Tag: Solo: A Star Wars Story

May 29-31 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/28): Some revisions as weekday numbers for Obsession now have me thinking it will gain from its sophomore frame and place second with Mandalorian now dipping to third. Additionally, my projection for Backrooms continues to rise and I’m now putting it at $57 million, up from $54 million.

Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Backrooms Box Office Prediction
The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction
Pressure Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.

That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.

Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.

As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.

Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:

1. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $57 million

2. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

3. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million

4. Michael

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. The Breadwinner

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

Box Office Results (May 22-25)

The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.

Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.

Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.

The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.

Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.

Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.

Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Mandalorian and Grogu

2008’s animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars is the only LucasFilm entry in nearly 50 years that failed to grab at least one Academy Award mention. The other 11 movies – Episodes I-IX, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and Solo: A Star Wars Story – have a combined 37 nominations. The Mandalorian and the Grogu could be the second title not to register with Oscar voters.

A continuation of the Disney Plus series, Jon Favreau directs with Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver headlining and Jeremy Allen White providing voiceover work. A number of reviews are claiming it’s an unimpressive feature in the famed franchise with 61% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 54 Metacritic. That’s lower than the numbers that greeted Solo in 2018. It received a sole nomination for Visual Effects. That category and Ludwig Göransson’s score might be Grogu‘s only shots at inclusion, but it is entirely possible it won’t be included in ballots at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction

Following a nearly six and a half year break between big screen releases, the Star Wars franchise blasts back into theaters over the Memorial Day holiday with The Mandalorian and Grogu. Building upon the Disney+ series The Mandalorian that aired from 2019 to 2023, Pedro Pascal returns in the title role with Jeremy Allen White voicing Rotta the Hutt and Sigourney Weaver in the human cast. Jon Favreau, who created the TV series, directs.

After Disney prioritized streaming content in the 2020s, this looks to kickstart multiplex studio efforts with Star Wars: Starfighter slated to open next Memorial Day weekend. Grogu is a real test for Star Wars fan loyalty. It can be argued that this would have fared better when the Disney+ show was fresher in the minds of viewers. The last two theatrical efforts -2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story and 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, were considered letdowns critically and commercially.

The best comp is Solo which debuted over the same holiday frame with $84 million from Friday to Sunday and $103 million when factoring Monday. Disney is surely hoping for nine figure bragging rights. I’m putting it under that for what would be considered a so-so start.

The Mandalorian and Grogu opening weekend prediction: $80.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $94.7 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Passenger prediction, click here:

Passenger Box Office Prediction

For my I Love Boosters prediction, click here:

I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

Ranking the Star Wars Movies

As the fourth day of May is upon us, it occurred to me that I’ve never done an official ranking of the 11 Star Wars movies that kicked off 46 years ago today.

I’m not going to go into detail beyond the actual numbers other than to say the following:

  • My #1 is the one most would pick so no points for originality there.
  • I do not, however, hold the first trilogy at 1-2-3. Yes, rewatches of Return of the Jedi through the years have lowered my opinion (especially compared to its predecessors).
  • I do not look at The Force Awakens as a disappointing retread of the 1977 original as its reputation has increasingly become. And I’m a pretty big admirer of its follow-up The Last Jedi. Not so much for The Rise of Skywalker.

Here’s my personal list (from weakest to strongest) of the series!

11. Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones (2002)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018)

9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)

8. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (1999)

7. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (2005)

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016)

5. Return of the Jedi (1983)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)

2. Star Wars (1977)

1. The Empire Strikes Back (1980)

Oscar Predictions: Fair Play

One of the buzziest titles to play at Sundance was writer/director Chloe Domont’s Fair Play, blending romance with corporate intrigue. It was snatched up for a princely sum of $20 million by Netflix with a planned rollout this year. The thriller stars Alden Ehrenreich (known by many from the title role in Solo: A Star Wars Story) and Phoebe Dynevor of Bridgerton fame).

Said to be a pic that will spark plenty of conversation, the Rotten Tomatoes score is 96%. This could be a streaming (and reportedly steamy) crowdpleaser that doesn’t warrant much awards chatter. Or Netflix could mount a campaign, especially for the original screenplay. We don’t know yet since they’ll have plenty of other features to tout come nominations time. Fair Play, at the least, announced itself as an option. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Top Gun: Maverick Box Office Prediction

***And a final update for Top Gun: Maverick as my prediction rises again to $113.4 million for the three-day and $138 million for the four-day. That it gives it the #2 all-time Memorial Day for both frames.

