Box Office Predictions: November 24-26

It’s Thanksgiving week at the box office as Disney/Pixar’s Coco looks to reign supreme over the leftovers and Denzel Washington’s courtroom drama Roman J. Israel Esq. also expands nationwide. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

My Coco estimate is likely to put it in the #1 spot over Justice League, due to the latter’s rather disappointing debut (more on that below). The #3 position should easily go to Wonder, which opened with great results this past weekend (more on that below as well).

The Thanksgiving weekend is traditionally one where holdovers experience smallish declines and I see that holding true for titles such as Thor: Ragnarok, Daddy’s Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express, and The Star. 

As for Denzel’s Roman, my $5 million prediction for it over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend puts it outside the top 7 I’m estimating today. And here they are…

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $54.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $74.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million (representing a drop of 8%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 25%)

5. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 18%)

6. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 22%)

7. The Star

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 12%)

Box Office Results (November 17-19)

Warner Bros. is dealing with some disappointment this weekend as Justice League suffered a lackluster opening. I had DC’s version of The Avengers nabbing the third highest premiere of 2017 with $128.4 million. However, it grossed well under forecasts with $93.8 million.

That debut is good for just the 8th largest of the year, about $10 million behind Wonder Woman, which wasn’t expected to make the bank that it did. It serves as the DC Cinematic Universe’s smallest opening thus far. That Wonder Woman sequel can’t come soon enough…

The other story of the weekend was the terrific debut of Wonder in second, which defied all expectations with $27.5 million (way above my meager $12.9 million forecast). With great word-of-mouth, expect the drama to perform well over the holiday weekend and for the next several weeks.

Thor: Ragnarok dropped to third after two weeks on top with $21.6 million (under my $25 million estimate) to bring its total to $247 million.

Daddy’s Home 2 was fourth in weekend #2 with $14.4 million (shy of my $15.9 million projection) for a $50 million overall tally.

In its sophomore weekend, Murder on the Orient Express was fifth with $13.8 million (I said $14.5 million) for $51 million total.

Debuting in sixth place was the faith-based animated pic The Star, which pretty much met expectations with $9.8 million (in line with $10.3 million prediction). It could benefit from low declines over Thanksgiving.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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