Absurdist crime comedy I Love Boosters hopes to make off with respectable box office grosses on May 22nd. This is Boots Riley’s follow-up to 2018’s acclaimed Sorry to Bother You. The eclectic cast includes Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
The Neon release was first screened at South by Southwest in March to fresh reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes, 73 Metacritic). Debuting over the Memorial Day weekend, the real question is whether this manages to play between the coasts. That could be a challenge.
Budgeted for a reported $20 million, it would exceed expectations if it gets past $5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame. I’m projecting that it will not.
I Love Boosters opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.5 million (Friday to Monday)
For my The Mandalorian and Grogu prediction, click here:
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:
We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.
He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.
We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.
John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.
For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?
The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
It might be Oscar weekend, but it’s also time for South by Southwest which is premiering numerous movies and TV shows. The Austin fest isn’t really a breeding ground for eventual Academy fare though 2022’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once did kick off there.
SXSW is known more for showcasing odder and independent spirited movies. The Oscar bait usually saves itself for Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Nevertheless Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters is an eagerly awaited title that served as opening selection.
This is the rapper and political activist turned filmmaker’s sophomore feature after his acclaimed 2018 debut Sorry to Bother You. The satire centers on a group of shoplifters boasts an eclectic cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
Early buzz indicates Riley has another critical hit with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Reviews also infer that it’s far out there similar to Bother. Perhaps Original Screenplay could be in play at the Oscars, but this might be more tailored to the Independent Spirit Awards or the Gothams (two ceremonies where Riley’s inaugural effort showed up). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Alex Scharfman’s Death of a Unicorn is the latest in a lengthy list of eat the rich pics over the past few years. This one is mixed with some centuries old European folklore pertaining to the title characters and Jenna Ortega bringing her mopey teen attitude inside its mansion walls. The auto accident that kicks off the multi-genre exercise should ensure more B-movie scares and humor. It’s curiously low on both and dodgy CGI doesn’t help. While not a complete wreck, it’s damaged goods.
Elliot (Paul Rudd) is a widowed attorney en route to the sprawling estate (doubling as a nature preserve) of his pharmaceutical empire boss Odell Leopold (Richard E. Grant). Daughter Ridley (Ortega) is reluctantly along for the ride when they smash into a creature that sure seems like the mythical beast of legend. When Ridley touches the wounded creature’s horn, a connection is made before Dad tire irons the animal.
At the Leopolds, Elliot at first tries to conceal the roadkill in his hatchback and get down to business with Odell, wife Belinda (Téa Leoni), and clueless and hobby hopping son Shepard (a game Will Poulter). Yet the roadkill might not be actually killed and its elders lurk on the property grounds. Meanwhile Ridley googles the history of unicorn mythos and it indicates a violent near future. The Leopolds plot a way to increase their wealth despite the dangerous situation.
When the horn piercing bloodletting finally commences, Unicorn hadn’t yet added compelling ingredients to its menu of top 1% satire combined with a familiar daddy-daughter healing subplot. I was hoping the righteous kills from the otherworldly beings would bring the gory and guilty pleasures. Subpar visual effects tame those aspects. That leaves us with occasional laughs courtesy of Poulter and Anthony Carrigan’s unappreciated family butler. The overall results are served up in middling fashion.
Taken from his real life experiences fighting in the Iraq War, Ray Mendoza co-directs Warfare which releases April 11th. The other filmmaker behind the camera is Alex Garland in his follow-up to Civil War. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai plays Mendoza with a supporting cast including Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Joseph Quinn, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, and Charles Melton.
The A24 release (which also distributed Civil War) is one of a handful of pics next weekend looking to gross around $10 million, give or take. Reviews for Warfare are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. Yet I don’t see this approaching the $25 million that Civil over-indexed at during the same April frame last year.
A higher than expected veteran/action fans turnout could push this up beyond my forecast, but I’ll say this falls under $10 million.
A year after Civil War, Alex Garland is back with his follow-up Warfare on April 11th. This time he’s co-directing with Ray Mendoza, an Iraq War Navy SEAL recounting his own experiences in that theater. The cast includes D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (as Mendoza), Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, Joseph Quinn, and Charles Melton.
At just over 90 minutes, Warfare is particularly being lauded for its technical achievements. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 94% with a 78 Metacritic. I don’t see this as a Best Picture play. Some thought Civil War could sneak in last year though its momentum never truly materialized.
Where this could contend is Best Sound as reviews continuously praise that aspect. Warfare could join other 21st century genre titles like The Hurt Locker, Zero Dark Thirty, Lone Survivor, American Sniper, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Hacksaw Ridge, Dunkirk, 1917, and All Quiet on the Western Front in the auditory field. It’s early in the game, but don’t be surprised if it does (though it’s worth noting Civil War didn’t make that cut). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After being unveiled at South by Southwest earlier this month, A24’s Death of a Unicorn gallops into theaters March 28th. The latest chapter in the eat the rich comedy horror genre comes from writer/director Alex Scharfman with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega headlining. Costars include Will Poulter, Téa Leoni, and Richard E. Grant.