***Blogger’s Update (05/25): Significantly up-ticking my estimate once again. Now projecting a three-day of $103.7M (good for second biggest Memorial Day Friday to Sunday) and $124.4M for the four-day (third largest all-time). Sky is increasing the limit…

**Blogger’s Update (05/24): Estimate updated from a three and four-day projection, respectively, of $75.6M and $98.8M to $86.6M and $104.9M. That now gives Maverick the #7 largest Memorial Day weekend three-day and #6 four-day

It could be a record breaking memorable weekend for Tom Cruise as Top Gun: Maverick finally lands in theaters. The long gestating sequel arrives 36 years after the original made Cruise a superstar. The wait was only supposed to be 33-34 years, but production delays and COVID postponements altered the plan.

Joseph Kosinki, who previously directed the lead in 2013’s Oblivion, directs. Costars include Miles Teller, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Glen Powell, Ed Harris, Monica Barbaro, and Val Kilmer reprising his role as Iceman. Critics have certainly indicated this is worth the wait. Budgeted at a reported $150 million, reviews are impressive with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. There’s even Oscar buzz as it will surely be a contender in Sound and Song (with Lady Gaga crooning “Hold My Hand”).

Paramount is hopeful that Maverick will take the breath and money away from moviegoers over the Memorial Day frame. The loud buzz generated by critics should make this soar even higher than previously anticipated.

In doing so, we could see Tom cruise to a personal best opening. Somewhat surprisingly, his all-time largest opening is War of the Worlds at $64 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday period. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (the last flick to feature Cruise four years ago) is close behind at $61 million.

Maverick will, of course, have a four-day tally. That’s familiar territory for Cruise as the first three Mission: Impossible tales premiered over Memorial Day with the second one doing $70 million from Friday to Monday. However, it opened on the Wednesday before to bring its gross to $91 million.

First things first. I do believe Tom’s latest sequel will achieve his highest three day take ever. I also suspect there will be some projections for Maverick that will be too high. A four-day take of over $100 million is absolutely doable (and my prediction could rise in the coming days), but I’m skeptical. That’s uncharted territory for Mr. Cruise. A Friday to Sunday haul in the mid 70s seems likelier. If that happens, it should achieve mid 90s for the whole frame. That would give it the ninth best Memorial 3 day start – in between Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84 million) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park ($72 million). It would rise a spot to 8th for the four-day between the same two features at $103 million and $90 million, respectively. And that would be a memorable start indeed.

Top Gun: Maverick opening weekend prediction: $113.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $138 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The Bob’s Burgers Movie, click here:

The Bob’s Burgers Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch – Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

One day before its galactic release, the review embargo for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker has expired and the news is not so great. The ninth chapter of the ginormous franchise sits at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes. For all the talk about the mixed reaction to predecessor The Last Jedi in 2017, its RT score was 91%. Even last year’s mostly disregarded spin-off Solo: A Star Wars Story managed 70%.

So… what does that mean for Oscar attention? Well, any remote possibility of Skywalker playing in top line categories like Picture is gone. Yet possibilities for tech nods remain intact. When counting the eight official episodes and spin-offs Rogue One and Solo, the series as a whole has gathered 34 total nominations and won seven. Six of them went to the 1977 original with another for 1980’s sequel The Empire Strikes Back. That’s right… it’s been almost 40 years since a Star Wars pic has nabbed a competitive gold statue. And I don’t expect that streak to end here.

In this currently trilogy, 2015’s The Force Awakens received five nominations: Score for the legendary John Williams, Visual Effects, Editing, and both Sound categories. The Last Jedi got the same nods minus Editing. I anticipate Skywalker will probably be recognized for the same four as Jedi and win none. Interestingly, there’s a solid chance it loses three of them (Score and the Sounds) to 1917. As for Visual Effects, that could go to The Irishman or another epic Disney franchise finale Avengers: Endgame. 

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2018 FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions

We’ve had months of predictions and endless speculation on this blog about the 2018 Oscars and now it’s come to this. On Sunday, the 91st edition of the Academy Awards will air with your host…

As you’ve likely read, there actually is no emcee for this year’s ceremony. I’m not here to write about that. I’m here to make my final picks for the winners! Let’s break down each race one by one, shall we? And, of course, I’ll have a piece up Sunday night with my thoughts on how it all went down.

Best Picture

Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice

Analysis: First things first. It’s extremely rare that the winner here doesn’t have its director nominated. Therefore, two films that might have served as the biggest competition to Roma could now be seen as longer shots: A Star Is Born and Green Book. You could correctly point out that Argo achieved a victory just six years ago without Ben Affleck getting an individual nod. However, it had been 23 years prior to that (Driving Miss Daisy) when it had occurred previously. BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite are upset possibilities, but the smart money is on Alfonso Cuaron’s Netflix Mexican drama and it would mark the streaming service’s first win in the big race.

