the cut for seven nominated directors. The Washington D.C. Film Critics Association nominated it for Picture, Director, and Actor (Daniel Kaluuya).
So where does Get Out stand now 10 months following my original post? Well, the chances of it getting into the Best Picture convo isn’t unlikely… it’s here. There’s a very good chance that I’ll be predicting its inclusion into Best Picture when I update my Oscar predictions this Monday. Peele wasn’t even in my top 10 listed possibilities for his direction three days ago and he most certainly will be now. Kaluuya has yet to be named in my top ten possibles for Actor. That should change. That said, I still see a nomination for him as unlikely.
Stay tuned on Monday and my Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The three major players involved have a combined 32 Oscar nominations and 7 wins. It’s a historical drama with relevance to current events. And it’s got a plum December release date for Academy voters.
Since the announcement of the project, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has rightly been pegged as an Oscar hopeful. Today its review embargo lifted so let’s discuss its chances, shall we? The pic tells the story of journalists exposing government secrets during the Vietnam War and casts Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Kate Graham and Tom Hanks as the paper’s editor Ben Bradlee.
Just last week, The Post won the National Board of Review’s Best Picture prize, along with Streep and Hanks in the lead acting categories. That’s a good sign of things to come for its Oscar chances. That said, critical reaction today is not completely over the moon. While some reviews have been quite strong, its Rotten Tomatoes score currently stands at 73% – decent, but far from the standings of other likely competitors.
Yet its inclusion in Best Picture looks almost assured. Spielberg also could well nab his 8th nomination as Best Director (he’s won twice). Streep looks safe to get her 21st (!) nod in Actress (she’s been victorious thrice). Hanks has a nice shot to get his 6th recognition (having won twice), though it’s a bit less safe. At press time, Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) appear to be locks in Actor. Hanks, Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), and Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) appear to be vying for the other three slots and someone has to be left out (we also wait for reaction to Hugh Jackman’s work in The Greatest Showman).
The Post could also contend in Original Screenplay, but that’s a packed category as well and its inclusion isn’t guaranteed. Other races where it could play: Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, and Original Score.
Bottom line: A Best Picture and Streep nomination are looking good, while some of the others are a bit more questionable. However, due its subject matter, I’m thinking The Post walks away with at least a handful of nominations.
The Los Angeles Film Critics Association put their stamp on awards season today and it marked a solid afternoon for Luca Guadagnino’s CallMebyYourName and Guillermo del Toro’s TheShapeofWater. The latter hasn’t received much precursor love thus far. The former picked up its first Best Picture prize.
LAFC also honors runner-ups and that went to TheFloridaProject, another pic that seems to be on the upswing at the moment. There was a tie for Best Director between Guadagnino and del Toro. The CallMe love continued with Timothee Chalamet taking Best Actor with James Franco (TheDisasterArtist) second. The Water appreciation extended to Sally Hawkins for Actress with Frances McDormand (ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri) following.
Supporting Actor went to Willem Dafoe in Project, making him 3 for 3 including the NBR and New York Critics. Sam Rockwell in Billboards was on his heels. Laurie Metcalf in LadyBird was victorious for Supporting Actress with Mary J. Blige in Mudbound in the two spot.
Bottom line: the Academy’s Best Picture race is indeed looking wide open right now and CallMe and Shape had nice west coast showings today to keep their names relevant.
This afternoon, the National Board of Review bestowed its 2017 honors and it marks the first significant critics group to do so. The NBR has a history and habit of making some outside the box choices in years past for various categories. That didn’t necessarily hold true today, for the most part.
By far and wide, the big winner of the day was Steven Spielberg’s The Post, which just recently screened and has yet to have its review embargo lifted. The Watergate era drama won Best Film along with Actor (Tom Hanks) and Actress (Meryl Streep). Buzz for the pic has already vaulted it into contention and today basically solidifies its inclusion into Best Picture at the Oscars. In this decade, only 2014’s AMostViolentYear was victorious and didn’t land an Academy nod.
