Tag Archives: Daddy’s Home 2

Instant Family Box Office Prediction

Mark Wahlberg and Rose Byrne are a couple who bring in a trio of foster kids in next weekend’s comedy Instant Family. The pic reunites Wahlberg with director Sean Anders, who made both of the successful Daddy’s Home features. Costars include Isabela Moner, Octavia Spencer, and Tig Notaro.

Family was originally scheduled to hit screens in February 2019 before Paramount pushed up the date. It will try to bring in family audiences on a weekend where Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opens directly against it and The Grinch will be in its sophomore frame. That could certainly limit the potential for a robust debut, but the studio will hope that word of mouth carries it to a leggy run over the holidays.

I’ll predict a high teens teens premiere is what we’ll see as the currently unknown buzz will determine the rest of its fate.

Instant Family opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/06/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-box-office-prediction/

For my Widows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/widows-box-office-prediction/

Daddy’s Home 2 Movie Review

Daddy’s Home was a rather unremarkable comedy that managed to elicit a few laughs and coast on the talents of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg. It also made a boatload of money and so we enter the territory of the likely unplanned sequel that often feels that way.

The concept, just as in part 1, is pretty simple. The 2015 original pitted softie stepdad Brad (Ferrell) against harder edged real dad Dusty (Wahlberg) vying for the kids attention. Part 2 finds them in a seemingly happy place as Co-Dads. That is until their papas travel to see them for Christmas. And wouldn’t you know it? They exhibit some of the opposite traits that caused Brad and Dusty their problems. John Lithgow is the squishy and overly attentive Brad dad and Mel Gibson is the alpha male and barely attentive Dusty dad. Their presence threatens to upend the recent harmony of their sons. As in the first, there’s an abundance of physical hijinks that follow… most of it directed toward Ferrell. Kids get drunk. They discover girls. Lots of father/son bonding and non bonding happens. The 1980s holiday relief anthem “Do They Know It’s Christmas?” gets more attention than it’s been granted in some time.

Like in the original Home model, the jokes here are mostly predicable and bland with a few genuinely funny parts sprinkled in. Anyone looking for sincere character motivations and real emotion in a Yuletide pic should look elsewhere. In fact, Gibson’s character is kind of an inexplicable monster when you stop and really think about it. It’s  not much worth doing so.

Daddy’s Home 2 isn’t bad and neither was its predecessor. It is utterly forgettable and a little more so than what preceded it. In my review of #1, I stated that when I think of Ferrell and Wahlberg together – my mind goes to the often inspired The Other Guys. I called Daddy’s Home “The Other Movie”. This is the other other one.

** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: December 29-January 1

Well folks – here we are as 2017 closes out with another four-day holiday weekend and it’s enough to make a great mathematician’s head spin.

Blogger’s note: I am not a great mathematician. Nevertheless, I will plow forward with estimates as there’s no new releases. Yet there are a multitude of holiday holdovers looking to match or even surpass what they accomplished this past Christmas weekend.

You have to travel all the way to 2006 for the last time Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a Monday. When that occurred 11 years ago, the bulk of pictures significantly exceeded the three-day grosses from the December 22-24 frame. Most even experienced an uptick from the Yuletide four-day frame. We should see that happen again as moviegoers have lots of free time during this end of year period, they’re using those gift certificates, and the kiddos are off school.

Here’s how I have the top 10 looking to close out another year on the box office charts:

**Please note that the increases noted would be from the three-day Christmas grosses (22-24) to the four-day New Year’s weekend predictions…

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $77.8 million (representing an increase of 9%)

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $58 million (representing an increase of 59%)

3. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $25.1 million (representing an increase of 26%)

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing an increase of 69%)

5. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 71%)

6. Coco

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 82%)

7. Darkest Hour

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing an increase of 88%)

8. Downsizing

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)

9. The Shape of Water

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing an increase of 90%)

10. All the Money in the World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 22-25)

It was indeed a bustling Christmas weekend as some newbies rose above expectations while others fell considerably short. There were also impressive expansions of awards contenders.

Yet as anticipated, Star Wars: The Last Jedi easily took the top spot in weekend #2. However, it did so with numbers far short of my estimate. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise took in $99 million (well short of my $129 million estimate) for an overall tally of $395 million.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle gave Sony reason to celebrate with an estimated (final number still not in on Wednesday at noon for some reason) $55.4 million over the four-day. This tops my $40.5 million prediction. Since its Wednesday debut, Jungle has amassed $72 million (above my $55.1 million take). It would appear this franchise will continue on.

Pitch Perfect 3 opened in third to a decent $26.4 million. Still, that’s under my $33.6 million forecast and well under what its predecessor achieved two years ago.

Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman posted fourth with $14.4 million for the four-day and $19 million since its Wednesday start. These are a touch under my respective estimates of $16.1 million and $22.4 million. That’s a tad underwhelming, but I see it holding up well this weekend.

Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $11.2 million) for a $29 million overall tally.

Coco was sixth with $8.1 million (I said $8.8 million) as the Pixar flick has grossed $164 million total.