Predicted Winner: Roma

Best Director

Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

Analysis: I feel even more confident that Cuaron will take the gold here, even if Roma somehow comes up short in Picture. He’s run the table on precursors, including the DGA prize. It would be his second win in five years, after winning for 2013’s Gravity.

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

Best Actor

Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Analysis: This is a tough one as Malek and Bale have split a number of precursors. With the SAG Awards, I deemed it a coin flip and picked Malek. I was right. At the Golden Globes, they both won due to category splits. I won’t be surprised to see either win, but my 50/50 feeling going with Malek worked before

Predicted Winner: Malek

Best Actress

Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Analysis: Aparicio and McCarthy should be honored to be nominated. Colman and Gaga are threats, but Close has fared best in previous ceremonies and there’s the fact that she’s a highly respected performer who’s yet to win despite multiple nods.

Predicted Winner: Close

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Analysis: This category features the last two Oscar winners as Ali won in 2016 for Moonlight and Rockwell took it last year for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. They have far different chances to become two-time victors. Ali is the front-runner. Supporting Actor has seen upsets, but Ali looks strong.

Predicted Winner: Ali

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Analysis: Even though King didn’t get a SAG nod, they bestowed their award to Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place and she’s not even nominated. An Adams name call is feasible since she’s never won, but King will probably be crowned Sunday evening.

Predicted Winner: King

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born

Analysis: Star could perhaps shine here, but this really feels like the race where voters will recognize BlacKkKlansman. 

Predicted Winner: BlacKkKlansman

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, Vice

Analysis: This one is legitimately difficult and I think you can make a case for all of them. Roma is a distinct possibility as the Picture favorite and Green Book could make a showing. Yet my slight favorite here is The Favourite.

Predicted Winner: The Favourite

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Capernaum, Cold War, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters

Analysis: This could be interesting. As revealed above, Roma is my Picture pick. So it’s automatic that it wins here right? Not so fast. Cold War could get the consolation prize and I feel that’s even more possible since it nabbed a surprise nod for director Pawel Pawlikowski. I’m tempted to pick it, but I’ll say Roma manages the double win. However, if you wish to get creative in your office pool, this could be the race to do it.

Predicted Winner: Roma

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Analysis: Pixar has dominated this field for years. In most years, it would be risky to bet against them – therefore Incredibles 2. This might be the year to do it as Spider–Man arrived late in the year, swung the momentum, and swept the precursors.

Predicted Winner: Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: Free Solo, Hale County This Morning, This Evening, Minding the Gap, Of Fathers and Sons, RBG

Analysis: One of the biggest shockers when nominations came out was the omission of Mr. Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor?. I likely would’ve picked it to win had it been nominated. Now I believe this is between Solo and RBG. Reverence for the latter could swing it that way, but I’ll give a small edge to Solo.

Predicted Winner: Free Solo

Best Film Editing

Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Vice

Analysis: Bohemian Rhapsody won the significant precursor for its branch and The Favourite or BlacKkKlansman could factor in as well. My gut says Vice may get this one, however.

Predicted Winner: Vice

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star Is Born

Analysis: Major love for the foreign pics here and Cold War has a shot. This is probably Roma’s race to lose though.

Predicted Winner: Roma

Best Production Design

Nominees: Black Panther, The Favourite, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

Analysis: This one comes down to Panther and Favourite in my view and I’ll give the latter an ever so slight edge,

Predicted Winner: The Favourite

Best Costume Design

Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots

Analysis: Like Production Design, Panther and Favourite are the favorites. The best bet could be The Favourite, but Panther has to win something right?

Predicted Winner: Black Panther

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice

Analysis: A Border win isn’t out of the question, but Vice is the likely recipient here.

Predicted Winner: Vice

Best Sound Editing

Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma

Analysis: First Man and Panther could get this, but that Wembley Stadium sequence could cause Rhapsody to achieve gold status.

Predicted Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born

Analysis: Even though Star didn’t get in the other Sound race, Mixing seems like where it could be picked. I wouldn’t count out First Man, but I’ll guess Star wins here.

Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robin, First Man, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story

Analysis: It was a bit surprising that Black Panther missed the cut here. Its MCU counterpart Infinity is possible, but I’ll say this is the sole victory for First Man.

Predicted Winner: First Man

Best Original Score

Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

Analysis: Another chance for Panther lies here, but I’m going with a coin flip between BlacKkKlansman and Beale Street.

Predicted Winner: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Song

Nominees: “All the Stars” from Black Panther, “I’ll Fight” from RBG, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns, “Shallow” from A Star Is Born, “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Analysis: My last race is the easiest. “Shallow” is the massive favorite here.

Predicted Winner: “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

And there you have it. Enjoy the show Sunday night!

