Box Office Predictions: December 1-3

The December box office begins slowly with Thanksgiving/November leftovers sure to rule the charts. There are no new wide releases this weekend as Hollywood takes a breath to prepare for the would-be Christmas season blockbusters.

In other words, it’s a rather dull week. The post Turkey Day weekend is known for seeing holdovers have rather significant drops from the holiday frame that preceded it and that should hold true here. I don’t look for much change in the rankings as Pixar’s Coco should easily retain the top spot.

And with that, my top 6 predictions:

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

2. Justice League 

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 59%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok 

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Daddy’s Home 2 

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

Box Office Results (November 24-26)

As expected (especially after the disappointing opening of Justice League), Pixar’s Coco topped the Thanksgiving charts with $50.8 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend. Since its Wednesday start, it’s made $72.9 million. That’s a touch under my respective forecasts of $54.1 million and $74.6 million yet it’s still a solid debut for the studio as it looks to play well in the coming weekends. It stands an excellent chance at being the #1 picture for three weeks in a row before a certain other Disney property is unleashed on December 15th.

Justice League dropped to second with its continued less than anticipated earnings at $41 million, right on target with my $41.6 million projection. The DC pic has earned $171 million thus far and is on pace to be the lowest earner in its particular cinematic universe.

Wonder was third with $22.6 million. I was a tad higher at $25.4 million. Regardless, the sleeper hit has surpassed all expectations and taken in $69 million as it looks to join the $100 million club in the coming weeks.

Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $16.8 million, in line with my prediction of $16.2 million. The MCU hit has amassed $277 million.

Daddy’s Home 2 took the five-spot with $13.2 million, a tad ahead of my $11.9 million estimate for a total of $72 million.

Murder on the Orient Express was right behind in sixth with $13.1 million (I was lower at $10.8 million). The Kenneth Branagh mystery, which will have a sequel with his Poirot character returning, stands at $74 million.

The faith-based animated The Star was seventh in its sophomore frame with $6.9 million compared to my $8.6 million forecast for $22 million overall.

Finally, Denzel Washington’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. failed to impress, debuting wide in ninth with just $4.4 million (I said $5 million). With no awards buzz and middling buzz, expect it to fade quickly.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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