Tag: Phil Lord

99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Fjord

6. No One Cares

7. All of a Sudden

8. Fatherland

9. The Social Reckoning

10. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

12. A Place in Hell

13. A Long Winter

14. The Entertainment System is Down

15. Being Heumann

16. Cry to Heaven

17. Josephine

18. Werwulf

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

20. Michael

21. Paper Tiger

22. Saturn Return

23. Sense and Sensibility

24. Jack of Spades

25. Behemoth!

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

2. John Goodman, Digger

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system where the lineup for Cannes was revealed today.

This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Ink

Beth de Araújo, Josephine

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger

Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

Project Hail Mary Box Office Prediction

Project Hail Mary looks to throw down impressive grosses for Amazon MGM when it debuts March 20th. Drew Goddard adapts Andy Weir’s 2021 novel with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directing. The sci-fi adventures stars Ryan Gosling with a supporting cast including Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub.

Critics have complimented the production on its Spielberg vibes with Rotten Tomatoes at 95% and 80 on Metacritic. With a reported budget north of $200 million, the studio is hoping for a high launch. Encouraging early word-of-mouth should assist.

One scenario is that it plays similar to 2015’s The Martian which is also based on a Weir book. That space tale with Matt Damon opened to $54 million. A best case might be closer to $80 million, but I’ll hedge and say high 60s is likelier.

Project Hail Mary opening weekend prediction: $69 million

For my Ready or Not 2: Here I Come prediction, click here:

Ready or Not 2: Here I Come Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Project Hail Mary

Project Hail Mary touches down in theaters March 20th looking to score impressive box office numbers. The sci-fi adventure comes from filmmakers Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, best known for their involvement in the Lego, 21/22 Jump Street, and Spider-Verse franchises. Ryan Gosling headlines with Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub providing support.

Early reviews are encouraging with many critics calling this a big-hearted popcorn feast reminiscent of Spielberg. Rotten Tomatoes is fresh at 96% with Metacritic at 80. If Mary pops with audiences and becomes a financial hit, that could help with awards attention. Down the line nods including Daniel Pemberton’s score, Editing, Production Design, and especially Sound and Visual Effects are all possibilities.

How it fares in the major races is more of an open question. Under a best case scenario, Director, Adapted Screenplay (by Drew Goddard from the Andy Weir novel) could happen. This logic also applies to Best Picture like other space tales Gravity and The Martian (also based on a Weir story). It could also miss the big dance like other genre titles Interstellar and Gosling’s First Man. The leading man could make a play for a fourth acting mention.

The bottom line is that this Project could be one that Oscar voters notice. To what level remains to be seen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

As we wait to hear the Best Animated Feature at the Academy Awards this Sunday evening (hint: it’s Soul), we have a fresh possibility for the competition next year. Formerly titled Connected, Netflix premieres The Mitchells vs. the Machines on April 30. The computer animated sci-fi comedy comes from director Michael Rianda and is produced by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (the team behind 2019’s Oscar recipient Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and The Lego Movie franchise). Actors doing voice work include Abbi Jacobson, Danny McBride, Maya Rudolph, Eric Andre, Fred Armisen, Beck Bennett, Conan O’Brien, and Olivia Colman.

The Sony Pictures release was originally slated for theatrical release before the COVID-19 pandemic switched it to streaming. Reviews out today are nearly across the board positive with a current 96% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is early in the year and there’s eight more months of animated hopefuls to come. Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon is already out and could easily make the final cut. Pixar’s Luca (out this summer) is certainly one to keep an eye on. However, Mitchells has already established itself as a contender in the 2021 mix.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Movie Review

In the 21st century cinematic universe, the famed web slinger has been reinvented on a number of occasions – from Tobey Maguire to Andrew Garfield to Tom Holland. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse is the first one that feels truly inventive. Anyone thinking this animated experience would be a sub par spin-off or money grab will find themselves sorely mistaken. This iteration of the iconic hero has a lot of heart, plenty of action, and a warped sense of humor that elicits genuine laughs. Directors Bob Perischetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman (who co-wrote the screenplay along with Phil Lord) have drawn up what is probably the most satisfying Spidey pic on its own terms.

The picture posits the theory that our title character does his Spidey thing in multiple dimensions and in different forms than just Peter Parker. These characters are familiar to fans of the Marvel Comics and even includes Spider-Ham, representing the hero in pig form. He’s here and he’s fabulous. Our primary Spidey here is Miles (voiced by Shameik Moore), a Brooklyn teen with a police officer father and a potentially shady uncle that he admires. Miles attends a prep school and feels lost in his adolescence just like Peter Parker did. He’s a fan of Spider-Man, who is currently fighting Big Apple crime in the manner we’re accustomed to. That’s until bad guy Kingpin (Liev Schrieber) knocks him off, but not before Miles get a radioactive bite that gives him the well-known powers.

What follows is a visually splendid adventure where it’s clear that the makers really adore the character. At the same time, they take him in unforeseen directions that perhaps only the animated format could allow. Miles’s Spidey teams with an aging and out of shape Peter Parker (Jake Johnson) from a different “verse”, along with Spider-Woman (Hailee Steinfeld) and the aforementioned Ham version. There’s others, but part of the fun is watching them appear without me spoiling it.