Debuting in seventh and quite disappointingly was Matt Damon’s Downsizing at just $7.6 million compared to my $11.7 million prediction. With mixed critical reaction and poor word-of-mouth, look for this to diminish fast.

Darkest Hour, which boasts Best Actor Oscar front-runner Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, was 8th as it expanded its theater count. It grossed $5.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 10.

Besides Downsizing, the other new flop of the weekend was Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. The poorly reviewed pic opened ninth at just $5.4 million (under my $8.6 million estimate).

The Shape of Water (another Oscar contender) took 10th as it opened wider with $4.4 million. Again, I missed the mark and had this outside the top 10.

And that does it for now, ladies and gents! It’s been quite a treat bringing you my box office predictions for 2017 and it will continue into 2018! Until then…

Box Office Predictions: December 22-25

Well, it’s Christmas week at the box office and that creates one busy time with FIVE new pictures debuting either Wednesday or Friday. They are: fantasy action reboot/sequel Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle with Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart, musical comedy sequel Pitch Perfect 3, Hugh Jackman’s musically inclined The Greatest Showman, Matt Damon’s sci-fi dramedy Downsizing, and Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. You can read my detailed prediction posts on them all here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/11/jumanji-welcome-to-the-jungle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/12/pitch-perfect-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/12/the-greatest-showman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/13/downsizing-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/14/father-figures-box-office-prediction/

It doesn’t end there. Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World, the well-publicized crime drama due to its recasting of Kevin Spacey debuts on Christmas Day (Monday). Its grosses will only factor in for its one day earnings this weekend. I’ll predict $3.2 million, which should put it outside the top 10.

And there are awards hopefuls expanding their theater counts. Both The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour are expected to do so. Either of them (especially Water) could factor into the top 10 based on the number of screens. However, I’m not including either (yet) without theater counts. I’ll revise my top 10 if they creep in.

As I see it, Jumanji is riding a wave of good buzz and decent reviews and I have it placing second. Pitch Perfect 3 is its most serious competitor and part 2 did totally unexpected numbers a couple of years back. I still have it third.

The rest of the top five could be filled with other newbies The Greatest Showman and Downsizing. The Christmas weekend often sees meager drops for holdovers, especially for family fare. That could benefit both Ferdinand and Coco. The former could stay in the top 5 depending on how Downsizing performs.

And then we get to Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which just had the 2nd highest domestic opening of all time (more on that below). Over the last two Christmas weekends, we’ve seen both Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story enter their sophomore weekends and experience drops in the high 30s. It’s worth noting that the Awakens dip was over a three-day weekend and not 2017’s four-day frame. I still foresee Jedi dwindling about 39% for what should easily be a return weekend atop the charts.

Whew. OK… and with that, my top 10 predictions for the four-day holiday frame:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $129 million (representing a drop of 41%)

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $40.5 million (Friday to Monday), $55.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

3. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $33.6 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (Friday to Monday), $22.4 million (Wednesday to Monday)

5. Downsizing

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

6. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 16%)

7. Coco 

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 12%)

8. Father Figures

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

9. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 14%)

10. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 11%)

**The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour screen counts could alter top ten on Thursday (12/21)

Box Office Results (December 15-17)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi had no trouble landing the second biggest opening ever behind its predecessor The Force Awakens. The eighth episode in the vaunted franchise took in $220 million, right on target with $219.7 million prediction. Disney should be ecstatic with this result. Jedi should easily top the box office for the foreseeable future.

The Jedi effect caused some newcomers and holdovers to fall below my estimates. Animated Ferdinand debuted in second with $13.4 million, under my $18.6 million projection. The good news? As seen above, it should experience a nice hold entering this weekend.

Coco was third with $9.9 million (I was a bit higher at $11.2 million) for $150 million total.

Wonder was in the four spot with $5.2 million (I said $4.9 million) to bring its earnings to $109 million.

Justice League rounded out the top 5 with $4.3 million (I said $4.2 million) for $219 million overall.

Daddy’s Home 2 was sixth with $3.8 million. I incorrectly held it outside the top 6. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg sequel has made $96 million and should easily cross the century mark this weekend.

Finally, I incorrectly had The Disaster Artist in my top 6, but it suffered a hefty decline and placed 8th with $2.7 million compared to my more generous $4.3 million. The James Franco pic stands at $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… and Merry Christmas from your trusty blogger!

 

Box Office Predictions: December 8-10

The second weekend of December at the box office may look similar to this past one with Pixar’s Coco atop the charts for the third time. Unlike this previous frame, there are some newcomers as the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones geriatric comedy Just Getting Started debuts and James Franco’s critically heralded The Disaster Artist greatly expands its theater count. You can peruse my Just Getting Started detailed prediction here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/29/just-getting-started-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Just Getting Started may be lucky to eek out a fifth place showing. The Disaster Artist could be a wild card, but if its estimated 800 screen expansion stands, I’ll put it at $4.2 million and outside the top 5. Should its theater count expand, so will my forecast for it.

All in all, it’s a rather quiet weekend. However, that won’t last long as Star Wars: The Last Jedi is on deck next weekend.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Just Getting Started

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Coco ruled the top spot again with $27.5 million, a bit ahead of my $25.2 million projection. The Pixar pic has taken in $110 million since its Thanksgiving release.