2018 FINAL Oscar Predictions

Well, folks, this is it. After months of weekly predictions and dozens of Oscar Watch posts, it’s time for my final Oscar picks in each feature film category (with an alternate listed as well). Nominations will be out Tuesday morning. I’ve used thousands of words to analyze the 2018 race and here’s the ones that count.

I’ll have analysis up Tuesday evening with how I did. Here we go!

Picture

A Star Is Born

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

Vice

Alternate – First Man

Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Alternate – Adam McKay, Vice

Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Alternate – John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Sam Rockwell, Vice

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Alternate – Marina de Tavira, Roma

Adapted Screenplay

A Star Is Born

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

Alternate – First Man

Original Screenplay

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

Alternate – Eighth Grade

Foreign Language Film

Burning

Capernaum

Cold War

Roma

Shoplifters

Alternate – Never Look Away

Animated Feature

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Alternate – Early Man

Documentary Feature

Free Solo

Minding the Gap

RBG

Three Identical Strangers

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Alternate – Shirkers

Film Editing

A Star Is Born

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

Vice

Alternate – Black Panther

Cinematography

Cold War

The Favourite

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

Alternate – A Star Is Born

Production Design

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

Alternate – First Man

Costume Design

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

Alternate – Crazy Rich Asians

Makeup and Hairstyling

Black Panther

Border

Vice

Alternate – Mary Queen of Scots

Sound Editing

A Quiet Place

A Star Is Born

Black Panther

First Man

Roma

Alternate – Bohemian Rhapsody

Sound Mixing

A Quiet Place

A Star Is Born

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

Alternate – Mary Poppins Returns

Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Ready Player One

Alternate – Solo: A Star Wars Story

Score

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

Alternate – Isle of Dogs

Song

“All the Stars” from Black Panther

“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin

“I’ll Fight” from RBG

”Shallow” from A Star Is Born

“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns

Alternate – “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

And my picks equate to the following movies getting these numbers in terms of nods:

10 Nominations

A Star Is Born, The Favourite, Roma

9 Nominations

Black Panther

7 Nominations

First Man

6 Nominations

Vice

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns

4 Nominations

Bohemian Rhapsody

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Cold War, First Reformed, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Border, Burning, Capernaum, Crazy Rich Asians, Dumplin, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shoplifters, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 17th Edition

It’s been two weeks since I’ve made Oscar predictions and it’s fair to say a lot has happened since then. The show never did find a host, but a host of significant precursors happened. There were the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The Directors Guild named their five nominees and they typically nail four of the five eventual nominees in that race. The last 14 days of action have changed my #1 rankings in some very big categories:

  • After consistently being ranked at #1, A Star Is Born now falls to second behind Roma.
  • Keeping with the theme, Christian Bale’s work in Vice vaults to first in Actor ahead of Bradley Cooper in Star.
  • Once again, a Star dips from the top spot as Glenn Close (The Wife) is first in Actress above Lady Gaga.
  • After Globe and Critics victories, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse is #1 in Animated Feature instead of Pixar’s Incredibles 2.

You can can read all the rankings below and on Sunday, I will reveal my final picks for nominees ahead of Tuesday morning’s announcements!

Best Picture

1. Roma (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Green Book (PR: 4)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Black Panther (PR: 6)

6. The Favourite (PR: 3)

7. Vice (PR: 8)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. First Man (PR: 9)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)

12. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)

13. First Reformed (PR: 15)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Eighth Grade

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

7. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Best Actor

1. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 10)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

10. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: 10)

9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leave No Trace (PR: 7)

7. Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: 9)

10. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Hate U Give

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. First Reformed (PR: 4)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Cold War (PR: 10)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

10. Private Life (PR: 8)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 4)

5. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Capernaum (PR: 5)

7. The Guilty (PR: 6)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse (PR: 2)

2. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 8)

8. The Grinch (PR: 7)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 10)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. RBG (PR: 6)

4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 4)

5. Shirkers (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Minding the Gap (PR: 3)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

8. On Her Shoulders (PR: 10)

9. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

10. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

4. Vice (PR: 6)

5. The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 4)

7. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Cold War (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. The Rider (PR: 9)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Roma (PR: 5)

4. First Man (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

5. Border (PR: 3)

6. Suspiria (PR: 7)

7. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 8)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 7)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

1. Black Panther (PR: 3)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 1)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)

8. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 7)

10. Ant–Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Vice (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Ready Player One

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

5. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. “OYAHYTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 8)

And that equates to the following movies getting these numbers when it comes to nominations:

10 Nominations

A Star Is Born, The Favourite

9 Nominations

Black Panther, First Man, Roma

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice

3 Nominations

Bohemian Rhapsody, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

Cold War, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Burning, Crazy Rich Asians, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Never Look Away, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?