Streep looks on her way to her 21st nomination and Hanks is looking better for his sixth. In the Suporting races, Willem Dafoe for TheFloridaProject and Laurie Metcalf in LadyBird heard their names called. Both look safe for Oscar attention.
Additionally, the NBR names their ten other favorite features of the year. That list include likely Oscar nominees CallMebyYourName, Dunkirk, LadyBird, and PhantomThread (which took Original Screenplay). There were sleeper-ish picks such as TheDisasterArtist (which won Adapted Screenplay), TheFloridaProject, and GetOut. And then there were the aforementioned outside the box choices – BabyDriver, Downsizing, and Logan. Any of that trio being included in the big race would be a surprise.
In my view, there are three glaring omissions for pictures that are more likely to have Oscar shine its light on them: TheShapeofWater, DarkestHour, and ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri. To a lesser degree of surprise, we didn’t see Mudbound, I, Tonya, LastFlagFlying, Detroit, BladeRunner2049, BattleoftheSexes, or TheBigSick.
In other categories, Oscar front runner Coco took Animated Feature, Jane won Documentary, and Israel’s Foxtrot was honored in the Foreign Language race.
Bottom line: ThePost ramped up its awards season viability today in a massive way.
Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!
It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.
Let us count them…
1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.
2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.
3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.
There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:
Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.
Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.
Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.
Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.
Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.
4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.
Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
5. Fences (PR: 2)
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 8)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
11. Jackie (PR: 9)
12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)
13. Sully (PR: 15)
14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)
17. Live by Night (PR: 14)
18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
20. The Founder (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)
9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)
8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Moonlight (PR: 1)
3. La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. The Lobster (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
8. Sully (PR: 10)
9. Elle (PR: 9)
10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Whew! And there you have it…
Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…
A summertime thrill ride that has served as a resurgence for a thirty year old action franchise got a big Oscar boost today when Mad Max: Fury Road won the National Board of Review (NBR) award for Best Picture. This was an upset. While George Miller’s return to kinetic and wild adventure set pieces earned universal critical acclaim, it’s not really been looked at as a given for a Picture nod at the Academy Awards. The NBR attention does nothing but help.
Over this century, the NBR’s Picture winner has been nominated for the big race at the Oscars 14 out of 16 times (the exceptions were 2000’s Quills and last year’s A Most Violent Year). On the other hand, only two of the past 16 NBR honorees have won the Academy’s honor (2007’s No Country for Old Men and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire).
I would still say that Fury Road is no shoo in for a nomination, but its chances no doubt increased with the announcement this afternoon. I also believe a scenario (and maybe a stronger one) exists where Miller gets a directing nomination with the film being left off of the Best Picture group come announcement time.
The NBR also names an additional nine favorite movies of the year. They were: Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, The Martian, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton. Of these films, Sicario and Compton are seen as least likely to receive Oscar attention. Both are still possible and Creed‘s stock keeps rising.
High profile Oscar contenders left off? The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Joy, Anomalisa, Brooklyn, and Carol. However, the NBR list and the Academy list never match and expect some of these titles to be included in the big race.
Besides Max, the other pic to get a huge NBR boost is The Martian, where Ridley Scott won Best Director and Matt Damon won Best Actor. Again, neither are shoo ins for Oscar nods but their inclusion is seeming more and more probable.
As for the other acting categories, Brie Larson’s work in Room marked her first win in what could be several and her Oscar nod seems assured. Sylvester Stallone was victorious in Supporting Actor for Creed and it would now be a surprise if Oscar doesn’t call his name among the five nominees. The same is likely for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, who won Supporting Actress.
This day really marked the official beginning of the awards season and there’ll be much more to chew on (other critics group, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) before the Academy reveals their choices. And this blog will be following and keeping you up to date all the way. Stay tuned!
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