Justice League was second once again at $16.6 million (in line with my $16.8 million prediction) for a total of $197 million.

Wonder took third with $12.1 million (a bit below my $14.4 million calculation) for $87 million overall.

Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $9.8 million, topping my $7.7 million estimate for $291 million thus far.

Daddy’s Home 2 was fifth with $7.5 million (I was close at $7.1 million) for an $82 million overall gross.

Murder on the Orient Express was sixth with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and it’s made $84 million.

And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back Monday with full box office predictions for the following weekend and tomorrow I will post my detailed Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening weekend estimate!

Box Office Predictions: December 1-3

The December box office begins slowly with Thanksgiving/November leftovers sure to rule the charts. There are no new wide releases this weekend as Hollywood takes a breath to prepare for the would-be Christmas season blockbusters.

In other words, it’s a rather dull week. The post Turkey Day weekend is known for seeing holdovers have rather significant drops from the holiday frame that preceded it and that should hold true here. I don’t look for much change in the rankings as Pixar’s Coco should easily retain the top spot.

And with that, my top 6 predictions:

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

2. Justice League 

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 59%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok 

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Daddy’s Home 2 

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

Box Office Results (November 24-26)

As expected (especially after the disappointing opening of Justice League), Pixar’s Coco topped the Thanksgiving charts with $50.8 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend. Since its Wednesday start, it’s made $72.9 million. That’s a touch under my respective forecasts of $54.1 million and $74.6 million yet it’s still a solid debut for the studio as it looks to play well in the coming weekends. It stands an excellent chance at being the #1 picture for three weeks in a row before a certain other Disney property is unleashed on December 15th.

Justice League dropped to second with its continued less than anticipated earnings at $41 million, right on target with my $41.6 million projection. The DC pic has earned $171 million thus far and is on pace to be the lowest earner in its particular cinematic universe.

Wonder was third with $22.6 million. I was a tad higher at $25.4 million. Regardless, the sleeper hit has surpassed all expectations and taken in $69 million as it looks to join the $100 million club in the coming weeks.

Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $16.8 million, in line with my prediction of $16.2 million. The MCU hit has amassed $277 million.

Daddy’s Home 2 took the five-spot with $13.2 million, a tad ahead of my $11.9 million estimate for a total of $72 million.

Murder on the Orient Express was right behind in sixth with $13.1 million (I was lower at $10.8 million). The Kenneth Branagh mystery, which will have a sequel with his Poirot character returning, stands at $74 million.

The faith-based animated The Star was seventh in its sophomore frame with $6.9 million compared to my $8.6 million forecast for $22 million overall.

Finally, Denzel Washington’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. failed to impress, debuting wide in ninth with just $4.4 million (I said $5 million). With no awards buzz and middling buzz, expect it to fade quickly.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 24-26

It’s Thanksgiving week at the box office as Disney/Pixar’s Coco looks to reign supreme over the leftovers and Denzel Washington’s courtroom drama Roman J. Israel Esq. also expands nationwide. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/14/coco-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/19/roman-j-israel-esq-box-office-prediction/

My Coco estimate is likely to put it in the #1 spot over Justice League, due to the latter’s rather disappointing debut (more on that below). The #3 position should easily go to Wonder, which opened with great results this past weekend (more on that below as well).

The Thanksgiving weekend is traditionally one where holdovers experience smallish declines and I see that holding true for titles such as Thor: Ragnarok, Daddy’s Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express, and The Star. 

As for Denzel’s Roman, my $5 million prediction for it over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend puts it outside the top 7 I’m estimating today. And here they are…

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $54.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $74.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million (representing a drop of 8%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 25%)

5. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 18%)

6. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 22%)

7. The Star

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 12%)

Box Office Results (November 17-19)

Warner Bros. is dealing with some disappointment this weekend as Justice League suffered a lackluster opening. I had DC’s version of The Avengers nabbing the third highest premiere of 2017 with $128.4 million. However, it grossed well under forecasts with $93.8 million.

That debut is good for just the 8th largest of the year, about $10 million behind Wonder Woman, which wasn’t expected to make the bank that it did. It serves as the DC Cinematic Universe’s smallest opening thus far. That Wonder Woman sequel can’t come soon enough…

The other story of the weekend was the terrific debut of Wonder in second, which defied all expectations with $27.5 million (way above my meager $12.9 million forecast). With great word-of-mouth, expect the drama to perform well over the holiday weekend and for the next several weeks.

Thor: Ragnarok dropped to third after two weeks on top with $21.6 million (under my $25 million estimate) to bring its total to $247 million.

Daddy’s Home 2 was fourth in weekend #2 with $14.4 million (shy of my $15.9 million projection) for a $50 million overall tally.

In its sophomore weekend, Murder on the Orient Express was fifth with $13.8 million (I said $14.5 million) for $51 million total.

Debuting in sixth place was the faith-based animated pic The Star, which pretty much met expectations with $9.8 million (in line with $10.3 million prediction). It could benefit from low declines over Thanksgiving.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…