Plenty of superhero movies take themselves quite seriously and many have succeeded with that tone. Guardians of the Galaxy and Deadpool introduced a different dynamic that is evident here. Yet Spider–Verse is not derivative. It manages to take one of the most repeated story arcs in the genre and cleverly turn it on its head. I enjoyed it immensely. The possibilities are many for this particular universe to continue and I’m up for it.

***1/2 (out of four)

The Lego Movie Collapse

This was a weekend where The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part was expected to easily nab the #1 spot at the box office. That mission was accomplished, but it did so with much less money than any prognosticator figured. The sequel to the 2014 original took in $34 million and that was about $20 million less than expected. I had a feeling it would under perform and forecasted a $48 million debut. However, I never figured a mid 30s premiere.

For some context, the first Lego experience five years ago made $69 million out of the gate and eventually earned $257 million domestically. In 2017, first franchise spin-off The Lego Batman Movie debuted to $53 million ($175 million total). The first sign of trouble came a few months later when The Lego Ninjago Movie came in far under estimates with $20 million in its opening weekend and a lowly $59 million stateside. Yet some attributed the poor Ninjago performance to its limited niche audience.

The Second Part marked a hopeful return to form for Warner Bros considering it was a direct sequel to a picture that made over $250 million. There is no doubt that the number produced this weekend could block future plans for the series. Its best hope ahead could be the President’s Day weekend as the studio hopes it will have a small decline. Any way you cut it, though, part two will seriously come in under its predecessor. We now have two Lego Movie collapses in a row and it will be interesting to see how Warner handles it.

Oscar Watch – The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

The Lego franchise has made nearly half a billion dollars at the domestic box office for Warner Bros since 2014 and The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part will add to those coffers next weekend. It’s money hauls, however, have not translated to success with Oscar voters.

The Lego Movie was critically acclaimed and seemed assured an Academy nod in Animated Feature four years ago. It was one of the most surprising snubs when it didn’t make the cut. There were two Lego pics in 2017 (The Lego Batman Movie, The Lego Ninjago Movie). Neither of them managed to make the race that year.

While reviews for The Second Part are strong, several critics have said it doesn’t quite match the first part. Competition from animated sequels alone in 2019 (How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Frozen 2, Toy Story 4) is serious. Therefore it appears highly unlikely that this will be the year where Lego builds any standing with the awards crowd.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part Box Office Prediction

The Warner Animation Group hopes to build back up its near half billion dollar domestic franchise next weekend with the release of The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. This direct sequel arrives five years after its hit predecessor, though there’s been two spin-offs in the meantime. Mike Mitchell, who made Shrek Forever After and Trolls, takes over directing duties from Christopher Miller and Phil Lord (they wrote the screenplay). Returning voices include Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett (he’s Batman), Charlie Day, Nick Offerman, Alison Brie, and Will Ferrell. Familiar faces joining the voiceover party are aplenty. They include Tiffany Haddish, Maya Rudolph, Channing Tatum, Jonah Hill, Brooklyn Prince, and thespians from the DC Cinematic Universe (Gal Gadot, Margot Robbie, Jason Momoa).

In February of 2014, The Lego Movie earned $69 million out of the gate with an eventual stateside take of $257 million. Our first spin-off, 2017’s The Lego Batman Movie, achieved $53 million for its start and $175 million total. A few months later, The Lego Ninjago Movie was a legitimate disappointment. It premiered with only $20 million and didn’t leg out well ($59 million).

As they were with the first part, reviews are positive as this stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Several critics, however, have noted it doesn’t quite match up to the original. While this should easily debut at #1, I’ll project that it falls short of the 2014 earnings. Topping $50 million is certainly possible, but I’ll go just shy of that number.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million

For my What Men Want prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/what-men-want-box-office-prediction/

For my Cold Pursuit prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/cold-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

For my The Prodigy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/31/the-prodigy-box-office-prediction/

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction

An iconic superhero swings into theaters in yet another iteration next Friday when Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse debuts. This time around, the friendly neighborhood character is animated in a world where multiple individuals can don the spandex. Phil Lord (part of the team behind The Lego Movie) shares writing credit along with co-director Peter Ramsey. Shameik Moore and Jake Johnson both provide voice work for Spidey. Other actors behind the mic include Hailee Steinfeld, Mahershala Ali, Liev Schreiber, Brian Tyree Henry, and Lily Tomlin.

Sony Pictures certainly has reviews on their side as this stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics even claim it’s the overall best of the series (this is now the seventh stand-alone entry focused on the Marvel web slinger). It appears destined for an Oscar nod in Best Animated Feature.

I believe the raves and familiarity with its title character should propel this to pleasing returns. With projections in the $30-$40 million range, I’m estimating Spider–Verse will premiere on the high-end of that spectrum and likely top it.

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse opening weekend prediction: $43.4 million

For my The Mule prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/05/the-mule-box-office-prediction/

For my Mortal Engines prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/06/mortal-engines-box-office-prediction/