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2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 8th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions have arrived once again! Some important developments from last week to this one:

  • Green Book rises and First Man falls. While I still have the latter receiving a Picture nomination, I’ve put in Peter Farrelly (Green Book) over Man maker Damien Chazelle in Director. In Best Actor, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) gets the nod over Ryan Gosling’s work. In Adapted Screenplay, it’s Widows in and First Man out. With Green Book, it now rises to the #1 spot in Original Screenplay over Roma.
  • The AFI Fest premieres tonight with the world debut of On the Basis of Sex. We’ll have a lot more info on its Oscar viability in just hours. The same festival will bring us the first screening and buzz for Mary Queen of Scots next week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

7. First Man (PR: 6)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 12)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)

13. The Mule (PR: 13)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 11)

15. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

9. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Robert Forster, What They Had

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 6)

10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

8. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Leave No Trace

Best Original Screenplay

1. Green Book (PR: 3)

2. Roma (PR: 1)

3. The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)

7. First Reformed (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 6)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 9)

8. Border (PR: 10)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

10. Dogman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Guility

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Mirai (PR: 4)

5. Early Man (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 5)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 10)

8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Night is Short, Walk on Girl

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

1. Free Solo (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Science Fair (PR: 5)

9. Quincy (PR: 10)

10. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Price of Everything

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 6)

7. Vice (PR: 5)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

July 22

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

4. The Favourite (PR: 6)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 9)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Cold War (PR: 5)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. First Man (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Roma (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Colette

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

5. Colette (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)

10. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

A Wrinkle in Time

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Favourite (PR: 3)

2. Black Panther (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Vice (PR: 5)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

7. Colette (PR: 9)

8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

10. Suspiria (PR: 8)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Roma (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 5)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 7)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ready Player One

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Annihilation (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

5. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Roma (PR: 4)

8. Suspiria (PR: 9)

9. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)

10. Green Book (PR: 5)

Dropped Out:

Incredibles 2

Colette

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

8. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 10)

9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)

10. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)

And that breaks down the following number of nominations for each film:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

11 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book

4 Nominations

Mary Queen of Scots, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Poppins Returns

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows

1 Nomination

At Eternity’s Gate, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Annihilation, The Hate U Give, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Early Man, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, RBG, Minding the Gap

 

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 1st Edition

My first Oscar predictions in the month of November come with reductions and expansions. I am slimming the list of 25 Best Picture possibilities to 15 and the other major categories from 15 to 10. As you can see, I am also including all of the other feature-length races for the first time from Documentary to Animated Feature to Foreign Language Feature and the techs.

So what are the developments worth discussing? Well…

  • In these initial projections for all races, A Star Is Born and First Man tie for most nominations with 12 apiece. Truth be told, I’m skeptical that First Man will get there. Its poor box office performance could hinder its possibilities in some races. While I’m relatively confident it will score multiples nods in the technical categories, both director Damien Chazelle and star Ryan Gosling are questionable, even though I currently have them both getting honored.
  • In Best Picture, BlacKkKlansman rises from 6th to 4th in the list of predicted nominees. It’s a good week in general for the Spike Lee pic as I’m including Adam Driver for the first time in the list of predicted Supporting Actor nominees, replacing Sam Rockwell in Vice.
  • We got a surprise announcement this week as Kenneth Branagh’s All Is True will open in late December for a qualifying run. The director stars as William Shakespeare in the late stages of his life with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen. I will likely wait for some buzz before possibly listing it as a predicted nominee. In addition to Picture, Director, acting slots, and screenplay – it has the potential in down the line races such as Costume Design and Production Design. It will certainly be one to keep an eye on.
  • For Foreign Language Feature, Roma is tops in my first predictions while it maintains its #2 spot in Best Picture. Pixar finds itself in familiar territory with Incredibles 2 leading Animated Feature. In what should be a competitive Documentary Feature race, Free Solo starts out at #1 with Three Identical Strangers close behind.

And with that, here’s what November brings as far as Oscar predictions!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

5. Green Book (PR: 4)

6. First Man (PR: 5)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

11. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)

12. Widows (PR: 10)

13. The Mule (PR: 12)

14. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)

15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place

Eighth Grade

Boy Erased

Leave No Trace

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Mary Poppins Returns

The Hate U Give

Cold War

Ben Is Back

Hereditary

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Widows

Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

John Krasinski, A Quiet Place

Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 7)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns 

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher

Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 14)

10. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Vice

Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex

Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite 

Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots 

Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Dianne Wiest, The Mule

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 11)

9. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Boy Erased

Disobedience

The Sisters Brothers

The Wife

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

7. First Reformed (PR: 6)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)

10. The Mule (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ben Is Back

Private Life

Hereditary

Stan and Ollie

Sorry to Bother You

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. Shoplifters

4. Girl

5. Capernaum

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning

7. Birds of Passage

8. The Guilty

9. Never Look Away

10. Border

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Mirai

5. Ruben Brandt, Collector

Other Possibilities:

6. Lu Over the Wall

7. Early Man

8. Night is Short, Walk on Girl

9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

10. Smallfoot

Best Documentary Feature

1. Free Solo

2. Three Identical Strangers

3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

4. RBG

5. Science Fair

Other Possibilities:

6. Minding the Gap

7. Dark Money

8. Crime + Punishment

9. The Price of Everything

10. Quincy

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born

2. Roma

3. First Man

4. The Favourite

5. Vice

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows

7. If Beale Street Could Talk

8. Black Panther

9. BlacKkKlansman

10. July 22

Best Cinematography

1. Roma

2. First Man

3. A Star Is Born

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Cold War

Other Possibilities:

6. The Favourite

7. Black Panther

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

9. Widows

10. Mary Queen of Scots

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. First Man

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Mary Queen of Scots

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born

7. Roma

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

9. Colette

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Queen of Scots

4. Colette

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians

7. A Star Is Born

8. If Beale Street Could Talk

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

10. A Wrinkle in Time

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther

2. Mary Queen of Scots

3. The Favourite

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan and Ollie

5. Vice

6. Mary Poppins Returns

7. A Star Is Born

8. Suspiria

9. Colette

10. A Wrinkle in Time

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man

2. Black Panther

3. A Quiet Place

4. A Star Is Born

5. Incredibles 2

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

7. Avengers: Infinity War

8. Roma

9. Mary Poppins Returns

10. Annihilation

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man

2. A Star Is Born

3. A Quiet Place

4. Black Panther

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. Roma

8. Incredibles 2

9. Avengers: Infinity War

10. Ready Player One

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. Black Panther

4. Ready Player One

5. Annihilation

Other Possibilities

6. Mary Poppins Returns

7. A Quiet Place

8. A Wrinkle in Time

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. First Man

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. Roma

5. Green Book

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Queen of Scots

7. Incredibles 2

8. Colette

9. Suspiria

10. The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther

3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born

4. “The Place Where Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give

Other Possibilities:

6. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex

7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born

8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns

9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG

10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud

And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for each feature:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born, First Man

10 Nominations

The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Cold War, Incredibles 2

1 Nomination

Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Colette, Eighth Grade, Ready Player One, The Hate U Give, The Wife, Capernaum, Free Solo, Girl, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ruben Brandt, Collector, Science Fair. Shoplifters, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Box Office Predictions: August 3-5

Blogger’s Note II (08/02/18): I am revising Christopher Robin down to $29.6 million, meaning I’m now predicting Mission: ImpossibleFallout will take the top spot.

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): I am revising my estimate for Darkest Minds from $8.7 million down to $6.3 million, which leaves it outside the top five.

The month of August at the box office kicks off with three new releases attempting to dislodge Tom Cruise and his IMF agents from the top spot: Disney’s Christopher Robin, Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, and Fox’s YA adaptation The Darkest Minds. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/christopher-robin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-spy-who-dumped-me-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-darkest-minds-box-office-prediction/

Paramount is celebrating the franchise best opening yet with Mission: Impossible – Fallout and I’m anticipating a second weekend drop in the mid 40s range. That should put it in an extremely tight battle with Winnie the Pooh and company, which I have premiering in the mid 30s (though it could go higher).

The #3 spot should go to Spy, which I have slated for a mid teens start. Both Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2 dipped more harshly in their sophomore frames than I estimated. Therefore my high double digits projection for The Darkest Mind could be enough for it to nab #4 (though it could be neck and neck with Mamma).

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $32 million

2. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $29.6 million

3. The Spy Who Dumped Me

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (July 27-29) 

22 years after part 1, Tom Cruise achieved his highest opening in the Mission: Impossible franchise as Fallout took in $61.2 million (a touch below my $63.6 million estimate). Bolstered by terrific reviews, the sixth entry in the spy saga managed to outdo previous record holder Mission: Impossible II‘s $57 million way back in 2000. It’s safe to say Mr. Cruise is planning his stunts for a seventh pic.

Holdovers all experienced harsher declines that I figured. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again remained in second place with $15.1 million (I said $19.8 million) to bring its two-week tally to $70 million.

Last week’s champ The Equalizer 2 was third with $14 million compared to my $17.1 million projection. The Denzel Washington sequel fell a mighty 61% in its sophomore outing.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation was fourth with $12.2 million (I went with my $13.6 million). It’s earned $119 million overall.

