Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 20th Edition

Greetings all as my Oscar predictions return! My Thursday predictions will now become my Monday predictions as I missed last Thursday due to vacation. The biggest development of the last 11 days was that Steven Spielberg’s The Post screened last night. While it’s under strict embargo still from reviews, word leaking out currently is pretty encouraging and it’s bolstered both the picture and Meryl Streep’s chances for Oscar recognition (and possibly its director and Tom Hanks as well). It’s enough that I’ve got it going from 1 predicted nod a couple weeks ago to 4 today. A word of caution: with the embargo in place, I would describe my current Post placements as fluid.

You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll be back next Monday with fresh predictions!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Mudbound (PR: 6)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Lady Bird (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: 9)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Get Out (PR: 11)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 10)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)

14. Detroit (PR: 14)

15. Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Last Flag Flying

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 7)

7. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 9)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 8)

10. Jordan Peele, Get Out (Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

5. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 9)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

10. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 6)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour

Will Poulter, Detroit

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

10. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 6)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 5)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

9. Stronger (PR: 9)

10. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Get Out (PR: 5)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: 9)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 7)

7. Ferdinand (PR: 5)

8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 9)

9. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. In the Fade (PR: 2)

3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)

4. The Square (PR: 5)

5. Foxtrot (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)

7. Loveless (PR: 3)

8. Happy End (PR: 7)

9. The Divine Order (PR: 10)

10. Tom of Finland (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)

2. Jane (PR: 2)

3. Icarus (PR: 4)

4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)

5. Strong Island (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kedi (PR: 8)

7. Risk (PR: 5)

8. Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)

10. Faces Places (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Human Flow

Step

One of Us

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

7. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

9. Detroit (PR: 10)

10. Get Out (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Mudbound

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Call Me by Your Name

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)

8. Mudbound (PR: 9)

9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel

mother!

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Beguiled (PR: 5)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Post (PR: 9)

8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)

9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)

7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

8. It (PR: 9)

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)

7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)

8. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 10)

9. Coco (PR: 7)

10. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

7. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)

9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Coco

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

5. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Coco

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

3. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

4. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)

5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)

7. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)

10. “Jump” from Step (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes

“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

And that leaves us with the following breakdown of nominations:

12 Nominations

The Shape of Water

10 Nominations

Dunkirk, Darkest Hour

6 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Mudbound, Lady Bird, The Post, Phantom Thread

3 Nominations

Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman, 

1 Nomination

Stronger, Breathe, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, The Disaster Artist, Get Out, Coco, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Foxtrot, Jane, Icarus, Strong Island, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, Fifty Shades Darker. 

We’ll see you next Monday with updated projections!

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