Critical reaction is mixed with 63% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 56 Metacritic. Better reviews could’ve bolstered the buzz. A debut in the neighborhood of Abigail ($10.2 million) is certainly feasible. There is competition from The Woman in the Yard (a more serious scary offering) that could keep genre fans away. I’ll say Unicorn falls under $10 million unless Ortega’s Wednesday fans turn out in larger force than I’m anticipating.
Death of a Unicorn opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
Daniel Minahan is primarily known for his TV directorial work on Deadwood, Games of Thrones, and House of Cards. His efforts move to the big screen on April 25th with On Swift Horses. The period piece romantic drama stars Daisy Edgar-Jones of Where the Crawdads Sing fame and Saltburn‘s Jacob Elordi. Supporting players include Will Poulter, Diego Calva, and Sasha Calle.
Horses was first seen at the Toronto Film Festival last fall with Sony Pictures Classics snatching up distribution rights. There’s praise for the leads, production design, and cinematography. Yet the 67% Rotten Tomatoes meter and nearly identical 68 on Metacritic indicates the mixed reaction. Considering that coupled with the spring release date, don’t expect this to win, place, or show on the 2025 awards calendar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A24’s Death of a Unicorn has screened at South by Southwest prior to its March 28th theatrical premiere. The horror comedy from Alex Scharfman stars Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega as a father-daughter who accidentally cause the title of the film to occur. This displeases another unicorn. The supporting cast includes Will Poulter, Téa Leoni, Richard E. Grant, and Anthony Carrigan.
Early reviews are complimentary mixed with so-so notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 70% with Metacritic at 60. Unicorn represents the latest feature in a growing eat the rich sub genre that includes Triangle of Sadness, The Menu, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Saltburn. Some of those titles received awards attention. Don’t expect Death to. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 marches to the beat of the writer-director James Gunn’s carefully curated playlist of the mawkish blended with the macabre. The actual needle drops are plentiful from Radiohead to Florence and the Machine and Earth, Wind & Fire and Spacehog (there’s actually CG swine in space in case you were wondering). Storyline A inflicts enough grotesque violence on cute furry creatures that I anticipated Sarah McLachlan piping up with a syrupy ballad, but it isn’t to be.
Team captain Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) is far from over the death of Gamora (Zoe Saldaña) in Avengers: Infinity War as we begin. Since it’s the MCU, she didn’t perish in the traditional way. The character was back as a different version of herself and with amnesia of her primary franchise’s activities in Avengers: Endgame. Now the leader of the thieving Ravagers, Gamora reunites with the old gang when Rocket (voiced by Bradley Cooper) is attacked and left critically wounded. As a reminder, the team also consists of Gamora’s half sister Nebula (Karen Gillan), charmingly dense warrior Drax (Dave Bautista), empath Mantis (Pom Klementieff), and Bob Ross favorite Groot with Vin Diesel grumbling his limited dialogue.
The highly intelligent raccoon Rocket is given the full flashback origin treatment in the third volume. His demented creator is Orgocorp CEO High Evolutionary (a scenery devouring Chukwudi Iwuji) who specializes in developing hybrid creatures and discarding them if they don’t meet his standards. Spoiler: the vast majority do not. Rocket is one of his most prized subjects from his dozens of batches at Orgocorp. It is only at the corporate headquarters that his life can be saved so the Guardians set course.
Along the way there’s stops at other galaxies including the bizarro Counter-Earth with its populace of human/animal hybrids. That extended sequence is an example of Gunn at his best with the grimly comedic gumbo. It works well on that planet and in plenty of other moments. Rocket’s backstory does manage to pull the heartstrings fairly successfully.
All other subplots are given the short shrift. Drax and Mantis have a few humorous bits though they’re truly secondary characters this time (as is Groot). Even the presence of Gamora, while giving the gifted Saldaña basically a fresh character to play, takes a backseat to Rocket’s launch in the plot. I’ll note that it’s taken this long to mention Adam Warlock (Will Poulter). He was teased at the end of volume 2 as a nemesis to the title heroes. Adam is responsible for Rocket’s wounds and then the script doesn’t really know what the heck to do with him. He could’ve been written out the script entirely and it would’ve made zero difference. Pratt’s work as Peter Quill/Star-Lord is still a treat. It’s an MCU casting decision that ranks almost as high as Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man. He manages not to be overshadowed by his omnivorous costar.
Of the various sub-franchises in the Marvel Cinematic Universe containing three entries or more, Guardians is surprisingly the first where quality flows in order of release. That’s not to say the quality is missing. It’s that the mix has more lowlights than the previous two and definitely runs longer than necessary. Gunn still manages to make the sentimental and sometimes sadistic concoction worthwhile and it’s a cut above most MCU material post Endgame.
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