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, despite positive critical reaction, had a lackluster beginning in fifth place with $10.4 million, well under my $16.4 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Teen Titans! Go To the Movies

This Friday, Warner Bros animation is out with Teen Titans! Go To the Movies based on the Cartoon Network series. It’s a superhero spoof blending the characters of the show with notable icons from their catalog, including Nicolas Cage voicing Superman and Jimmy Kimmel as the Caped Crusader.

Early reviews are quite encouraging and it currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. It has the potential to be a summer sleeper that could appeal to kids and their parents. Will  Oscar take note?

That could be a reach. Warner Bros has had a critically acclaimed output recently with their Lego series. However, The Lego Movie, The Lego Batman Movie, and The Lego Ninjago Movie all failed to garner recognition in the Best Animated Feature category.

We can pretty safely say that two 2018 releases are already in for nods: Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs and Pixar’s superhero toon Incredibles 2. And there’s plenty more animated material to come. Despite positive buzz, that could mean Academy voters could fail to remember the Titans in a few months.

Box Office Predictions: July 27-29

Tom Cruise and his IMF forces are back in theaters for the sixth time as Mission: Impossible – Fallout debuts this weekend along with the superhero animated tale Teen Titans! Go To the Movies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/17/mission-impossible-fallout-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/18/teen-titans-go-to-the-movies-box-office-prediction/

Fallout is getting some of the best reviews that the 22-year-old franchise has ever received and the Ethan Hunt adventure should easily top the charts with a low to mid 60s haul.

It’s the #2 spot that could be a little more interesting. In a bit of a surprise this past weekend, The Equalizer 2 edged by Mamma Mia! Here Go Again for the #1 position. However, Fallout provides more direct competition for Denzel and it’s likely that Mamma retains the runner-up position with Equalizer falling to third.

And that’s only if Teen Titans doesn’t manage to outperform my estimate. My forecast for it has dwindled over the last few days and my low teens expectation could put it in a close battle for fourth with the third weekend of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. 

Here’s how I see the top five playing out:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $63.6 million

2. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. The Equalizer 2

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Teen Titans! Go To the Movies

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

Box Office Results (July 20-22) 

Denzel Washington continued to prove his box office potency as The Equalizer 2 was a surprise #1 over Mamma Mia with $36 million, easily outpacing my $26.8 million estimate. That tops the $34 million earned out of the gate by its predecessor. With the Mission competition coming up, I expect this to drop approximately 50%.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, despite failing to place first, opened right in line with expectations with a pleasing $34.9 million. That’s a bit higher than my $33.5 million estimate. As stated above, I expect it to maintain its #2 position this weekend.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation dropped to third with $23.7 million in its sophomore frame for $91 million total. That’s on target with my $24.5 million prediction.

Ant-Man and the Wasp was fourth with $16.5 million (I said $15.2 million) to bring its tally to $165 million.

Incredibles 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The Pixar record breaker took in $11.8 million and it’s up to $557 million.

I mistakenly had Skyscraper in the top 5, but it was sixth with $11.3 million (a tad under my $12 million projection). The underwhelming Dwayne Johnson action pic has made $47 million.

Lastly, Unfriended: Dark Web couldn’t generate an audience with just $3.4 million (I went higher at $5.1 million). That said, the Blumhouse horror sequel reportedly only cost $1 million, so I’m sure the studio isn’t sweating it too much.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies Box Office Prediction

***Blogger’s Note II (07/26): On the eve of its premiere, I’m bumping my estimate back up from $13.4M to $16.4M

**Blogger’s Note (07/20): My estimate for Titans has dwindled from $17.4M to just $13.4M. That could mean a debut in the lower rungs of the top 5.

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies attempts to be the next animated hit of the summer when it debuts next weekend. This is a big screen version of the Cartoon Network’s series that debuted five years ago focusing on some fresh DC Comics superheroes. The cast of the show is here to voice their characters including Greg Cipes, Scott Menville, Khary Payton, Tara Strong, and Hynden Walch. And we have some familiar faces joining the voice over party including Kristen Bell, Will Arnett, Jimmy Kimmel as Batman, James Corden, Halsey, and Lil Yachty. Nicolas Cage, who was supposed to play the Man of Steel in a scrapped live-action Tim Burton pic nearly two decades ago, finally gets to be Superman.

Fans of the series won’t propel this to the heights of other animated efforts this season like Incredibles 2 or Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. While Mission: Impossible – Fallout will undoubtedly dominate the charts next weekend, Titans will make a go for the #2 spot over holdovers Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2. 

A mid to high teens gross might be enough to achieve it and that’s the ballpark where I have this landing.

Teens Titans Go! To The Movies opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million

For my Mission: Impossible – Fallout prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/17/mission-impossible-fallout-box-office-prediction/