As July comes to a close, Oscar prognosticators received several bits of fascinating news this past week. The first was the lineup of the Venice Film Festival as well as the bulk of titles that will play in Toronto. That wild season (which also includes Telluride) is a mere month away. We will see a huge number of awards hopefuls being screened with long awaited buzz finally becoming clear.
Yet the biggest news is the (as yet unconfirmed) rumor that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not come out until 2023. Variety and Deadline essentially reported it as fact. I struggled all day with whether to include Killers in my updated predictions (I faced the same choices a couple of weeks ago with Rustin). My final decision was to drop it. If Killers ends up back on the 2022 calendar, Variety and Deadline have some explaining to do…
Another development is that Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives was released. While reviews were certainly decent, I don’t think they’re strong enough that it will be a true BP contender. It’s at #25 on my list.
The Killers announcement obviously means major changes in most of my lineups. Cannes fest winner Triangle of Sadness replaces it in my 10 BP picks while Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is in for Scorsese in Director. Adam Driver in the Venice opener White Noise replaces Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Hong Chau (The Whale) is now in Supporting Actress with Lily Gladstone out. And with Jesse Plemons dropping in Supporting Actor, that leaves room for Triangle‘s Woody Harrelson. Finally, She Said rises in Adapted Screenplay.
That’s not all, folks! There’s a new #1 in Best Picture! I’ve had Damien Chazelle’s Babylon ranked #1 from the beginning… until now. In order to find a BP winner that didn’t play at either Venice or Telluride or Toronto or Sundance or Cannes, you have to go all the way back to (ironically) Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. That was 16 years ago. Babylon could still sneak into Telluride. Yet I’m skeptical it will. This factoid alone is enough for me to vault Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans (premiering at Toronto) to the top spot.
I’m not finished yet with the #1 changes. The Son is now first in Adapted Screenplay since Killers has moved. And Ke Huy Quan rises to the pole position in Supporting Actor over Paul Dano from The Fabelmans.
Another alteration – Empire of Light falls out of Original Screenplay with The Banshees of Inisherin in as my likely lone screenplay nominee.
That’s a lot of movement in one week and you can peruse it all below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bardo (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (E)
15. Elvis (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (+3)
17. Broker (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Till (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Amsterdam (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 24) (+2)
23. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 25) (+2)
24. The Woman King (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Hirokazu Kore-eda, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Chinoye Chukwu, Till
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (E)
15. Emma Corrin, Lady Chatterley’s Lover (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (E)
13. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 14) (E)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Whoopi Goldberg, Till
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tar (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Broker (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Menu (PR: 11) (E)
12. Amsterdam (PR: 12) (E)
13. Bros (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. She Said (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bones and All (PR: 13) (+7)
7. Till (PR: 7) (E)
8 .The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Thirteen Lives (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Good Nurse (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Woman King (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Killers of the Flower Moon
Elvis
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